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A speaker emphasizes shifting focus away from Saudi Arabia and toward Venezuela, stating that the country has more oil, infinite potential, and will open markets. The plan is to privatize all industry and move government operations out of the old sector. The speaker highlights Venezuela’s huge resources—oil, gas, minerals, land, technology—and notes its strategic location relative to the United States. The message asserts that American companies are in a “super strategic position to invest,” and that Venezuela will be “the brightest opportunity for investment of American companies, of good people that are going to make a lot of money.”

Speaker 1 argues that Cuba should make a deal and asks what that deal would entail and what Cuba should do. He describes Cuba as currently a failed nation, noting that they “don’t even have jet fuel to get for airplanes to take off” and that they are “plugging up their runway.” He says that the United States is talking to Cuba and to Marco Rubio, and asserts that Cuba should absolutely make a deal because it is a humanitarian threat. He emphasizes that many Cuban Americans will be very happy when they can return to greet their relatives and do things that they should have been allowed to do for a long time. He states his interest in the people who were “treated so badly by Castro and the Cuban authorities” and notes that they “have been treated horribly,” adding that they will see how it all turns out as “Cuba and us, we are talking.” Speaker 0 asks whether that would be a good deal. Speaker 1 responds by outlining the current situation: there is an embargo, there is no oil, there is no money, and there is “no anything.” He then asks rhetorically whether, if a deal isn’t made, the United States would consider an operation like the one in Venezuela. He says he doesn’t want to answer that, suggesting it would not be a very tough operation if he did answer, but states he does not think such an operation will be necessary. He concludes with “Mister president.”

I left troops in Syria to take the oil, not to protect. Maybe we should take it, but we have the oil. Military experts disagree with Trump's plan to take oil from Iraq, saying it's dangerous and irrational. This could be his downfall.

"Who cares if Venezuela is run by some corrupt, petty tyrant? It's South America. They're all like that. It's always been like that. Just take their shit. Get as many countries on our side of the ledger so that we can take their shit. I don't know. Is that complicated? But on the other side of this debate, you have the ideological neocons like Rubio, like John Ratcliffe, the CIA director. You have these other people that insist. No, that's not good enough. We need a US puppet in place. We need a this female resistance leader that's pro democracy. Their election was fake. Dude, our election was fake. You think our elections are real? They said Maduro lost the twenty twenty four election. Yeah, Biden lost the twenty twenty election. We wanna start with that? This is a historic phone call. I actually probably favor regime change in Venezuela, to be honest. I think that that is a perfectly legitimate strategic goal of The United States. You know, we talk all the time about Israel and the war over there. And those are wars that don't benefit The United States at a pro American regime in Venezuela. Probably would be good for us because of the resources they have."

Speaker 0 makes a series of conspiracy-oriented claims about Venezuela, the global financial system, and precious metals. He asserts that the coup in Venezuela is tied to control over the country’s silver, gold, and oil reserves, and that the Federal Reserve exerts influence over other nations through financial systems. He references two books as explanatory aids: Secrets of the Federal Reserve by Eustace Mullins (spoken as “Eustace Mullen’s Secrets of the Federal Reserve”) and Behold the Pale Horse by Will Cooper, describing the latter as highlighting how “bread and circuses” distract people while more significant issues—such as Epstein files and pedophiles—are overlooked. The speaker links the Venezuelan developments to metal markets, noting that silver is hitting a record high near $80 per ounce and gold near $4,300 per ounce, suggesting a correlation between the upheaval and precious metals dynamics. He states that the country “has tons of silver,” implying that the takeover is connected to bearing and extracting mineral wealth. A central premise is that the stated aim of such interventions is to “free the people,” but the speaker questions this motive, asking whether liberation would not have been possible earlier. He argues that if the leadership in Venezuela had been, for example, communist for decades, liberation could have occurred long ago, implying that the actual trigger for intervention is tied to resource wealth rather than humanitarian concerns. The speaker further contends that the intervention occurred specifically because Venezuela “has the highest silver reserves, gold reserves and also oil reserves,” prompting readers to consider whether actions were driven by resource significance rather than benevolent intent. He concludes by asserting that the true timing—liberating people when gold and silver prices are at record highs—reflects the strategic value of mineral wealth in the intervention. The overall narrative ties political upheaval in Venezuela to financial influence, resource wealth, and a broader pattern of outside powers advancing a banking-oriented agenda, as interpreted through the lens of the referenced books and current metal price movements.

The speaker questions the common narrative that Trump is an idiot and suggests a counterintuitive plan: what if losing the war in Iran is the point, aimed at accelerating the collapse of the American empire and the global economy, in order to rebuild power for the United States? Key claims and sequence: - The media portrays Trump as destroying America, waging an unwinnable war in Iran, threatening to invade with ground troops, angering NATO by threatening Greenland, and clashing with multiple countries; JPMorgan warns the world will run out of oil by mid-April; the global economy is described as on the brink of collapse; Trump is labeled as the worst president or a buffoon—yet this could be intentional. - The hypothetical strategy: what if Trump wants to lose the war in Iran to cause a broader decline of the American empire and the global economy, thereby gaining a strategic genius status. - Oil dependence highlights: currently, the world relies heavily on Middle East oil for major regions (20% of the world, 75% for Japan, 60% for Europe, etc.). Oil is not scarce worldwide; major reserves exist in Venezuela, Canada, and the United States. - Claim that Trump “took over Venezuela in January” and has threatened to take over Canada, implying moves toward controlling North American resources. - If Iran conflict closes the Strait of Hormuz, Middle East oil would be cut off, while North American production continues; thus Europe, China, Japan, and South Korea would become dependent on American oil and fertilizer (nitrogen for food) from the U.S./North American region. - Consequence: nations that hold U.S. debt—Japan, China, Taiwan, South Korea, Europe (UK, France, Belgium, Luxembourg)—need Middle East oil and now need American energy and resources; they cannot abandon the dollar due to this energy dependence. - The claim that Trump has transformed America’s debt into a potential weapon by forcing global dependence on North American energy, rather than allowing a debt-driven collapse. - Parallel to Russia: Putin’s Ukraine strategy is cited as proof that a war footing can restructure an economy around defense production (drones, munitions, military manufacturing); Russia moved from importing Iranian drones to making them domestically and exporting to Iran. - The proposed “Greater North America” concept: Greenland for rare earth minerals, Canada for oil and resources, Venezuela for oil reserves, Mexico for manufacturing, Panama Canal for trade control. The idea is to build a self-sufficient North American fortress while the rest of the world burns. - Outcome framing: Trump may appear reckless, but if the objective is to end the American empire’s current form and rebuild it for Americans by making the world dependent on U.S. resources, he could be remembered as a transformative, potentially greatest American president in history. - Closing: the “new world order” is deemed dead, replaced by a “Trump world order,” with a prompt to follow for more content.

