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Janet Yellen's announcement on stable coin regulation coincided with the downfall of Tera Luna. It's no coincidence that a new bill was introduced and within 24 hours, the top algorithmic stable coin crashed.

The US dollar is the bedrock of the world's financial system, and a rapidly rising dollar can destabilize financial markets. Despite the US printing many dollars, global demand is so high that the supply isn't enough, preventing rising US inflation. The risk comes when other economies slow down relative to the US. With less economic activity, fewer dollars circulate globally, increasing the price as countries chase them to pay for goods and service debts. This creates a "dollar milkshake" effect, forcing countries to devalue their currencies as the dollar rises. The US becomes a safe haven, sucking in capital and further increasing the dollar's value, potentially leading to a sovereign bond and currency crisis. Central banks may try to intervene, but the momentum can become unstoppable. The world is stuck with the dollar underpinning the global financial system, so everyone needs to pay attention to the dollar milkshake theory.

When a country's currency depreciates, it often reflects a weaker economy. Typically, stronger economies have stronger currencies. For instance, the Canadian dollar is depreciating against the US dollar due to several factors. One major reason is the decline in oil prices, which is Canada's largest export. Additionally, the Bank of Canada is cutting interest rates more aggressively to address the weaker economy, prompting investors to prefer higher rates in the US. For the average Canadian, this depreciation means higher prices for imported goods, as Canada imports about one-third of its economy, impacting everyday items like food and machinery.

The Japanese yen recently crashed past 150 to the dollar, a level the Bank of Japan was expected to defend, raising concerns of a potential global financial crisis. Japan's "zombie economy," supported by high public spending and zero interest rates, allows investors to earn significantly more in the US or Europe. This is causing capital flight from Japan, weakening the yen. The weaker yen has increased import prices, especially for energy and food, impacting Japanese consumers whose incomes have remained stagnant for 25 years. The Bank of Japan can't raise interest rates to strengthen the yen due to Japan's massive public debt, which is 267% of its GDP. Raising rates to US levels would make debt service unsustainable. Rising inflation may force the government and Bank of Japan to inject more money, potentially creating a cycle of further currency devaluation and rate increases. Japan's debt level could trigger a global debt crisis, dwarfing the crisis of 2008.

Japan is in stagflation, facing a weak economy, crashing yen, and rising prices. Unions secured significant pay hikes after years of stagnant wages, signaling inflation. Japan's massive debt raises concerns of a global financial crisis. Government spending may worsen stagflation. The situation mirrors the 1970s and 2008 crises, leading to potential economic turmoil. Governments worldwide are increasing spending, risking a return to the economic challenges of the past.

In the early eighties, the US dollar floated high against the Japanese yen and German Deutsche Mark, buoyed by the Reagan era combination of tight money and a high budget deficit. That was good news for Japan and Germany because the high dollar meant a low yen in Deutsche Mark, and low prices for Japanese and German exports. More sales and more jobs. But the high dollar was bad news for The US. Higher export prices, declining sales, lost jobs, and calls for government protection. As Ronald Reagan's treasury secretary, James Baker believed that free markets made their best choices without government interference.

Japan, with 2% of the world's population, could disrupt the entire world. Despite government efforts, Japan's economy has faltered, with disappointing numbers from major auto companies and high rice prices. Japan is a major global creditor, holding over a trillion dollars in US Government debt. The yen carry trade, where investors borrow yen at low rates and invest in higher-yielding overseas assets, has powered risky financial bets for decades. However, the yen is getting stronger, which is problematic. In 2024, the unwinding of the carry trade caused a yen spike and a flash crash in Japanese stocks, impacting global markets. The unwinding continues in 2025, with Japanese government bonds collapsing and interest rates rising. This slow-motion unwinding of trillions in global leverage is making investors nervous. Japan's zero interest rates enabled the yen carry trade, a key financial strategy for 30 years.

