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President Trump increased tariff threats via social media, this time targeting Apple. The Dow dropped .6% and Apple shares fell 3% following Trump's post stating phones sold in America should be made in America. The S&P and Nasdaq also declined.

Shares of Indian IT companies dropped around 9% due to concerns over a new bill aimed at revising the H-1B visa program. President Donald Trump is set to issue an executive order that will target H-1B and L-1 visas, raising fears about the potential negative impact on Indian IT firms.

The Japanese yen recently crashed past 150 to the dollar, a level the Bank of Japan was expected to defend, raising concerns of a potential global financial crisis. Japan's "zombie economy," supported by high public spending and zero interest rates, allows investors to earn significantly more in the US or Europe. This is causing capital flight from Japan, weakening the yen. The weaker yen has increased import prices, especially for energy and food, impacting Japanese consumers whose incomes have remained stagnant for 25 years. The Bank of Japan can't raise interest rates to strengthen the yen due to Japan's massive public debt, which is 267% of its GDP. Raising rates to US levels would make debt service unsustainable. Rising inflation may force the government and Bank of Japan to inject more money, potentially creating a cycle of further currency devaluation and rate increases. Japan's debt level could trigger a global debt crisis, dwarfing the crisis of 2008.

Japan is in stagflation, facing a weak economy, crashing yen, and rising prices. Unions secured significant pay hikes after years of stagnant wages, signaling inflation. Japan's massive debt raises concerns of a global financial crisis. Government spending may worsen stagflation. The situation mirrors the 1970s and 2008 crises, leading to potential economic turmoil. Governments worldwide are increasing spending, risking a return to the economic challenges of the past.

Japan, with 2% of the world's population, could disrupt the entire world. Despite government efforts, Japan's economy has faltered, with disappointing numbers from major auto companies and high rice prices. Japan is a major global creditor, holding over a trillion dollars in US Government debt. The yen carry trade, where investors borrow yen at low rates and invest in higher-yielding overseas assets, has powered risky financial bets for decades. However, the yen is getting stronger, which is problematic. In 2024, the unwinding of the carry trade caused a yen spike and a flash crash in Japanese stocks, impacting global markets. The unwinding continues in 2025, with Japanese government bonds collapsing and interest rates rising. This slow-motion unwinding of trillions in global leverage is making investors nervous. Japan's zero interest rates enabled the yen carry trade, a key financial strategy for 30 years.

The Dow Jones is down 1010 points, fueling recession fears. Inflation is up 21%, real wages down 2%. Joblessness increased over half a percent since January, signaling a possible recession. Tech giants like Microsoft, Alphabet, Meta, Amazon, and Apple are all down. Criticism is directed at policies stoking inflation and benefiting corporations at the expense of workers. The current stock market turmoil reflects long-standing economic struggles. This is attributed to "Bidenomics," which is proudly supported. Translation: The stock market is plummeting, raising concerns about a recession. Inflation is high, wages are low, and joblessness is increasing. Tech companies are experiencing significant losses. Policies favoring corporations over workers are criticized. The economic challenges are linked to the current administration's economic approach, known as "Bidenomics."

The first speaker warns of an international disaster and a potential World War III scenario, explaining that national gasoline could move toward roughly $3.50 to $3.70 a gallon if disruptions persist over the next week. They frame this as how the war starts showing up in family budgets and note that Box News reports the US economy lost 92,000 jobs in February. The second speaker introduces a Box News Alert: the US economy did not add jobs in February; it lost 92,000 jobs, with unemployment ticking up to 4.4%. The first speaker says the Labor Department tried to soften the data by pointing to strike activity, winter weather, seasonal factors, and post-Christmas effects, but argues those factors aren’t enough. They contend the real problem is the timing: a weaker labor market paired with a war-driven energy shock, which could revive stagflation fears and prompt markets to reassess. They point to one of the worst weeks in months for global bond markets and say traders worry the energy-driven inflation crisis will keep central banks more hawkish for longer. They reference the Cleveland Fed president suggesting a policy shift toward holding rates longer, with future rate cuts already sliding as markets brace for energy costs to feed into inflation data. The first speaker emphasizes that energy is central because higher oil affects more than oil itself: it flows into trucking, food, airfare, home building and real estate, appliances, freight, fertilizer, utility bills, and everything related to growing, moving, cooling, heating, packaging, and delivering goods. They claim it’s not theoretical and note that companies are already warning about rising costs across supply chains. They state that air and sea corridors through the Gulf have been dramatically disrupted. The speakers highlight an underreported angle: a viral Fox News Weekend segment in which hosts asserted that they have already beaten Iran, listing claims of how they are winning.

Berkshire almost invested $10 billion recently, but it wouldn't have done that much. What has happened in the last 30 to 100 days is really nothing. There have been three times since Berkshire was acquired that it has gone down 50% in a very short period. Nothing was fundamentally wrong with the company at any time. This has not been a huge move. The Dow Jones averaged at $381 in September 1929 and got down to 42, so that's like going from 100 to 11. This has not been a dramatic bear market or anything of the sort.

Japan, with only 2% of the world's population, could disrupt the entire world. Recent growth data shows Japan's economy has taken a step back. The country's three biggest auto industry names announced disappointing numbers and warned of rough waters ahead. Rice prices in Japan remain stubbornly high, causing consumers to struggle to afford food. The government has had limited success fixing the problem. Japan could increase interest rates in other countries, crash stock portfolios globally, and potentially trigger the next global recession.

