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In 1959, Europe restored monetary sanity convertibility, but the US started running large balance of payments deficits. Bretton Woods established a system where all currencies were convertible to the dollar and the dollar to gold. However, instead of settling deficits in gold, foreign central banks could use dollars as official reserves. This allowed the US to buy abroad and at home simultaneously, leading to a buildup of dollar reserves. In 1971, when countries like Britain wanted to redeem their dollar reserves for gold, President Nixon refused. Without convertibility, Europe couldn't lecture the US about its budget. The 1960s saw financial crises involving the dollar, and in 1971, Nixon declared that the US wouldn't pay its debts in gold.

The US dollar is the bedrock of the world's financial system, and a rapidly rising dollar can destabilize financial markets. Despite the US printing many dollars, global demand is so high that the supply isn't enough, preventing rising US inflation. The risk comes when other economies slow down relative to the US. With less economic activity, fewer dollars circulate globally, increasing the price as countries chase them to pay for goods and service debts. This creates a "dollar milkshake" effect, forcing countries to devalue their currencies as the dollar rises. The US becomes a safe haven, sucking in capital and further increasing the dollar's value, potentially leading to a sovereign bond and currency crisis. Central banks may try to intervene, but the momentum can become unstoppable. The world is stuck with the dollar underpinning the global financial system, so everyone needs to pay attention to the dollar milkshake theory.

Bretton Woods emerged during wartime when the United States leveraged its position to shape a new monetary system centered on the US dollar. At the Bretton Woods Conference, 44 states signed off on a treaty that bound postwar nations to using the dollar as the principal currency for world settlements, with the dollar fixed to gold at 35 dollars per ounce. This Gold-vanilla dollar standard created confidence that every dollar was worth a specific amount of gold, effectively anchoring global finance to gold and supporting widespread use of the dollar. The arrangement worked reasonably well for a period, but the United States’ domestic and foreign actions—driven by frequent wars and large domestic spending—made fiscal conditions unstable. By the 1970s, the US was engaged in Vietnam and expanding welfare, Medicare, and other social reforms alongside massive infrastructure spending, which generated substantial debt. As debt grew, other countries questioned the productivity of that spending and began to worry about accumulating more debt. France, Italy, Germany, and Britain sought gold in exchange for surplus dollars. The US sometimes accepted, but not uniformly; notably, the governor of the German Bundesbank committed never to ask for gold again, while other nations pressed for gold or alternatives. The system’s stability eroded as countries contemplated how to avoid reliance on the dollar. In 1971, Richard Nixon unilaterally suspended the exchange of dollars for gold, after weekend discussions with advisers, effectively ending the gold convertibility of the dollar and establishing fiat currencies not fixed to gold or to the dollar. The transition produced a volatile period with few established foreign exchange mechanisms, leaving the world in a more unsettled monetary environment. To stabilize the system, Henry Kissinger and Treasury officials pursued a new anchor by tying the dollar to a globally demanded commodity: oil. The idea was that oil would create sustained demand for the dollar. Following this, the United States and allied nations promoted the policy that oil would be sold in dollars, and many Middle Eastern producers aligned with this arrangement. Leaders of some oil-producing countries faced severe consequences for resisting the dollar-based system: for example, Saddam Hussein and Muammar Gaddafi sought to sell oil in currencies other than the dollar and faced significant repercussions, including their deaths and the occupation of oilfields by American forces when necessary. This dollar-oil linkage functioned as a mechanism to stabilize the post-gold monetary order but drew increasing criticism for coercive and violent measures to maintain the system, contributing to growing global interest in moving away from dollar dependence.

We're diving into the timeline of our civilization, questioning the mainstream narrative that everything—cars, planes, money—originated within the last 300 years. Currencies worldwide, like the US dollar (1792) and the British pound (1707), all started around this time. It's suspicious that before the 1700s, there's a gap, yet we're told magnificent palaces were built. I think our civilization as we know it, began around 1700, complete with governments, banks, and a massive population spike. It's like technology was given back to us. AI, for example, might be older than we're led to believe. This explains the presence of buildings that don't fit our supposed timeline, hinting at a more advanced, global civilization that existed before.

