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The speaker acknowledges that achieving a sustainable 2% inflation rate will take time. They mention that the labor market is improving, with a better balance between labor supply and demand. While Q3 GDP growth was strong, it is expected to slow down in the future. The transcript abruptly ends with a request to close the door.

Goldman Sachs chief economist Jan Hatzowitz downgraded the economy forecast for 2025, a departure from a prior positive outlook. Goldman’s baseline forecast is two and a half percent growth, well above consensus, with inflation on a continued path toward the 2% target and Federal Reserve rate cuts in 2025 seen as a tailwind for business growth and investment. "The biggest risk to our outlook is just how much of a tariff increase the Trump administration will impose." "But in our risk case of a 10% across the board tariff, we'll actually get a reacceleration in inflation to 3% plus at least for a period of time." "Patzowitz in his press release said, we now see the average US tariff rate rising by 10 percentage points this year, twice our previous forecast and about five times the increase seen during the first Trump administration." What was only considered a less likely risk case in December now appears to be playing out.

At the end of World War II Asia and Europe were devastated, and the United States emerged as the last man standing, profiting hugely from the war. They ended up, due to isolation, the strongest economy in the world with more than half the world’s gold and half the world’s GDP, with standing industries that could shift from making tanks to making cars and trucks. They did extraordinarily well for a few decades, but then, as described, they began to financialize, and it became more profitable to speculate in investments than to actually invest. In recent years, companies with money often pursue share buybacks rather than expanding research and development or industrial capacity. We are in a stage where the underlying basis for markets is questionable: what are markets for, are they accurate at price discovery, and do they predict productive investment and returns on capital? We are in a transition phase where we’re not sure anymore. There is a huge bubble, and corporations creating these bubbles, with banks that loan money relying on the state because they are too big to fail. Bailouts have totaled trillions since 2008, as the US Federal Reserve, the European Central Bank, the Bank of England, and the Bank of Japan pumped trillions of dollars, with help from Gulf Cooperation Council countries to bail out banks in Britain, the United States, and Europe. It’s fascinating because China, since the financial crisis, has also created about 17 to 18 trillion dollars. China has actually been leading in creation of money, while investing that money in building 50,000 kilometers of high-speed rail, a space program, massive industries, and the Belt and Road initiative—real investment and so on. The enormous difference between the two is notable, but how far can states—the United States, Britain, the EU, and Japan—borrow and pump money into the market to keep this bubble going? We don’t know. Bubbles are hard to gauge in terms of expansion and when they break, which is why they can be sustained so long; the bursting of a bubble is painful, and no policymaker wants responsibility. China is interesting and is the only case in history of a property bubble being deflated without collapsing the real economy, deflating its property bubble over five or six years while the economy continued to grow—not at 8% but at 5%—and continued to expand. That is worth studying because other countries let property bubbles run until they burst, causing wider harm and deflation. Japan, for example, has had thirty years of zero growth since it began quantitative easing three decades ago, a growth killer because it protected existing companies, banks, and properties and never really recovered. Europe has had zero growth for about fifteen years since 2007. The United States sustains growth largely by buying it from the rest of the world—acquiring profitable companies or getting them to list on NASDAQ and then earning rents from profitable companies wherever they are—while the US economy has been largely hollowed out. It’s an interesting time to watch monetary dynamics, because this doesn’t go on forever.

