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Glenn: Welcome back with professor Richard Wolff to discuss economic fury, the economic weaponization of the US campaign against Iran. How do you assess this effort, given the mix of oil sanctions, open markets for oil, and port blockades? Wolff: I’ll be blunt: I don’t know how to answer cleanly because the statements keep flipping on/off and have become “herky jerky.” The steps are inconsistent, sometimes increasing supply of oil and pushing down prices, other times constraining it. It’s not clear which way any given move will go, and the sequence is hard to parse. He notes that Gulf states are pressing for dollar swaps—foreign central banks can access dollars via swaps rather than buying them on markets. These swaps have shifted from weekly to daily, signaling worry about dollar access. The Gulf states—UAE and others—allege they depend on dollar-denominated oil revenues to service debts incurred through investments abroad. If dollars tighten due to strait closures and sanctions, they may be forced to sell assets in the US, including Treasury securities, which would lower bond prices and raise interest rates, potentially triggering a US recession. They could also sell holdings in the American stock market, affecting prices. Wolff emphasizes this as a surface manifestation of a broader global liquidity and debt dilemma tied to the Persian Gulf and the dollar’s role in the world economy. Glenn: So essentially the petrodollar is being unraveled because if Gulf states price and sell oil in dollars, but if they’re not exporting and not receiving dollars, they can’t pay debts or roll them over. They might sell treasuries or assets to cover shortfalls. How far can the US hold this position? Wolff: I don’t have a crystal ball, but I think the likely scenario is a political and economic squeeze. Trump has lost parts of his base—issues like the Epstein file and the economy’s inflation and job market. He relies on a narrative of victory; his base may be shrinking, while the wealthier 10% who own stock might be more supportive as the stock market stays buoyant. If the Gulf states must exchange dollars for debt relief or to cover losses, the government may have to grant more dollar swaps to prevent a spike in interest rates and a stock sell-off. Steven Bannon has warned that war could cost Trump the election, so the administration may shore up swaps to protect markets. Wolff suggests this is a desperate regime trying to exit a bad position with minimal damage. Glenn: You describe a broader pattern: the petrodollar’s decline, and the US dollar’s dwindling centrality in global reserves. How does this fit into the larger arc of American empire and capitalism? Wolff: It fits as part of the decline of the American empire and the corresponding decline of American capitalism. BRICS, China’s rise, and the shift away from dollar-dominated trade illuminate a trend toward reduced dollar dominance. Sanctions in Ukraine exposed the limits of that model, and there’s growing acceptance of payments outside the dollar for oil. The United States remains influential, but the dollar’s dominance is waning, and there’s no clear strategy to reverse that trend. Manufacturing has moved to other countries, notably China, which maintains low inflation and large-scale production. The world is moving toward multipolar arrangements, and the dollar’s preeminence is no longer assured. Glenn: Given this trajectory, is there any viable way to salvage the petrodollar, or is it beyond rescue? Wolff: I don’t predict the future with certainty, but I view the larger context as a decline in American hegemony and an erosion of dollar dominance. The war in Iran, like the war in Ukraine, demonstrates the limits of sanctions and the unintended consequences of aggressive confrontation. The dollar’s global reserve role is shrinking, and other powers are willing to transact outside it. He emphasizes this as a systemic shift, not a temporary setback. Glenn: Any final thoughts on how history and memory shape current policy? Wolff: History often gets reframed to fit current aims. There’s a tendency to present “victories” regardless of outcome, especially in wartime rhetoric. The dialogue in Europe and the US reflects a mix of nostalgia for past dominance and struggle to adapt to a changing global order. The conversation ends with questions about how Europe and the US should reorient foreign policy toward a multipolar world, where old assumptions no longer hold.

The Department of Treasury is issuing record levels of debt, with $7 trillion issued in just 3 months and $23 trillion in a year. This has bloated the treasury market, raising concerns about a potential crash. The economy is propped up by debt, with federal debt rising by $1 trillion every 90 days. US treasuries are seen as cash but are actually promises to pay back in the future. The illusion that all debt will be repaid is crucial, as any doubts could lead to a financial system collapse. Fiscal trends are worsening, with a $2 trillion deficit that will increase during a recession. Collapse seems inevitable without intervention. Visit profsaintonj.com for more details.