Speaker 0 argues that it's the beginning of the end of the monetary system as we know it. It's not just the US dollar; it's fiat monetary currencies in general. They note that the UK, the euro, Japan, and China have similar debt problems and share interrelationships, which is the reason central banks are choosing gold. The implication is that these dynamics are driving a shift toward gold as a preferred reserve asset. Speaker 0 emphasizes that gold has always been the main currency and identifies it as the only non-fiat currency—meaning it is not the currency that can be printed. This point is presented as foundational to the argument about why gold is being selected in the current environment by major financial actors. Building on that assertion, Speaker 0 asserts that central banks are moving toward gold, and sovereign wealth funds are likewise moving toward gold. This movement is described as the nature of the shift occurring within the monetary system. In other words, the combination of widespread fiat debt concerns among major economies and the longstanding status of gold as a non-fiat currency is depicted as driving a broad realignment in reserve preferences and asset holdings. The overall claim is that the monetary system is undergoing a transformative change driven by debt-related pressures across major economies and the comparative stability or non-fiat status of gold. The speaker links the observed behavior—central banks and sovereign wealth funds increasing gold allocations—to this larger shift, framing it as part of a systemic evolution rather than as isolated actions. In summary, Speaker 0 contends that the current moment marks a fundamental transition away from fiat currencies toward gold, driven by debt problems across major economies and the historical role of gold as the main and non-fiat currency, with central banks and sovereign wealth funds moving to gold as part of this shift.

The transcript presents a sweeping critique of the modern monetary system, arguing that money is created not by governments but by private banks through debt, with consequences that affect the entire world. The speakers outline a long historical arc in which banking interests, central banks, and debt-based money have steadily gained power, eroded public sovereignty, and produced recurring crises, while the general population bears the costs. Key claims and points - The root problem: The money supply is created by the community of money users through borrowing from commercial banks. The bulk of money creation originates with banks, which decide when and how much money to produce, leading to an out-of-control system. Governments borrow money from banks, which effectively enslaves the broader economy. - Concept of the debt-money system: The money system is described as a global Ponzi scheme, in which new money comes into existence as debt with interest. Because interest must be paid, the system requires ever more debt to be sustained, and people and nations are drawn into a cycle that benefits banks at the expense of the public. - Historical pattern of private control: The narrative traces a long history in which private banking families (notably the Rothschilds, Rockefellers, and Morgans) and allied financiers manipulated governments to borrow and to reward speculative advantage. It alleges that private central banks and debt-based money systems sought to consolidate power in private hands, sometimes by fomenting or exploiting crises. - Tally sticks and early monetary control: In medieval England, tally sticks were used as money and as a way to keep money power out of bankers’ hands. Their suppression by bankers in 1834 is described as a revenge of a debt-free money system that had empowered the public for centuries. - Goldsmiths, fractional reserve lending, and counterfeiting: The text explains fractional reserve lending as a historic means by which goldsmiths expanded the money supply beyond real reserves, enabling them to profit from interest and to influence economies; this practice is labeled a form of counterfeiting and a source of systemic instability. - The rise of central banking and central control: The transformation from debt-free or government-issuing money to privately controlled central banks is traced from the Bank of England (1694) to the U.S. National Banking Act (1863) and the creation of the Federal Reserve System (1913). The Aldrich Plan, the Jekyll Island meeting (1910–1912), and the public relations campaign to popularize a central banking system are described as pivotal steps toward centralized control over the money supply. - Lincoln’s greenbacks and the political fight over money: The narrative emphasizes Abraham Lincoln’s issuance of greenbacks during the Civil War as debt-free money created by the government. It claims bankers reacted defensively (Hazard Circular) and moved to undermine greenbacks through bonds and later the National Banking Act, which made private banks central to the money supply. Lincoln’s assassination is linked to the broader battle over monetary policy. - Civil War, the rise of debt, and depressions: The text links episodes such as the Panic of 1837, the Coinage Act of 1873, and the Panic of 1893 to deliberate contractions or manipulations of money supply by banking interests. It argues these episodes were engineered to force or normalize debt-based monetary arrangements and central banking. - The 20th century and the Federal Reserve: The Great Depression is attributed to deliberate contraction of the money supply by the Federal Reserve. The text argues that the Fed, a privately owned central bank, has operated to protect the banking sector at the public’s expense, with the 2008 financial crisis cited as confirmation of this dynamic. - Political economy and influence: The narrative contends that politics and academia have been co-opted by moneyed interests. It asserts that large campaign contributions from banks shape policy, and that many economists are funded or controlled by the Reserve and major banks, limiting critical debate about monetary reform. It also claims media and public discourse are constrained by debt relationships and corporate power. - Proposed reforms and principles: Across speakers, a consensus emerges around three core reforms: - Forbid government borrowing as a mechanism for money creation; return to debt-free, government-created money that serves the public interest. - Put money creation under public control, not private banks, with national or local sovereign authority issuing debt-free currency. - End fractional reserve lending and ensure robust competition among banks so that money is created in the public interest and channeled into productive real-economy lending rather than financial speculation. - Practical implementation ideas offered by some speakers: - Government to issue debt-free sovereign currency directly; private banks would compete to lend government-approved money to the public. - Eliminate consolidated currencies (e.g., the euro) in favor of national sovereignty over money creation. - Use monetary policy to match money supply with real productive activity, controlling inflation by adjusting the money supply through public channels rather than debt-based credit expansion. - Repeal or reform existing central banking structures to reestablish a Bank of the United States owned by the people rather than by private banks. - Promote transparency, reduce the influence of special interests in academia and media, and educate the public about money creation. - Enduring critique and warning: If the status quo persists, the system is said to threaten Western civilization and global freedom, with potential for continued debt-serfdom and systemic collapse if debt-based money and private central banks remain in control. - Concluding perspective: The speakers urge decisive reform, emphasizing that the truth about money creation is accessible to the public and that collective political will can restore monetary systems to serve the people. They conclude with a call to remember Margaret Mead’s idea that a small group can change the world, and exhort listeners to pursue debt-free monetary reform as a path to greater production, independence, and freedom.