Speaker 0 asserts that Cuba is on the brink of collapse, stating that Cuba is ready to fall and speculating on how they will hold up. The claim is that Cuba now has no income, with the source of its previous income being Venezuelan oil. According to the speaker, Cuba is not receiving any of that Venezuelan oil income now. The speaker emphasizes that Cuba is literally ready to fall. In this context, the speaker notes that there are many great Cuban Americans who will be very happy about this development. The statement is associated with Marco Rubio.

Dr. Paul and the other speaker discuss a sequence of public claims and shifts regarding Venezuela, Nicolas Maduro, and the Cartel de los Soles. They begin by recalling a $50,000,000 bounty on President Nicolas Maduro of Venezuela, arguing that Maduro is the head of a narco-terrorist drug cartel called Cartel de los Soles. They note that Secretary of State-designate Marco Rubio stated in November that the State Department intends to designate Cartel de los Soles as a foreign terrorist organization headed by the illegitimate Nicolas Maduro, asserting that the group has corrupted Venezuela’s institutions and is responsible for terrorist violence conducted with other designated foreign terrorist organizations, as well as for trafficking drugs into the U.S. and Europe. The speakers claim that for weeks Americans were exposed to a narrative portraying foreign narco-terrorist cartels running the country and that this narrative influenced public opinion, making some believe it might be acceptable to take drastic actions, including attacking boats, on the premise that “they’re all terrorists.” They then point to a development that “dropped yesterday,” presenting a clip that, once Maduro was “in their grasp,” the Justice Department allegedly dropped the claim that Venezuela’s Cartel de los Soles is an actual group. They assert that after months of hype intended to drum up support for invading Venezuela, the claim was retracted, with the implication that the government figures had misrepresented the situation. The speakers compare this sequence to the Iraq WMD narrative, asserting that officials “swore up and down for years” about WMDs, and when the invasion occurred they were shown joking about the existence of WMDs. They recall President George W. Bush joking about WMDs at a White House Correspondents’ Dinner, looking under the couch and the coffee table, asking “Where’s those WMDs?” They conclude by likening the Cartel de los Soles to the WMDs of their operation, arguing that the construct is already completely falling apart. The overarching claim is that the Cartel de los Soles was used as a justification for aggressive action, and that the narrative surrounding the cartel has been exposed as unreliable or false.

Speaker 0 outlines a discussion on global threats and resources. The audience quickly names Russia as the major threat, with China and North Korea also suggested; Venezuela is mentioned by one participant as well. The speaker then pivots to a question about natural resources: which place has the largest oil deposit on the planet, more than Saudi Arabia or Iran? The answer highlighted is Venezuela, noted as arguably the single greatest source of oil and minerals on the planet. The focus shifts to Venezuela’s leadership: President Nicholas Reyes, who rose to power on nationalist pride and, in six years, has crippled the national economy by half and raised the poverty rate by almost 400%. Reyes is up for reelection. His opponent is Gloria Bonaldi, described as a history professor turned activist, running on a social justice platform. The speaker adds a claim about predictions for Venezuela’s future, stating that as of today the chances of total economic collapse are 87%. Media framing is contrasted: on the news, Venezuela would be called a crisis, but on the world stage it would be called a failed state. The speaker notes other examples of failed states in recent history—Yemen, Iraq, and Syria. A further point is made that Venezuela is the only one of these places within a thirty-minute range from the US of “next gen nuclear missiles.” The claim continues that you will not hear about any of this on the news because the biggest players on the world stage do not want you to; unstable governments are seen, in their view, as opportunities. The closing assertion is that Russia and China can never be the most major threat until countries like Venezuela leave the door open to the United States’ backyard.

Suppose the United States will seize Venezuelan oil and quickly ramp up its output to world markets. They will fully load their refineries, and put their oil on the world market. Or something else will happen.