The US dollar is the bedrock of the world's financial system, and a rapidly rising dollar can destabilize financial markets. Despite the US printing many dollars, global demand is so high that the supply isn't enough, preventing rising US inflation. The risk comes when other economies slow down relative to the US. With less economic activity, fewer dollars circulate globally, increasing the price as countries chase them to pay for goods and service debts. This creates a "dollar milkshake" effect, forcing countries to devalue their currencies as the dollar rises. The US becomes a safe haven, sucking in capital and further increasing the dollar's value, potentially leading to a sovereign bond and currency crisis. Central banks may try to intervene, but the momentum can become unstoppable. The world is stuck with the dollar underpinning the global financial system, so everyone needs to pay attention to the dollar milkshake theory.

America is trying to change the rules in the gold and cryptocurrency markets. They note a 35 trillion dollar debt and describe it as part of the world’s two alternative currency market segments. Washington’s actions in this direction clearly demonstrate one of the main American objectives: they want to solve the problem of declining trust in the U.S. dollar, as it was in the 1930s and the 1970s, by solving their financial problems at the expense of the world and driving everyone into the crypto cloud. Over time, when part of the U.S. national debt is placed in stablecoins, the United States will devalue that debt. In simple terms: they have a 35-trillion-dollar debt, they are pushing it into crypto, into the cloud, they are devaluing it, and they are starting from scratch. This is for those who are enthusiastic about crypto.

The Japanese yen recently crashed past 150 to the dollar, a level the Bank of Japan was expected to defend, raising concerns of a potential global financial crisis. Japan's "zombie economy," supported by high public spending and zero interest rates, allows investors to earn significantly more in the US or Europe. This is causing capital flight from Japan, weakening the yen. The weaker yen has increased import prices, especially for energy and food, impacting Japanese consumers whose incomes have remained stagnant for 25 years. The Bank of Japan can't raise interest rates to strengthen the yen due to Japan's massive public debt, which is 267% of its GDP. Raising rates to US levels would make debt service unsustainable. Rising inflation may force the government and Bank of Japan to inject more money, potentially creating a cycle of further currency devaluation and rate increases. Japan's debt level could trigger a global debt crisis, dwarfing the crisis of 2008.

Japan is in stagflation, facing a weak economy, crashing yen, and rising prices. Unions secured significant pay hikes after years of stagnant wages, signaling inflation. Japan's massive debt raises concerns of a global financial crisis. Government spending may worsen stagflation. The situation mirrors the 1970s and 2008 crises, leading to potential economic turmoil. Governments worldwide are increasing spending, risking a return to the economic challenges of the past.

Japan, with 2% of the world's population, could disrupt the entire world. Despite government efforts, Japan's economy has faltered, with disappointing numbers from major auto companies and high rice prices. Japan is a major global creditor, holding over a trillion dollars in US Government debt. The yen carry trade, where investors borrow yen at low rates and invest in higher-yielding overseas assets, has powered risky financial bets for decades. However, the yen is getting stronger, which is problematic. In 2024, the unwinding of the carry trade caused a yen spike and a flash crash in Japanese stocks, impacting global markets. The unwinding continues in 2025, with Japanese government bonds collapsing and interest rates rising. This slow-motion unwinding of trillions in global leverage is making investors nervous. Japan's zero interest rates enabled the yen carry trade, a key financial strategy for 30 years.

On August 5, Japan's Nikkei 225 stock index plunged 12.4%, the worst day since Black Monday in 1987, amid investor concerns about the U.S. economy. The market closed down 4,451 points at 31,458, the largest points drop in history, erasing all gains for the year. At one point, it sank 13.4%. The market is worried about a potential U.S. recession risk, with Japan being the most affected market in Asia. Mitsubishi, Mitsui, and Sumitomo all plunged close to 14%, with Mitsui losing almost 20% of its market cap. The broader Topix index fell 12.8%. The Nikkei 225 dropped 5.8% earlier in August, marking its worst two-day decline ever. U.S. stocks fell sharply after a weaker-than-expected jobs report for July. The Nasdaq entered correction territory, down over 10% from its record high. The S&P 500 and Dow were 5.7% and 3.9% below their all-time highs, respectively. Concerns about the U.S. economy and the Bank of Japan's rate hike are driving risk-averse sentiment.