Japan, a major global creditor holding over a trillion dollars in US debt, has long fueled risky financial ventures via the yen carry trade. Despite the yen's strength, this is problematic. In 2024, the carry trade began unwinding, causing a yen spike, a Japanese stock flash crash, and broader market repercussions, including impacts on US stocks and Bitcoin. JPMorgan warned the unwinding was only halfway complete. In 2025, the unwinding continues with Japanese government bonds declining in value, rising long-term interest rates, and unsuccessful bond auctions. This slow unwinding of trillions in global leverage is causing investor concern, signaling the end of an era.

Evergrande, the world's largest property developer, has gone bankrupt, causing an 8% drop in indexes. This is part of a larger issue in China, where all public or listed property developers are facing default bankruptcy. China's economy heavily relied on real estate for growth, but now the sector is collapsing after an unregulated climb. The situation is comparable to the US financial crisis, but with three and a half times more banking leverage. China's regulators are trying to protect individuals from short sellers, but the situation is expected to worsen.

The Japanese yen has tumbled past 160 per USD without intervention from the Bank of Japan, potentially opening the path to 165. A Japanese official stated there isn't a particular level being watched. If there's a retracement from the dollar-yen's multi-decade highs, buying interest could reappear around the 158 support, aligning with the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level. Traders are watching US jobless claims data, Tokyo CPI, and US PCE releases.

Speaker 1 says our food today is largely artificial, what he calls shadow food. Soils are largely depleted for many generations, and without adding fertilizers (N, P, and K), crops do not produce hardly at all. There is a nonlinear response: if you reduce fertilizer by 10% on a high-fertilizer crop like corn, you get far more than a 10% reduction in yield—perhaps a 30% reduction for certain crops. This is why American farmers are switching from corn to soy, a legume that doesn’t need as much fertilizer. This shift will affect dietary habits as well, including more soy lattes and soybeans/tofu. He notes the bottom line: our food depends on a supply chain that comes out of the Persian Gulf, and few people realized that until recently. Speaker 0 asks whether the catastrophe is due to man-made causes (the war and its consequences) or a system that is too fragile. Speaker 1 responds: both. Population growth is strongly tied to low-cost food production and abundance. For a long time, the United States and other countries encouraged populations to eat more and have more children, reflecting the original USDA food guidance years ago. That era served post-World War II needs because malnutrition and stillbirths were higher then. Today, the problem is Americans overeating but undernourished—getting too many calories but not enough nutrition—because food has been transformed into shadow food. It looks like a head of lettuce but lacks the nutrition of wild lettuce or what US soils used to produce with trace minerals like selenium, zinc, and copper. Food results from turning hydrocarbons into something you can eat: gas makes fertilizer; oil powers tractors and transport to grocery stores. Cheap energy yields cheap food; scarce energy yields scarce food. It will hit some areas first and more severely than others. It won’t be as severe in the United States as elsewhere. US consumers’ ability to handle economic pain is limited because many families are living paycheck to paycheck, without a large savings cushion, unlike cultures like Japan that can weather famines more easily. Speaker 0 ends with “Bright videos.”

Today, the S&P 500 reached a historic milestone by surpassing 5,000 points for the first time ever. This index is considered a more comprehensive representation of the American economy and markets compared to the Dow 30. It has achieved five consecutive weeks of gains, setting a new record.

Revenues from the S&P 500 are 41% foreign-based, so multinational companies are scrambling due to tariffs. Nike stock is not doing well, and they won't increase consumer prices by 25% to stay competitive, as that would hurt sales and plummet their stock. Instead, they will absorb tariffs and bring manufacturing back to the U.S. Ford and Toyota are already doing this. Ford is offering employee pricing, and Toyota is running a campaign to highlight cars made in the U.S. Countries where corporations are based don't want them to move. The only way to hurt a mega-corporation is to hit them in the pocket. Smart companies like Microsoft, Apple, Toyota, and Honda have already moved to the U.S. Hyundai invested in a U.S. plant during Trump's first term. The stock market reflects the "punch to the gut" for corporations operating abroad but registered in the U.S. These companies must return to the U.S. or risk pricing themselves out of the market.

When people stop believing in the economy, they usually stop spending, and that's exactly what's beginning to happen. In March, the conference board's expectations index fell to 65.2, well below the recession warning threshold of 80. Meanwhile, the University of Michigan's consumer sentiment index kicked off April with a reading of 50.8, just barely above the all time low of 50 that hit in June 2022. Translation, people are nervous about what's next, and that matters. Sentiment drives behavior. And in an economy that relies heavily on consumer spending, fear alone can slow everything down.

The Japanese yen is falling against the dollar because US interest rates are over 5%, while Japanese interest rates are close to zero. This interest rate differential is the primary driver of the yen's decline. The US dollar is also getting stronger against many other currencies, though to a lesser extent, due to the higher US interest rates.

On 04/29/2024, the Japanese yen significantly increased against the dollar. Reports indicate Japanese authorities intervened in the market, causing the yen's rise. This intervention is a relief for traders anticipating action to support the yen. The yen's recent decline to levels unseen in over thirty years had pressured Japanese borders and policymakers. The intervention has provided some respite.