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In China, the one child policy caused significant damage to human capital and the economy. Communist party leaders boasted about eliminating 400 million people through forced abortion. This led to a massive loss of potential, as the most productive individuals were killed off. The consequences are evident in the 70 million empty apartment buildings and the absence of young men and women who would have started families. The forced abortions and sterilizations also caused immense suffering for women. The Chinese Communist Party, responsible for this tragedy, has essentially destroyed China's future. It took them until 2016 to realize the devastating impact of the policy.

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Do I have any money left? Basically, no. The company that I used to own, or maybe still do own, is in bankruptcy. If nothing had intervened, today it would have about $15 billion of liabilities and approximately $93 billion in assets.

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There's even more bad news as China's economy exposes a deeper problem in shadow banking. The shadow banking sector is estimated to be worth at least $3,000,000,000,000, and that's in China alone. And it all started with real estate. The country is facing a financial meltdown. Every week, there is a new headline about its impairments.

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At the end of World War II Asia and Europe were devastated, and the United States emerged as the last man standing, profiting hugely from the war. They ended up, due to isolation, the strongest economy in the world with more than half the world’s gold and half the world’s GDP, with standing industries that could shift from making tanks to making cars and trucks. They did extraordinarily well for a few decades, but then, as described, they began to financialize, and it became more profitable to speculate in investments than to actually invest. In recent years, companies with money often pursue share buybacks rather than expanding research and development or industrial capacity. We are in a stage where the underlying basis for markets is questionable: what are markets for, are they accurate at price discovery, and do they predict productive investment and returns on capital? We are in a transition phase where we’re not sure anymore. There is a huge bubble, and corporations creating these bubbles, with banks that loan money relying on the state because they are too big to fail. Bailouts have totaled trillions since 2008, as the US Federal Reserve, the European Central Bank, the Bank of England, and the Bank of Japan pumped trillions of dollars, with help from Gulf Cooperation Council countries to bail out banks in Britain, the United States, and Europe. It’s fascinating because China, since the financial crisis, has also created about 17 to 18 trillion dollars. China has actually been leading in creation of money, while investing that money in building 50,000 kilometers of high-speed rail, a space program, massive industries, and the Belt and Road initiative—real investment and so on. The enormous difference between the two is notable, but how far can states—the United States, Britain, the EU, and Japan—borrow and pump money into the market to keep this bubble going? We don’t know. Bubbles are hard to gauge in terms of expansion and when they break, which is why they can be sustained so long; the bursting of a bubble is painful, and no policymaker wants responsibility. China is interesting and is the only case in history of a property bubble being deflated without collapsing the real economy, deflating its property bubble over five or six years while the economy continued to grow—not at 8% but at 5%—and continued to expand. That is worth studying because other countries let property bubbles run until they burst, causing wider harm and deflation. Japan, for example, has had thirty years of zero growth since it began quantitative easing three decades ago, a growth killer because it protected existing companies, banks, and properties and never really recovered. Europe has had zero growth for about fifteen years since 2007. The United States sustains growth largely by buying it from the rest of the world—acquiring profitable companies or getting them to list on NASDAQ and then earning rents from profitable companies wherever they are—while the US economy has been largely hollowed out. It’s an interesting time to watch monetary dynamics, because this doesn’t go on forever.

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Speaker 1: Well, the intersection with the global financial crisis specifically is a wild story that to be truly told, you need to put the evidence on screen as well. But the short version is that he had a company called Liquid Funding Limited that was domiciled in The Bahamas that was partially owned by Bear Stearns. And Bear Stearns, you know, is where he had come up for a long time. And Liquid Funding Limited was selling CDOs, the same types of CDOs that eventually caused the global financial crisis. It was capitalized at, I believe, dollars 100,000,000 and allowed to sell $20,000,000,000 with a B of CDOs. Speaker 1: And I actually just was looking at that statistic earlier today because this is the craziest story. And that little CDO factory that Jeffrey Epstein was running tied into Bear Stearns. And if you recall, Bear Stearns was one of the, you know, the first to collapse, right? That shut down in the months directly preceding Bear Stearns starting to collapse. And Jeffrey Epstein redeemed all of those CDOs, all of those assets. Speaker 1: The terms are I don't know the technical terms for what he did. But basically, he made a run on the bank on those exact assets that were the exact problem. And he was tied into the exact bank that was financially distressed. And then he wound that whole company, Liquid Funding Limited, up and disappeared. And later, JPMorgan, the bank that he later worked with after, you know, Bear Stearns was his early banking career, and then he later was doing all of his money laundering and banking and referring of people at JPMorgan, They came in, swooped up Bear Stearns for pennies on the dollar. Speaker 1: They also later spun Liquid Funding Limited back up. There's a whole There's a very overt financial paper trail that Jeffrey Epstein was better acquainted with the problem than almost anyone in the world because he was deeply enmeshed in Bear Stearns and knew the leadership of Bear Stearns very well. And he understood CDOs, he was selling CDOs. And then he just so happens to wind his whole shop up and close it down and redeem it all right at the moment when things are about to go bust. So, that's a wild rabbit hole, and it's very interesting. Speaker 0: I mean, what is that? I mean, that suggests Well, it doesn't suggest it's like direct evidence of, if I'm assuming we can verify what you're saying, that the biggest events in the world are actually not quite as organic or accidental as we're led to believe and that, you know, this is like puppet master stuff. Mean, it is. I don't know what to say. I don't want this to be true, Speaker 1: but Speaker 0: that's what it looks