Despite hotter-than-expected inflation in Japan, the yen continues to weaken due to Governor Ueda's dovish comments. Inflation is generally in line with expectations, with some technical adjustments for energy subsidies. The Bank of Japan is torn amid domestic and external uncertainties. Externally, there are concerns about a potential Trump 2.0 administration and Scott Bessent replacing Yellen as Treasury Secretary, which could lead to yen volatility. Domestically, the new Ishiba administration faces challenges, similar to Trump's early struggles in 2016, limiting the BOJ's ability to hike rates. While yen weakness at $1.60 is a concern for Ishiba, the BOJ is standing pat. However, the BOJ is often behind the market, and if the dollar-yen trend continues to $1.60, the Minister of Finance might intervene, potentially forcing a rate hike in January.

The global financial system relies on the US dollar, and a rapidly rising dollar can destabilize markets. Despite the US printing dollars, global demand remains high for trade, debt servicing, and reserves. Countries need dollars to buy commodities like copper, oil, and soybeans, creating constant demand. The US benefits from this system, controlling access and settlement. A slowdown in other economies coupled with US growth can create a dollar shortage, raising its price and hurting countries needing dollars to pay for goods and debts. This leads to a "dollar milkshake" effect, forcing countries to devalue their currencies and causing capital to flow into the US as a safe haven. This can trigger sovereign bond and currency crises, with central banks unable to stop the momentum. The lack of alternatives to the dollar means the world is stuck with it, making the "dollar milkshake theory" a critical risk to monitor.

Japan, with only 2% of the world's population, could disrupt the entire world. Recent growth data shows Japan's economy has taken a step back. The country's three biggest auto industry names announced disappointing numbers and warned of rough waters ahead. Rice prices in Japan remain stubbornly high, causing consumers to struggle to afford food. The government has had limited success fixing the problem. Japan could increase interest rates in other countries, crash stock portfolios globally, and potentially trigger the next global recession.

The US fiscal deficit is decoupling from unemployment, entering a new era where deficits remain high despite low unemployment. This matters because it impacts asset prices, especially scarce ones like gold and Bitcoin. Historically, gold prices correlated with real interest rates, but this relationship decoupled around 2022. Federal debt growth now consistently outpaces private sector debt growth, impairing the Fed's ability to control credit growth through interest rates. This fiscal train is unstoppable due to several factors. High debt levels combined with interest rates that can't go much lower are making interest expenses a meaningful part of the federal budget. The Social Security trust fund is projected to deplete, leading to increased spending. The fiat system relies on continuous debt growth, making deleveraging difficult. The system is like a Ponzi scheme that requires constant expansion. The US is repeating a pattern seen in the 1940s, switching to federal debt growth and large deficits. This is inflationary and persistent because raising interest rates exacerbates the deficit. This relentless deficit growth contrasts sharply with Bitcoin's scarcity and transparency, making it a valuable asset to own.