Mario asked Pepe Escobar for his take on the state of affairs, focusing on Venezuela and Iran, in the wake of dramatic developments including the alleged attack on Maduro-era Venezuela and broader upheavals in Iran, Russia, and beyond. Pepe frames Venezuela as a desperate move connected to the demise of the petrodollar, with multiple overlapping headlines and actors maneuvering for advantage in a test of national security and regional influence. He says the United States has claimed Venezuela as “my backyard,” and questions whether Washington is prepared to back a fifth-column government in Venezuela or to overhaul the Venezuelan oil industry to serve American interests. He argues that reconstituting Venezuela’s energy sector to produce about 3 million barrels per day would require five years and roughly $183 billion in investment, and notes that American CEOs are not willing to spend that much without total investment guarantees. He suggests the White House lacked a coherent, forward-looking strategy for reorganizing Venezuela’s oil industry and that the ego of neoconservatism drove actions that lacked feasibility. On the leadership dynamics, Pepe notes that Delcy Rodríguez, a seasoned Chavista negotiator and daughter of a revolutionary killed by the CIA, leads a government that prioritizes Venezuela’s interests over U.S. interests. He mentions that Maduro’s security head, previously said to be linked to the operation, was demoted rather than arrested, indicating an intelligence and political calculus aimed at explaining the leadership in a way domestic audiences can accept. He emphasizes that the regime remains, with Padrino López and other core figures still in place, and that the “regime change” dream from Trump’s team did not materialize as hoped. He suggests the regime change narrative was limited to a “mini Netflix special with full of special effects.” Pepe shifts to the broader regional and global context, noting that Venezuela’s crisis intersects with Brazil’s Lula, BRICS dynamics, and US foreign policy. He asserts that Delcy Rodríguez’s negotiating skills could help Venezuela if the sanctions were lifted, and stresses the importance of popular support for her—reportedly over 90% of Venezuelans backing her. He argues that Latin American sentiment strongly rejects external interference, pointing to regional uproar over U.S. actions in Venezuela. He also discusses how Brazil’s stance within BRICS and Lula’s position affect Venezuela’s prospects for integration into BRICS, including Lula’s veto in BRICS discussions that blocked Venezuela from becoming a BRICS member. Turning to the broader geopolitics, Pepe argues that the strategic landscape is dominated by three major players: Iran, Russia, and China. He explains that, unlike the United States, Russia and China respond to actions with measured, long-term strategies and emphasize concrete acts over rhetoric. He points to NATO attacks on Russia’s nuclear triad site and the Novgorod residence as pivotal events, arguing that Russia’s response is framed by a long-term calculus rather than immediate negotiations. He notes that China seeks to move global trade toward the yuan rather than the dollar, framing this as a de facto removal of dollar dominance rather than a formal currency replacement. He emphasizes that Iran is maneuvering under severe sanctions, with protests driven largely by economic grievances but potentially hijacked by foreign actors as seen in color-revolution playbooks, and that Iran’s leadership stresses long-term resilience and partnerships with Russia and China. Pepe cautions that the Iran and Venezuela situations show a broader pattern: sanctions and mismanagement combine to create fragility, while external actors press their own strategic agendas. He warns that the instability in Iran and the ongoing Russia-Ukraine war create a dangerous, volatile environment, with the potential for a prolonged European and global conflict if escalation continues. He concludes with a bleak assessment for the near term, suggesting that the war in Ukraine could extend for years and that Europe faces mounting economic strain as it bears the costs of ongoing conflict. In sum, Pepe Escobar portrays Venezuela as a case where sanctions, strategic miscalculations, and competing powers intersect, while Iran, Russia, and China pursue longer-term, multilayered strategies that complicate Western-led attempts at regime change or coercive diplomacy.

- The discussion opens with the possibility of a coup in Venezuela, with Speaker 0 suggesting the first step would be to “take out Maduro.” Speaker 1 notes reports that Maduro sought amnesty from the US to step down, which Trump allegedly refused. - A recurring theme is the idea of watching naval movements to gauge US willingness to attack a country. Speaker 2 emphasizes that an aircraft carrier battle group signals seriousness, citing the USS Gerald R. Ford and 11 associated ships as the indicator that the US is “serious.” He also questions any upside for the US in regime change in Venezuela, noting the US has avoided buying or refining Venezuelan oil and arguing that the policy lacks a clear benefit. - On drugs, Speaker 2 asserts that the drugs in Venezuela are not Venezuelan but come from Colombia and Ecuador, transiting Venezuela to West Africa and then to Europe, with the claim that Europe is the primary market and the US a smaller one. He argues this reflects broader flaws in US foreign policy. - The speakers discuss the potential consequences if Maduro steps down, predicting chaos, and reflect on the broader narrative shift from Iran, Russia, and Ukraine to Venezuela. They discuss whether the military and regional powers would support intervention. Speaker 2 argues that regional powers (Colombia, Brazil, Mexico) are opposed to American intervention, complicating any possible regime-change effort. - The issue of amnesty is revisited. Speaker 2 speculates Trump might want a “scalp” as a symbol of seriousness on drugs, drawing a parallel to Manuel Noriega’s capture, while noting that a post-overthrow stability plan is often missing in US operations. - The conversation touches on China’s role. Speaker 2 suggests China’s refinery investments in the Caribbean represent a strategic shift away from US-dominated refining, arguing that this creates incentives for China and reduces the US’s influence, with Maduro’s regime survival as a central concern. - On whether Maduro would offer US full access to Venezuelan oil, Speaker 2 says he can’t see it changing the strategic calculus, and argues China’s expanding influence makes regime change less sensible for the US. - They discuss the plausibility of using naval movements as a bluff to force Maduro to depart, noting such tactics are used in the South China Sea. However, Speaker 2 cautions that removing Maduro would create a power vacuum, and the military’s stance remains uncertain since the region’s powers oppose intervention. - Regarding the opposition, Speaker 2 downplays Maria Machado’s prospects, suggesting she lacks military backing and that a senior military officer might be the likely successor if Maduro leaves. The Juan Guaido episode is cited to illustrate the fragility and divisiveness of Venezuelan opposition movements. - The feasibility of decapitation-style strikes against Maduro is debated. Speaker 2 stresses Maduro is the internationally recognized president and emphasizes that any coup would require ground forces and a day-two plan, which historically has been lacking in US interventions. - They compare potential outcomes to Libya’s post-overthrow chaos and caution that US-imposed peace rarely lasts. The risk of a renewed crisis in Venezuela, including possible Hezbollah or Iranian connections, is acknowledged as a troubling possibility. - The discussion ends with a somber note that even seasoned policymakers may overestimate the success of regime change, and a reminder of historical lessons about coup outcomes and long-term stability.

Speaker 0 proposed a two-part plan regarding oil and the Strait of Hormuz. First, he suggested buying oil from the United States of America, stating that “we have plenty. We have so much.” Second, he urged building up “delayed courage,” saying it should have been done before and should have been done with us as we asked. He instructed: “Go to the straight and just take it. Protect it. Use it for yourselves.” Regarding Iran, Speaker 0 asserted that Iran has been “essentially decimated,” and that “the hard part is done, so it should be easy.” He claimed that when this conflict ends, “the strait will open up naturally. It’ll just open up naturally.” He concluded that Iran’s neighbors “are gonna wanna be able to sell oil because that's all they have to try and rebuild.”