There is a possibility that multiple world reserve currencies can exist simultaneously. Many countries are becoming disillusioned with the US dollar as the reserve currency and are open to trying something else. One potential scenario is if countries realize that the US dollar will not remain the reserve currency forever. Similar to banks, smaller banks would not want to use a system built by their biggest competitors. Likewise, nations would prefer their currency to be the world reserve currency, but realistically, only a few countries could achieve this. Therefore, some countries might prefer a currency that nobody can control rather than one controlled by their rivals. The challenge lies in getting everyone to agree on an alternative.

The Federal Reserve and the government incorrectly call paper currency "base money," but it is actually base currency because it is not money. Money must be a store of value and maintain its purchasing power. Historically, paper currency represented real money like gold and silver held at the treasury, redeemable at any bank. Now, base currency is a receipt or claim check on a bond IOU.

Speaker 0 argues that losing the, the world standard dollar would be like losing a war, a major world war, and "We would not be the same country." The claim casts the dollar as a critical global benchmark whose disappearance would fundamentally change the United States, equating monetary dominance with the outcome of a major conflict and implying profound national implications. The statement underscores the perceived link between currency status and national power, suggesting that currency leadership shapes international influence and the country’s future trajectory. It frames the dollar's status as a strategic asset whose loss would amount to a strategic setback.

During Abraham Lincoln's presidency, European monarchy agents instigated a rift between the North and South, creating a banker's war. Lincoln, denied reasonable loans from European banks, issued interest-free, debt-free money called greenbacks, based on the American people's credit, not silver or gold. The London Times warned that if this policy persisted, the U.S. would become prosperous, attracting global wealth and threatening monarchies. Bankers understood that sovereign governments printing debt-free money would break their power. A decade after the Civil War, greenbacks were worth as much as gold. The speaker claims Trump moved the Federal Reserve back under Treasury authority. The speaker also claims the Queen of England defers to the Mayor of London annually because the bankers control world governments through money from the City of London. These bankers, representing royal bloodlines, rule by right of blood.

The speaker discusses the impact of the global economy on the US dollar and its need to be backed by tangible assets. They mention that international financiers are gradually losing faith in the dollar as the world's reserve currency, leading to its depreciation. To maintain its status, the US is turning to its European colonies for tangible assets since they are losing their African and Latin American colonies. The speaker expresses concern about this surreal and submissive cycle.

Episode 65 argues our current civilization began around 1700, with governments, banks, and major infrastructure appearing within the last three hundred years, and a population spike coinciding with that period. It cites: "Mint Act" on 04/02/1792 as "the beginning of the dollar" and says it was "the first country in the world to adopt the decimal system for currency." It notes UK currency starting in 1707, China creating a brand new currency in 1948 (taking over a previous one from 1889), and Russia starting in 1704. The top banks by market cap are listed: "JPMorgan at number one" (start 1871); "Bank of America" (1922); "Industrial and Commercial Bank of China" (1984). The speaker claims a growth of "66% increase every sixty nine years" in population and that inventions arose in the eighteenth hundreds. They argue an advanced pre-1700 civilization existed, evidenced by palaces and cathedrals worldwide, citing Budapest's New York Palace (1894) and early life insurance (1706).

