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Since the COVID-19 pandemic, Canada's housing market has faced significant challenges. Low interest rates led to a surge in borrowing and a 50% increase in house prices between 2020 and 2022. As interest rates rose to combat inflation, variable-rate mortgage holders, about a third of Canadians, saw immediate payment increases. Banks extended mortgage amortization lengths, leading to some mortgages stretching 70-90 years. High prices and interest rates have made homeownership unaffordable for many, with only 10% of Canadians able to afford a home currently. Homeownership rates are falling, exacerbated by a growing housing shortage. Increased immigration, around 1,000,000 people per year, strains the economy, healthcare system, and housing supply. Canada builds approximately 200,000 new homes annually, far short of the required 5,800,000 in the next seven years. Soaring apartment rents and rising homelessness are consequences. There is a lack of political will to address the issue due to financial constraints and fear of alienating homeowners. Despite public concern, immigration levels remain high. The situation is expected to worsen, with potential consequences including preventable deaths and increased homelessness.

BlackRock has purchased £1,400,000,000 worth of UK homes, and Lloyds Bank aims to own 50,000 homes by 1930. Massive institutions are buying up UK homes, potentially leading to a society where homeownership is unattainable and people are forced to rent. The next fifteen to twenty years may represent the last opportunity to buy a home. Renters will not be able to negotiate with massive US private equity firms, where they are just a line item. Multinationals are buying up all of the homes in the UK.

Canada's housing market worsened post-COVID-19 due to lowered interest rates and soaring house prices. Unlike the US, Canadian mortgages typically last five years and are then renewed at the current interest rate, impacting homeowners. Banks extended mortgage amortization lengths to lower monthly payments, leading to some Canadians facing 70-90 year mortgages. High prices and interest rates mean only 10% of Canadians can afford a home, causing homeownership rates to fall. Simultaneously, Canada's population grows by 1,000,000 per year due to increased immigration, straining the economy, healthcare, and housing supply. The economy is in a per capita recession, and the healthcare system is overwhelmed. Canada builds approximately 200,000 new homes annually, far short of the required 5,800,000 in seven years. Immigration policies favor skilled labor, not construction workers. Rents are soaring, leading to increased homelessness. No political party has a viable plan to increase housing supply due to financial constraints and fear of alienating homeowners. Lowering immigration is also off the table due to political sensitivities.

During my presidency, mortgage rates reached an all-time low of 2.6%. However, currently, it is difficult to obtain loans as banks are reluctant to lend money. With a $2,000 monthly mortgage payment, you can only afford a house valued at less than $295,000. In contrast, under the Trump administration, the same payment would have allowed you to purchase a house worth $460,000 today.

We now have the most expensive electricity in Europe, costing us a fortune because we are tied to the common electricity market. This has led to absurdly high costs, totaling 100 billion euros, which is six times the deficit of the retirement system that was supposed to be filled by making the French work two years longer. This energy cost is 6 times our debt, amounting to 300 billion euros, and could increase by 13 to 14 billion euros if inflation remains at its current level of 7%. To support Radio Courtoisie in producing more independent shows, visit soutenir.radio-courtoisie.fr. Thank you in advance.

When we see downgrades like this, it typically makes the cost of borrowing more expensive for the consumer. You're already seeing it today, and the average thirty year fixed mortgage went up to past 7%. We haven't seen that since April. We also know that homebuilder sentiment, for example, is at the lowest level since 2023 according to the National Association of Homebuilders, their monthly index. We also know that it could have a hampering effect on the ability of the Federal Reserve to make a decision that would sit well with consumers who are looking to enter the, you know, housing market or trying to borrow a car. We heard from the Fed president of Atlanta who said possibly only one quarter point rate cut given what is happening not just with the downgrade, but also that volatility that we're seeing when it comes to tariffs.

The government will soon send letters requiring homeowners to make costly improvements to their houses, while landlords will increase rent due to rising costs. This is a result of the energy performance of buildings directive, which aims to have all privately owned houses at energy class d by 2033 and zero emission homes by 2050. The estimated cost per house is around €100,000, forcing many to sell. This threatens the middle class and could lead to a feudal system, with big international companies seizing properties. It is crucial to resist and refuse to accept this wealth transfer, as ownership is essential. Disobedience is necessary, despite the consequences.

