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Colonel Douglas MacGregor discusses the Persian Gulf, arguing that Donald Trump is caught between declaring war is over and warning of severe weapons and renewed conflict. He says Trump wanted to avoid war with Iran, pointing to the aftermath of a “12-day war” when Israel suffered missile attacks from Iran and Trump launched B2s and announced the war was over. MacGregor claims Netanyahu and campaign donors dragged Trump into the war, that “we have lost the war, militarily,” because the U.S. lacks the right weapons, is not organized for it, and faces a “fundamentally new way of war” Iran has mastered. He adds that there are no peace negotiations underway—only a “memorandum of understanding” that codifies the loss—and he believes agreement is impossible because Israel will not allow disengagement, framing it as an existential threat to Israel and tied to Israel’s “greater Israel project.”
George questions whether the likely outcome could be neither war nor peace—constant low-level conflict with periodic flashes of violence. MacGregor responds that this would damage the global economy through supply chain destruction, higher food and fuel inflation, slower growth, and shortages of petroleum products. He argues the situation can’t be resolved quickly even if oil ships are loaded and sent, and notes only a trickle is moving through the Gulf due to lack of trust. He says the only solution to end the war and exit is military disengagement—pulling out—because staying in the region keeps the U.S. at risk of being drawn back in, potentially “much, much worse,” with Iran stronger than ever and U.S. capabilities largely unchanged after sacrificing an arsenal for Israel. He argues Trump must tell Israelis to continue “on your own,” but says Trump cannot do so effectively because Israel’s political influence controls Congress and essentially the White House. He also claims that more than 70% of Americans want nothing to do with the war, but “the government is totally unresponsive” to that.
MacGregor adds that constraints make a full walk-away unlikely. He cites Israeli Defense Minister Katz saying Israel will not withdraw from southern Lebanon and that hundreds of thousands of Lebanese will not be allowed to return home regardless of American instruction. He warns that if Trump “wallows in the middle” or sits on the fence—likened to Ukraine—global economic effects will intensify: impacts on liquefied natural gas, residential heating and industrial manufacturing; blocking export of about 30% of global ammonia-based nitrogen fertilizer; halting production of 30% of the world’s helium used in semiconductors and medical imaging; unchecked inflation; and eventual collapse in bond markets, with timing suggesting it could occur in fall.
Turning to Europe and Russia, MacGregor says citizens of Great Britain would prefer the British Army stay home rather than fight in Ukraine. He claims there is no evidence of support for war against Russia among contacts in Germany and says Putin’s recent speech was directed at Germany but aligned with broader European agreement. He argues European countries face the same problem as the U.S.: governments must be replaced, describing them as living in an old “First Republic” and needing a “Second Republic.” He connects unrest to social cohesion, mass immigration, and governmental failure to provide shelter, food, and security. He says Western civilization is about to undergo an overhaul “on the scale of the revolutions of 1848,” with the trigger likened to people in France being unable to afford bread.
Later, he says the breakdown in U.S. policymaking comes from the people controlling it in Washington—billionaires behind the Israel lobby—who he says do not need to lobby and instead invest in politicians’ careers. He argues that over 30–40 years this has ensured politicians won’t fail them, while concern for Palestinians and casualties once seemed to matter less but now has grown broader. He says Americans will not get angry enough to act until gasoline is prohibitively expensive, food disappears from shelves, and familiar conditions vanish, concluding that this is his prognosis. He also says his involvement with the “National Conversation” aims to build a foundation for a new political party, but says “things have to get worse” before change.