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In the short term, admitting the Baltic states to NATO could cause significant concern in US-Russian relations. The speaker believes this move could provoke a strong reaction from Russia, although not necessarily a military one. They also mention the idea of Europe becoming "NATOized" like Finland. English Translation: Admitting the Baltic states to NATO could cause concern in US-Russian relations, potentially leading to a strong reaction from Russia. The speaker also mentions the concept of Europe becoming "NATOized" like Finland.

I met with Putin before or after becoming president, and we discussed NATO potentially fracturing. He seemed excited about the idea of causing problems for NATO.

NATO expansion is seen by Russia as a broken promise and betrayal. They feel deceived by the continuous expansion of NATO towards their borders, leading to military encirclement and American influence. The lack of a written treaty is dismissed as a technicality, with Russia questioning the trustworthiness of the US. Since the mid-1990s, America's influence has significantly expanded near Russia.

**Original Summary (Deutsch):** Der Sprecher analysiert ein Gesprächsprotokoll von 1990 zwischen James Baker und Michael Gorbatschow bezüglich der NATO-Osterweiterung. Laut dem Protokoll, das aus dem National Security Archive stammt, sicherte Baker Gorbatschow zu, dass sich die NATO nicht ausdehnen würde. Baker argumentierte, dass die NATO die amerikanische Vorherrschaft über Europa sichern könne, was ohne die NATO gefährdet wäre. Wörtlich sagte Baker, man verstehe, dass es für Gorbatschow wichtig sei, dass sich die NATO nicht einen Zentimeter nach Osten ausdehnt, auch nicht im Zuge der deutschen Wiedervereinigung. Der Sprecher betont, dass es sich um Originalprotokolle handelt, die belegen, dass die USA den Sowjets versprochen hätten, die NATO nicht zu erweitern. **English Translation:** The speaker analyzes a 1990 conversation transcript between James Baker and Michael Gorbachev regarding NATO expansion. According to the transcript, sourced from the National Security Archive, Baker assured Gorbachev that NATO would not expand. Baker argued that NATO could secure American dominance over Europe, which would be jeopardized without NATO. Baker literally said that he understood it was important to Gorbachev that NATO not expand one inch eastward, not even in the course of German reunification. The speaker emphasizes that these are original protocols proving that the US promised the Soviets not to expand NATO.

What does your colleague from the US think about our status? It's challenging not to pursue NATO membership. We’re saddened by the situation, and Britain has always supported your NATO aspirations. However, with 30 nations in NATO, gaining unanimous agreement is difficult. We've been committed to helping you prepare for NATO membership over the past five years, and we regret the current circumstances. We want to ensure you are not pressured into recognizing Crimea as part of Russia. It’s important that you remain free from Russian influence and aggression.

Украина рассматривает вступление в НАТО, но это может вызвать крупные военные операции России. Россия может атаковать Украину, чтобы предотвратить вступление в НАТО. Выбор стоит между войной с Россией и вступлением в НАТО после победы. Крупная война включает воздушные операции, вторжения армий, осаду Киева, диверсии и другие действия. Вероятность войны 99%, особенно после 2021-2022. Translation: Ukraine considers joining NATO, but it may lead to major Russian military operations. Russia could attack Ukraine to prevent NATO membership. The choice is between war with Russia and joining NATO after victory. A major war involves air operations, army invasions, siege of Kyiv, sabotage, and other actions. The likelihood of war is 99%, especially after 2021-2022.

In December 2021, Putin presented a draft Russia-US security agreement, proposing a halt to NATO enlargement. The speaker contacted Jake Sullivan at the White House, urging negotiation to avoid war, arguing NATO enlargement is counter to US security. The US formally responded in January 2022 that NATO issues are nonnegotiable and solely concern NATO countries and candidates, excluding any third-party influence, including Russia. The speaker likened this stance to a hypothetical scenario of China establishing military bases on the Rio Grande, asserting the US would have no right to interfere. The speaker claims this response was not "unprovoked" and followed 30 years of provocation where the US would only accept doing whatever it wants, wherever it wants, with no one having any say.

