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Speaker 0 and Speaker 1 discuss a historic shift in American public opinion regarding the Israel-Palestine conflict. - Speaker 1 notes that public opinion on who voters sympathize with shifted dramatically in the wake of the current war. In October 2023, Americans favored Israel by 48 points; now, they favor the Palestinians by 1 point. He says he reviewed polls since the question began in the 1980s and that this is the first time Palestinians lead on this question, marking a historic shift away from the Israeli position toward the Palestinians. - He emphasizes that the shift was led by Democrats, moving from Democrats favoring Israel by 26 points to Palestinians by 46 points, describing it as a roughly 70-point swing and stating that, for the first time ever, more Americans sympathize with the Palestinians over the Israelis. - Speaker 0 adds that the shift is “a first that I have seen in my lifetime” and credits independent media and journalists reporting from Gaza for bringing images to social media, including images of civilians and alleged Israeli actions. He asserts that without on-the-ground reporting, people wouldn’t have seen certain images, asserts that journalists were killed by the IDF, and claims those images contributed to waking people up. - He contends that APAC is panicking, citing a new ad and a rebranding as “America first,” and argues Israel has lost the media war and the narrative, including some conservative and evangelical support (referencing Charlie Kirk’s base). - Speaker 1 details a parallel shift within the Republican Party, noting a significant age-based divide. Among Republicans over 50, they sympathize with Israel by 66 points; among those under 50, they sympathize with the Palestinians by 25 points. This creates about a 40-point gap, with younger Republicans leaning more toward the Palestinians than older Republicans. - Speaker 0 adds that Israel has hired pro-Israel influencers—paid about $7,000 per post—targeting the youth to reel back pro-Israel sentiment in the conservative youth vote. He notes these influencers were primarily young, implying a deliberate strategy to mobilize younger voters, while older voters are less in need of such outreach. - The speakers conclude that this combination of media exposure, shifts in party and demographic alignments, and targeted influencer campaigns constitutes a broad, historic realignment in American attitudes toward the conflict.

86% of Americans believe Biden is too old for another term, leaving only 14% in support, likely his family. Biden should have committed to a one-term presidency, allowing the Democrats to explore other candidates. His age and performance have hurt public perception. The Democratic machine is considering alternatives, as Biden has lost support from key allies, including the media. His reelection strategy is faltering, with concerns about Attorney General Merrick Garland's investigation into Trump not yielding results before the election. Biden is frustrated that his age-related issues are being discussed publicly and is blaming Garland for not acting sooner. Investigators are demanding the release of a video showing Biden's memory lapses, raising questions about his fitness for office.