A thousand years after the death of Christ, money changers, those who loan out and manipulate the quantity of money, were active in medieval England. They were not bankers per se; the money changers generally were the goldsmiths. They were the first bankers because they started keeping other people's gold for safekeeping in their vaults. The first paper money was merely a receipt for gold left at the goldsmith. Paper money caught on because it was more convenient than carrying around a lot of heavy gold and silver coins. Eventually, goldsmiths noticed that only a small fraction of the depositors ever came in and demanded their gold at any one time. Goldsmiths started cheating on the system. They discovered that they could print more money than they had gold, and usually, no one would be the wiser. Then they could loan out this extra money and collect interest on it. This was the birth of fractional reserve banking, that is, loaning out many times more money than you have assets on deposit. So, if a thousand dollars in gold were deposited with them, they could loan out about $10,000 in paper money and draw interest payments on it, and no one would ever discover the deception. By this means, goldsmiths gradually accumulated more and more wealth and used this wealth to accumulate more and more gold. Today, this practice of loaning out more money than there are reserves is known as fractional reserve banking. Every bank in The United States is allowed to loan out at least 10 times more money than they actually have. That's why they get rich on charging, let's say, 8% interest. It's not really 8% per year, which is their income. It's 80%. That's why bank buildings are always the largest in town. But does that mean that all interest or all banking should be illegal? Hardly. In the Middle Ages, canon law, the law of the Catholic Church, forbade charging interest on loans. This concept followed the teachings of Aristotle and St. Thomas Aquinas. They taught that the purpose of money was to serve the members of society to facilitate the exchange of goods needed to lead a virtuous life. Interest, in their belief, hindered this purpose by putting an unnecessary burden on the use of money. In other words, interest was contrary to reason and justice. Reflecting Church law in the Middle Ages, Europe forbade charging interest on loans and made it a crime called usury. As commerce grew, and therefore opportunities for investment arose in the late Middle Ages, it came to be recognized that to loan money had a cost for the lender, both in risk and in lost opportunity. So some charges were allowed, but not interest per se. But all moralists, no matter what religion, condemn fraud, oppression of the poor, and injustice is clearly immoral. As we will see, fractional reserve lending is rooted in a fraud, results in widespread poverty, and reduces the value of everyone else's money. The ancient goldsmiths discovered that extra profits could be made by rowing the economy between easy money and tight money. When they made money easier to borrow, then the amount of money in circulation expanded. Money was plentiful. People took out more loans to expand their businesses. But then, the money changers would tighten the money supply. They would make loans more difficult to get. What would happen? Just what happens today. A certain percentage of people could not repay their previous loans and could not take out new loans to repay the old ones. Therefore, they went bankrupt and had to sell their assets to the goldsmiths for pennies on the dollar. The same thing is still going on today. Only today, we call this rowing of the economy up and down the business cycle. Like Julius Caesar, King Henry the first

The M2 money supply is decreasing while the USA Treasury dollars are increasing, indicating a transition from fiat currency to the US Treasury system. This has been done before, such as with President Lincoln's greenback currency and President Kennedy's silver certificates. The creation of the Federal Reserve in 1913 led to a decline in purchasing power and various economic events. As the Federal Reserve continues to print money, countries are considering abandoning the US dollar. Transitioning to treasury dollars is seen as a solution to upgrade the monetary system. Signs of a collapsing fiat currency include debt holders selling debt and the central bank printing money to buy it. The US Federal Tax Revenue is decreasing, and countries are creating their own gold currency. Change is coming rapidly and unexpectedly.

Larry Johnson and Glenn discuss the shifting dynamics of the US dollar, the international financial system, and the rise of competing powers. - Johnson recalls the 1965 term exorbitant privilege describing the US dollar’s reserve-currency advantages. In 1971, the US closed the gold window, ending fixed gold value for the dollar; the dollar later became backed by “our promise,” enabling the petrodollar system as oil purchases were conducted in dollars. The dollar’s dominance rested on predictability, a stable legal system, and non-abusive use of the dollar as an economic tool rather than a political weapon. - Trump-era sanctions expanded broadly, impacting friends and adversaries alike, and BRICS nations began moving away from the dollar. Russia’s disconnection from SWIFT after its 2022 actions is noted as a turning point that encouraged the BRICS’ development of alternative financial infrastructure, including China’s cross-border interbank payment system (CIPS). This shift accelerates the decline of the dollar’s dominance. - Nations like Russia and China (and India, Brazil) are unloading US Treasuries and increasing gold and silver holdings. This is tied to concerns about the dollar’s reliability and the reduced faith in paper promises. The BRICS countries reportedly plan a currency tied to gold, with components of their reserves backing individual BRICS currencies, signaling a structural move away from the dollar. - The paper-gold issue is central: for every ounce of real gold, there is a range of 20-to-1 to 100-to-1 in paper gold. This disparity can undermine trust in the paper promise and create a run on physical gold. The price gap between New York (lower) and Shanghai (higher) for gold demonstrates a market dislocation and growing demand for physical metal. - Glenn emphasizes that a unipolar dollar system allows the US to run large deficits via inflation, which acts as a hidden tax on global dollar holders. Weaponizing the dollar through sanctions challenges trust and accelerates decoupling, prompting other nations to seek alternatives to reduce exposure. - Johnson argues that the US is confronting a historic realignment: the Bretton Woods order is dissolving, the dollar’s international dominance is waning, and sanctions and coercive policies are provoking pushback. He highlights Japan as a major remaining dollar treasuries holder that is now offloading, further increasing dollar supply and depressing its value. - The geopolitical implications are significant. Johnson warns that potential US actions against Iran—given their strategic position and the Gulf oil supply—could trigger a severe global disruption, including a price surge in oil. He notes that such actions would complicate global stability and magnify inflationary pressures. - The discussion also covers NATO’s cohesion, Western attempts to shape global alignments, and how rapidly shifting leverage could undermine existing alliances. Johnson suggests that Russia’s strategic gains in the war in Ukraine, combined with Western missteps, may prompt a rapid reevaluation of settlements and borders, while also noting that Russia’s position has hardened. - On Venezuela, Johnson argues that the stated pretexts (drug trafficking, oil control) were questionable and points to economic motives, including revenue opportunities for political allies like Paul Singer, and to Greenland’s strategic interests as possible motivators for US actions. - Looking ahead, Johnson predicts hyperinflation for the United States as the dollar loses value globally, while gold and silver retain value. He asserts that the ruble and yuan may hold value better, and that a mass shift toward de-dollarization is likely to continue, potentially culminating in a new multipolar financial order. - Both speakers agree that trust and predictability are crucial; the current trajectory—threats, sanctions, and unilateral actions—undermines trust and accelerates the move toward alternative currencies and stronger physical-commodity holdings. The overall tone is that a pivotal, watershed moment is unfolding in the global monetary system.