Larry Johnson and Glenn discuss the shifting dynamics of the US dollar, the international financial system, and the rise of competing powers. - Johnson recalls the 1965 term exorbitant privilege describing the US dollar’s reserve-currency advantages. In 1971, the US closed the gold window, ending fixed gold value for the dollar; the dollar later became backed by “our promise,” enabling the petrodollar system as oil purchases were conducted in dollars. The dollar’s dominance rested on predictability, a stable legal system, and non-abusive use of the dollar as an economic tool rather than a political weapon. - Trump-era sanctions expanded broadly, impacting friends and adversaries alike, and BRICS nations began moving away from the dollar. Russia’s disconnection from SWIFT after its 2022 actions is noted as a turning point that encouraged the BRICS’ development of alternative financial infrastructure, including China’s cross-border interbank payment system (CIPS). This shift accelerates the decline of the dollar’s dominance. - Nations like Russia and China (and India, Brazil) are unloading US Treasuries and increasing gold and silver holdings. This is tied to concerns about the dollar’s reliability and the reduced faith in paper promises. The BRICS countries reportedly plan a currency tied to gold, with components of their reserves backing individual BRICS currencies, signaling a structural move away from the dollar. - The paper-gold issue is central: for every ounce of real gold, there is a range of 20-to-1 to 100-to-1 in paper gold. This disparity can undermine trust in the paper promise and create a run on physical gold. The price gap between New York (lower) and Shanghai (higher) for gold demonstrates a market dislocation and growing demand for physical metal. - Glenn emphasizes that a unipolar dollar system allows the US to run large deficits via inflation, which acts as a hidden tax on global dollar holders. Weaponizing the dollar through sanctions challenges trust and accelerates decoupling, prompting other nations to seek alternatives to reduce exposure. - Johnson argues that the US is confronting a historic realignment: the Bretton Woods order is dissolving, the dollar’s international dominance is waning, and sanctions and coercive policies are provoking pushback. He highlights Japan as a major remaining dollar treasuries holder that is now offloading, further increasing dollar supply and depressing its value. - The geopolitical implications are significant. Johnson warns that potential US actions against Iran—given their strategic position and the Gulf oil supply—could trigger a severe global disruption, including a price surge in oil. He notes that such actions would complicate global stability and magnify inflationary pressures. - The discussion also covers NATO’s cohesion, Western attempts to shape global alignments, and how rapidly shifting leverage could undermine existing alliances. Johnson suggests that Russia’s strategic gains in the war in Ukraine, combined with Western missteps, may prompt a rapid reevaluation of settlements and borders, while also noting that Russia’s position has hardened. - On Venezuela, Johnson argues that the stated pretexts (drug trafficking, oil control) were questionable and points to economic motives, including revenue opportunities for political allies like Paul Singer, and to Greenland’s strategic interests as possible motivators for US actions. - Looking ahead, Johnson predicts hyperinflation for the United States as the dollar loses value globally, while gold and silver retain value. He asserts that the ruble and yuan may hold value better, and that a mass shift toward de-dollarization is likely to continue, potentially culminating in a new multipolar financial order. - Both speakers agree that trust and predictability are crucial; the current trajectory—threats, sanctions, and unilateral actions—undermines trust and accelerates the move toward alternative currencies and stronger physical-commodity holdings. The overall tone is that a pivotal, watershed moment is unfolding in the global monetary system.

Peter Schiff, CEO of Euro Pacific Asset Management and host of The Peter Schiff Show, joins the discussion to assess the economic and market implications of ongoing geopolitical tensions, monetary policy, and structural issues in the US and global economy. Schiff argues that the Iran-related conflict is highly disruptive to supply chains, especially in energy and agriculture, and warns that markets are overly optimistic about a quick resolution and a rapid drop in oil prices. He says the war may not end soon, could restart, and that even deep peace deals might unravel. He expects oil prices to remain elevated or not revert to pre-war levels, with prices pressured higher by factors beyond the war, notably a weakening US dollar. He notes that the dollar’s weakness is likely to resume as the conflict subsides, which would also push bond yields higher, alongside rising deficits, more money printing, and inflation. On the dollar, Schiff highlights a diminished dollar rally in response to risk, pointing out that the dollar has largely stagnated after the initial reaction. He predicts a slow decline followed by a rapid collapse, describing the transition as something that could be quick once it begins. He emphasizes that the fiscal trajectory is worsening due to higher military spending, baseline deficits, and autopilot interest costs with higher rates, with insufficient political willingness to reverse spending. Regarding international demand for US treasuries, Schiff describes a reflexive safety move into the dollar during wartime, but notes that foreign demand is waning as deficits grow. He cites a trend of markets moving capital out of dollars and treasuries into gold, a trend he expects to continue, including among major holders like China. He explains that China is diversifying its reserves away from the dollar, increasing gold holdings, and moving toward alternative currencies, signaling a strategic shift away from the dollar. Schiff critiques government intervention in markets, citing the Spirit Airlines bankruptcy case and the canceled JetBlue-Spirit merger as examples of missteps. He argues that government actions and antitrust policies can hinder competition and long-term efficiency, ultimately reducing overall market outcomes. He claims tariffs are not a solution for reindustrialization and asserts that a root cause of deindustrialization is the reliance on an overvalued dollar, which had enabled a consumption-based economy funded by foreign production and lending. On energy and and agricultural costs, Schiff explains that higher prices constrain discretionary spending, leading to weaker job creation in affected sectors. While the US is a net energy exporter, the broader economy does not benefit from energy price spikes due to higher costs for consumers and producers, even though oil producers may gain. Turning to investment strategy, Schiff recommends exposure to precious metals, commodities, and emerging markets, arguing that smart money is moving in those directions. He promotes Europe Pacific Asset Management, Shift Gold, and gold/silver as hedges, encouraging listeners to engage with his funds and resources. He also discusses Europe’s investment landscape, noting that while Europe has problems, selective European companies with growth potential and exposure to emerging markets could benefit when the dollar declines. Schiff closes by inviting listeners to follow him on shiftradio.com, his YouTube channel, and X, emphasizing his goal of sharing what he sees as the truth and expanding his audience to counter what he describes as a chorus of lies.

