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And part of what we also saw was that particularly with middle and lower income consumers, they're feeling under a lot of pressure. I think there's a lot of, you know, commentary about what's the state of the economy, how's it doing, and and what we see is it's really kind of a two tier economy. If you're upper income earning over a $100,000, things are good. What we see with middle and lower income consumers is actually a different story. In our industry, traffic for lower income consumers is down double digits, And it's because people are either choosing to skip a meal, so we're seeing breakfast. Or they're choosing to just eat at home.

It looks like a normal nice day. But Jim, a big investor, decides to start selling because he feels bearish. Maybe he came across a black cat on the way to work. Who knows? Bill and Sarah take notice. When they don't know what's going on, they don't stick around to find out who's the Paxi. So they start selling too. More investors notice and more selling follows. The result, prices keep falling, consumers lose wealth and confidence, businesses stop hiring, demand evaporates, and suddenly the whole economy is in shambles. Selling in fear of a weak economy impacted the environment and became a self fulfilling prophecy. This is why financial markets are prone to booms and busts that don't have to start with a crisis, but can cause one.

The economy is facing serious issues despite record high stock markets. A recession was projected for late 2023, and while government spending temporarily boosted the economy, real wage growth is down 2%, reminiscent of past election years during recessions. The current economic indicators suggest an impending crisis, with manipulated statistics masking the reality. Although Wall Street remains optimistic for now, signs point to increased volatility and widening credit spreads soon. Historical patterns indicate that easy money leads to fraud, and the current situation mirrors past economic collapses. If Trump takes office, his policies may mitigate some pain, but significant challenges lie ahead as the truth about the economy becomes apparent.

Do you personally expect a recession? I am gonna defer to my economists at this point, but I think probably that's a likely outcome. I always remind people markets aren't always right, but sometimes they are right. I think this time they are right because they're just pricing uncertainty at the macro level and uncertainty at the micro level at the actual company level. and then how it affects consumer sentiment, it's hard to tell. You know, consumers still have jobs. Wages are going up the low end, which I think is a good thing. But if companies start cutting back, yeah, the consumer sentiment changes and business sentiment changes. You know, I think you've already seen business sentiment change a little bit. Hopefully, you know, no one's wishing for that, but, you know, hopefully, if there is one, it'll be short.

Consumer confidence remains low due to a significant drop in real income post-pandemic, causing Americans to feel behind. Private sector income, excluding government aid, is crucial for sustainable gains. Real private income has fallen short of pre-pandemic levels, impacting consumer outlook. The consistent decline in real income growth has led to a decrease in birth rates, reflecting diminished confidence in future financial stability. Despite stock market gains, Americans feel economically strained, evident in declining birth rates, signaling long-term economic challenges.

The Dow Jones is down 1010 points, fueling recession fears. Inflation is up 21%, real wages down 2%. Joblessness increased over half a percent since January, signaling a possible recession. Tech giants like Microsoft, Alphabet, Meta, Amazon, and Apple are all down. Criticism is directed at policies stoking inflation and benefiting corporations at the expense of workers. The current stock market turmoil reflects long-standing economic struggles. This is attributed to "Bidenomics," which is proudly supported. Translation: The stock market is plummeting, raising concerns about a recession. Inflation is high, wages are low, and joblessness is increasing. Tech companies are experiencing significant losses. Policies favoring corporations over workers are criticized. The economic challenges are linked to the current administration's economic approach, known as "Bidenomics."