Speaker 0 and Speaker 1 discuss Venezuela policy and leadership. Speaker 0 asks if "secretary Hagsef and Rubio are going to be running Venezuela" and whether US military troops will be sent in. Speaker 1 responds that they are "working with the people of Venezuela to make sure that we have Venezuela" and questions who would take over if the US left, noting there is "a vice president who's been appointed by Maduro" who "was sworn as president just a little while ago." She had a long conversation with Marco and said, "we'll do whatever you need," though she "really doesn't have a choice." Speaker 1 asserts they will "have this done right" and "not gonna just do this with Maduro then leave like everybody else" or let it "go to hell." If the US left, it would have "zero chance of ever coming back." They will "run it properly," with "the greatest oil companies in the world" investing "billions and billions of dollars" and using that money "in Venezuela." The biggest beneficiary, per Speaker 1, will be "the people of Venice."

The discussion opens with a note that countries negotiating with Venezuela for illegal oil are already starting to suffer, prompting questions about the future of Venezuela's oil industry. Speaker 1 responds that they will be very strongly involved in it, stating, “We have the greatest oil companies in the world, the biggest, the greatest, and we're going to be very much involved in it.” He emphasizes that they “can't do something like this,” and that they were prepared, being “out there with an armada like nobody's ever seen before.” He adds that they were prepared for a second wave, and that “this was so lethal” and “so powerful that we didn't have to,” but they were ready. He says they were prepared for a second wave going in, implying readiness for further action.

Military is so amazing. I rebuilt the military my first term. I didn't know I'd use it so much because then you also have Venezuela, which they say was one of the most lethal, incredible attacks in the history of military period, not just our military. It was a strong country, strong military. If you've ever been to Venezuela, they have soldiers all over everybody has a soldiers uniform on. They have tough soldiers, but, it was all done in forty five minutes. The entire war was won in forty five minutes. We set a record. That's like a fighter gets knocked out in the first three seconds. And now we're working with Venezuela, and we're we've taken in many times the cost of the attack, many, many times. And we're working with them. I it's like a joint venture, and we have tremendous amounts of oil. And we could do that with Iran very easily. We could just take their oil, but, know, I'm not sure that the people in our country have the patience to do that, which is unfortunate. You know, they wanna see it end. If we stayed there, I'd, you know, I'd prefer just to take the oil. We could do it so easily. I would prefer that. But people in the country sort of say, just win. You're winning so big. Just win. Come home. And I'm okay with that too because we have a lot of oil between Venezuela and our oil.

Mario: Let's start with Venezuela. Do you think this is a strategy by Trump? Larry: I saw something similar back in 1988. The CIA was involved with trying to provoke Manuel Noriega into taking some action, so we could say we had to respond to set the stage for a military invasion, which I believe that in 2018, Donald Trump signed a finding authorizing a covert CIA action to get rid of Maduro. That attempt failed. And now the objective is to get control of the oil. That's the number one priority, with an eye toward the risk of a renewed Iran conflict and the prospect of shutdown of the Persian Gulf, and the need to have an alternative supplier. Ukraine defeating Russia was the plan, and Russia’s military is now around 1,500,000. Mario: What’s your initial reaction to Venezuela? I talked to John Kuriaki who said to read naval movements to gauge what the military plans. The buildup on the coast of Venezuela is significant. They’ve got 14, 12 warships, including the Gerald Ford. Do you think they are bluffing or this is a Trump strategy? Larry: It could be a bluff. I saw something similar in 1988. I was in the Central America branch, and the CIA’s analytical thrust was to provoke Noriega into taking action to justify a response and invasion. That happened in 1988. But that time there were US bases in Panama; Quarry Heights was full. Southern Command was there. Now Southern Command has moved to Miami, just near Southcom. Another issue: within the military, the concept of supported and supporting commands means the special operations command (SOCOM) would normally be the supporting commander, but here Southern Command would be subordinate to SOCOM, which is problematic because SOCOM cannot fight a conventional war. Delta Force, SEAL Team Six, and others are light infantry for raids, not mass warfare. So launching shells or sending ground forces won’t solve Venezuela; terrain is rugged and favors ambushes. If US troops ashore, body bags would likely exceed those from Iraq and Afghanistan. Venezuelans will fight, and insurgents from Brazil and Colombia could join. Decapitation strikes against Maduro could provoke an insurgency that the US would struggle to pacify. Mario: Could we see a decapitation strike like Israel against Hezbollah and Iran? Larry: Decapitating Maduro would still leave loyalists and other actors with weapons; an insurgency could erupt, and the US would be unable to pacify it. The real objective here is unclear. The State Department’s INL/INSCR programs have long documented Venezuela as a transit point for drugs; Trump claimed fentanyl is the issue, but most cocaine also goes to Europe. The 2018 Trump era mentioned the Trendy Aragua as a pretext to justify covert actions; I believe Trump signed a finding authorizing a CIA operation to remove Maduro, leading to Guaidó, but that failed. The broader agenda appears to be regaining oil influence and countering Russia, China, and Iran’s influence in Venezuela. Mario: Elaborate the agenda and strategy behind these strikes on boats out of Venezuela and Trump’s public acknowledgement of a CIA covert operation. What’s the strategy and intention? Larry: The objective is to restore oil control in Venezuela and reduce adversary influence. Maduro once aligned with the CIA, and Chavez/Maduro have maintained cordial relations with Moscow and Beijing. The US aims to curtail BRICS and reduce Venezuelan ties to Russia, China, and Iran, potentially moving Venezuela away from the dollar-based system. The theory that this is a message to Putin circulates, but if that were the aim, it’s a poor strategy given the broader geopolitical dynamics in Syria, Iran, and the Palestinian-Israeli arena. The US previously overpromised in the Red Sea and failed to secure freedom of navigation, signaling limited military capacity for large-scale campaigns. The objective of any Venezuela action must be concrete, otherwise it risks entanglement in an insurgency. Mario: Turning to general foreign policy under Trump. What about the national security strategy? Europe’s criticisms, and Trump’s approach to Ukraine—Witkoff and Kushner meeting Putin? Larry: The 2025 national security strategy signals change, but these documents are not blueprints; they’re guidelines. Europe is being asked to step up, while the US distances itself, arguing Europe’s resources and industrial capacity have diminished while Russia and China shift. Europe’s censorship and defense spending are under scrutiny. The US–UK intelligence relationship still lingers, but overall the West’s ability to project force is questioned. Russia and China’s relationship is deep and mutually reinforcing; the Rand Corporation’s earlier ideas that Ukraine would defeat Russia to force Moscow to join the West have not materialized. Ukraine’s fight has forced Russia to mobilize and shift front lines; casualty counts are contested, but Russia’s front has expanded with a larger force and higher attrition. Mario: What about Ukraine negotiations and Putin’s terms? Larry: Putin’s terms (as stated on 06/14/2024) are: Crimea, Zaporizhzhia, Kherson, Donetsk, and Luhansk permanently part of Russia; Ukraine must withdraw forces from those territories before negotiations begin. An election must be held in Ukraine with a legitimately elected president, potentially replacing Zelenskyy, and Russia would then talk to Ukraine. Russia’s stance treats these territories as non-negotiable; freezing lines is not acceptable to Russia. If negotiations fail, Russia is likely to maintain control over large parts of Donbas and southern Ukraine, potentially extending into Kharkiv and Odessa. Western military support is insufficient in scale to match Russia’s production; Russia’s oil revenue remains a significant portion of GDP, and the global south is pivoting toward BRICS, with Modi’s meeting signaling stronger ties with Russia and China. The strategic trend is a shift away from Western dominance toward a multipolar order. Mario: Larry, appreciate your time. Larry: Pleasure as always, Mario.