Alex Kraner and Glenn discuss the geopolitical and economic fallout from Iran’s weekend strikes and the broader shifts in global risk, energy, and power blocs. - Oil and energy impact: Iran’s strikes targeted energy infrastructure, including Ras Tanura in Saudi Arabia, and crude prices jumped about 10% with Friday’s close around $73.50 and current levels near $80 per barrel. Prices could push higher if Hormuz traffic is disrupted or closed, given that one in five barrels of crude exports pass through the Hormuz gates. The potential for further oil disruptions is acknowledged, with the possibility of triple-digit or higher prices depending on how the conflict evolves. - Market dynamics and energy dependence: The guest notes a hockey-stick pattern in uptrends across markets when driven by large asset holders waking up to energy exposure, referencing shadow banking as a driver of rapid moves. He points to vast assets under management (approximately $220 trillion) among pension funds, hedge funds, endowments, and insurers that could push energy markets higher if they reallocate toward oil futures and energy-related assets. He emphasizes that energy is essential for broad economic activity, and a curtailed oil economy would slow economies globally. - European vulnerabilities: Europe faces a fragile energy security position, already dealing with an energy crisis and decreased reliance on Russian hydrocarbons. Disruptions to LNG supplies from Qatar or other sources could further threaten Europe, complicating efforts by Ursula von der Leyen and Christine Lagarde to manage inflation and debt. The panel highlights potential increased debt concerns in Europe, with Lagarde signaling uncertainty and the possibility of higher interest rates, and warns of a possible future resembling Weimar-era debt dynamics or systemic stress in European bonds. - Global geopolitics and blocs: The discussion suggests a risk of the world fracturing into two blocs, with BRICS controlling more diverse energy supplies and the West potentially losing its energy dominance. The US pivot to Asia could be undone as the United States becomes more entangled in Middle East conflicts. The guests anticipate renewed US engagement with traditional alliances (France, Britain, Germany) and a possible retraction from attempts to pursue multipolar integration with Russia and China. The possibility of a broader two-block, cold-war-like order is raised, with energy as a central question. - Iran and US diplomacy optics: The negotiations reportedly had Iran willing to concede to American proposals when the leadership was assassinated, prompting questions about US policy and timing. The attack is described as damaging to public opinion and diplomacy, with potential impeachment momentum for Trump discussed in light of his handling of the Iran situation. The geopolitical optics are characterized as highly damaging to US credibility and to the prospects of reaching future deals with Iran and other actors. - Middle East dynamics and US security commitments: The strikes impact the US-Israel relationship and the US-Gulf states’ security posture. Pentagon statements reportedly indicated no signs that Iran planned to attack the US first, raising questions about the strategic calculus of the strikes and the broader risk to regional stability. The conversation notes persistent supply chain and defense material challenges—including concerns about weapon stockpiles and the sustainability of military deployments in the region. - Long-range grim projections: The discussion concludes with caution about the potential long arc of decline for Western economic and political influence if current trajectories persist, contrasted with the rise of Eastern blocs. There is warning about a possible long-term, multi-decade period of geopolitical and economic restructuring, with energy security and debt dynamics at the core of those shifts. - Closing reflections: The speakers acknowledge the unpredictability of markets and geopolitics, refraining from definitive forecasts but underscoring how energy, debt, and alliance realignments will likely shape the coming period.