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Wealth manager Zhangji Enterprise filed for bankruptcy. "$64,000,000,000 in liabilities is what the company has flagged already." Zhangji says the liquidity is dried up, but the the amount that could be recovered from these asset disposals is expected to be low. And this is a little bit of a surprise for investors because they thought going back a few months, there was a government inquiry into this. They thought, well, maybe we'd be able to avoid liquidation, and, there would just be a little livestream put out to the company. But, no, bankruptcy is the case, and it looks like the investors in the company, the equity holders, are gonna lose about 75% of their cash.

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The Evergrande crisis in China is predicted to cause a chain reaction, leading to the collapse of domestic and international stock markets, financial institutions, and the entire financial system. The speaker suggests that the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) may resort to destructive measures, such as imprisoning people in their homes or causing harm. Additionally, they warn of a potential global virus outbreak. It is advised to be cautious and prepared.

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Mario interviews Professor Yasheng Huang about the evolving US-China trade frictions, the rare-earth pivot, Taiwan considerations, and broader questions about China’s economy and governance. Key points and insights - Rare earths as a bargaining tool: China’s rare-earth processing and export controls would require anyone using Chinese-processed rare earths to submit applications, with civilian uses supposedly allowed but defense uses scrutinized. Huang notes the distinction between civilian and defense usage is unclear, and the policy, if fully implemented, would shock global supply chains because rare earths underpin magnets used in phones, computers, missiles, defense systems, and many other electronics. He stresses that the rule would have a broad, not narrowly targeted, impact on the US and global markets. - Timeline and sequence of tensions: The discussion traces a string of moves beginning with US tariffs on China (and globally) in 2018–2019, a Geneva truce in 2019, and May/June 2019 actions around nanometer-scale chip controls. In August, the US relaxed some restrictions on seven-nanometer chips to China with revenue caps on certain suppliers. In mid–September (the period of this interview), China imposed docking fees on US ships and reportedly added a rare-earth export-control angle. Huang highlights that this combination—docking fees plus a sweeping rare-earth export control—appears to be an escalatory step, potentially timed to influence a forthcoming Xi-Trump summit. He argues China may have overplayed its hand and notes the export-control move is not tightly targeted, suggesting a broader bargaining chip rather than a precise lever against a single demand. - Motives and strategic logic: Huang suggests several motives for China’s move: signaling before a potential summit in South Korea; leveraging weaknesses in US agricultural exports (notably soybeans) during a harvest season; and accelerating a broader shift toward domestic processing capacity for rare earths by other countries. He argues the rare-earth move could spur other nations (Japan, Europe, etc.) to build their own refining and processing capacity, reducing long-run Chinese leverage. Still, in the short term, China holds substantial bargaining weight, given the global reliance on Chinese processing. - Short-term vs. long-term implications: Huang emphasizes the distinction between short-run leverage and long-run consequences. While China can tighten rare-earth supply now, the long-run effect is to incentivize diversification away from Chinese processing. He compares the situation to Apple diversifying production away from China after zero-COVID policies in 2022; it took time to reconfigure supply chains, and some dependence remains. In the long run, this shift could erode China’s near-term advantages in processing and export-driven growth, even as it remains powerful today. - Global role of hard vs. soft assets: The conversation contrasts hard assets (gold, crypto) with soft assets (the dollar, reserve currency status). Huang notes that moving away from the dollar is more feasible for countries in the near term than substituting rare-earth refining and processing. The move away from rare earths would require new refining capacity and supply chains that take years to establish. - China’s economy and productivity: The panel discusses whether China’s growth is sustainable under increasing debt and slowing productivity. Huang explains that while aggregate GDP has grown dramatically, total factor productivity in China has been weaker, and the incremental capital required to generate each additional percentage point of growth has risen. He points to overbuilding—empty housing and excess capacity—as evidence of inefficiencies that add to debt without commensurate output gains. In contrast, he notes that some regions with looser central control performed better historically, and that Deng Xiaoping’s era of opening correlated with stronger personal income growth, even if the overall economy remained autocratic. - Democracy, autocracy, and development: The discussion turns to governance models. Huang argues that examining democracy in the abstract can be misleading; the US system has significant institutional inefficiencies (gerrymandering, the electoral college). He asserts that autocracy is not inherently the driver of China’s growth; rather, China’s earlier phases benefited from partial openness and more open autocracy, with current autocracy not guaranteeing sustained momentum. He cites evidence that in China, personal income growth rose most when political openings were greater in the 1980s, suggesting that more open practices during development correlated with better living standards for individuals, though China remains not a democracy. - Trump, strategy, and global realignments: Huang views Trump as a transactional leader whose approach has elevated autocratic figures’ legitimacy internationally. He notes that Europe and China could move closer if China moderates its Ukraine stance, though rare-earth moves complicate such alignment. He suggests that allies may tolerate Trump’s demands for short-term gains while aiming to protect longer-term economic interests, and that the political landscape in the US could shift with a new president, potentially altering trajectories. - Taiwan and the risk of conflict: The interview underscores that a full-scale invasion of Taiwan would, in Huang’s view, mark the end of China’s current growth model, given the wartime economy transition and the displacement of reliance on outward exports and consumption. He stresses the importance of delaying conflict as a strategic objective and maintains concern about both sides’ leadership approaches to Taiwan. - Taiwan, energy security, and strategic dependencies: The conversation touches on China’s energy imports—especially oil through crucial chokepoints like the Malacca Strait—and the potential vulnerabilities if regional dynamics shift following any escalation on Taiwan. Huang reiterates that a Taiwan invasion would upend China’s economy and government priorities, given the high debt burden and the transition toward a wartime economy. Overall, the dialogue centers on the complex interplay of China’s use of rare-earth leverage, the short- and long-term economic and strategic consequences for the United States and its allies, and the broader questions around governance models, productivity, debt, and geopolitical risk in a shifting global order.

