reSee.it Video Transcript AI Summary
Afshin Rattansi opens by linking NATO’s 77th annual summit to ongoing wars, saying NATO weaponry is used in Gaza and Lebanon, in Bandar Abbas in Iran, and in a proxy war against Russia. He also claims NATO leaders and President Trump want expanded conflict, while NATO member populations face hardship. Rattansi speaks with James Carden, editor of the Realist Review and senior advisor to the American Committee for U.S.-Russian Accord.
Carden says Trump publicly scolded NATO at the start of the summit for not supporting the American war against Iran, including a threat to cut off trade with Spain. He argues that behind closed-door sessions Trump aligned with a neoconservative agenda, citing claims about offering Ukraine “licenses to build Patriot missiles,” and comparing the second Trump administration to the “third term for Bush-Cheney.” Carden says Trump’s approach at the summit reflects continuity with post-9/11-era policy.
Rattansi asks whether Trump’s fear of nuclear war should translate into different action, contrasting him with Biden and Obama. Carden responds that Trump’s prior actions contradict his alleged fear, listing withdrawal from the 1987 INF Treaty, the ripping up of the Open Skies Treaty, and non-renewal of New START. He says Trump has come under influence of American neoconservative lobbying and frames this as support for endless war in Ukraine and the Middle East, including decisions to continue striking Iran and to walk away from an MOU.
Rattansi raises concerns about legacy and a possible pivot away from neocons. Carden says that continuing to fund the Ukraine war and provide Patriot missile-related support signals no end to the conflict and argues the advisors around Trump are not serious about ending the war or engaging Russia diplomatically. He says Zelensky is “walking away quite happy” from the Ankara summit.
On reports that Ukraine’s drone campaign signals success and strikes deep into Russia, Carden says for every Ukrainian drone strike inside Russia, Russia responds with a missile, and he claims Ukrainians are suffering far more. He says the headlines do not change the balance of forces on the ground and criticizes the mainstream narrative that Ukraine is “a drone away from victory,” adding that Trump lacks people telling him the truth.
Rattansi asks what neocons and Western elites want. Carden says many want “a resounding defeat of Russia,” dissolution of Russia, and regime change, asserting that European elites object to diplomacy and call advocates for settlement “puppets of the Kremlin.” He says Trump and those around him are “squarely in that camp.”
Rattansi asks whether Russia shares blame for not imposing “fierce red lines,” and for Finland hosting nuclear weapons. Carden says Russia likely made mistakes after the 2014 Maidan coup, including trusting the Minsk process; he cites Angela Merkel’s later revelation that Minsk was used to buy time for Ukraine to build defenses and military. He describes the war as reminiscent of World War I with drones, making it difficult for either side to break through, and frames the options for Zelensky and Putin as continuing to waste lives or seeking settlement, adding that he says alternatives to war exist but have not been pursued due to pressure from Washington and Brussels.
Asked about Washington’s “deep state,” Carden says the views he describes are “pretty uniform,” calling Landau and Colby outliers. He claims Trump relies on neoconservative influence, including Mark Thiessen and Jared Kushner, and says the national security advisor and secretary of state are hardline neoconservatives, naming Marco Rubio. He argues the window for responsible action is closing as U.S. primary politics approaches, with calls to “double down” because both parties believe the war is winnable for Ukraine.
During the follow-up, Rattansi questions whether Trump could pivot after U.S. midterms, and whether he might end the war or stop U.S. funds to Zelensky. Carden doubts a political turn like Reagan’s, saying Trump would need different people and a narrower conception of American interests, asserting the Donbass has “nothing to do with the United States” and that Crimea, Donbass, or access to the Sea of Azov do not affect American strategic interests.
Rattansi asks about leverage for diplomacy and claims about possible propaganda “false flags.” Carden says the United States must leverage NATO, arguing that threatening to turn off funding or walk away would create leverage, while simply following European preferences leaves none.
On energy impacts from wars in West Asia, Carden links energy prices to midterm politics, saying Trump must choose between continuing the war against Iran on behalf of Netanyahu and risking midterms due to oil prices, or prioritizing his constituents’ well-being. He speculates that if populations replace European governments, negotiation might become possible.
Rattansi asks whether Trump might leave NATO. Carden says it is “mostly an act,” suggesting Trump could try to distance the U.S. from NATO only if he brought in ideological allies, but he argues major changes are unlikely given appointments and staffing.
Rattansi shifts back to West Asia, asking what this means for the region given Kushner and Rubio connections to Israeli-linked sources. Carden says the U.S.-Iran conflict should not be treated in isolation, identifying Israel’s “drive for greater Israel” as the “true driver,” tying it to Gaza, removal of Palestinians from the West Bank and southern Lebanon. He says progress between the U.S. and Iran will not occur until that project is addressed, and rejects the claim that Iran sought nuclear weapons, citing the Ayatollah’s fatwa against such weapons.
Finally, Rattansi asks whether the site of Syria’s former al-Qaeda leader Jelani (given as “Jelani of Syria”) with Trump suggests Democrats’ political situation. Carden says Hillary Clinton may go for the presidency in 2028, citing a “very weak” field, her remaining control and influence in the Democratic Party, and the idea that none of the Democrats he spoke to think Gavin Newsom has a chance. He says Clinton has money, influence, and goodwill, and if she becomes the candidate it would likely produce “regime change wars” that depose leaders such as Assad and replace them with radical Islamists like Jelani.