Checklist for summary approach: - Identify the central thesis: a perceived globalist Great Reset vs a populist, pro-sovereignty counter-movement. - Extract and preserve the most consequential claims: monetary policy shifts, depopulation narratives, 15-minute cities, and feudalism versus 1776-style liberty. - Name key actors, organizations, and examples cited: UN, World Economic Forum, Larry Fink, John Kerry, BlackRock, Texas / Ken Paxton, Elon Musk, Trump, Saudi Arabia, Netherlands, Sri Lanka. - Track the throughline: inflation/allocation of resources, energy policy changes, and legal/political pushback at state level. - Highlight unique or provocative assertions that drive the argument (e.g., “post-industrial carbon tax plan,” “neo-feudalistic capitalism,” “AI gods”). - Exclude repetition and off-topic digressions, maintaining precise claims without evaluation. - Present content as the speakers’ arguments and counterpoints, with a clear, cohesive narrative. - Keep the final summary within 401–502 words, English translation if needed, and preserve the stance and claims as presented. Summary: The speakers frame a global struggle centered on opposing visions for the world’s economic and political future. They begin by noting that a rising price of gold signals to them the cumulative destruction of the US dollar, linking monetary weakness to the broader agenda discussed. They argue that major institutions—Goldman Sachs, JP Morgan, the IMF, the World Bank, and other major players—have decided in recent years to address monetary debt worldwide through inflation, affecting corporations, governments, and individuals. They claim Trump recognizes this and supports inflation alongside expansion of goods, acknowledging that economists foresee some pain but overall benefits, whereas a “leftist UN, WEF, great reset” would yield stagflation: high inflation with persistent recession—a “perfect storm of hell on Earth.” The narrative then asserts that UN/globalists aim to create a post-industrial order and a worldwide system of restricted mobility and control: breaking borders, lowering living standards, forming small, compact city-states and agrarian rural states—akin to a Hunger Games scenario—where medicine and technology exist for elites, while the rest are governed under tight control. They describe June 2021 to June 2030 as the policy window for this plan, involving depopulation through slow starvation and resource restriction, with the ultimate objective of a new cashless society and social credit. In contrast, they present Trump as opposing this trajectory, boosting energy production domestically and collaborating with Saudi Arabia to increase global energy supply, reducing inflation and putting money in voters’ hands. They also highlight Trump’s economic measures—no tax on tips or overtime, trillions in commitments and investments—as part of uplifting the middle class and national morale. They assert the globalist project includes “carbon lockdowns” and the 15-minute city, aiming for totalitarian control, including demographic and cultural demoralization (drag queen story hours, kneeling during the national anthem), to unify policy across nations. They claim legal pushback is occurring: states pulling pension funds from BlackRock, AGs like Ken Paxton in Texas “racketeering” suits against BlackRock’s ESG agenda, and courts challenging the pressure to divest from fossil fuels. The speakers contrast two civilizations: 1984’s totalitarian world versus a 1776 revival of liberty, governance, and economic freedom. They argue modern liberalism has become anti-family, anti-speech, anti-private property, and that the West’s demoralization must be halted. They invoke Benjamin Franklin and Thomas Jefferson to emphasize that a republic requires informed, engaged citizens who understand practical skills and virtue. The call ends with a conviction that the West’s revival is achievable, urging audiences to stand up, plant a flag, and defend the hill they deem essential for liberty and prosperity.

To address inflation, we need to tackle massive deficit spending and government waste. If the economy grows faster than the money supply, meaning we stop government overspending and the output of useful goods and services exceeds the increase in money, we can eliminate inflation. High interest payments are due to the increasing national debt, with the government competing with private citizens to sell debt, driving up interest rates. Cutting back on the deficit leads to the elimination of inflation and lower interest rates. This would reduce mortgage, credit card, car, and student loan payments, making life more affordable and improving the overall standard of living for people.

The Japanese yen recently crashed past 150 to the dollar, a level the Bank of Japan was expected to defend, raising concerns of a potential global financial crisis. Japan's "zombie economy," supported by high public spending and zero interest rates, allows investors to earn significantly more in the US or Europe. This is causing capital flight from Japan, weakening the yen. The weaker yen has increased import prices, especially for energy and food, impacting Japanese consumers whose incomes have remained stagnant for 25 years. The Bank of Japan can't raise interest rates to strengthen the yen due to Japan's massive public debt, which is 267% of its GDP. Raising rates to US levels would make debt service unsustainable. Rising inflation may force the government and Bank of Japan to inject more money, potentially creating a cycle of further currency devaluation and rate increases. Japan's debt level could trigger a global debt crisis, dwarfing the crisis of 2008.

Japan is in stagflation, facing a weak economy, crashing yen, and rising prices. Unions secured significant pay hikes after years of stagnant wages, signaling inflation. Japan's massive debt raises concerns of a global financial crisis. Government spending may worsen stagflation. The situation mirrors the 1970s and 2008 crises, leading to potential economic turmoil. Governments worldwide are increasing spending, risking a return to the economic challenges of the past.