Sean Rein, author and founder/managing director of the China Market Research Group, discusses China’s current dynamics, opportunities, and global context with Glenn. Rein argues that China in 2026 is fundamentally different from China in 2016, with real estate, consumer confidence, and demographics as central challenges, but also with strong opportunities driven by indigenous innovation and a rapid reorientation toward self-reliance. On current challenges, Rein highlights real estate weakness as the primary concern: housing prices in top cities have fallen 30–40%, with slower property turnover and anemic transaction volumes. He distinguishes China’s situation from a US-style financial crisis, noting most homeowners have substantial mortgage equity (50–100% down) so there is no systemic panic selling. The result is stagnation rather than collapse, with consumer anxiety suppressing spending and delaying entrepreneurship. This consumer reticence, compounded by a large household savings stock (~$20 trillion) and a shrinking willingness to spend, threatens longer-term demographic goals (lower birth rates, delayed or avoided marriage) and complicates future growth. On opportunities, Rein emphasizes China’s shift toward indigenous innovation and self-reliance, a pivot that began under the Trump era’s sanctions regime and has intensified since. He argues that Chinese companies are now prioritizing technology—AI, semiconductors, NEVs, and broader green tech—alongside agriculture and food supply diversification (beef, soybeans, blueberries) to reduce exposure to Western import controls. He notes that Western observers often misread China’s trajectory due to outdated information from observers who left China years ago. He cites strong performance in Chinese equities (second-best global performance after Korea, up ~30% in a recent period) and asserts that Chinese tech firms (e.g., Alibaba, Baidu) are rapidly advancing, challenging passive stereotypes of China as merely a copycat. Rein also contends that China’s universities and talent pools are rising in global rankings, and that China’s approach to innovation now blends capital, government support, engineering talent, and an ecosystem that can outpace Western models that rely more on venture capital dynamics. On geopolitics and global leadership, Rein argues China is a natural partner with the United States, more so than with Russia, and that Western framing of China as an adversary is outdated. He contends that China’s strategy includes self-reliance in critical tech and a diversified supply chain—reducing vulnerability to sanction regimes by building internal capabilities and alternate sources. In energy and resources, China remains dependent on imports for oil (notably Iran as a major supplier) and is actively expanding renewables (wind, solar) and nuclear power, while securing strategic reserves to stabilize prices. He notes Europe as a potential beneficiary if it pursues reciprocity and deeper integration with Chinese markets, suggesting joint ventures and non-tariff barriers to ensure fair access for European firms, and criticizing European policymakers for hampering Chinese investment and technology transfer. On the US-China trade war, Rein calls tariffs a total failure overall, citing sectoral shifts in sourcing (China-plus-one strategies) but noting that costs often remain lower with Chinese imports due to tariff carve-outs and exceptions. He emphasizes that global supply chains have adapted to diversify away from single sources (China, the US, Brazil, Argentina, Taiwan, Vietnam), but asserts China still holds disproportionate leverage in critical areas like rare earths, refining, and certain energy and mineral markets. He argues that America’s coercive tools have backfired in many respects, and that Europe’s leverage lies in pragmatic, reciprocal relationships with both powers. Near-term outlook, Rein expects China to continue focusing on raising the quality of life for the large middle and lower-middle class, expanding access to health care and education, and creating a moderately prosperous society. He suggests that true wealth creation in China will come from within the middle 80–90% of the population, while a comparatively smaller elite may see gains in education and health services. He also notes that for individuals seeking the most dramatic financial upside, the United States (e.g., Austin, Silicon Valley) remains a more fertile landscape. As for his personal work, Rein promotes his book, The Finding the Opportunities in China and the New World Order, and mentions active presence on Twitter and LinkedIn, with possible future podcasting.

The first speaker warns of an international disaster and a potential World War III scenario, explaining that national gasoline could move toward roughly $3.50 to $3.70 a gallon if disruptions persist over the next week. They frame this as how the war starts showing up in family budgets and note that Box News reports the US economy lost 92,000 jobs in February. The second speaker introduces a Box News Alert: the US economy did not add jobs in February; it lost 92,000 jobs, with unemployment ticking up to 4.4%. The first speaker says the Labor Department tried to soften the data by pointing to strike activity, winter weather, seasonal factors, and post-Christmas effects, but argues those factors aren’t enough. They contend the real problem is the timing: a weaker labor market paired with a war-driven energy shock, which could revive stagflation fears and prompt markets to reassess. They point to one of the worst weeks in months for global bond markets and say traders worry the energy-driven inflation crisis will keep central banks more hawkish for longer. They reference the Cleveland Fed president suggesting a policy shift toward holding rates longer, with future rate cuts already sliding as markets brace for energy costs to feed into inflation data. The first speaker emphasizes that energy is central because higher oil affects more than oil itself: it flows into trucking, food, airfare, home building and real estate, appliances, freight, fertilizer, utility bills, and everything related to growing, moving, cooling, heating, packaging, and delivering goods. They claim it’s not theoretical and note that companies are already warning about rising costs across supply chains. They state that air and sea corridors through the Gulf have been dramatically disrupted. The speakers highlight an underreported angle: a viral Fox News Weekend segment in which hosts asserted that they have already beaten Iran, listing claims of how they are winning.

You hear me talk about purchasing power because that's what really matters. You can have trillions of dollars like I do in this Zimbabwe note, and I can't even buy eggs with it. So this is the most current purchasing power data from the Federal Reserve. And what you see is since 2020, they wonder why consumer sentiment is so bad and consumer confidence is so bad. This is why. Because your dollars buy less and less and less. But what happens when we get to zero? Because the level of plummet has sped up since 2020. This is not a big surprise for anybody that's paying attention on our very rapid march towards zero. What happens when we hit zero, guys? Zimbabwe, Venezuela, Argentina, all those 4,800 currencies that do not exist anymore. That's what happens, and we are very, very close.