The speaker recounts a conversation where Russian counterparts expressed concerns about NATO expansion, suggesting they might turn to China in response. The speaker sarcastically wished them luck, implying this was not a viable option. The speaker stated they also suggested Iran as an alternative. According to the speaker, all involved knew these alternatives were unrealistic. The speaker believes Russian leaders need to look west, regardless of their resentment. The speaker questions whether the current situation is designed to completely shut Russia out, not necessarily as a direct military threat.

The speaker discusses the idea of Russia joining NATO and relates it to recently declassified documents. He reads a 1954 note from the Soviet government to NATO member countries, stating: "Relying on the unchanging principles of our peaceful foreign policy and striving to reduce tension in international relations, the Soviet government expresses readiness to consider jointly with interested governments the question of the USSR's participation in the North Atlantic Treaty Organization." He then presents the response to that proposal: “There is no need to underline the utterly unrealistic nature of such a proposal.” The speaker recalls an earlier moment, about a year prior, when, in response to the question about Russia possibly joining NATO, he said, “why not?” He notes that former U.S. Secretary of State Madeleine Albright, while traveling in Europe, responded that this is not being discussed now. The core discussion is framed around understanding whether NATO is a military organization and whether Russia would be welcome there. The speaker suggests that NATO is indeed a military organization and questions whether Russia would be wanted there. He asserts that NATO “is moving toward our borders,” and he ascribes to this movement a purpose or inevitability that shapes Russia’s position on the issue. In summarizing the underlying basis of the Russian position, the speaker emphasizes the perception that NATO’s character as a military alliance and its movements toward Russia’s borders inform a strategic stance against expanding membership to include Russia. He contrasts the historical openness expressed in 1954 with the contemporary response that such a proposal is not realistic, and with current statements from Western officials indicating that Russia’s accession is not under consideration. The narrative ties together declassified archival material, a past provocative-appearing suggestion, and present-day geopolitical calculations about NATO’s reach and military posture near Russia.

**German Summary:** Es wird die Frage behandelt, warum die Nicht-Osterweiterung der NATO nicht vertraglich fixiert wurde. Damals existierten NATO und Warschauer Pakt, wodurch sich die Frage einer solchen Fixierung nicht stellte. Es wird als Mythos bezeichnet, dass Russland bezüglich der NATO-Osterweiterung betrogen wurde, wobei die Presse eine Rolle gespielt habe. Moskau hätte im Zuge der deutschen Vereinigung Zusagen erhalten, dass sich die NATO nicht nach Osten ausdehnt. Ursprünglich bestand man darauf, dass Deutschland neutral bleibt, aber beim Gipfel in Camp David stimmte man einem vereinten Deutschland in der NATO zu. Mit der vollen staatlichen Souveränität Deutschlands war klar, dass es selbst über seine Bündniszugehörigkeit entscheidet. **English Translation:** The question of why NATO's non-eastern expansion was not contractually fixed is addressed. At that time, NATO and the Warsaw Pact existed, so the question of such a fixation did not arise. It is described as a myth that Russia was deceived regarding NATO's eastern expansion, with the press playing a role. Moscow is said to have received assurances during the German unification process that NATO would not expand eastward. Initially, it was insisted that Germany remain neutral, but at the Camp David summit, agreement was given to a united Germany in NATO. With Germany's full state sovereignty, it was clear that it would decide on its own alliance membership.

NATO and Russia debate over who is responsible for the Russian army's proximity to NATO's doorstep. NATO argues its expansion is defensive, while Russia blames NATO for moving closer to its borders. The discussion delves into the perception of threat and territorial integrity violations in Ukraine. Despite NATO's expansion eastward, they maintain it is not hostile. The conversation highlights differing perspectives on the situation. Translation: The debate between NATO and Russia revolves around the Russian army's presence near NATO's borders. NATO sees its expansion as defensive, while Russia accuses NATO of moving closer to its territory. The discussion touches on the perceived threat and violations in Ukraine, showcasing differing viewpoints.