Alex Kraner and Glenn discuss the geopolitical and economic fallout from Iran’s weekend strikes and the broader shifts in global risk, energy, and power blocs. - Oil and energy impact: Iran’s strikes targeted energy infrastructure, including Ras Tanura in Saudi Arabia, and crude prices jumped about 10% with Friday’s close around $73.50 and current levels near $80 per barrel. Prices could push higher if Hormuz traffic is disrupted or closed, given that one in five barrels of crude exports pass through the Hormuz gates. The potential for further oil disruptions is acknowledged, with the possibility of triple-digit or higher prices depending on how the conflict evolves. - Market dynamics and energy dependence: The guest notes a hockey-stick pattern in uptrends across markets when driven by large asset holders waking up to energy exposure, referencing shadow banking as a driver of rapid moves. He points to vast assets under management (approximately $220 trillion) among pension funds, hedge funds, endowments, and insurers that could push energy markets higher if they reallocate toward oil futures and energy-related assets. He emphasizes that energy is essential for broad economic activity, and a curtailed oil economy would slow economies globally. - European vulnerabilities: Europe faces a fragile energy security position, already dealing with an energy crisis and decreased reliance on Russian hydrocarbons. Disruptions to LNG supplies from Qatar or other sources could further threaten Europe, complicating efforts by Ursula von der Leyen and Christine Lagarde to manage inflation and debt. The panel highlights potential increased debt concerns in Europe, with Lagarde signaling uncertainty and the possibility of higher interest rates, and warns of a possible future resembling Weimar-era debt dynamics or systemic stress in European bonds. - Global geopolitics and blocs: The discussion suggests a risk of the world fracturing into two blocs, with BRICS controlling more diverse energy supplies and the West potentially losing its energy dominance. The US pivot to Asia could be undone as the United States becomes more entangled in Middle East conflicts. The guests anticipate renewed US engagement with traditional alliances (France, Britain, Germany) and a possible retraction from attempts to pursue multipolar integration with Russia and China. The possibility of a broader two-block, cold-war-like order is raised, with energy as a central question. - Iran and US diplomacy optics: The negotiations reportedly had Iran willing to concede to American proposals when the leadership was assassinated, prompting questions about US policy and timing. The attack is described as damaging to public opinion and diplomacy, with potential impeachment momentum for Trump discussed in light of his handling of the Iran situation. The geopolitical optics are characterized as highly damaging to US credibility and to the prospects of reaching future deals with Iran and other actors. - Middle East dynamics and US security commitments: The strikes impact the US-Israel relationship and the US-Gulf states’ security posture. Pentagon statements reportedly indicated no signs that Iran planned to attack the US first, raising questions about the strategic calculus of the strikes and the broader risk to regional stability. The conversation notes persistent supply chain and defense material challenges—including concerns about weapon stockpiles and the sustainability of military deployments in the region. - Long-range grim projections: The discussion concludes with caution about the potential long arc of decline for Western economic and political influence if current trajectories persist, contrasted with the rise of Eastern blocs. There is warning about a possible long-term, multi-decade period of geopolitical and economic restructuring, with energy security and debt dynamics at the core of those shifts. - Closing reflections: The speakers acknowledge the unpredictability of markets and geopolitics, refraining from definitive forecasts but underscoring how energy, debt, and alliance realignments will likely shape the coming period.

Japan, with 2% of the world's population, could disrupt the entire world. Despite government efforts, Japan's economy has faltered, with disappointing numbers from major auto companies and high rice prices. Japan is a major global creditor, holding over a trillion dollars in US Government debt. The yen carry trade, where investors borrow yen at low rates and invest in higher-yielding overseas assets, has powered risky financial bets for decades. However, the yen is getting stronger, which is problematic. In 2024, the unwinding of the carry trade caused a yen spike and a flash crash in Japanese stocks, impacting global markets. The unwinding continues in 2025, with Japanese government bonds collapsing and interest rates rising. This slow-motion unwinding of trillions in global leverage is making investors nervous. Japan's zero interest rates enabled the yen carry trade, a key financial strategy for 30 years.

Inflation is a long-standing tax used by governments to take resources from their people for centuries.

Japan, with only 2% of the world's population, could disrupt the entire world. Recent growth data shows Japan's economy has taken a step back. The country's three biggest auto industry names announced disappointing numbers and warned of rough waters ahead. Rice prices in Japan remain stubbornly high, causing consumers to struggle to afford food. The government has had limited success fixing the problem. Japan could increase interest rates in other countries, crash stock portfolios globally, and potentially trigger the next global recession.

