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Afshin Ratansi hosts Steve Keen, honorary professor at University College London and author of *The New Economics Manifesto*, discussing how the war context around Iran, Israel, and broader Western actions could lead to famine and economic collapse. Keen argues that modern agriculture depends heavily on chemical fertilizers derived from oil feedstock, specifically nitrogenous fertilizers and phosphate-based fertilizers produced via the Haber-Bosch process and related oil-based inputs. He claims about 30% of the world’s fertilizer passes through the Strait of Hormuz, and that disruption to petroleum-based fertilizer supply would sharply reduce the planet’s food carrying capacity—from about 8.5 billion people down to between 1 and 2 billion—leaving famine “scattered all over the planet.”
Keen connects this to military decisions, stating that leaders who authorize war lack knowledge of how production and resource flows work. He says intelligence at lower levels may not reach top decision-makers, leading to war actions without understanding reliance on fertilizer supply routes and the Strait’s vulnerability because it is only 21 miles wide. He also proposes that political leaders may be driven by blackmail and insider dirt, referencing Jeffrey Epstein and Mossad involvement. Keen contends that governments support the war even as the public appears opposed, suggesting political credibility concerns tied to potential exposure.
Ratansi asks about timing and commodity markets not reflecting physical reality, referencing warnings that India could face famine within two to three months. Keen rejects the idea that financial markets efficiently price impending events, arguing instead that finance professionals largely guess what other speculators will do and have limited awareness of physical production constraints. He cites claims from a Twitter discussion and examples such as not recognizing shortages of physical inputs needed for industrial processes beyond fuel, including sulfuric acid and helium.
Keen further compares the expected crisis to 2008, saying governments can create money but money creation does not create goods and services. He argues the 2008 crisis was driven by credit expansion and then contraction (private debt growth turning from plus to minus in demand), whereas the current situation involves potential crushing of output capacity due to reduced oil supplies and other physical inputs. He predicts a financial crisis arising because people cannot service debt if goods cannot be produced and cash flows dry up—rather than from an earlier credit boom turning sharply.
When asked which countries would survive, Keen says those with greater self-sufficiency and buffer stocks would fare better, contrasting globalization and comparative advantage with the risk of disrupted supply flows. He points to China having about 1.5 years of grain reserve, while he claims the UK relies on imports for at least 40% (possibly up to 70%) of food and is therefore described as unable to feed itself. He links price controls to preventing starvation of the poor and potential social breakdown.
In the interview’s second segment, Ratansi asks how Jeffrey Epstein’s “ghost” and Netanyahu are implicated. Keen portrays Netanyahu as “peak blame,” asserting Netanyahu talked Trump into the war and that Trump’s decisions may reflect blackmail and/or narcissistic grandiosity. Ratansi asks about Trump allegedly enriching himself through market trading around announcements. Keen says he does not know Trump directly buys and sells, but cites work by Ed Conway identifying large petroleum-market sales or purchases shortly before Trump announcements, implying insider knowledge about announcements that can move markets and enable personal profit.
The discussion includes nuclear deterrence and scenarios for war outcomes. Keen supports the relevance of mutually assured destruction, describing it as a restraint against invasion. He outlines five scenarios: the U.S. using nuclear weapons; Iran destroying the Gulf; Iran disabling Dimona and the Israeli nuclear program; Iran getting nuclear weapons; and the Samson directive, where Israel targets the rest of the world with nuclear weapons. He says the worst outcome is the Samson directive and argues he is hoping preparedness and intelligence enable Iran to neutralize Israel’s nuclear weapons. Keen says he does not think the U.S. will use nuclear weapons, attributing restraint to Trump’s aversion to public humiliation. He describes social media, blackouts, and information control as amplifying “the first victim of war,” truth, and says he cannot know whether Israel will follow the Samson directive.
Finally, Ratansi asks why Western Europe is doubling down against Russia amid food-famine risk and West Asia war. Keen says the behavior is hard to understand and argues that Europe lacks raw material inputs and should cooperate with Russia rather than escalate conflict. He frames the Ukrainian conflict as tied to NATO expansion and broken promises, and he argues economic inequality in Western European nations could fuel fascism, suggesting elites blame outsiders for domestic economic failures and that this pattern resembles the conditions that fostered Nazism.