- "We're looking at the oil assets. That's the single most, important income stream to the government of Venezuela." - "We want everybody to know we're we're looking at all this very seriously. We don't want any American businesses or investors caught by surprise." - "They can see what president Trump did yesterday. We're following through on it." - "So if you think of a company like Sitco, is owned by Pedevesa, which is the state run oil company there in Venezuela, we have a lot of those Cisco Sitco assets right here in The US." - "We're in conversation with major American companies now that are either in Venezuela or in the case of Sitco here in The United States." - "I think we're trying to get to the same end result here." - "Venezuela is one of the three countries I call the troika of tyranny."

Speaker 0 argues that despite claims that the United States kidnapped Maduro in Venezuela to seize oil resources, the true motive was to counter China. China, according to the speaker, has tools and weapons that could destabilize the U.S. dollar, which would impact civil markets. At the start of the year, China announced it would restrict exports of its silver, and since China dominates the silver market, this caused the price of silver to surge. The speaker asserts that if the United States embargoed China's oil, China could dump its U.S. Treasuries and cause financial havoc, potentially destroying both nations. A central metaphor is presented: a ladder over an abyss, with both China and the United States attempting to climb it together. The United States supposedly insists on remaining higher than China; if the U.S. goes too far and falls behind, the latter destabilizes and both fall into the abyss. Conversely, if China overtakes and climbs too far, they both fall. The speaker contends that the American financial industry currently lacks the capacity to self-correct, and a market collapse could pull the entire economy down. Another major problem cited is over-financialization. Regarding silver, the speaker asserts that China needs silver, but in the United States it is used for speculation, describing silver as “really just paper silver.” They claim that some companies, such as JPMorgan, are significantly overleveraged—“300 to one”—so every ounce of silver they hold is promised 300 on paper. The speaker then shifts to a geopolitical forecast: “This war will be settled in Odessa.” NATO, they claim, will commit to defending Odessa; Russia will encircle and blockade, and NATO will be unable to hold on. Europeans would be forced to be conscripted to fight in Odessa, would refuse, and civil war would ensue across Europe. The timeframe is given as five to ten years, with a note that it would be a slow death for Europe, and that some aspects are expected to unfold “this year.”

The speaker lays out a prepared, all-options approach to confrontation, emphasizing that both an easier and a harder path are available and acceptable. They assert that the United States will "give them full opportunity to do it the easy way," and when that fails, will proceed with the "hard way," underscoring a willingness to escalate if necessary. The stance is framed as a choice between leveraging an easier, targeted strategy or adopting stronger measures if diplomacy or limited action does not achieve the objectives. A central motive centers on perceived threats to the United States, specifically naming chemical weapons as a threat. The speaker identifies chemical weapons as a threat to the United States and also flags fentanyl as posing a chemical weapons threat, extending the danger from state actors to non-state crises and illicit trafficking. This framing links conventional security concerns with the broader chemical threat landscape. The discussion explicitly mentions Iraq and Venezuela as focal points for action, signaling the intention to address activities or regimes in those regions. The speaker highlights the presence of Al Qaeda terrorists inside Iraq and characterizes them as part of “Al Qaeda of our hemisphere,” suggesting a regional dimension to the terrorist threat that could be leveraged to justify intervention or action. There is a stated belief that removing Saddam Hussein could transform the region. The speaker asserts that getting rid of Saddam "could really begin to transform the region" and describes there as "an opportunity to transform the entire region." This frames regime change in a transformative, strategic light, presenting it as a catalyst for broader democratic and freedom-oriented change. The rhetoric emphasizes the promotion of freedom and democracy as a guiding objective, describing democracy and freedom as concepts that "can serve as a beacon of hope." The final fragment, "Shark cannot," appears as an incomplete or garbled closing thought, attached to a broader theme of capability or constraint, leaving an abstract or unresolved note at the end.