On August 5, Japan's Nikkei 225 stock index plunged 12.4%, the worst day since Black Monday in 1987, amid investor concerns about the U.S. economy. The market closed down 4,451 points at 31,458, the largest points drop in history, erasing all gains for the year. At one point, it sank 13.4%. The market is worried about a potential U.S. recession risk, with Japan being the most affected market in Asia. Mitsubishi, Mitsui, and Sumitomo all plunged close to 14%, with Mitsui losing almost 20% of its market cap. The broader Topix index fell 12.8%. The Nikkei 225 dropped 5.8% earlier in August, marking its worst two-day decline ever. U.S. stocks fell sharply after a weaker-than-expected jobs report for July. The Nasdaq entered correction territory, down over 10% from its record high. The S&P 500 and Dow were 5.7% and 3.9% below their all-time highs, respectively. Concerns about the U.S. economy and the Bank of Japan's rate hike are driving risk-averse sentiment.

Despite hotter-than-expected inflation in Japan, the yen continues to weaken due to Governor Ueda's dovish comments. Inflation is generally in line with expectations, with some technical adjustments for energy subsidies. The Bank of Japan is torn amid domestic and external uncertainties. Externally, there are concerns about a potential Trump 2.0 administration and Scott Bessent replacing Yellen as Treasury Secretary, which could lead to yen volatility. Domestically, the new Ishiba administration faces challenges, similar to Trump's early struggles in 2016, limiting the BOJ's ability to hike rates. While yen weakness at $1.60 is a concern for Ishiba, the BOJ is standing pat. However, the BOJ is often behind the market, and if the dollar-yen trend continues to $1.60, the Minister of Finance might intervene, potentially forcing a rate hike in January.

the real risk is if the foreign currency were to appreciate dramatically relative to your own. but if you're a Thai bank in the early nineties, you're like, there's this huge demand of other people wanting to convert their currency into the Thai baht. In fact, so much so that in order to maintain this peg, the Thai Central Bank is is is is printing money and buying those and buying those dollars. It's trying to soak it up. So the Thai Central Bank is building this huge reserve of dollars. So for whatever reason, if those investors were ever to try to pull out, the Thai central bank could still attempt to keep the currency pegged. And so when you go to 1997, that's exactly what happened.

Japan, with only 2% of the world's population, could disrupt the entire world. Recent growth data shows Japan's economy has taken a step back. The country's three biggest auto industry names announced disappointing numbers and warned of rough waters ahead. Rice prices in Japan remain stubbornly high, causing consumers to struggle to afford food. The government has had limited success fixing the problem. Japan could increase interest rates in other countries, crash stock portfolios globally, and potentially trigger the next global recession.

Hey Mel, I have important intel to share. In 1957, the US made a deal with Saudi Arabia to use USD for oil sales. This deal ends on June 9th, and Saudi Arabia won't renew it. This could impact the USD's value. Just wanted to pass this on to you.

China’s president Xi Jinping has explicitly called for the renminbi (yuan) to attain global reserve currency status, stating that China must build a powerful currency that can be widely used in international trade, investment, and foreign exchange markets and that can be held by central banks as a reserve asset. This is a clear, definitive statement of intent that signals Beijing’s aim for the yuan to play a central role in the global monetary system and to reduce reliance on the US dollar. Beijing surfaced this message with intentional timing. The remarks, originally delivered in 2024 to senior Communist Party and financial officials, were only recently made public. Xi’s reserve currency ambitions and plans were published in Qiushi, the party’s most authoritative policy journal. The timing matters because the remarks appear as the US dollar faces pressure, global monetary uncertainty rises, and central banks worldwide reassess their exposure to the dollar. Trade tensions, the growth of sanctions, and rising political risk have contributed to this reevaluation, and China has moved from quietly expanding yuan usage for trade to explicitly naming its ultimate goal. Xi outlined the institutional foundations he believes are required to support reserve status: a powerful central bank with effective monetary control, globally competitive financial institutions, and international financial centers such as Shanghai and Shenzhen capable of attracting global capital and influencing global pricing. As for where things stand today, IMF data shows the yuan still has a long way to go. It currently makes up less than 2% of global foreign exchange reserves. The dollar still dominates with well over 57%, though it has declined from about 71% in 2000, and the euro is roughly 20%. China still has capital controls, and the currency is not fully convertible. Why would central banks want another fiat currency in their reserves? The attraction of the dollar and the euro lies in the backing of the United States and the institutional credibility behind them. The yuan’s appeal, according to the discussion, is that it is becoming a fiat currency with implicit gold backing. China’s officially reported gold holdings have risen to roughly 2,300 tons, per the World Gold Council, with steady year-after-year purchases, including at least fourteen consecutive months of net purchases through 2025. However, many analysts believe China holds more, with estimates based on trade flows, import data, and disclosure gaps suggesting true holdings closer to 3,005 tons, and some higher-end estimates proposing up to 10,000 tons or more. This gold accumulation serves as a hard asset anchor in an era where trust in fiat currencies is perceived to be weakening. China may be gearing up to offer an alternative linked to gold. It may not be ready to displace the dollar tomorrow, but it is clearly moving toward challenging King Dollar’s throne.