Sean Rein, author and founder/managing director of the China Market Research Group, discusses China’s current dynamics, opportunities, and global context with Glenn. Rein argues that China in 2026 is fundamentally different from China in 2016, with real estate, consumer confidence, and demographics as central challenges, but also with strong opportunities driven by indigenous innovation and a rapid reorientation toward self-reliance. On current challenges, Rein highlights real estate weakness as the primary concern: housing prices in top cities have fallen 30–40%, with slower property turnover and anemic transaction volumes. He distinguishes China’s situation from a US-style financial crisis, noting most homeowners have substantial mortgage equity (50–100% down) so there is no systemic panic selling. The result is stagnation rather than collapse, with consumer anxiety suppressing spending and delaying entrepreneurship. This consumer reticence, compounded by a large household savings stock (~$20 trillion) and a shrinking willingness to spend, threatens longer-term demographic goals (lower birth rates, delayed or avoided marriage) and complicates future growth. On opportunities, Rein emphasizes China’s shift toward indigenous innovation and self-reliance, a pivot that began under the Trump era’s sanctions regime and has intensified since. He argues that Chinese companies are now prioritizing technology—AI, semiconductors, NEVs, and broader green tech—alongside agriculture and food supply diversification (beef, soybeans, blueberries) to reduce exposure to Western import controls. He notes that Western observers often misread China’s trajectory due to outdated information from observers who left China years ago. He cites strong performance in Chinese equities (second-best global performance after Korea, up ~30% in a recent period) and asserts that Chinese tech firms (e.g., Alibaba, Baidu) are rapidly advancing, challenging passive stereotypes of China as merely a copycat. Rein also contends that China’s universities and talent pools are rising in global rankings, and that China’s approach to innovation now blends capital, government support, engineering talent, and an ecosystem that can outpace Western models that rely more on venture capital dynamics. On geopolitics and global leadership, Rein argues China is a natural partner with the United States, more so than with Russia, and that Western framing of China as an adversary is outdated. He contends that China’s strategy includes self-reliance in critical tech and a diversified supply chain—reducing vulnerability to sanction regimes by building internal capabilities and alternate sources. In energy and resources, China remains dependent on imports for oil (notably Iran as a major supplier) and is actively expanding renewables (wind, solar) and nuclear power, while securing strategic reserves to stabilize prices. He notes Europe as a potential beneficiary if it pursues reciprocity and deeper integration with Chinese markets, suggesting joint ventures and non-tariff barriers to ensure fair access for European firms, and criticizing European policymakers for hampering Chinese investment and technology transfer. On the US-China trade war, Rein calls tariffs a total failure overall, citing sectoral shifts in sourcing (China-plus-one strategies) but noting that costs often remain lower with Chinese imports due to tariff carve-outs and exceptions. He emphasizes that global supply chains have adapted to diversify away from single sources (China, the US, Brazil, Argentina, Taiwan, Vietnam), but asserts China still holds disproportionate leverage in critical areas like rare earths, refining, and certain energy and mineral markets. He argues that America’s coercive tools have backfired in many respects, and that Europe’s leverage lies in pragmatic, reciprocal relationships with both powers. Near-term outlook, Rein expects China to continue focusing on raising the quality of life for the large middle and lower-middle class, expanding access to health care and education, and creating a moderately prosperous society. He suggests that true wealth creation in China will come from within the middle 80–90% of the population, while a comparatively smaller elite may see gains in education and health services. He also notes that for individuals seeking the most dramatic financial upside, the United States (e.g., Austin, Silicon Valley) remains a more fertile landscape. As for his personal work, Rein promotes his book, The Finding the Opportunities in China and the New World Order, and mentions active presence on Twitter and LinkedIn, with possible future podcasting.

The Canadian government has introduced new mortgage guidelines to help homeowners facing high interest rates. Many households are struggling with mortgage renewals, as rates are expected to increase significantly. The guidelines include allowing temporary extensions of payment periods and exempting homeowners from stress tests when switching lenders. However, experts believe these measures won't have a significant impact, as many banks were already implementing similar practices. Some homeowners are already selling their properties due to affordability issues, and if rates remain high, it could lead to further downward pressure on prices. While inflation has stabilized, the governor of the Bank of Canada has warned that interest rates may remain high for a longer period.

The government will soon send letters requiring homeowners to make costly improvements to their houses, while landlords will increase rent due to rising costs. This is a result of the Energy Performance of Buildings Directive, which aims to have all privately owned houses at energy class D by 2033 and zero emission homes by 2050. The estimated cost per house is around €100,000, making it unaffordable for many. This could lead to forced selling and a shift towards renting, eroding middle-class home ownership. It may also result in big companies seizing properties, creating a feudalistic system. This is seen as a control tactic rather than an environmental initiative, and disobedience is urged to protect ownership rights.