The cost of basic foods is increasing. Eggs are up 48%, cookies are up 27%, and butter is up 31%. This is just the beginning, and it's a disaster.

The current system is broken and needs to be replaced. The value of the dollar should decline to account for the weak US economy, which will negatively impact the global economy. China will become the new driving force, replacing the US consumer. This will result in a gradual decline in the value of the dollar, which is the necessary adjustment.

To address inflation, the first step is to stop overspending. High taxes, deficits, and interest rates are symptoms of this issue. Governments typically finance overspending by raising taxes, borrowing, or printing money. Printing money leads to inflation, diminishing purchasing power and benefiting the wealthy while harming the working class. In the past three years, the government has created approximately $700 billion, increasing the money supply significantly while the economy grew only 4%. This imbalance drives inflation. To combat this, we need a dollar-for-dollar law that mandates finding savings for every new dollar spent. This approach will help eliminate waste, control spending, and ultimately reduce inflation.

Argentina’s decline from one of the world’s wealthiest nations to a country crippled by inflation and debt is tied to repeated economic crises and decades of mismanagement. The conversation begins with a chart illustrating that, while global inflation has hovered in the high single digits in recent years, Argentina’s inflation has not been that low for decades and has been higher than 100% for almost all of 2023. A century ago, Argentina’s GDP per person was higher than France’s or Germany’s, but persistent mismanagement over time has led to ongoing economic crises. The transcript attributes a large portion of Argentina’s inflation problem to Juan Domingo Peron, who was elected president in 1946. It notes Peron’s inspiration from Mussolini’s fascist Italy and his beliefs in nationalism and government intervention. Peron increased wages for the poor but funded extensive welfare schemes and embraced economic isolationism, which laid the foundations for economic disaster. The legacy of Peron remains dominant in Argentine politics, according to the summary, with voters having elected a series of populous presidents who have followed the same irresponsible irresponsible policies. Amid growing discontent over the economy, voters have propelled Javier Mille, described as an anarcho capitalist outsider, into the second round of the presidential election. Mille’s platform advocates a free market approach that includes slashing public spending, scrapping most taxes, and blowing up the central bank. The analysis notes, however, that even if Mille wins, a Malay government would probably be too weak to implement his radical agenda. The broader point made is that fixing Argentina’s economic dysfunction requires a political consensus that remains elusive. In summary, the narrative connects Argentina’s current high inflation and debt challenges to historical policies dating back to Peron, whose mix of welfare expansion and economic isolationism is seen as foundational to the country’s present struggles. Contemporary politics reflect a desire for radical change, embodied by Mille’s candidacy, but structural constraints and a lack of broad political consensus are presented as significant obstacles to reform.

The speaker argues that central banks should not be given more power, asserting that the answer is a resounding no. They claim that the high inflation beginning in 2021 was created by central banks, regardless of any explanations about wars, and assert that the economics are clear. The speaker states they could forecast from May 2020 onwards that eighteen months later there would be significant inflation because the money creation was “massive off the charts.” They allege that central banks “imposed a fake pandemic,” referencing a conspiracy-like claim about a manufactured crisis. The speaker asserts that people such as Jeffrey Epstein are part of this narrative and that Epstein, in public records, was involved as early as 2017 in “setting up the scheme of this great pandemic for some investors to make a fortune,” naming Bill Gates as an example. The statement continues, claiming that “we can also make money injecting people with stuff and solve the problem” as discussed by Epstein and Bill Gates, and characterizes this as a matter of public record about how to “get rid of the poor people.” Finally, the speaker contends that this was used “at the same time to push digital ID.”