Japan, a major global creditor holding over a trillion dollars in US debt, has long fueled risky financial ventures via the yen carry trade. Despite the yen's strength, this is problematic. In 2024, the carry trade began unwinding, causing a yen spike, a Japanese stock flash crash, and broader market repercussions, including impacts on US stocks and Bitcoin. JPMorgan warned the unwinding was only halfway complete. In 2025, the unwinding continues with Japanese government bonds declining in value, rising long-term interest rates, and unsuccessful bond auctions. This slow unwinding of trillions in global leverage is causing investor concern, signaling the end of an era.

Speaker 0 lays out a sequence of observations and interpretations regarding financial markets and political moves. They begin by noting a pattern: gold and silver prices had been moving up by record amounts, the dollar had fallen to a four-year low in the dollar index, and the dollar had even fallen to an all-time record low against the Swiss franc, while the bond market was starting to roll over. From this, the speaker infers that something unusual and potentially destabilizing was occurring in the financial landscape, and they suggest that this situation prompted a response from the administration. The speaker then posits that Scott Bessent, along with other people who are close to the president, communicated a message to the president indicating that there was a problem that needed attention. In the speaker’s view, the Trump administration recognized the need to act in order to stop the perceived slide or derail the momentum of the developing situation and to buy some time. The implication is that the administration deliberately sought to intervene in the markets in a way that would slow or modify the trajectory of events. Following this assessment, the speaker asserts that the administration coordinated with short sellers and with big banks to target silver, suggesting a conspiratorial collaboration aimed at affecting market dynamics. This is presented as part of a broader strategy to exert influence and to create the impression that actions were being taken to counter the market’s movement. A key element of the narrative is the announcement of Kevin Walsh as the new chair of the Federal Reserve. The speaker describes there being a coordinated public relations campaign around Walsh’s appointment, implying that the public portrayal of the move was designed to show that Trump had done something unexpected. The narrative further claims that the campaign depicted Walsh as an inflation hawk and suggested that he might advocate for rate hikes and perhaps even return to quantitative tightening. Crucially, the speaker asserts that Walsh was selected because he has marching orders to do exactly what Donald Trump wants him to do. The claim is that, if this were not the case, Walsh would not have been chosen for the job. The speaker contrasts this with any public portrayal of Walsh as independent or hawkish in a neutral sense, arguing that those portrayals are not genuine according to the speaker’s interpretation. In sum, the transcript presents a view that a set of market signals prompted a deliberate, coordinated intervention by the Trump administration, including collaboration with short sellers, the strategic targeting of silver, and the appointment of Kevin Walsh to the Fed as a means to implement a policy direction aligned with the president’s objectives.

The Japanese yen has tumbled past 160 per USD without intervention from the Bank of Japan, potentially opening the path to 165. A Japanese official stated there isn't a particular level being watched. If there's a retracement from the dollar-yen's multi-decade highs, buying interest could reappear around the 158 support, aligning with the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level. Traders are watching US jobless claims data, Tokyo CPI, and US PCE releases.

So on Tuesday, the Turkish lira suffered its worst day since August 2018, falling 9% against the dollar with a new low of nearly 13 lira per dollar. If this sounds bad, then consider the fact that only a few years ago, it was about 3 lira per dollar, meaning that the lira has lost nearly 80% of its original value. As the lira has lost value, inflation has shot. If a tin of beans from The US is priced at $1, in 2016, it would have cost 3 lira. Today, the price of that same tin of beans would have inflated to nearly 13 lira. Turkey's annual inflation rate today then is about 20%, well above Turkey's historic average of between 510%. And for context, The UK is currently freaking out about the prospect of 4% inflation.

The Japanese yen is falling against the dollar because US interest rates are over 5%, while Japanese interest rates are close to zero. This interest rate differential is the primary driver of the yen's decline. The US dollar is also getting stronger against many other currencies, though to a lesser extent, due to the higher US interest rates.