The Japanese yen has tumbled past 160 per USD without intervention from the Bank of Japan, potentially opening the path to 165. A Japanese official stated there isn't a particular level being watched. If there's a retracement from the dollar-yen's multi-decade highs, buying interest could reappear around the 158 support, aligning with the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level. Traders are watching US jobless claims data, Tokyo CPI, and US PCE releases.

Jeff and Mario discuss what a trade war, dollar dominance, gold, and de-dollarization mean for the US and the world. They emphasize that gold is a portfolio asset and a safe haven, not a monetary instrument intended to replace the dollar, and that gold’s strength comes from concerns about risky assets rather than inflation alone. Gold’s recent rally is explained as a response to macroeconomic downturn risks and questions around equities like Nvidia, rather than as an inflation hedge, with gold resuming strength as conditions signal downturns. Key points on the dollar and eurodollars: - The dollar remains dominant because there is no replacement for its functions; replacing the dollar system would be like recreating the internet from scratch. - The eurodollar system is a vast, opaque, ledger-based network of offshore US dollar balances that enables global money movement. It is not tied to physical dollars and operates as bank ledgers and interbank communication, making it hard to measure and control. - De-dollarization is described as a political narrative rather than a mechanical monetary shift; central banks sell dollar assets primarily to cope with dollar shortages and liquidity constraints, not to replace the dollar with gold. - The eurodollar system began partly to protect against asset seizure and to provide flexible settlement outside the US jurisdiction; it remains central to global finance and is resistant to rapid replacement. On dollar reserves and central banks: - The share of US dollars in official foreign reserves has declined from about 72% to 58%, but this is not considered a meaningful shift in reserve mechanics; the real impact is in settlements and the dominance of the dollar in 90% of FX settlements. - Yuan and other currencies have risen in FX settlements but do not displace the dollar; they compete to be on the other side of US dollar transactions. - The dollar’s dominance is maintained by the depth and liquidity of Treasury markets; gold serves as a store of value but is not liquid collateral in the same way as Treasuries. Gold, debt, and safety: - Central banks buy gold to diversify reserves and stabilize currencies (e.g., China as a reserve diversification tool and yuan stabilizer). Gold is a store of value, not a primary liquidity instrument. - US debt is criticized as a long-term restraint on growth, but the speaker argues that demand for safety and liquidity keeps demand for US Treasuries robust, preventing a collapse of the Treasury market despite rising deficits. - Gold’s surge is tied to deflationary pressures, banking fragility, and concerns about consumer and corporate credit risk. If collateral quality deteriorates and credit risk grows, demand for safe assets rises, pushing gold higher. On the US and global economies: - The US faces deteriorating credit conditions, with concerns about consumer and corporate credit and collateral issues (e.g., Tricolor, First Republic-like risks); this supports gold’s role as a safe haven. - China faces deflationary pressure, overproduction challenges, and difficulty stimulating domestic demand; this weakens its growth and complicates its role in global demand. - The US and China are in a global trade tension, with potential shifts in productivity and supply chains; the discussion suggests a move toward a multipolar world rather than a simple US decline. Alternative payment and currency developments: - Bitcoin is viewed as a store of value akin to a Nasdaq stock, not a widely usable currency; it could be a modernized version of gold but lacks practical liquidity at scale. - Stablecoins are expected to evolve toward genuine stable value systems, potentially maturing into independent stablecoins that do not rely solely on the dollar. Implications for Russia, Argentina, and other economies: - Russia’s economy remains resilient due to structural factors and, crucially, support from China; fears of quick collapse have not materialized as feared. - Argentina’s experience illustrates eurodollar system constraints; IMF support can be transient, and sustained relief requires more than policy fixes, as the eurodollar network ultimately governs outcomes. Future scenarios and conclusions: - If China and the US escalate, the eurodollar system would likely shrink to a rump, with greater demand for the eurodollar settlement; instability could rise as the system reallocates around non-cooperating powers. - The emergence of private digital currencies and evolving stablecoins could gradually replace some functions of the eurodollar, but a complete replacement would be slow and complex. - The overall outlook is for a more multipolar world, with the US economy continuing to face structural challenges but not a complete collapse; the eurodollar system would gradually adapt to new technologies and currencies, potentially enabling continued but transformed global monetary flows.