Mario: Let's start with Venezuela. Do you think this is a strategy by Trump? Larry: I saw something similar back in 1988. The CIA was involved with trying to provoke Manuel Noriega into taking some sort of action. They could say, oh, well, we gotta go respond to this to set the stage for our military invasion, which I believe that in 2018, Donald Trump signed a finding authorizing a covert action by the CIA to get rid of Maduro. That attempt failed. And now the objective, get control of the oil. That's the number one priority. And I think it's being done with an eye looking forward, recognizing the potential risk. If conflict is renewed with Iran, prospect of the shutdown of Persian Gulf— Mario: Ukraine defeated Russia. Larry: Yeah. That was the plan. Russia's military is now around 1,500,000. Mario: Let’s talk Venezuela. What’s your initial reaction? When John Kuriaki suggested the best indicator is naval movements, and the buildup off Venezuela is significant. I’ve heard they have 14, twelve warships, including the Gerald Ford. Do you think they are bluffing? Is this Trump strategy? Larry: It could be a bluff. I saw something similar in 1988. I was in the CIA’s Central America branch. They tried to provoke Noriega into action to justify invasion, which happened in December 1988. What’s different now is the base infrastructure. In Panama, Quarry Heights was full; Southern Command was there. Southern Command has moved to Miami. The weaponization of the idea of a “supported vs. supporting” commander is reversed here: Southern Command would be subordinate to Special Operations Command. SOCOM cannot fight a conventional war; they’re light infantry, raids, hostage rescue. So the question is: what will the ships actually do? Shells into Venezuela won’t defeat Venezuela. Ground forces would require mass, and Venezuela is three times the size of Vietnam with rugged terrain that favors ambushes. If US troops ashore, you’d stack body bags far beyond Iraq and Afghanistan. Mario: Do Venezuelans have the will to fight Maduro? Larry: Yes. It will rally insurgents from Brazil and Colombia. If we decapitate Maduro, there are loyalists with weapons; an insurgency could follow, and the US would be hard-pressed to pacify it. The State Department’s INL/INSCR reports on narcotics note Venezuela as a transit point for marijuana and some cocaine, with fentanyl less central than claimed by Trump. The 2018 emphasis on Trendy Aragua looked CIA-driven. Trump reportedly signed a covert action finding in 2018 to remove Maduro, leading to the Guaidó fiasco; that covert action included some public diplomacy via USAID. The objective now, as you asked, is oil control and curtailing Russia, China, and Iran’s influence, with an eye toward BRICS. Mario: Could there be a decapitation strike on Maduro, and would someone like Maria take over? Larry: A decapitation strike could spark insurgency; the US would not be able to pacify it. The broader agenda seems to include a strategy to seize oil and reduce regional influence by Russia and China. Venezuela’s role as a transit point and possible BRICS alignment complicates any straightforward regime-change scenario. Mario: Moving to general foreign policy under Trump. The national security strategy (NSS) for 2025 signals a shift, but you question how binding NSS papers are. What did you make of it, and how does it relate to Ukraine? You’ve noted Trump isn’t serious about peace in Ukraine on some occasions. Larry: The NSS is a set of guidelines, not a blueprint. Europe is being asked to step up, the US distancing itself from Europe, and the strategic relationship with Europe is damaged by the perception of long-term reliability and sanctions. The document highlights China as an economic rival rather than an enemy; it criticizes Europe’s defense spending and censorship, and it frames Russia as less of a direct threat than before, though the reality is nuanced. The US-EU relationship is strained, and the US wants Europe to shoulder more of the burden in Ukraine while maintaining strategic pressure. Mario: What about Ukraine? Zelensky’s negotiation posture, security guarantees, and the Moscow terms? Larry: Putin spoke on 06/14/2024 with five Russian demands: Crimea, Zaporizhzhia, Kherson, Donetsk, and Luhansk are permanently part of Russia; Ukraine must withdraw its forces from those republics; there must be an election in Ukraine with a legitimately elected president (the Russians argue Zelensky is illegitimate for not holding elections); they suggest a successor to Zelensky and elections within 90 days. Freezing lines in Donbas is not accepted by Russia; the Russians claim further territory may be annexed with referenda. If peace talks fail, Russia is likely to push to occupy Kharkiv, Sumy, Mykolaiv, and Odessa, potentially Kyiv. Western support is insufficient to alter that trajectory, given Russia’s large artillery and drone production. The US and Europe cannot match Russia’s drone and shell output; even if they supply Tomahawks, escalation risks, including nuclear considerations, grow. Russia’s economy and war capacity remain robust, and the BRICS poles are strengthening as Western leverage wanes. Mario: What about sanctions strategy and Russia’s oil revenues? Larry: Oil remains a significant but not decisive portion of Russia’s GDP. The West’s sanctions are not enough to force collapse; Russia has endured the 1990s and remains resilient. BRICS cooperation and the shift to the Global South are changing the global order, with Russia and China deepening ties and reducing Western influence. The war in Ukraine has not produced a decisive Western victory, and the global south is moving away from Western-led sanctions, reshaping geopolitical alignments. Mario, it’s been a pleasure.