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Western financial institutions have invested heavily in China's real estate market, relying on fake data. The CCP's influence in Australia's economy through corrupt businesses poses a threat. The CCP controls the world financially, manipulating countries and individuals to serve its interests. China's economic collapse could lead to the downfall of the CCP and expose its wrongdoings.

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Speaker 0 questions systemic risk in the Chinese economy, referencing the 2008 financial crisis and the domino effect if a large bank fails. Speaker 1 says: 'the total amount of, the debt to the nonfinancial sector in China. It's about 370,000,000,000,000.' The shadow banking sector 'account for about 77% of it,' while 'The commercial bank themselves account for 65 percent' and are 'the backbone of the Chinese financial system.' Consequently, risk and losses may fall back to commercial banks as they are 'the lender to those shadow bank through those shadow bank to the to the developer child property developer and to the local government financing vehicle and also to some of those private enterprises with less than credit.' He adds that the 'market proport proport of the shuttle banking system to the formal banking system' signals risk; the Chinese government is 'unlikely to pay them out,' but will 'broker some of those SSLs and so on in restructuring.'

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Evergrande, the world's largest property developer, has gone bankrupt, causing an 8% drop in indexes. This is part of a larger issue in China, where all public or listed property developers are facing default bankruptcy. China's economy heavily relied on real estate for growth, but now the sector is collapsing after an unregulated climb. The situation is comparable to the US financial crisis, but with three and a half times more banking leverage. China's regulators are trying to protect individuals from short sellers, but the situation is expected to worsen.

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China's economic experiments in the nineteen eighties were largely successful. Its citizens began to make good money from the businesses they were setting up, and its cities began to grow as more people migrated from rural areas. But there wasn't enough housing to accommodate this influx, so the state began to make housing reforms. In 1988, it began to privatize and commercialize public housing, offering tenants the opportunity to buy their units at very low prices. In 1998, the government announced the end of public housing altogether. Whilst back in 1979, virtually no one owned their home in China, now 80 to 90% of households own their homes, with more than 20% of households owning more than one home. So where did it all go wrong?

