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Einar Tangen discusses how he interprets global change as a shift from a unipolar system to multipolarity, arguing that China is not trying to replace the United States’ hegemonic role in finance. Instead, China is building alternatives that help manage trade and finance across multiple centers of power, alongside a broader political and military approach that emphasizes security, development, sovereignty, and settling disputes without “tanks.”
On the political side, Tangen says China has invested $1.4 billion in the Belt and Road Initiative and presents itself as acting differently from the United States. He argues Washington struggles to imagine other countries acting unlike Washington, which he frames as part of the difficulty in dealing with China.
On the financial side, Tangen explains China’s goal as enabling more trade without replicating the US dollar-centered system. He says the US dollar’s hegemonic status made borrowing cheap and made American goods more expensive internationally, “hollowed out the US economy,” and created hot money flows. In response, China has expanded trade-supporting mechanisms: increasing trade volume by allowing more bonds to be sold, and creating systems that allow borrowing short-term against bonds held from trading with China, so counterparties do not have to sell bonds to meet payment needs. He emphasizes that China has not opened its internal “capital account,” meaning the yuan is not freely convertible from inside China to outside. He also cites concerns about “dirty money” flowing out, alongside strict capital controls inside China.
Tangen then argues that China is moving toward an electronic currency and “doing away with cash.” He describes how a digital system would make transactions traceable for the government, enabling tax collection “at the point of the transaction,” faster reporting and analysis, reduced reliance on accountants, and a mechanism for yuan convertibility in certain circumstances. He links this to preventing illicit money flows and requiring individuals to explain where money came from when money moves into electronic systems. He adds that this kind of system change is not only China’s, saying every country would do similar things for efficiency, tax collection, and potentially reducing corruption. He also mentions efficiency gains such as lowering transaction costs between one-third and 50% through a system introduced in Hong Kong, and says similar efficiencies drive China’s competitiveness in manufacturing and logistics.
In response to questions about “de-dollarization,” Tangen says China is not trying to replace the US dollar and “does not want that place,” viewing it as dangerous. He argues China’s motivation is primarily risk reduction in trade: he claims that of 195 countries registered in the world, about 140 are ones where China and that country are the number one trade partners, implying a need to reduce risk between those trading relationships. He portrays the US dollar’s weakness as coming from the US’s debt situation—he cites roughly $40 trillion in growing debt—and from existing financial arrangements that protect major institutions earning fees.
Tangen states that multiple digital payment systems are coming, not only from China, and that businesses will choose the cheaper option if secure and safe. He argues other countries cannot be forced into adopting a particular system through threats and tariffs, because legal and illegal alternatives exist when they are cheaper.
When asked what the US might do to counter China, Tangen says the US is pursuing containment policies, including blacklisting and efforts to disrupt China’s bottlenecks. He emphasizes that China’s key bottleneck is technology rather than simply raw materials, noting that while other countries had rare-earths resources, the refining process for high purity was costly and difficult, leading them to abandon it. He says Chinese refining processes represent a 10–15 year technological advance and lower costs, giving China an edge. He also claims China has become the largest supplier in many intermediate and input areas, including elements used in manufacturing and defense-related components.
Regarding disruption tactics, Tangen argues that efforts to cut off energy flows have not worked as intended because China has “demand destruction” and shifts to alternatives, while much oil and gas goes into non-engine products (chemicals, plastics, clothing, hydrogen carbons) that remain useful. He contrasts this with China’s ability to route trade around choke points through initiatives like Belt and Road land corridors toward Europe, Africa, and the Middle East, and he references a northern corridor through Russian-controlled waters.
To explain how the US could “get out” of its predicament, Tangen argues the US should rely on its strengths in attracting global talent, but he claims anti-immigrant dynamics and suspicions of foreigners—especially people who look Asian—push people away. He says some Nobel Prize winners and esteemed university academics have left and many are going to China or Europe. He argues the US must welcome them to develop science and convert it into globally valuable goods and services that add productivity and support higher wages. He also argues automation and artificial intelligence are attacking middle-class white-collar work and that societies need retraining; he cites Finland’s law providing retraining every nine years.
On Europe, Tangen describes three-way dynamics among the US, Europe, and China and claims Europe has inherited and replicated US and European empire logic historically, while now facing consequences. He argues Europe is struggling due to lost cheap energy tied to its involvement in the Ukraine war, internal division, and its dependence on the US via NATO. He says Europe buys a large portion of its military hardware and ammunition from the US, develops only a smaller portion of its own technology, and lacks rare-earth supply alternatives that China would not provide if they could be used against China. He argues Europe’s defense-industrial capacity takes 10–15 years to develop and requires large investments, while political turnover makes long-term industrial investments risky.
He proposes that Europe should spend more on people and productivity rather than arms, and should invest in specialized small and medium-sized enterprises using digital tools. He highlights smart contracts and smart agents that could clarify responsibilities, automate checks (such as whether materials and timing for production are met), and reduce legal and banking friction. He argues these tools and digital efficiencies make it easier to find niche specialized suppliers and connect them to global markets.
In closing, Tangen agrees with the idea that militarism can be used to prop up political legitimacy and distract from economic weaknesses, but he emphasizes that producing bombs and producing cars are not economically equivalent because bombs do not improve productivity while cars enable productive work and an upward path for those producing components.