Max Blumenthal explains that the January 3 operation in Caracas appeared to be a terrorist assault on Caracas, involving the kidnapping of Nicolas Maduro and his wife Celia Flores. He notes Maduro’s presidential guard was massacred, 32 Cuban officers were killed, and many civilians died, with no US casualties reported. He suggests the operation reflected a long-prepared plan by the US, with initials of a “hay a halo” style high-altitude entry into Miraflores Palace. He cites Venezuelan official Diosdado Cabello stating that Flores demanded to accompany Maduro and may have saved his life, and he questions whether there was a betrayal or widespread military collapse on the Venezuelan side. He interviewed former Venezuelan foreign minister Jorge Arreaza, who denied insider deals or betrayals and supported Maduro’s view, though Blumenthal notes there is backroom dealmaking with the US occurring under Maduro. Ariasso is said to have reported that communication systems were taken out, bases bombed, and key communication towers destroyed, with drones still in Venezuelan airspace; thus, Blumenthal questions whether an order not to scramble Sukhoi jets prevented an escalation. He describes the episode as a “staggering failure of intelligence, counterintelligence, military,” while observing the resilience of the Chavista movement: Delsy Rodriguez as acting president committed to sovereignty, and officials like Cabello and Vladimir Padrino López remaining in place, with collectivos in the streets. He argues Trump must contend with the Chavista movement because they control institutions. He notes Venezuela announced the release of “political prisoners,” arguing many were linked to US-backed opposition efforts, but he cannot provide names. Blumenthal cites Rick Grinnell, Trump’s envoy to Venezuela, who reportedly negotiated directly with Maduro for a deal involving Chevron’s drilling license in exchange for deported Venezuelan migrants; Grinnell implied the opposition, led by Maria Corina Machado, resisted allowing Maduro or Venezuela to strike a deal and instead aimed to delegitimize Maduro. He accuses Rubio of aiding移 deportations of Venezuelan migrants to Nayib Bukele’s El Salvador, where detainees were publicly humiliated and tortured; he claims these actions were designed to prevent deals that would allow Maduro to gain revenue or preserve ties. He argues Maduro was open to a deal, but not one controlled by Trump. Blumenthal asserts Trump’s larger aim is regime change to control Venezuela’s oil and cut ties with Russia and China, pressing Maduro to run Venezuela under US orders, potentially to funnel oil proceeds offshore to avoid US accountability. He claims Trump seeks a 30–50 million barrel oil deal, with revenue used to buy American products, but offshore holdings would enable plunder by Trump Incorporated, and the operation signals a broader Monroe Doctrine-esque strategy. He argues this has implications for multipolar states and regional stability, noting Russia and China’s positions, including Xi’s visit to Miraflores before Maduro’s kidnapping and possible retaliation against Venezuela’s Belt and Road interests. In discussing legality, Blumenthal says kidnapping a head of state and trying him in New York would violate international law; under ICJ precedent, a national court cannot try a head of state without an ICC indictment and transfer to The Hague. He contends the Maduro indictment’s narcoterrorism claim is a fraud; he traces its origins to CIA-linked drug networks from the Reagan era, including “cartel of the Suns.” He discusses Hugo Carvajal (El Pollo) and his cooperation with the US, including a secret plea deal and testimony alleging Maduro’s regime involvement, including a claim that Venezuela’s Smartmatic allegations could be used to convict Maduro. He notes a DOJ superseding indictment calling the cartel a “loose network” rather than a formal cartel, and mentions a DC-9 flight (Cocaine One) allegedly connected to CIA-backed operations, potentially exposing CIA involvement, which Judge Hellerstein did not allow in court. Blumenthal concludes by calling the operation a mafia-like show—“gangsterism”—and suggests the Maduro case could challenge international law; he references prior interviews where he argued the “Cartel de los Soles” was not a real organization, a point later echoed by Washington Post and France 24. He closes acknowledging time constraints.

Pepe and Mario discuss a broad set of geopolitical developments, focusing on Venezuela, Iran, and broader U.S.-led actions, with insights on Russia, China, and other regional players. - Venezuela developments and U.S. involvement - Venezuela is described as a “desperate move related to the demise of the petrodollar,” with multiple overlapping headlines about backers maneuvering for profit and power in Latin America, and about the U.S. declaring “this is my backyard.” Delcy Rodríguez, the daughter of a slain revolutionary killed by the CIA, leads a new government, described as old-school Chavista with strong negotiation skills, who prioritizes Venezuela’s interests over U.S. interests. - The operation is criticized as having no clear strategy or forward planning for reorganizing the Venezuelan oil industry to serve U.S. interests. Estimates from Chinese experts suggest it would take five years to recondition Venezuela’s energy ecosystem for American needs and sixteen years to reach around 3 million barrels per day, requiring approximately $183 billion in investment—investment that U.S. CEOs are reportedly unwilling to provide without total guarantees. - There is debate about the extent of U.S. influence within Maduro’s circle. Some Venezuelan sources note that the head of security for the president, previously aligned with the regime, was demoted (not arrested), and there is discussion of possible U.S. ties with individuals around Maduro’s inner circle, though the regime remains headed by Maduro with key loyalists like the defense minister (Padrino) and the interior minister (Cabello) still in place. - The narrative around regime change is viewed as a two-edged story: the U.S. sought to replace Maduro with a pliant leadership, yet the regime remains and regional power structures (including BRICS dynamics) persist. Delcy Rodríguez is portrayed as capable of negotiating with the U.S., including conversations with Marco Rubio before the coup and ongoing discussions with U.S. actors, while maintaining Venezuela’s sovereignty and memory of the revolution. - The broader regional reaction to U.S. actions in Venezuela has included criticism from neighboring countries like Colombia and Mexico, with a sense in Latin America that the U.S. should not intrude in sovereign affairs. Brazil (a major BRICS member) is highlighted as a key actor whose stance can influence Venezuela’s BRICS prospects; Lula’s position is described as cautious, with Brazil’s foreign ministry reportedly vetoing Venezuela’s BRICS membership despite Lula’s personal views. - The sanctions regime is cited as a principal reason for Venezuela’s economic stagnation, with the suggestion that lifting sanctions would be a prerequisite for meaningful economic recovery. Delcy Rodríguez is characterized as a skilled negotiator who could potentially improve Venezuela’s standing if sanctions are removed. - Public opinion in Venezuela is described as broadly supportive of the regime, with the U.S. action provoking anti-American sentiment across the hemisphere. The discussion notes that a large majority of Venezuelans (over 90%) reportedly view Delcy Rodríguez favorably, and that the perception of U.S. intervention as a violation of sovereignty influences regional attitudes. - Iran: protests, economy, and foreign influence - Iran is facing significant protests that are described as the most severe since 2022, driven largely by economic issues, inflation, and the cost of living under four decades of sanctions. Real inflation is suggested to be 35–40%, with currency and purchasing power severely eroded. - Foreign influence is discussed as a factor hijacking domestic protests in Iran, described as a “color revolution” playbook echoed by past experiences in Hong Kong and other theaters. Iranian authorities reportedly remain skeptical of Western actors, while acknowledging the regime’s vulnerability to sanctions and mismanagement. - Iranians emphasize the long-term, multi-faceted nature of their political system, including the Shiite theology underpinning governance, and the resilience of movements like Hezbollah and Yemeni factions. Iran’s leadership stresses long-term strategic ties with Russia and China, as well as BRICS engagement, with practical cooperation including repair of the Iranian electrical grid in the wake of Israeli attacks during the twelve-day war and port infrastructure developments linked to an international transportation corridor, including Indian and Chinese involvement. - The discussion notes that while sanctions have damaged Iran economically, Iranians maintain a strong domestic intellectual and grassroots culture, including debates in universities and cafes, and are not easily toppled. The regime’s ability to survive is framed in terms of internal legitimacy, external alliances (Russia, China), and the capacity to negotiate under external pressure. - Russia, China, and the U.S. strategic landscape - The conversation contrasts the apparent U.S. “bordello circus” with the more sophisticated military-diplomatic practices of Iran, Russia, and China. Russia emphasizes actions over rhetoric, citing NATO attacks on its nuclear triad and the Novgorod residence attack as evidence of deterrence concerns. China pursues long-term plans (five-year plans through 2035) and aims to elevate trade with a yuan-centric global south, seeking to reduce dollar reliance without emitting a formal de-dollarization policy. - The discussion frames U.S. policy as volatile and unpredictable (the Nixon “madman theory” analog), while Russia, China, and Iran respond with measured, long-term strategies. The potential for a prolonged Ukraine conflict is acknowledged if European leaders pursue extended confrontation, with economic strains anticipated across Europe. - In Venezuela, Iran, and broader geopolitics, the panel emphasizes the complexity of regime stability, the role of sanctions, BRICS dynamics, and the long game of global power shifts that may redefine alliances and economic arrangements over the coming years.