There's debate over expanding NATO to Central European countries like Poland, Hungary, the Czech Republic, and Slovakia. Russia is against further expansion, warning of a potential "cold peace." While the US hasn't set a date, the understanding is that expansion will happen eventually. The issue isn't *if*, but *when*. Germany primarily advocates for expansion within NATO. While keeping the option open, expansion should only proceed if there's a real threat. The focus should be on encouraging Russia to cooperate peacefully. It's also more important for Eastern European countries to join the European Union for economic benefits. Expanding NATO to protect borders that aren't currently threatened doesn't make sense. Creating a buffer zone in Central Europe could lead to renewed tensions between Russia and Germany. We should aim for friendly relations with Russia.

We've seen five waves of NATO expansion, with military bases and attack systems now deployed in Romania and Poland. Ukraine is also being considered for NATO membership. We didn't threaten anyone; they came to our borders. Instead of treating Russia as a potential ally and building trust, they kept breaking us up and expanding NATO to the East. We expressed our concerns, but they didn't care. We prioritize our own security.

The speaker expresses deep sadness about the current situation with Russia, noting extensive time spent in Russia in the 1980s and 1990s and connections with people who ran the government then. He argues that a fundamental error by the United States in the mid to late 1980s and early 1990s was the expansion of NATO. He emphasizes that after the Cold War was won, there was debate about NATO’s future, and the idea of expanding it arose despite it being a bureaucracy that “works.” The speaker recounts a key episode from the reunification negotiations with Germany. He says that during those talks, Gorbachev and Jim Baker discussed the treaty, which stated that there would be no NATO troops in East Germany, and Baker told Gorbachev that if Germany were reunified and NATO expanded beyond that, NATO would not expand “one inch further east.” The speaker states that Gorbachev told him and others that Baker had promised this interpretation, and that Gorbachev also told Coal (likely a reference to other Russian officials) the same thing, which he says was new information. He asserts that the first Bush administration kept this promise, or at least appeared to honor it, pursuing a partnership for peace that Russians somewhat liked. With the Clinton administration, the speaker asserts, the first thing done in his first term was to expand NATO. He questions the rationale, referencing Strobe Talbot’s Foreign Affairs article on why NATO was expanded, and implies the reasons were insufficient. In conversations with Russians who ran for president in 1996 and 2000, he recalls a question from the Urals about why the Americans were expanding NATO, noting that although NATO is a military alliance, Russians might not understand puts and calls but do understand tanks. He quotes a Russian politician who says, “Russians might not be able to understand puts and calls, but they certainly understand tanks.” The speaker uses a banking analogy: a friend or supporter goes bankrupt, and you call to offer encouragement; instead, the United States “kicked them when they were down” by expanding NATO. He contends that this expansion created the justification for authoritarianism’s return in Russia and characterizes it as a blunder of monumental proportions. He reflects that at Oxford he studied Cold War origins and believes the Russians were responsible for much of it, describing the expansion as born of bureaucratic inertia within NATO, or, in the worst case, a self-fulfilling prophecy among certain Clinton-era officials who believed Russia would forever be the enemy. Looking forward, the speaker suggests a missed opportunity for a strategic partnership built on common long-term threats and cooperation, noting that Russia would have been a significant partner given its oil and regional influence. He concludes with a sense of profound sadness, arguing that the United States created a problem that could have been avoided and lost an important long-term partner, especially on today’s most threatening issues.