China’s president Xi Jinping has explicitly called for the renminbi (yuan) to attain global reserve currency status, stating that China must build a powerful currency that can be widely used in international trade, investment, and foreign exchange markets and that can be held by central banks as a reserve asset. This is a clear, definitive statement of intent that signals Beijing’s aim for the yuan to play a central role in the global monetary system and to reduce reliance on the US dollar. Beijing surfaced this message with intentional timing. The remarks, originally delivered in 2024 to senior Communist Party and financial officials, were only recently made public. Xi’s reserve currency ambitions and plans were published in Qiushi, the party’s most authoritative policy journal. The timing matters because the remarks appear as the US dollar faces pressure, global monetary uncertainty rises, and central banks worldwide reassess their exposure to the dollar. Trade tensions, the growth of sanctions, and rising political risk have contributed to this reevaluation, and China has moved from quietly expanding yuan usage for trade to explicitly naming its ultimate goal. Xi outlined the institutional foundations he believes are required to support reserve status: a powerful central bank with effective monetary control, globally competitive financial institutions, and international financial centers such as Shanghai and Shenzhen capable of attracting global capital and influencing global pricing. As for where things stand today, IMF data shows the yuan still has a long way to go. It currently makes up less than 2% of global foreign exchange reserves. The dollar still dominates with well over 57%, though it has declined from about 71% in 2000, and the euro is roughly 20%. China still has capital controls, and the currency is not fully convertible. Why would central banks want another fiat currency in their reserves? The attraction of the dollar and the euro lies in the backing of the United States and the institutional credibility behind them. The yuan’s appeal, according to the discussion, is that it is becoming a fiat currency with implicit gold backing. China’s officially reported gold holdings have risen to roughly 2,300 tons, per the World Gold Council, with steady year-after-year purchases, including at least fourteen consecutive months of net purchases through 2025. However, many analysts believe China holds more, with estimates based on trade flows, import data, and disclosure gaps suggesting true holdings closer to 3,005 tons, and some higher-end estimates proposing up to 10,000 tons or more. This gold accumulation serves as a hard asset anchor in an era where trust in fiat currencies is perceived to be weakening. China may be gearing up to offer an alternative linked to gold. It may not be ready to displace the dollar tomorrow, but it is clearly moving toward challenging King Dollar’s throne.

America's gold was supposed to back the dollar. Leaving the gold standard was the most costly mistake we ever made. After the world war, they promised gold backed dollars, but they broke that promise. They printed paper backed by nothing, funded wars we couldn't afford and shouldn't have been involved in. But France caught on and sent a warship to get back their gold. Truth is, if more countries followed, our vaults would be empty and game secretary of the treasury to take the action necessary to suspend temporarily the convertibility of the dollar into gold. Turns out, when you fake the money, everything else follows and you screw the next generation over. Prices shot up, paychecks didn't, life got tougher, and nobody knew why.