The EU is working on a draft law that could lead to the expropriation of older residential buildings that don't meet energy efficiency standards. By 2030, these buildings may no longer be used, meaning owners can't live in them or rent them out. This follows the logic of German economics minister Robert Hebeck, who believes certain industries may stop producing instead of going bankrupt. Landlords who own multiple apartment buildings but can't afford to renovate them energetically will no longer be allowed to rent them out, resulting in a loss of rental income and worthless real estate. This could lead to foreclosure and financial ruin. The state can easily forbid property use, leaving owners with no choice but to comply. Many owners of older buildings can't afford the necessary renovations, which can cost thousands of dollars. Energetic renovations are also seen as a scam. The speaker, who used to specialize in affordable housing, has sold all their properties and plans to start anew in a country with fewer climate initiatives. The prospects look bleak unless one starts a business focused on energy-efficient renovations.

Canada's housing market worsened post-COVID-19 due to lowered interest rates and soaring house prices, followed by raised interest rates. Unlike the US, Canadian mortgages typically renew every five years, exposing homeowners to fluctuating interest rates. Many chose variable rates during the pandemic, and now face increased costs. Banks extended mortgage amortization lengths to 70-90 years to lower monthly payments. High prices and rates make homeownership unattainable for many, with only 10% of Canadians able to afford a home currently. Homeownership rates are falling. Simultaneously, Canada's population grows by 1,000,000 per year due to increased immigration, straining the economy, healthcare, and housing supply. The economy is in a per capita recession. Foreign medical credentials aren't recognized, exacerbating healthcare worker shortages. Construction can't keep pace with demand, needing 5,800,000 new homes in seven years but only building 2,000,000. High-skilled immigration doesn't address the construction labor shortage. Rents are soaring, leading to increased homelessness. No political party has a viable plan to increase housing supply or cut immigration, fearing backlash from homeowners or accusations of racism.

As winter approaches, an energy emergency is declared across Europe due to soaring energy prices. Since August, energy prices have skyrocketed by over 38%. In France, electricity prices have surpassed €1,000 per megawatt-hour on the wholesale market, compared to around €85 a year ago. The EU is seeking solutions to curb these price hikes, which it partly caused even before imposing sanctions on Russia. The European nuclear power plants, particularly in France, are in a state of advanced decay. Only 24 out of 56 EDF nuclear reactors were operational on September 1st. France, usually self-sufficient and an exporter, is now forced to rely on the European market, contributing to the price surge. The EU's blind and inappropriate sanctions against Russia, along with questionable energy agreements with Azerbaijan, further exacerbate the situation. Members of the Identity and Democracy group have proposed a resolution to protect fiscal sovereignty, European production chains, and implement a raw materials policy to reduce dependence on external suppliers. They also call for a reduction in VAT on electricity, gas, petrol, and oil to alleviate the burden on households and businesses. The European people should not bear the consequences of the EU's ideological decisions.

Housing prices and interest rates have doubled, making homes unaffordable due to large companies like BlackRock buying up properties. Nearly 30% of new home purchases are by investors, not individuals. This shift from ownership to renting erodes community ties and turns citizens into subjects. Homeownership fosters community involvement and care for neighbors, police, firefighters, and teachers.

Existing home sales have dropped for the fourth time in five months, marking a 23-month consecutive decline compared to the previous year. This is the worst streak since the housing boom and subsequent crash. The main factor contributing to this situation is the injection of trillions of dollars into the economy, leading to high inflation levels not seen in decades. As a result, the average home price in America has surpassed $400,000, making it increasingly unaffordable for the average person. The Goldman Sachs affordability index is currently at its lowest point ever, with monthly payments for a house with a 20% down payment averaging around $2,310.

During the COVID-19 pandemic, Canada's housing market was heavily impacted. The Bank of Canada lowered interest rates, leading to increased borrowing for home purchases. However, when inflation hit, interest rates were raised, causing mortgage costs to rise. Variable rate mortgages became more expensive, affecting a third of Canadian homeowners, while fixed rate mortgages also faced higher interest rates upon renewal. To avoid a housing bust, banks extended the length of mortgages, resulting in some Canadians having mortgages that will take 70-90 years to pay off. The combination of high housing prices and interest rates has made it nearly impossible for first-time buyers to enter the market. Canada's population growth, driven by immigration, has strained the economy, healthcare system, and housing supply. The country's political parties lack plans to address the housing crisis, and the situation is expected to worsen before action is taken.