Real estate is very slow in Des Moines, Iowa, and agents can't explain why. The speaker says people in trucking and other industries report it's the slowest they've ever been. After posting a video about this, the speaker received many messages from people across the country saying the same thing: business is extremely slow. The speaker questions how this aligns with the stock market hitting records. Despite high prices, high rates, and the declining value of money, the stock market is thriving. The speaker is considering pulling all their money out of stocks, fearing a major crash is coming soon due to the current chaos and record stock market highs.

The speaker notes a recent news story claiming the stock market was experiencing its worst April since the Great Depression. However, ten days later, the Nasdaq is reportedly up for the month. The speaker finds it notable that there hasn't been a corresponding story highlighting the market's rebound. The speaker believes the media is driving market perceptions.

Japan, with only 2% of the world's population, could disrupt the entire world. Recent growth data shows Japan's economy has taken a step back. The country's three biggest auto industry names announced disappointing numbers and warned of rough waters ahead. Rice prices in Japan remain stubbornly high, causing consumers to struggle to afford food. The government has had limited success fixing the problem. Japan could increase interest rates in other countries, crash stock portfolios globally, and potentially trigger the next global recession.

Energy costs and gasoline prices are way down. Grocery costs are also coming down, and the country is finally getting costs under control. No one wants to talk about it because the news is so positive. The price of eggs has plummeted by 50%, but no one has written about it yet.

The job market is showing signs of decline, with rising unemployment, falling wages, and longer job searches. Job openings have decreased by 800,000, missing expectations by over half a million. The government's numbers are not reflecting the true state of the economy, as many Americans have dropped out of the workforce due to early retirement or government benefits. The Federal Reserve's decision to raise rates could be a mistake, leading to a weaker economy and potential repercussions. It is important to monitor these developments closely.

Some people feel good about the economy, while others feel bad. Shelley believes that groceries and gas prices have increased compared to previous years. Despite low unemployment rates, higher wages, easing inflation, and a thriving stock market, she disagrees that these factors are positively impacting her day-to-day life. Another person, who retired three years ago, shares that they are not benefiting from the stock market's success and had to dip into their retirement savings due to the current economic situation. They feel they are not earning the same amount of money as before.

Inflation has steadily cooled over the past two years despite seeing a slight stall in October and November 2024. Prices for items like gasoline, used cars, and energy have declined accordingly. But food prices continue to outpace inflation, increasing by 28% since 2019. Eighty six percent of consumers reported feeling frustrated with rising grocery prices, and over a third said they have resorted to buying fewer items to save money. That's one of the real gauges people have of their cost of living because it's an important aspect of their cost of living, and it's something that we have a lot of exposure to. We go to the grocery store. We pick up the different products. We look at the prices.

The speaker reflects on a recent conversation with Tucker and says there were things left unsaid that they would have liked to address more directly. They wish they had been more critical of current fiscal and monetary policy and had warned about a coming crisis more clearly. They feel the discussion didn’t go deep enough in this area, perhaps due to the direction of the conversation. They note that the interview spent a lot of time on gold, but not enough on why they believe gold will rise significantly in the future. There was also discussion of Bitcoin, but not as much focus as they would have preferred. The speaker spent a lot of time talking about the banking system and wanted to get out there the story of the bank, and to highlight corruption in the US government. However, they believe what is most relevant to the public is the corruption that will destroy their standard of living and the lies being told daily by the media, the government, the Trump administration, and the Federal Reserve. The speaker points to Donald Trump’s approval ratings on the economy as a notable indicator, describing them as at a record low. They argue this is significant because, despite the economy being touted as a strength, the public perceives otherwise. The speaker asserts that people know the economy is bad because of their own experiences, regardless of what is said on television. They reference the personal financial pressure that many face: a stack of bills they cannot pay, little to no savings, rising prices, and no relief in sight. In summary, the speaker expresses regret over not conveying a more critical view of economic policy and a stronger warning about an impending crisis, and laments that the conversation did not fully address why assets like gold should rise, or delve into Bitcoin as much as desired. They emphasize that the most consequential issues for the public are the alleged corruption affecting living standards and the harsh economic realities faced by ordinary people, which they believe contrast with the political and media narratives being presented. The overall message highlights a disconnect between what is publicly claimed about the economy and what people experience in their daily finances.