On December 9, 2022, Xi Jinping reportedly stated during a state visit to Riyadh that Palestine should be addressed as a state with 1967 borders and a capital in Jerusalem, a claim not covered by Western media but reported in Middle East press. In the afternoon, he invited the six Gulf Cooperation Council states to trade oil and gas in Shanghai for yuan, signaling the end of the Bretton Woods system. The speaker published a commentary on their website asserting that Bretton Woods ended that day, a claim they felt Western media ignored, leading them to develop multicurrency mercantilism as a handbook for understanding future developments. The alternative to the dollar, according to the speaker, is the dollar plus all other currencies and commodities. The ruble, yuan, rand, UAE dirham, Malaysian ringgit, or any currency that two parties to a transaction accept, along with gold, oil, and recently silver and other commodities, can serve as stores of value or economic inputs. The transition to alternatives could be stable unless there is wider war. Historically, transitions from a hegemonic currency to a rival currency have been accompanied by world wars. The dollar replaced sterling after World War I and established dominance after World War II. The central question is whether a new hegemon will emerge and how the United States’ willingness to use violence to preserve hegemony will fare given its growing economic dependence on China and vulnerability. China is not forcing use of the yuan; it invites use, but participants are not obligated. Globalization, the speaker argues, accelerates as more than 40% of the global economy under sanctions (e.g., Iran, Russia) gains optionality to use other currencies, re-integrating with global trade. Russia is engaging in substantial trade with India and China, selling oil and gas, while Iran trades with China as its main oil buyer. Venezuela, previously a major oil supplier to China, faced sanctions; the speaker notes it was invaded yesterday, implying altered trade dynamics. The “Angel Paradox,” named after Norman Angell, posits that sanctions harm the sanctioner more than the sanctioned when interdependent economies go to war; this paradox has been reinforced, particularly with Russia, which has become more sovereign and less dependent on Europe after 19 rounds of sanctions, emerging stronger and contributing to Russia becoming the world’s fourth-largest economy, with the ruble performing well in 2025. Europe, the speaker contends, has weakened due to energy costs, and 19 rounds of sanctions have diminished its growth and industrial capacity. The concept of resiliency, stability, and inflation is highlighted: trading in one’s own currency with partner currencies yields more predictable flows, reduces volatility, and may lower inflation while enabling steadier long-run growth. The speaker notes that more countries have moved to local currency trade since 2022, illustrating the ongoing shift away from hegemonic currencies. Speaker 1 adds that Russia did not anticipate SWIFT exclusion and responded by mandating ruble payments for oil and gas, accelerating the development and globalization of Russia’s own payment system, MIRS, akin to SIPs, and praising Central Bank Governor Elvira Nebolmina for stabilizing the transition.

The speaker argues that using the dollar as a tool of foreign policy is one of the biggest strategic mistakes by the US political leadership, stating that the dollar is the cornerstone of US power and that printing more dollars leads to their wide dispersion worldwide. Inflation in the United States is described as minimal, about 3% to 3.4%, and the speaker asserts that the US will not stop printing. The debt of $33 trillion is said to indicate emission, and the dollar is described as the main weapon used by the United States to preserve its power globally. Once the political leadership decided to use the US dollar as a tool of political struggle, the speaker claims a blow was dealt to American power. The speaker avoids strong language but calls the strategy a stupid thing to do and a grave mistake, pointing to world events as evidence. The speaker notes that US allies are downsizing their dollar reserves, and asserts that these actions cause everyone to seek ways to protect themselves. They claim that US restrictive measures—such as placing restrictions on transactions and freezing assets—cause great concern and send a signal to the world. A historical point is made: until 2022, about 80% of Russian foreign trade transactions were conducted in US dollars and euros, with US dollars accounting for approximately 50% of Russia’s transactions with third countries; currently, the share is down to 13%. The speaker emphasizes that Russia did not ban the use of the US dollar; it was a decision by the United States to restrict transactions in US dollars. The speaker contends that the policy is foolish from the standpoint of US interests and taxpayers because it damages the US economy and undermines US power, and notes that transactions in Yuan accounted for about 3%. Today, 34% of transactions are in rubles, and a little over 34% in yuan. The speaker asks why the United States did this, offering “self conceit” as the guess, claiming the US probably thought it would lead to full collapse, but nothing collapsed. Additionally, the speaker states that other countries, including oil producers, are thinking of and already accepting payments for oil in yuan. The question is posed to the United States about whether anyone realizes what is happening and what they are doing, as the speaker suggests that the US is cutting itself off. Finally, the speaker asserts that all experts say this, and that anyone intelligent in the United States should understand what the dollar means for the US, but claims the US is “killing it with your own hand.”

The biggest hidden secret of money is that the modern banking system allows a few to plunder many through a scam. Currency is created faster than trees can grow, but most people don't understand how. Modern societies create currency similarly, and the US dollar is the majority of the world's currency, so the United States will be used as an example. It begins when a politician says, "Vote for me."