The discussion centers on a leaked document detailing private international focus groups and surveys funded by the Israeli Ministry of Foreign Affairs (MFA) to test messaging for Israel after the war and to regain international legitimacy. The project included 15 focus groups (six in the United States, three in the United Kingdom, Germany, and France each), plus quantitative testing with 8,050 interviews (3,250 in the US, 1,200 in the UK, Germany, France, and Spain) as a baseline, and animatic testing with 5,600 interviews (4,000 in the US and 1,600 in the UK and Europe) to test specific messages, tone, and delivery. The aim is to determine how to shift global perceptions of Israel and avoid further isolation. The document, attributed to the Stagwell Group (Mark Penn’s firm) and the MFA, shows substantial investment in audience research, including focus groups and telephone interviews, to identify levers that could move public opinion from current baseline views toward greater international legitimacy for Israel. A striking takeaway cited is a recommendation to ramp up Islamophobia in messaging, arguing that when Israel is compared to Iran or Hamas, people tend to prefer Israel. The research also surveyed European attitudes toward Muslim immigrants and found underlying hostility in parts of Europe, which the MFA’s messaging strategy suggests Israel should lean into by contrasting itself with Hamas and Iran as standing up against a perceived threat. Key findings highlighted include: - International attitudes toward Israel are consistently worse in Europe (UK, France, Spain) than in the US, with Spain showing particularly negative views. Most Europeans support the Palestinians, except in Germany where support for Israel is stronger, though they recoil against both Hamas and Iran. - When Israel is compared to Hamas or Iran, Israel polls relatively better; when asked to choose between Palestinians and Israelis, Palestinians generally win, especially among younger cohorts. - The juxtaposition Israelis versus Palestinians is more favorable to Israel in the US than in Europe. In Europe (UK, France, Spain) there is greater favorability toward the Palestinians, while Germany and the US show more favorability toward Israel. - Youth attitudes show a shift: Gen Z in the UK and Germany are more likely to support Palestinians over Israel, with stark percentages (e.g., UK Gen Z 65-35, Germany Gen Z 63-37; in Spain, a near-universal tilt toward Palestinians). - Page-level cross-national comparisons show the most powerful countries (US, Germany) still leaning toward Israel, while the least powerful (Spain) lean toward the Palestinians. Gen Z across European countries shows increasing Palestinian support relative to older cohorts. - The document also notes misperceptions about casualty figures in Gaza: Spaniards 40,000; French 30,000; British 25,000; Germans and Americans 10,000. It also asks respondents whether those killed were mostly Hamas terrorists or civilians, with a majority in all regions believing civilians were mostly killed, including the US being the lowest but still majority civilian casualties believed. - If actual casualty numbers are higher than perceived, Israel believes attitudes could shift; the research tracks what people think about who was killed to anticipate messaging impact. Additional context: - The MFA’s Hasbara efforts have received substantial funding since October 7, fueling this extensive research program. - The document discusses potential post-war strategies, including the controversial idea of elevating ISIS-linked groups (Abu Shabab) to portray Hamas as more moderate, thereby arguing that no partners for peace exist and reshaping regional narratives—though this raises concerns about long-term consequences. - The discussion notes that the research was leaked and was originally intended to remain private, with the Commission of the Israeli MFA funding this line of propaganda-adjacent work. The conversation concludes with reflections on how the tone and content of messaging may evolve, acknowledging that some strategies may not move the US as much as other audiences, and noting the potential for a new chapter in the propaganda effort.

We have a generational issue with young people supporting Israel less. We need to address this quickly. The divide is not left vs. right but young vs. old. The language used by activists has shifted towards Iranian propaganda. We must act fast to counter this trend.

Kamala Harris is delivering contrasting messages to different voter groups regarding the Gaza-Israel conflict. In Michigan, she emphasizes the suffering in Gaza, stating, "We cannot allow ourselves to become numb to the suffering." Conversely, in Pennsylvania, she asserts her unwavering support for Israel's right to defend itself, referencing the October 7 attacks by Hamas. This dual messaging highlights the challenge her campaign faces in appealing to diverse constituencies with opposing views. Notably, an ad targeting Jewish voters omits part of her speech that discusses the situation in Gaza, which has drawn criticism. Republicans are also leveraging this issue to undermine her support among voters.

Poll numbers show Joe Biden's presidency is viewed more negatively than Donald Trump's. 46% of voters say Biden's presidency has been mostly bad, while only 25% say it has been mostly good. This trend is reflected in swing state polls as well. Voters seem nostalgic for Trump's presidency and are leaning towards supporting him in the upcoming election. Kellyanne Conway, a Fox News contributor and former White House chief of staff, believes voters are feeling less prosperous, safe, and fair under Biden's leadership compared to Trump's.

Hispanic voters overwhelmingly trust Donald Trump over Biden on border security and immigration, with a 49% to 24% margin. Despite traditionally supporting Democrats, recent polls show Biden only slightly ahead among Hispanic voters, the smallest margin in history. There is no backlash against Trump's remarks, and it is unlikely to change.

In a recent interview, the president was asked about his low job approval ratings and questioned the reliability of polling these days. The White House spokesperson responded by saying they focus on the president's accomplishments rather than polls. However, when it comes to domestic policy initiatives, they claim that polls show support for the president's agenda. The question is whether only certain polls that align with their agenda are considered valid. The spokesperson was also asked about polls showing that President Biden has been stuck with low approval ratings for two years, as well as polls indicating that the electorate and significant majorities within the Democratic Party believe he is too old and don't want him to run again. The White House was asked if they challenge the accuracy of these dismal polls.

President Biden's actions regarding the Hunter Biden probe have been deemed inappropriate by the majority of Americans, with 55% expressing this view. Among Democrats, 24% share the same sentiment, while 52% of independents and 90% of Republicans also believe his actions were inappropriate. The lack of pushback from the White House and absence of a public relations defense for Hunter Biden has allowed this perception to extend beyond the right-wing echo chamber.