The US dollar is showing signs of weakness. It has lost over 10% of its value in the last six months. This is the dollar's worst performance in more than fifty years. The last time this happened was in 1973. And to add insult to injury, other currencies are appreciating. Appreciating. The euro, for instance, has gained by over 12%. The Swiss franc is up by more than 13%. The Japanese yen, nearly 8%. Even gold is outperforming the U. S. Dollar. Gold has gained 25% this year. Plus, riskier currencies are doing better than the U. S. Dollar, like Ghana's CD, the Taiwanese dollar, and Mexico's peso. They have all registered double digit gains. So there is a clear shift. Investors are moving away from the U. Dollar. They haven't dumped the American currency yet, but they are certainly diversifying. They are trying to lower the risk.

Marco Rubio traveled to Germany for the Munich Security Conference and delivered what the program calls the most important American speech in the last thirty years, calling on Europe to join Trump's new world order or face the consequences. He told NATO allies that playtime is over and that a new world order is being written by the United States; Europe is asked to join, or face being left behind. Rubio framed NATO as a transaction between countries and said it is only worth defending if you are worth defending, accusing European leaders of managing Europe’s decline and warning that if Europe continues on a liberal, destructive path, the United States will be done with them. He criticized a liberal globalist agenda of a borderless world and mass immigration, and argued for reform of the existing international order rather than dismantling it. Rubio asserted that the old rules of the world are dead and that the West must adapt to a new era of geopolitics. He indicated that these are conversations he has been having with allies and other world leaders behind closed doors, and that these talks are accelerating. The speech conveyed a clear ultimatum: the US wants Europe with us, but is prepared to rebuild the global order alone if necessary. Rubio stated that the US would prefer to act with Europe, but would do so independently if Europe does not align. The discussion then ties these geopolitics to currency and economics. The US dollar’s role as the reserve currency and its strength are central to the old world order. The Trump administration is signaling that the strong dollar religion is over, with the dollar weakened in Trump’s second term to make US exports cheaper. Reuters is cited as reporting that China’s treasury holdings have dropped to their lowest level since 2008 as banks are urged to curb exposure to US treasuries, suggesting China is stepping back from funding America and that the burden may shift to US funding via domestic sources. The narrative contrasts this with China’s push for a stronger yuan and global reserve status, including potential expansion of currency use in trade, while Europe sits in the middle, invited to join the US-led shift or be sidelined. There is mention of a possible April Beijing trip by Trump to meet Xi Jinping. The segment also notes internal GOP dynamics, describing Rubio as a neocon favorite and predicting a contest between Rubio’s hawkish approach and JD Vance, who reportedly does not want broad war expansions. The speaker frames Rubio’s speech as a signal flare indicating a real-time reorganization of the West, with the dollar at the blast radius. The sponsor segment follows, tying the topics to critical minerals and a program named Project Vault, a $12 billion strategic reserve for precious minerals to protect the private sector from supply shocks. At a Critical Minerals Ministerial, JD Vance and Marco Rubio delivered a message to China about preventing market flooding from killing domestic projects. The sponsor promotes North American Niobium, a company exploring for niobium and two rare earths (neodymium and praseodymium), describing niobium as critical for aerospace and defense applications, with no domestic US production and 90% global supply controlled by Brazil. The company’s base includes Quebec, Canada, and it highlights leadership from Joseph Carrabas of Rio Tinto and Cliffs Natural Resources fame, and Carrie Lynn Findlay, a former Canadian cabinet minister. The ticker symbol NIOMF is provided, with notes that shares are tradable on major US brokerages, and a reminder for due diligence.

Over the past 13 years, the Japanese yen has fallen roughly in half versus the US dollar, creating both positive and negative impacts for the Japanese economy, specifically inflation. Decades of deflation made it difficult for the government to reduce its budget deficit, which typically ran around 6% of GDP, causing Japan's debt ratio to spiral to over 200% of GDP. Positive inflation has allowed them to reduce deficits and debt ratios, but at the cost of higher consumer prices. Businesses importing goods also face rising input costs. A Japanese Chamber of Commerce survey indicated that business owners believe the ideal yen level is between 100 and 130 versus the dollar, while it currently trades at 146. A rally could push Japan back towards deflation, derailing the government's fiscal gains achieved with a weaker yen.