Peter Schiff and the hosts discuss how surging gold and silver prices relate to potential banking instability and a broader dollar crisis. Key points: - Silver production is about 800,000,000 ounces per year, while bank shorts on silver are claimed at 4,400,000,000 ounces according to some reports. The implication is that if silver continues to rise, the biggest banks in America could face severe coverage challenges for their short positions. The discussion notes that many banks are “barely covering their asses to stay afloat.” - Gold and silver price levels are highlighted: gold at about $4,600 per ounce after a bounce, and silver at about $92 per ounce. Peter Schiff, introduced as a silver and gold expert and economist, has authored The Real Crash, How to Save Yourself and Your Country, and America’s Coming Bankruptcy. The host mentions the book. - Peter Schiff’s perspective on timing and crisis: he says the 2013 book predicted the current situation and that gold and silver have risen significantly—gold up, silver up substantially. He believes the price moves signal a major warning of a financial or economic crisis, comparing it to the subprime warning before the 2008 crisis. He asserts this time the warning concerns the U.S. government sovereign credit and a potential dollar crisis and U.S. Treasury crisis, possibly unfolding next year. - Connection to global debt and the dollar: Schiff explains that much debt is sustainable because the U.S. dollar serves as the global reserve currency, enabling continued spending. He notes foreign central banks buying gold instead of U.S. Treasuries, moving out of dollars into gold, and cites U.S. intervention in oil-rich Venezuela as part of broader moves to keep oil prices down. He argues that the dollar’s reserve status is eroding, and a meaningful decline in the dollar relative to other currencies could soon impact consumer prices and interest rates, leading to higher costs for Americans. - Impact on the average person: Schiff asserts that the reserve currency status has long supported a standard of living that relies on importing goods paid for with dollars created “out of thin air.” As the dollar collapses and the world shifts away from the dollar, the dollars earned and saved by ordinary people will buy less, with price spikes across goods and services. He suggests a future scenario where prices rise dramatically while wages do not keep pace, giving an example of a hamburger potentially rising from $15 to $30 or $50, and services versus goods diverging in price movement. - Preparation and investment stance: Schiff emphasizes that gold and silver have performed well since the turn of the century, outperforming the Dow in real terms. He argues for moving wealth into real money rather than paper assets and notes, in general terms, opportunities in mining stocks as a hedge, including juniors and mid-tier producers. He references the broader strategy of diversifying out of U.S. stocks, bonds, and dollars to protect wealth during what he describes as a coming real crisis; he stresses focusing on real assets rather than relying on the dollar. - Final remarks: Schiff reiterates that the crisis is coming and that some Americans should consider protecting wealth through precious metals and mining opportunities, while the hosts acknowledge the outlook and thank him for the insights.

The Japanese yen is falling against the dollar because US interest rates are over 5%, while Japanese interest rates are close to zero. This interest rate differential is the primary driver of the yen's decline. The US dollar is also getting stronger against many other currencies, though to a lesser extent, due to the higher US interest rates.

On 04/29/2024, the Japanese yen significantly increased against the dollar. Reports indicate Japanese authorities intervened in the market, causing the yen's rise. This intervention is a relief for traders anticipating action to support the yen. The yen's recent decline to levels unseen in over thirty years had pressured Japanese borders and policymakers. The intervention has provided some respite.

