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Alastair Crook discusses the growing talk of a possible war with Iran and how current developments resemble a broader “model” drawn from other recent U.S. military ventures, notably in Venezuela and Syria. He notes a palpable sense in the United States after a controversial press conference by Trump and in comments from the secretary of state that Cuba, Colombia, and Mexico are among the countries potentially targeted, with Venezuela’s fate also in play. He argues that the situation in Venezuela is following a pattern similar to Syria: Gulf states pressured Assad to cut links with Iran and Hezbollah while Russia and Turkey backed him, leading to a management-style “buyout” of control. In Venezuela, Maduro was removed and Beltrie Rodriguez has become acting president, with Rodriguez connected to Doha and the Qatari business and oil sectors. Crook suggests that the arrangement mirrors a “CEO replacement” or management buyout of a state, with U.S. and regional interests reconfiguring leadership, security, and oil ownership. He points to the involvement of Cuban security forces and notes rival power centers such as Cabello (a former head of security/intelligence) returning from Cuba, indicating ongoing instability and potential spillover into Colombia and Mexico.
On Israel, Crook describes a crisis connected to Netanyahu’s legal jeopardy, corruption trials, and a broader domestic fight over accountability and governance. He highlights allegations of treachery within Netanyahu’s close circle related to Qatar and Doaa (Doha) influence, including the Four Seasons hotel stays in the U.S. and questions over what Qatar sought in return. He says hardline elements in Israel—Israeli ministers and security leaders—are using these revelations to demand investigations and possible resignations, intensifying internal divisions. In parallel, he says Netanyahu is trying to present a war with Iran as a political solution to domestic crises. He references Israeli cabinet discussions and Netanyahu’s expectation that a U.S. green light for a strike on Iran might be forthcoming as a way to reset political momentum, particularly with the MAGA crowd in the U.S. and the Likud party seeking to maintain power.
Crook emphasizes that Netanyahu’s calculus is tied to broader regional and transatlantic dynamics. In Israel, there is talk that Iran’s defense and missile systems are being upgraded to create a shield that would complicate any attack, shifting the emphasis from a nuclear focus to destroying missiles to retain a feasible option to strike Iran’s nuclear capabilities. He notes that in Iran, protests and currency pressures are framed by foreign influence, including claims of Al-Qaeda links, though he argues such claims are part of a broader propaganda effort. He also points to the currency collapse and external destabilization as signs of precursors to conflict, with murmurs in Hebrew press that a broader war against Hezbollah and disarmament might be pursued if a “green light” is extended by the United States.
Crook concludes that war with Iran would likely be driven by a combination of strategic aims and political calculations: decapitation or disruption of Iran’s missile structure, potential regime-change dynamics, and internal U.S. and Israeli political pressures. He stresses that the war is not simply a military objective but also a crucible for the future of Israel, U.S. policy, and the MAGA movement, with eschatological and messianic narratives intersecting with realpolitik. He also cautions against assuming a purely rational strategic calculation, noting how ideological commitments and domestic political infighting could push leaders toward dramatic actions despite uncertain outcomes. Finally, he asserts that the relationship between America’s Israel policy and its domestic political landscape will shape the trajectory of any potential confrontation.