What does "revisionist Russia" mean? It suggests a desire to return to the Soviet Union's former glory. Secretary Hagel mentioned Russia's army being on NATO's doorstep. Some argue this is due to NATO's eastward expansion, but that perspective isn't universally accepted. NATO's expansion is seen as beneficial, not a threat. While NATO is a defensive alliance, Russia's military movements, including actions in Ukraine, are viewed as aggressive. The expansion of NATO doesn't imply hostility; it's about security. The focus should be on Russia's actions that destabilize neighboring countries, rather than blaming NATO for its proximity to Russia.

We've seen 5 waves of NATO expansion, with military bases and attack systems now in Romania and Poland. Ukraine may also join NATO, further increasing their presence. We didn't threaten anyone, they came to our borders. Instead of treating Russia as a possible ally, they kept breaking us up and expanding NATO to the East. We expressed our concerns, but they don't care. We prioritize our own security.

Speaker 0: It is an indictment of your own leadership. And in countries across Europe, the leaders feel that way. Russia is an embarrassment to them because it is, relatively speaking, thriving. And so they all, as one, backed the Biden administration's plan to have a war with Russia. And let's stop lying. This was not an unprovoked invasion. Putin just randomly went over the line into Eastern Ukraine and stole these oblast. He stole this land that belonged to another people. That's a total lie, and it's not a defense of Putin to call it out as a lie because it is, and everybody knows it now. The truth is that in 2001, Putin, same guy, same leader, asked the Bush administration in person directly to George W. Bush, I would like to join NATO. I would like to join the defensive alliance that exists to keep me from moving west into Western Europe. In other words, you won. I'm joining your team. And due in part to his own limitations as a leader and due in part to the counsel that he received from Condoleezza Rice at the time, George w Bush turned down that offer and prevented Russia from joining NATO. And the guest we're gonna speak to in a moment, if you're wondering if he has a good track record of calling future events, said at the time, this decision to turn down Vladimir Putin's it's twenty five years ago, Vladimir Putin's request to join NATO, to join the West, to all be in it together, to work together, this decision made by the Bush administration guarantees a collision with the West. We are now on a collision course. And, of course, he was absolutely right because NATO didn't want Russia because NATO wanted a war with Russia, and boy, they got it. And so from 2001 all the way to 2022, twenty one years, NATO moved inexorably east surrounding Russia. And many times, again, this is not a defense of Russia. It's just a fact. Many times, the Russian government under Putin said, woah. Woah. Woah. Woah. Woah. Are threatening our core national interest, which is not to have other people's missiles on our borders back off. And then in 2014, the Obama administration overthrew the government of Ukraine to put an American puppet in there, thereby sealing the fate of nations. When that happened, and Sergei Karganov said it at the time, you have just guaranteed a war in Ukraine that will destroy Ukraine.

I think President Putin believes NATO's expansion is the reason the Russian army is at NATO's doorstep, but we certainly don't see it that way. NATO has expanded, but that's a good thing. I'm pretty sure it wasn't NATO who ordered troops to the Ukrainian border or destabilized Eastern Ukraine. NATO is a security alliance, not an anti-Russia alliance. For fifty years, it was an anti-Soviet alliance. I'm not going to pretend to know what goes on in President Putin's mind. NATO has expanded, but there's no reason to think the expansion is hostile. We're blaming Russia for violating Ukraine's territorial integrity.

Европейским лидерам помешали две вещи в воплощении принципов: неспособность противостоять курсу руководства США и Англии (Рейгану и Тэтчер), и надежды на сокрушение коммунизма. Коммунизма давно нет, хотя его пытались строить. Элементы этой политики реализуются до сих пор, включая военное присутствие США в Европе, базы НАТО и попытки выстроить диалог с позиции силы. Дело не в коммунизме, а в тотальной русофобии. **Translation:** Two things prevented European leaders from implementing principles: the inability to resist the course of the US and British leadership (Reagan and Thatcher), and hopes for the destruction of communism. There has been no communism for a long time, although they tried to build it. Elements of this policy are still being implemented, including the US military presence in Europe, NATO bases, and attempts to build a dialogue from a position of strength. The point is not communism, but total Russophobia.