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The speakers discuss the economic situation in China, suggesting that it is not as good as it appears. They mention issues with the stock market and real estate, claiming that everything is failing. They also mention rumors about the government and its control over the economy. The conversation touches on corruption and how the government takes money from private businesses. The speakers conclude that the Chinese government can hold individuals accountable at any time, regardless of their social status.

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Jack Ma, the billionaire founder of Alibaba (reportedly the "Amazon of China"), has vanished after criticizing the Chinese government. Ma, one of the richest men in the world, disappeared from public view. He is one of four Chinese billionaires who have mysteriously vanished.

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This isn't a recession. This isn't even a crisis in the traditional sense. What we're witnessing is the complete unraveling of the economic model that powered the world's second largest economy for four decades. And the West, we're completely unprepared for what comes next. For forty years, China's growth seemed unstoppable. Double digit GDP increases, gleaming cities rising from farmland, a manufacturing powerhouse that became the world's factory. Western corporations moved their supply chains there. Emerging markets tied their futures to Chinese demand. Everyone believed the twenty first century would belong to Beijing. But beneath the surface, something was fundamentally broken. The property sector that once drove 30% of China's economy has imploded. Evergrande, with its 300,000,000,000 in liabilities, was just the first domino. Country Garden followed, then China, South City. Now even state backed developers are failing.

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A skyscraper collapsed, resembling a controlled demolition. This was the third collapse of the day, similar to intentional demolitions. It seemed like a planned implosion, as the building was unstable due to a fire that had been burning since early morning. Dana Tyler is here with us.

Coldfusion

The FTX Disaster is Deeper Than you Think
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In a shocking turn of events, Sam Bankman-Fried, CEO of FTX, lost his entire fortune of $26 billion in a weekend. Once celebrated as a crypto prodigy, his empire was built on questionable practices involving a group of young associates in the Bahamas. After founding Alameda Research, which promised high returns, Sam used customer deposits for risky trades, leading to a catastrophic collapse. FTX, a major crypto exchange, faced scrutiny when it was revealed that much of its assets were tied to its own token, FTT, which lost value as the crypto market declined. A tweet from Binance CEO Chang Pang Zhao triggered a mass withdrawal from FTX, exposing its insolvency. As FTX filed for bankruptcy, over $1 billion in customer funds went missing, and the fallout affected numerous investors and companies. With investigations underway, Sam's political donations and potential corruption in U.S. regulatory oversight are under scrutiny, raising concerns about the future of cryptocurrency regulation.

Coldfusion

FTX Disaster - 7 Unbelievable Bankruptcy Discoveries
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Sam Bankman-Fried founded FTX, a crypto exchange valued at $37 billion, which collapsed amid allegations of fraud. New CEO John Ray III reported unprecedented failures in corporate controls, with chaotic asset management and minimal record-keeping. Key issues included a lack of board meetings, improper use of corporate funds for personal real estate, and misleading financial documents. FTX owes over $3 billion to its largest creditors, and class action lawsuits are underway against celebrity promoters. Investigations into potential government corruption involving SEC chair Gary Gensler are ongoing, while victims may struggle to recover their funds.

Coldfusion

China's Economy is in Bad Shape
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China, once on track to become the world's largest economy, now faces significant economic and political challenges. The real estate bubble, fueled by rapid urbanization and cultural pressures, has led to severe housing affordability issues, with many families pooling resources to buy homes. However, a slowdown in population migration and the government's three red lines policy on debt have triggered a crisis, exemplified by Evergrande's defaults and widespread mortgage strikes among homebuyers. Additionally, China's ambitious Belt and Road Initiative is becoming increasingly unprofitable, with many countries unable to repay debts. The zero-COVID policy has further exacerbated economic woes, leading to rising unemployment, particularly among youth, and civil unrest. As China's internal demand declines, global markets may feel the impact, especially in sectors reliant on Chinese imports. The interconnectedness of global economies means that a recession in China could lead to a worldwide slowdown, raising questions about the future of globalization and local production.

Coldfusion

US Banking Crisis: The Truth Behind The Disaster
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Silicon Valley Bank (SVB), ranked 20th in Forbes' "America's Best Banks" in February 2023, collapsed just weeks later, marking the largest bank failure since the 2008 financial crisis. Founded in 1983, SVB had over $209 billion in assets but faced a rapid decline due to poor risk management amid rising interest rates. The bank heavily invested in long-term bonds, which lost value as rates increased, leading to $15 billion in unrealized losses by late 2022. Panic ensued after SVB announced a $1.8 billion loss from selling bonds, prompting massive withdrawals and a stock plunge of nearly 60% in one day. With 97% of deposits exceeding the FDIC's $250,000 insurance limit, SVB was unable to recover, resulting in its closure by the FDIC on March 10, 2023. The fallout affected numerous tech startups reliant on SVB for operations, raising concerns about broader implications for the financial system and potential cascading failures among regional banks.