Mario and Jeff discuss what the current geopolitical and monetary environment means for gold, the US dollar, and the broader system that underpins global finance. - Gold and asset roles - Gold is a portfolio asset that does not compete with the dollar; it competes with the stock market and tends to rise when people are concerned about risky assets. It is a “safe haven store value” rather than a monetary instrument aimed at replacing the dollar. - Historically, gold did not reliably hedge inflation in 2021–2022 when the economy seemed to be recovering; in downturns, gold becomes more attractive as a store of value. Recent moves up in gold price over the last two months are viewed as pricing in multiple factors, including potential economic downturn and questionable macro conditions. - The dollar and de-dollarization - The eurodollar system is a vast, largely ledger-based network of US-dollar balances held offshore, allowing near-instantaneous movement of funds. It is not simply “the euro,” and it predates and outlived any single country’s policy. Replacing it would be like recreating the Internet from scratch. - De-dollarization discussions are driven more by political narratives than monetary mechanics. Central banks selling dollar assets during shortages is a liquidity management response, not a repudiation of the dollar. - The dollar’s dominance remains intact because there is no ready substitute meeting all its functions. Replacing the dollar would require replacing the entire set of dollar functions across global settlement, payments, and liquidity provisioning. - Bank reserves, reserves composition, and the size of the eurodollar market - The share of US dollars in foreign reserves has declined, but this is not seen as a meaningful signal about the system’s functionality or dominance; the real issue is the level of settlement and liquidity, which remains heavily dollar-based. - The eurodollar market is enormous and largely offshore, with little public reporting. It is described as a “black hole” that drives movements in the system and is extremely hard to measure precisely. - Current dynamics: debt, safety, and liquidity - The debt ceiling and growing US debt are acknowledged as concerns, but the view presented is that debt dynamics do not destabilize the Treasury market as long as demand for safety and liquidity remains high. In a depression-like environment, US Treasuries are still viewed as the safest and most liquid form of debt, which sustains their price and keeps yields relatively contained. - Gold is safe but not highly liquid as collateral; Treasuries provide liquidity. Central banks use gold to diversify reserves and stabilize currencies (e.g., yuan), but Treasuries remain central to collateral needs in a broad financial system. - China, the US, and global growth - China’s economy faces deflationary pressures, with ten consecutive quarters of deflation in the Chinese GDP deflator, raising questions about domestic demand. Attempts to stimulate have had limited success; overproduction and rebalancing efforts aim to reduce supply to match demand, potentially increasing unemployment and lowering investment. - The US faces a weakening labor market; recent job shedding and rising delinquencies in consumer and corporate credit markets heighten uncertainty about the credit system. This underpins gold’s appeal as a store of value. - China remains heavily dependent on the US consumer; despite decoupling rhetoric, demand for Chinese goods and the global supply chain ties keep the US-China relationship central to global dynamics. The prospect of a Chinese-led fourth industrial revolution (AI, quantum computing) is viewed skeptically as unlikely to overcome structural inefficiencies of a centralized planning model. - Gold, Bitcoin, and alternative systems - Bitcoin is described as a Nasdaq-stock-like store of value tied to tech equities; it is not seen as a robust currency or a wide-scale payment system based on liquidity. It could, in theory, be a superior version of gold someday, but today it behaves like other speculative assets. - The conversation weighs the potential for a shift away from the eurodollar toward private digital currencies or a mix of public-private digital currencies. The idea that a completely decentralized system could replace the eurodollar is acknowledged as a long-term possibility, but currently, stablecoins are evolving toward stand-alone viability rather than a wholesale replacement. - The broader arc and forecast - The trade war is seen as a redistribution of productive capacity rather than a definitive win for either side; macroeconomic outcomes in the 2020s are shaped by monetary conditions and the eurodollar system’s functioning more than by policy interventions alone. - The speakers foresee a future with multipolarity and a gradually evolving monetary regime, possibly moving from the eurodollar toward a suite of digital currencies—some private, some public—while gold remains a key store of value in times of systemic risk. - Argentina, Russia, and Europe - Argentina’s crisis is framed as an outcome of eurodollar malfunctioning; IMF interventions offer only temporary stabilization in the face of ongoing liquidity and deflationary pressures. - Russia remains integrated with global finance through channels like the eurodollar system, even after sanctions; the resilience of energy sectors and external support from partners like China helps it endure. - Europe is acknowledged as facing a difficult, depressing outlook, reinforcing the broader narrative of a challenging global macro environment. Overall, gold is framed as a prudent hedge within a complex, interconnected, and evolving eurodollar system, with no imminent replacement of the dollar in sight, while the path toward a multi-currency or digital-currency future remains uncertain and gradual.