The perception of a housing shortage is wrong, similar to 2005-2008. The pandemic caused a temporary surge in housing demand as people fled cities, mirroring historical trends. However, with a shrinking population, deportations, slowing immigration, and low birth rates, long-term housing demand is questionable. Major homebuilders monopolistically control supply in needed locations and have unique access to financing. New homes purchased, a large proportion financed with teaser rates like in 2004-2006, are now facing rate roll-offs. Homeowners who gambled on Fed rate cuts are seeing mortgage rates increase from 2% to potentially 7%, impairing their spending ability.

Evergrande, the world's largest property developer, has gone bankrupt, causing an 8% drop in indexes. This is part of a larger issue in China, where all public or listed property developers are facing default bankruptcy. China's economy heavily relied on real estate for growth, but now the sector is collapsing after an unregulated climb. The situation is comparable to the US financial crisis, but with three and a half times more banking leverage. China's regulators are trying to protect individuals from short sellers, but the situation is expected to worsen.

Millions of Americans are going without home insurance due to soaring prices, particularly in California and Florida. In California, policies are increasing by double digits, leading insurers like State Farm and Allstate to exit the market. In Florida, insurers are facing numerous frivolous lawsuits, causing them to withdraw as well. Nationwide, insurance costs have risen by 20% since last year. As a result, 12% of American homeowners, representing about 17 million homes, are now without insurance coverage. This includes many low-income individuals who cannot afford the high costs. Losing a home not only means losing possessions but also being responsible for debris removal, which can be expensive. This situation further exacerbates the housing affordability crisis, particularly for young families and millennials.

Canada's housing market worsened post-COVID-19 due to lowered interest rates and soaring house prices. Unlike the US, Canadian mortgages typically have five-year terms, leading to frequent renewals at new rates. Many opted for variable rates during the pandemic, and when the Bank of Canada raised rates, a third of mortgages became more expensive. Banks extended mortgage amortization lengths to avoid a housing bust, resulting in some Canadians facing 70-90 year mortgages. High prices and interest rates have made homeownership unattainable for many, with only 10% of Canadians able to afford a home currently. Homeownership rates are falling, exacerbated by a growing housing shortage. Increased immigration, reaching one million new residents per year, strains the economy and healthcare system. The economy is in a per capita recession, and the healthcare system is overwhelmed. Canada builds approximately 200,000 new homes annually, far short of the required 5.8 million in seven years. Immigration policies favor skilled labor, not construction workers. Rents are soaring, leading to increased homelessness. There is a lack of political will to address the issue due to financial constraints and fear of alienating homeowners. Lowering immigration is also politically unpopular.

The price of gas and electricity in Europe has skyrocketed due to sanctions against Russia and the dependence on gas power plants. Private electricity providers in France are forced to buy expensive property titles on the European market to maintain their customer base, resulting in higher electricity bills. Unregulated private providers are putting millions of French citizens in financial trouble. This situation benefits financial giants at the expense of the real economy. Some companies, like Hyberdrola, have even asked their customers to switch to EDF to avoid purchasing electricity on the market. As more people turn to EDF for regulated tariffs, the company will have to share its electricity with a larger customer base. However, due to a lack of investment in power plants and renewable energy, EDF's production is decreasing while the number of customers is increasing, leading to a shortage of electricity.

US banks are facing significant losses due to the decrease in value of securities and loans caused by rising interest rates. Estimates suggest that the overall losses for the US banking system could reach $1.8 trillion, making many smaller banks insolvent. The higher rate regime is considered a major threat due to the current high levels of debt, which were not present during previous periods of high interest rates. The combination of negative supply shocks, reduced growth, and inflation, along with high debt ratios, creates an unstable economic and financial environment. Central banks' attempts to achieve both price stability and financial stability are challenged by the systemic risks and potential insolvency faced by banks. This situation is expected to lead to a credit crunch, tightening of credit standards, and a significant impact on the real economy.

Americans are struggling to afford homes as prices continue to rise. Home prices in March increased by 0.4% compared to February, marking the second consecutive month of gains. Many people feel hopeless about ever being able to afford a house, with one person mentioning how their parents' house has skyrocketed in value over the years. Owning a home is now seen as a luxury that only the rich can afford, which is a radical shift from what people expected when they were younger. The rental housing market is also causing distress, with exorbitant fees just to apply for an apartment. The lack of affordable housing is a major issue, leading to homelessness and societal blame on the victims rather than addressing the problem.