The discussion centers on the Venezuelan operation that resulted in the capture of Maduro and the broader implications for global power dynamics. Larry asserts that many aspects of Maduro’s kidnapping were “odd,” noting that Caracas possessed significant air defense systems, most of which were not activated, and that one security service leader was a full cooperator with the United States, facilitating U.S. entry and avoiding return fire. He describes the operation as not replacing the Maduro government but “hold off Maduro, get US control of the oil, and get China and Russia and Iran out.” The plan, he states, was not regime change; the regime remained in power, but Maduro was removed temporarily to pursue strategic objectives. In recounting the operation, Larry explains that Delta Force operators from Task Force 160 carried out the mission in full moonlight, which he says reduced the usual advantage of nighttime execution. He compares the Caracas action to a pre-planned, staged exercise at Otis Air Force Base decades earlier, suggesting the Caracas operation was similarly staged, with the United States not facing ground fire. He notes conflicting casualty reports—“32 Cubans were killed” versus “80 Venezuelans”—and emphasizes the cooperation with Venezuelan forces, with no replacement of the government. A key point concerns a potential stand-down order. Larry indicates that the anti-air defenses bought from Russia—S-300s and Buk missiles—were not disabled; rather, they were not activated due to a stand-down order. He proposes that an insider within Maduro’s security apparatus cooperated with the U.S., and he names the possibility of a particular senior commander but declines to identify him publicly. He also discusses a theory that interim president Delcy Rodríguez might have been involved in providing intelligence or cooperation, but he regards such claims as a diversion from the real participants. The discussion then turns to the political and strategic objectives behind capturing Maduro. Mario asks about why capture was pursued if regime change was not intended, and Larry responds that the plan was to “get US control of the oil” and to push out rivals like China, Russia, and Iran from influence in Venezuela. They discuss potential future actions if Rodríguez or other internal leaders do not cooperate, including the possibility of escalating through force or covert operations that could provoke U.S. casualties and thus justify greater U.S. troop involvement. They compare this to the Iraq 2003 invasion planning, noting a lack of long-term stabilization plans. The Monroe Doctrine is invoked and contrasted with a Dunno/“Dunrold” framing. Larry argues that the Monroe Doctrine was misinterpreted as a unilateral U.S. claim to the Western Hemisphere, calling current U.S. actions a blend of Polk and Teddy Roosevelt’s doctrine rather than a strict, modern application of Monroe. He asserts that Russia and China are building a new international order with India and Brazil, and that Trump’s rhetoric may accelerate multipolar alignment, particularly with BRICS members like Brazil. They discuss how U.S. actions could push countries toward cooperating with China and Russia, potentially eroding U.S. hegemony. Turning to Iran, the analysts discuss protests and foreign involvement. They contend that Iranian protests are largely manufactured or supported by Western intelligence, including Mossad and the CIA, highlighting sources like the NCIR/Mujahedin-e Khalq (MEK) as part of Western intelligence influence. They note that Iran has strengthened ties with Russia and China since September, reducing sanctions pressure and improving economic options. They contend that Iran’s leadership—Pozheskin’s regime—has shown signs of adapting to internal pressures, including firing an economic minister, while maintaining a posture of resilience against Western demands. They discuss the twelve-day war with Israel, arguing Iran recovered quickly and maintained a strong stance, with deep hypersonic capabilities and robust air defense. The speakers conclude by debating whether the U.S. could replicate Maduro’s capture in Iran or whether a regime change attempt there is feasible. They contend there are no existing U.S. networks in Iran comparable to those in Venezuela, making a similar operation unlikely. They reflect on U.S. leverage, the role of foreign backing for Iran, and the potential for Iran to leverage its growing ties with Russia and China to resist Western pressure. The conversation ends with mutual appreciation and a New Year closing note.