Donald Trump’s second term is accelerating the US dollar’s downfall and could reshape the global monetary system in a manner reminiscent of Nixon’s 1971 move ending the Bretton Woods era, according to Guangzhou, chief economist at Bank of China’s investment arm. Trump’s aggressive tariffs rolled out in April are rattling global trade and finance to their core, with Guangzhou drawing a chilling parallel to the Nixon shock. The dollar’s grip on global reserves has fallen to a thirty-year low of 56.32% in Q2, down 1.47 percentage points. Nations are ditching US assets in droves, with net purchases plunging 94.4% to a mere $510,000,000, based on US Treasury data. Guangzhou notes that Trump’s war on the Fed’s independence is eroding confidence in US policy, making this meltdown dwarf the chaos of the 1970s. For China, this scenario presents prime timing to influence the currency landscape. Guangzhou urges Beijing to turbocharge the yuan’s global rise by expanding financial clout. The proposed path includes swinging open financial gates, syncing with international norms, unleashing innovative yuan tools, and supercharging Shanghai and Hong Kong as powerhouse hubs. As the dollar fades, the yuan could rise, potentially ushering in a multipolar currency showdown. If you’re craving razor-sharp geopolitical breakdowns like this, subscribe to New Rules Geopolitics to stay on top of global trends.

Marco Rubio traveled to Germany for the Munich Security Conference and delivered what the program calls the most important American speech in the last thirty years, calling on Europe to join Trump's new world order or face the consequences. He told NATO allies that playtime is over and that a new world order is being written by the United States; Europe is asked to join, or face being left behind. Rubio framed NATO as a transaction between countries and said it is only worth defending if you are worth defending, accusing European leaders of managing Europe’s decline and warning that if Europe continues on a liberal, destructive path, the United States will be done with them. He criticized a liberal globalist agenda of a borderless world and mass immigration, and argued for reform of the existing international order rather than dismantling it. Rubio asserted that the old rules of the world are dead and that the West must adapt to a new era of geopolitics. He indicated that these are conversations he has been having with allies and other world leaders behind closed doors, and that these talks are accelerating. The speech conveyed a clear ultimatum: the US wants Europe with us, but is prepared to rebuild the global order alone if necessary. Rubio stated that the US would prefer to act with Europe, but would do so independently if Europe does not align. The discussion then ties these geopolitics to currency and economics. The US dollar’s role as the reserve currency and its strength are central to the old world order. The Trump administration is signaling that the strong dollar religion is over, with the dollar weakened in Trump’s second term to make US exports cheaper. Reuters is cited as reporting that China’s treasury holdings have dropped to their lowest level since 2008 as banks are urged to curb exposure to US treasuries, suggesting China is stepping back from funding America and that the burden may shift to US funding via domestic sources. The narrative contrasts this with China’s push for a stronger yuan and global reserve status, including potential expansion of currency use in trade, while Europe sits in the middle, invited to join the US-led shift or be sidelined. There is mention of a possible April Beijing trip by Trump to meet Xi Jinping. The segment also notes internal GOP dynamics, describing Rubio as a neocon favorite and predicting a contest between Rubio’s hawkish approach and JD Vance, who reportedly does not want broad war expansions. The speaker frames Rubio’s speech as a signal flare indicating a real-time reorganization of the West, with the dollar at the blast radius. The sponsor segment follows, tying the topics to critical minerals and a program named Project Vault, a $12 billion strategic reserve for precious minerals to protect the private sector from supply shocks. At a Critical Minerals Ministerial, JD Vance and Marco Rubio delivered a message to China about preventing market flooding from killing domestic projects. The sponsor promotes North American Niobium, a company exploring for niobium and two rare earths (neodymium and praseodymium), describing niobium as critical for aerospace and defense applications, with no domestic US production and 90% global supply controlled by Brazil. The company’s base includes Quebec, Canada, and it highlights leadership from Joseph Carrabas of Rio Tinto and Cliffs Natural Resources fame, and Carrie Lynn Findlay, a former Canadian cabinet minister. The ticker symbol NIOMF is provided, with notes that shares are tradable on major US brokerages, and a reminder for due diligence.

Over the past 13 years, the Japanese yen has fallen roughly in half versus the US dollar, creating both positive and negative impacts for the Japanese economy, specifically inflation. Decades of deflation made it difficult for the government to reduce its budget deficit, which typically ran around 6% of GDP, causing Japan's debt ratio to spiral to over 200% of GDP. Positive inflation has allowed them to reduce deficits and debt ratios, but at the cost of higher consumer prices. Businesses importing goods also face rising input costs. A Japanese Chamber of Commerce survey indicated that business owners believe the ideal yen level is between 100 and 130 versus the dollar, while it currently trades at 146. A rally could push Japan back towards deflation, derailing the government's fiscal gains achieved with a weaker yen.