Russia attempted to join NATO in 2000, indicating NATO's purpose was fulfilled. The rejection was surprising, especially when Russia proposed aligning against a common enemy, Iran, during George W. Bush's presidency. However, Condoleezza Rice opposed this idea, reflecting a narrow focus on anti-Russian sentiment. The situation escalated when Kamala Harris publicly encouraged Ukraine to join NATO, despite clear warnings from Russia against NATO's presence on its border. This led to Russia's invasion. Critics argue that NATO's reluctance to accept Ukraine was a strategy to provoke conflict, benefiting certain interests financially. The motivations behind these actions remain contentious, with calls for clarity on the rationale driving U.S. policies.

Мы против расширения НАТО и размещения ударных систем у наших границ. Если все хотят мира, почему не отказаться от этого? Мы готовы создать условия для повышения доверия и безопасности.

Speaker 0 states he wanted Ukraine, not Russia, to join NATO. He felt Ukraine needed to be in the EU and NATO. Speaker 1 brings up that Secretary of State Baker primed Gorbachev in the early nineties not to expand NATO. Speaker 0 responds that times change and the United States must be flexible and adjust to the times, which is why there is strong support for Speaker 1's country now. Speaker 1 says it doesn't matter what Baker primed Gorbachev with in the past, and that we have to see what is going on now.

Zusammenfassung der Aussagen: "Die NATO lebt noch im Frieden mit Russland, ja", aber "Russland in der Tat testet uns" und "kennt Zwischenzustände zwischen Frieden und Krieg". Es ist "vollkommen klar, dass Russland uns jetzt testen will" und dass "Russland Souveränitätsrechte von NATO Staaten verletzt werden wird weiterhin, davon müssen wir ausgehen" – daher "da muss es eine sehr klare Antwort geben." Abschließend: "Wir leben nicht mehr im Frieden mit Russland" "Wir leben nicht in einem vollständigen Frieden." Summary: "The NATO lives still in peace with Russia, yes" but "Russia in fact tests us" and "knows intermediate states between peace and war". It is "completely clear that Russia is testing us now" and that "Russia will continue to violate the sovereignty rights of NATO states, that must be expected"—therefore "there must be a clear response." Finally, "We are not living in a complete peace."

Putin's intention in the war was to force Zelensky to negotiate—Neutrality. "The idea was to keep NATO. And what is NATO? It's The United States off of Russia's border. No more, no less." When the Soviet Union ended in 1991, an agreement was made that NATO will not move one inch eastward, but "the decision was taken formally in 1994 when president Clinton signed off on NATO enlargement to the East, all the way to Ukraine and into Georgia." Enlargement continued: 1999 (Hungary, Poland, Czech Republic); 2004 (Baltic states, Romania, Bulgaria, Slovenia, Slovakia). Putin said "stop" in 02/2007; in 02/2008, "The United States jammed down Europe's throat enlargement of NATO to Ukraine and to Georgia." 02/2010, Yanukovych neutrality; US overthrow in 2014; Minsk accords; "autonomy for the Russian speaking regions" in the East. "Blinken told Lavrov in January 2022, The United States reserves the right to put missile systems wherever it wants." The war started; "Ukraine walked away unilaterally from a near agreement" because "The United States told them to." It's the pure proxy war; and "a million Ukrainians have died or been severely"

NATO denies responsibility for Russian army's proximity, citing NATO's defensive nature. Russia's actions in Ukraine and Georgia are questioned. NATO's eastward expansion is acknowledged but not seen as hostile. The debate centers on perceived threats and territorial integrity. Other countries also feel threatened. Translation: NATO denies blame for Russian army's closeness, emphasizing defense. Actions in Ukraine and Georgia are disputed. Expansion eastward is noted but not seen as hostile. Debate focuses on threats and territorial integrity. Other countries also feel threatened.