Jeff: Gold is not a monetary instrument the way people often think. It’s actually easy to understand once you move away from the idea that gold is tied to dollar inflation. Gold is simply a portfolio asset, a store of value, and the preeminent safe haven store value. Gold doesn’t compete with the dollar; it competes with the stock market or risky credit markets. The notion of “de-dollarization” largely comes from political context rather than monetary mechanics. Mario: So gold prices rising—how should we think about that trade? Jeff: Gold tends to go up when people are concerned about risky assets because it’s a safe haven. It performed poorly as an inflation hedge in 2021–2022 when the economy seemed to recover and policymakers seemed to have hit the right policy mix. Now, with conditions leaning toward an economic downturn and “Nvidia AI stocks” looking bubbly, gold has revived as a safe haven. The last two months reflect the factors I’ve cited being priced into the gold market. Mario: People talk about the death of the US dollar. Is gold not tied to that? Jeff: They’ve been talking about de-dollarization for twenty years. The dollar remains dominant because there is no replacement for its functions; replacing it would be like recreating the Internet from scratch. The Eurodollar system grew because it could meet many needs in a flexible way, including for asset-holders who want to keep things in US-dollar terms. If you’re trying to hide assets, you keep them in US-dollar terms, and there are places to do so. Mario: The dollar’s share of foreign reserves has fallen from 72% to 58% in recent years. Doesn’t that show a shift away from the dollar? Jeff: That drop isn’t necessarily meaningful for reserve mechanics. What matters is the level of settlement and payments, which are still 90% in US dollars. The yuan is rising in FX settlements, but it’s not replacing the dollar; it’s competing with other currencies on the other side of the dollar. The dollar is as dominant as ever, and there’s no easy replacement because you’d have to replace all its functions. Replacing the dollar network would be like recreating the Internet—massive, complex, and gradual. Mario: What about the Eurodollar market itself? How big is it? Jeff: Nobody knows. It’s offshore, regulatory offshore, with little reporting; it’s a black hole. Eurodollars are “numbers on a screen,” ledger money, not physical dollars. The Eurodollar system lets money move quickly worldwide through bank-ledger networks, integrating various ledgers. It’s the global settlement mechanism, and its size is effectively unknowable, yet it’s the currency the world uses. Mario: Why do central banks buy gold now, especially China? Jeff: Gold is a portfolio asset, a diversification tool. Central banks must diversify reserves; they still need some US Treasuries for the eurodollar system, but gold helps balance risk. In China’s case, gold supports yuan stability and diversifies reserves beyond US assets. Mario: What happens if a conflict with China disrupts the system? What replaces the dollar or the eurodollar plumbing? Jeff: It’s the great unknown. If there’s a real shooting war, China could be cut off by many, and the dollar system would shrink to those willing to participate. The eurodollar would strengthen as a settlement medium, though with a smaller global footprint. The idea of replacing the eurodollar with a Chinese-led system is unlikely; gold’s role in cross-border settlement remains limited, and gold alone isn’t a reliable settlement instrument. Mario: Is China building a “gold corridor” to decouple from the dollar? Jeff: The gold corridor theory reflects ongoing speculation. There have been many schemes—Petro-dollar, digital currencies, Belt and Road—that have not proven game-changing in defeating the dollar system. Gold in that context is not a robust settlement mechanism across geographies; the eurodollar system arose to move away from gold settlement. Mario: Why are people hoarding gold? How does the US debt situation affect the dollar’s safety? Jeff: US debt is a concern, but safety and liquidity demand still drives demand for government debt, not gold. Gold is safe but illiquid as collateral; liquidity is why Treasuries remain central. The debt grows, but the treasury market has remained robust because it’s the deepest market and the safest liquid asset. The larger risk lies in the federal government's expanding footprint and the potential debt trap, where stimulus doesn’t spur growth and leads to rising debt. Mario: What about Bitcoin as a store of value? And how about Russia? Jeff: Bitcoin behaves like a Nasdaq stock—more of a store of value tied to tech equities than a broad currency. It’s not likely to become a widespread medium of exchange. Russia remains connected to the US system; it’s less about the Russian economy collapsing and more about how energy and sanctions interact. The eurodollar system has kept Russia afloat through channels like the UAE, and it’s unlikely that Russia’s fate hinges on a single currency shift. Mario: Will the US empire fall or evolve into a multipolar world? Jeff: Likely a multipolar world, not a complete fall of the US empire. I’m long-term optimistic on the US and global economy. The eurodollar system could slowly be replaced by private digital currencies, with stablecoins evolving toward independence. The transition would be gradual, with multiple private digital currencies emerging, while the eurodollar would persist in a rump form if needed.