Joe Biden's approval ratings are low across various areas, including the economy, immigration, and the border. He is facing some of the worst polling numbers for an incumbent president since Jimmy Carter.

Undecided voters likely don't interpret Joe Biden's comments as referring to half the country negatively. Many recognize that Biden, at 81, sometimes struggles with clarity, which impacts his candidacy. The Republican party is trying to leverage this situation to distract from past rhetoric that upset Puerto Ricans, particularly in Pennsylvania, where there are 450,000 Puerto Rican voters. However, this tactic may not be effective, as voters are aware of Biden's true intentions and the context of his statements.

President Biden's approval rating has dropped to 39%, according to a CNN poll. A majority of 58% believe that his policies have worsened the country's economic conditions. Concerns about his mental and physical capabilities are also raised. It is worth noting that during the 2020 election cycle, CNN polls consistently showed Joe Biden receiving a higher share of the vote than Donald Trump. This presents a significant contrast to the current situation. The implications of these findings remain to be seen.

Nationally, only 7% of voters feel enthusiastic, and 19% are satisfied, while 72% express dissatisfaction or anger. When asked about America's future, 61% believe the best days are ahead, while 34% think they are in the past. President Biden's approval rating stands at 41%, with 58% disapproving of his performance. The high dissatisfaction raises questions about whether voters will direct their frustration towards Kamala Harris or Donald Trump. Given the current political climate, it seems challenging for Harris to win, as she is part of the Biden administration, which has low approval ratings. If she manages to win despite these numbers, it would indicate she has successfully distanced herself from the administration's issues.

President Biden's job approval rating is currently at 40%, the lowest it has ever been in our poll. This marks a significant decline from earlier this year when he was almost even. The disapproval rate stands at 57%. The numbers are particularly concerning when broken down by party affiliation. More than two-thirds of independents disapprove, which is not favorable for an incumbent president. Additionally, only 7% of Republicans approve of Biden's job performance, while 21% of Democrats disapprove. To have a successful reelection campaign, Biden will need more unified support within his own party.

Polling indicates that support for Israel in the United States is divided by age, not political affiliation. Young people are expressing shockingly high levels of support for the Hamas massacre being justified. There is a Gen Z and TikTok problem that requires immediate attention from the Jewish community. Activist groups like Students for Justice in Palestine and Jewish Voice for Peace adopted Iranian propaganda-like language rapidly after October 8th, with toolkits referencing "Zionist entities." This shift suggests a deeper issue involving Iran's propaganda infiltrating American activism, differing from previous interactions with groups like NIAC. The focus should be on the younger generation and the influence of Iranian narratives.

Hispanic voter support for Biden has dropped from 59% to 45%, with Trump at 39%. Among Black voters under 50, Biden's lead has decreased from 80 to 37 points. Despite forgiving $144 billion in student loans, only 36% of debt holders approve. Biden has also lost 8% support from women since 2020. Despite these declines, recent polls show him ahead.

A recent CBS poll shows that President Biden's approval rating among young people has dropped from 70% to below 50%. This decline could be attributed to concerns about climate change and student loan debt, which are important issues for young people. The administration acknowledges the challenge of effectively communicating their efforts to address these concerns. However, they believe that their work is still popular among many people.

There is a major generational problem regarding support for Israel in the United States. Polling shows that it is not a left-right divide, but rather a divide between young and old. Shockingly, a high number of young people justified the recent massacre. This highlights a problem with TikTok and Gen Z that our community needs to address urgently. We have been focusing on the wrong divide between left and right. The real issue lies with the next generation and how they are falling in line with Hamas and their accomplices. Activists in America dramatically changed their language on October 8th, aligning with Iranian propaganda. This shift was swift and concerning.

The mood in the U.S. is largely negative, with only 7% of voters feeling enthusiastic and 19% satisfied. A significant 72% express dissatisfaction or anger. When asked about America's future, 61% believe the best days are ahead, while 34% think they are in the past. President Biden's approval rating stands at 41%, with 58% disapproving of his performance. The discussion highlights the challenges facing Kamala Harris and Donald Trump, as both are tied to the current administration's low approval ratings. Overcoming this dissatisfaction would require Harris to position herself as part of the solution rather than the problem.