Coldfusion

How One Powerful Family Destroyed A Country
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Sri Lanka, once South Asia's most developed nation, is now in a severe economic crisis with $51 billion in debt, rampant inflation over 130%, and shortages of essential goods. The Rajapaksa family, who dominated politics for over a decade, is at the center of the crisis. Their governance saw initial growth but led to unsustainable debt and mismanagement, including a disastrous ban on fertilizer imports that collapsed food production. Protests erupted as citizens faced starvation and fuel shortages, culminating in the president fleeing amid public outrage. Sri Lanka is now seeking emergency loans to stabilize its economy, with the future uncertain.

Coldfusion

Inside China’s Property Collapse (Evergrande Disaster)
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In 1979, David Attenborough's inquiry to Deng Xiaoping about China's population led to the revelation of the one-child policy, resulting in significant demographic and economic challenges. Recently, China reported its first population decline in 60 years, with a record low birth rate. A data leak revealed the population was overcounted by 100 million, exacerbating issues in the real estate market, where Evergrande, once a leading developer, is now over $320 billion in debt. Evergrande's aggressive borrowing strategy and diversification into unprofitable sectors contributed to its collapse, impacting various industries and millions of citizens. The Chinese government faces pressure to stabilize the economy, but the long-term effects of this crisis could ripple globally, raising concerns about the future of China's real estate sector and its implications for the world economy.

Coldfusion

When Risk Taking Goes Too Far - The Archegos Collapse
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In 2021, Archegos Capital Management, led by Bill Huang, faced catastrophic losses, marking a significant cautionary tale in finance. Huang, once worth over $30 billion, utilized aggressive investment strategies, heavily borrowing to amplify his positions in stocks like Baidu and ViacomCBS. Despite his devout Christian beliefs, his approach lacked diversification and relied on risky total return swaps, allowing him to conceal his investments from banks. When stock prices fell, Huang refused to sell, leading to a panic among banks, resulting in over $10 billion in losses. This incident has sparked discussions on the need for stricter regulations for family offices, which hold substantial assets yet operate with minimal oversight.

Coldfusion

WeWork - The $47 Billion Disaster
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WeWork's rapid decline from a $47 billion valuation to near bankruptcy highlights systemic risks in its business model. Founded in 2010, WeWork capitalized on the co-working trend, securing $14.2 billion in funding from major investors like SoftBank. However, it struggled to turn a profit, operating more like a landlord than a tech company. The company's IPO preparations revealed significant losses, leading to a drastic valuation drop and the ousting of CEO Adam Neumann due to questionable financial practices and erratic behavior. Despite a $5 billion investment from SoftBank, WeWork faces a cash crunch and potential bankruptcy, raising concerns about the future of unicorn investments and the stability of financial markets.

Conversations with Tyler

Adam Tooze on our Financial Past and Future | Conversations with Tyler
Guests: Adam Tooze
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In a conversation between Tyler Cowen and historian Adam Tooze, they discuss the economic impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic compared to the Spanish flu of 1918-1919. Tooze notes that Western economies opted for costly lockdowns during the recent pandemic, a strategy not seen during the Spanish flu. He expresses skepticism about a V-shaped recovery today, citing the unique challenges posed by modern economies, including the reliance on face-to-face services and the effects of the pandemic on urban centers like New York. Tooze identifies the Chinese real estate sector, particularly companies like Evergrande, as a potential weak point in China's economy, alongside concerns about shadow banking. He emphasizes the importance of understanding the "weak hands" in financial markets, which could lead to instability if a financial crisis occurs. The discussion also touches on the liquidity of Treasury securities as a measure of market health and the potential for stagflation due to massive monetary expansion. Tooze highlights the vulnerabilities of emerging economies, particularly South Africa, Algeria, and Turkey, which face significant economic pressures exacerbated by the pandemic. He reflects on the historical context of the Weimar Republic, suggesting that the U.S. played a crucial role in stabilizing European politics during that era. The conversation concludes with Tooze discussing the complexities of economic nationalism in Hungary and the potential for future refugee crises in Europe, emphasizing the need for a cohesive response to these challenges.
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