The conversation centers on a perceived collision of finance, politics, and ideology at the highest level, framing a looming “great reset” as a plan to control money, freedom of movement, and human existence. Tucker Carlson’s interview with Alex Jones is described as opening a door to a topic mainstream outlets avoid, with the question posed: how much time remains before the great reset becomes reality? Key claims and points discussed: - The global elite, including Goldman Sachs, JP Morgan, the IMF, the World Bank, and the World Economic Forum, are portrayed as deciding in the last few years to “deal with monetary debt worldwide” through inflation, affecting corporate, governmental, and individual debt, with Trump’s stance described as accepting inflation alongside expansion of goods. - The Great Reset is depicted as a plan by leftist UN, WEF elements to implement post-industrial, carbon tax policies that will yield stagflation (high inflation with ongoing recession), described as a “perfect storm of hell on earth.” - The globalists allegedly want to create a worldwide system of “more manageable slaves” by breaking down borders, lowering all levels of economic status, and establishing small and rural city-states (reminiscent of a Hunger Games scenario) while tech and medicine are centralized above a devalued population; this is presented as the official policy for 2030. - Depopulation and resource restriction are asserted as deliberate strategies to crash the world economy, enable bank loans to fund a new cashless system, and implement a social credit system. Carbon lockdowns and 15-minute cities are described as tools for totalitarian control. - The UN’s and globalists’ aim is claimed to be feudalism or neo-feudal capitalism, a system where a few elites retain rights while others are stripped of them, an economic model presented as the oldest form of government being revived. - Elon Musk is cited as recognizing the existential threat, and the importance of mobilizing political and legislative action is emphasized. - The dialogue highlights high-level influence over policy, including John Kerry’s statements on cutting global farming, and the actions of global financial players like BlackRock. The depiction is that BlackRock’s influence over investment and ESG policies is being challenged by state-level pushback. - Recent legal and political countermeasures are noted: attorney generals winning cases in Texas and elsewhere against BlackRock’s climate and fossil-fuel initiatives; states pulling pension funds from BlackRock; public admissions from Larry Fink and shifts away from certain ESG directives in some regions. - The overarching narrative asserts that the aim is to demoralize free Western societies, to consolidate global power, and to ensure there is nowhere for free societies to escape to, thereby reinforcing a globalist control structure. Overall, the discussion portrays a globalist scheme involving monetary manipulation, demographic and political restructuring, and technological and legal controls intended to establish a new world order, with mainstream opposition framed as insufficient and the West needing to resist to preserve freedom.

The speaker explains that major central banks globally target 2% inflation. This helps people by anchoring inflation at that rate. It is believed that people's expectations about inflation have a real effect on it. If people expect inflation to increase by 5%, businesses and households will also expect it and it will likely happen. Therefore, aiming for 2% inflation helps stabilize and control inflation rates.

A loaf of bread costs 50% more today than before the pandemic. Ground beef is up almost 50%.

Mario and Jeff discuss what the current geopolitical and monetary environment means for gold, the US dollar, and the broader system that underpins global finance. - Gold and asset roles - Gold is a portfolio asset that does not compete with the dollar; it competes with the stock market and tends to rise when people are concerned about risky assets. It is a “safe haven store value” rather than a monetary instrument aimed at replacing the dollar. - Historically, gold did not reliably hedge inflation in 2021–2022 when the economy seemed to be recovering; in downturns, gold becomes more attractive as a store of value. Recent moves up in gold price over the last two months are viewed as pricing in multiple factors, including potential economic downturn and questionable macro conditions. - The dollar and de-dollarization - The eurodollar system is a vast, largely ledger-based network of US-dollar balances held offshore, allowing near-instantaneous movement of funds. It is not simply “the euro,” and it predates and outlived any single country’s policy. Replacing it would be like recreating the Internet from scratch. - De-dollarization discussions are driven more by political narratives than monetary mechanics. Central banks selling dollar assets during shortages is a liquidity management response, not a repudiation of the dollar. - The dollar’s dominance remains intact because there is no ready substitute meeting all its functions. Replacing the dollar would require replacing the entire set of dollar functions across global settlement, payments, and liquidity provisioning. - Bank reserves, reserves composition, and the size of the eurodollar market - The share of US dollars in foreign reserves has declined, but this is not seen as a meaningful signal about the system’s functionality or dominance; the real issue is the level of settlement and liquidity, which remains heavily dollar-based. - The eurodollar market is enormous and largely offshore, with little public reporting. It is described as a “black hole” that drives movements in the system and is extremely hard to measure precisely. - Current dynamics: debt, safety, and liquidity - The debt ceiling and growing US debt are acknowledged as concerns, but the view presented is that debt dynamics do not destabilize the Treasury market as long as demand for safety and liquidity remains high. In a depression-like environment, US Treasuries are still viewed as the safest and most liquid form of debt, which sustains their price and keeps yields relatively contained. - Gold is safe but not highly liquid as collateral; Treasuries provide liquidity. Central banks use gold to diversify reserves and stabilize currencies (e.g., yuan), but Treasuries remain central to collateral needs in a broad financial system. - China, the US, and global growth - China’s economy faces deflationary pressures, with ten consecutive quarters of deflation in the Chinese GDP deflator, raising questions about domestic demand. Attempts to stimulate have had limited success; overproduction and rebalancing efforts aim to reduce supply to match demand, potentially increasing unemployment and lowering investment. - The US faces a weakening labor market; recent job shedding and rising delinquencies in consumer and corporate credit markets heighten uncertainty about the credit system. This underpins gold’s appeal as a store of value. - China remains heavily dependent on the US consumer; despite decoupling rhetoric, demand for Chinese goods and the global supply chain ties keep the US-China relationship central to global dynamics. The prospect of a Chinese-led fourth industrial revolution (AI, quantum computing) is viewed skeptically as unlikely to overcome structural inefficiencies of a centralized planning model. - Gold, Bitcoin, and alternative systems - Bitcoin is described as a Nasdaq-stock-like store of value tied to tech equities; it is not seen as a robust currency or a wide-scale payment system based on liquidity. It could, in theory, be a superior version of gold someday, but today it behaves like other speculative assets. - The conversation weighs the potential for a shift away from the eurodollar toward private digital currencies or a mix of public-private digital currencies. The idea that a completely decentralized system could replace the eurodollar is acknowledged as a long-term possibility, but currently, stablecoins are evolving toward stand-alone viability rather than a wholesale replacement. - The broader arc and forecast - The trade war is seen as a redistribution of productive capacity rather than a definitive win for either side; macroeconomic outcomes in the 2020s are shaped by monetary conditions and the eurodollar system’s functioning more than by policy interventions alone. - The speakers foresee a future with multipolarity and a gradually evolving monetary regime, possibly moving from the eurodollar toward a suite of digital currencies—some private, some public—while gold remains a key store of value in times of systemic risk. - Argentina, Russia, and Europe - Argentina’s crisis is framed as an outcome of eurodollar malfunctioning; IMF interventions offer only temporary stabilization in the face of ongoing liquidity and deflationary pressures. - Russia remains integrated with global finance through channels like the eurodollar system, even after sanctions; the resilience of energy sectors and external support from partners like China helps it endure. - Europe is acknowledged as facing a difficult, depressing outlook, reinforcing the broader narrative of a challenging global macro environment. Overall, gold is framed as a prudent hedge within a complex, interconnected, and evolving eurodollar system, with no imminent replacement of the dollar in sight, while the path toward a multi-currency or digital-currency future remains uncertain and gradual.

Inflation has steadily cooled over the past two years despite seeing a slight stall in October and November 2024. Prices for items like gasoline, used cars, and energy have declined accordingly. But food prices continue to outpace inflation, increasing by 28% since 2019. Eighty six percent of consumers reported feeling frustrated with rising grocery prices, and over a third said they have resorted to buying fewer items to save money. That's one of the real gauges people have of their cost of living because it's an important aspect of their cost of living, and it's something that we have a lot of exposure to. We go to the grocery store. We pick up the different products. We look at the prices.

The Federal Reserve's actions are worrisome. They've lost trillions by borrowing money at high rates (5.4% from banks, 5.3% from funds like Fidelity and Vanguard) to buy government bonds. This artificially inflates the government's perceived financial health, encouraging excessive borrowing when rates were low. This process diverts capital from the private sector, hindering business growth and job creation. Instead of the Fed holding massive balances, that money should be used by businesses for expansion and innovation. The Fed's actions are mirrored by other major central banks globally, exacerbating the problem. It's not money printing; it's expensive borrowing that harms the economy. Freeing up these funds would allow banks to lend to small businesses and stimulate economic growth.

The Federal Reserve just said that the expectation is higher inflation and higher unemployment in 2025. In support of our goals, today the Federal Open Market Committee decided to leave our policy interest rate unchanged. The risks of higher unemployment and higher inflation appear to have risen, and we believe that the current stance of monetary policy leaves us well positioned to respond in a timely way to potential economic developments. So it's primarily being driven by the tariffs. If the large increases in tariffs that have been announced are sustained, they're likely to generate a rise in inflation, a slowdown in economic growth, and an increase in unemployment. The effects on inflation could be short lived, reflecting a one time shift in the price level. It is also possible that the inflationary effects could instead be more persistent.