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CNN reported that the US Coast Guard is tracking a suspected Russian spy ship off the coast of Hawaii. The speaker, who has Russian friends, claims that Putin sent three ships to help the American people because he believes the American president and elites won't assist their own citizens. The speaker mentions that Special Force members confirmed the presence of the ships and criticizes the idea that they are spy ships. They argue that Putin wants strong and healthy citizens and is not trying to enslave his people like the American government. The speaker hopes to receive more reports and pictures of the situation. They believe that the American government, led by Biden and the elites, is not helping the people in Hawaii.

In a Ukrainian village, a column of Russian military vehicles was stopped by Ukrainian security forces. There were damaged Russian vehicles in the area, leading to questions about who was responsible. The damaged vehicles were attributed to Ukrainian artillery, while the bombing of the village was attributed to Russia. The discussion highlights the conflicting narratives surrounding the events in the village.

- The conversation opens with a discussion of escalating dynamics in the Ukraine conflict as a new year begins, focusing on how the rules of war have shifted over the past four years, including the depth of NATO involvement and when actions cross into direct war. The speakers note that political leadership has largely been exempt from the war, but Russia has had opportunities to strike Ukrainian leaders that have been avoided, raising questions about future targets and the diplomatic path. - Speaker 1 argues that the political leadership has indeed been outside the war, and that voices inside Russia are growing more critical. They challenge the Western portrayal of Vladimir Putin as a dictator, suggesting Putin has restrained destruction that could hit the West, and asserting that the West and Zelenskyy have grown comfortable with exemptions. They warn that continued escalation could lead to a nuclear conflict with Europe at risk due to its geographic compactness, citing the potential fallout from attacks on American nuclear bases and the broader geopolitical consequences. - The discussion moves to the potential consequences of Western strikes on energy infrastructure and frontline energy targets, including refineries and civilian vessels. The speakers examine how Russia might respond if its assets are attacked at sea or in the Black Sea, and the possibility of Russia forcing Ukraine to lose access to the Black Sea through strategic military actions. The analysis includes a few provocative specifics: British and European actors allegedly orchestrating or enabling attacks, the role of third-country-flagged ships, and the idea that reflagging to Russian flags could be treated as an act of war by Russia. - The dialogue delves into the operational dynamics of the Mediterranean and Black Sea theatres, noting incidents such as sunflowers and other oil cargo damage, the Caspian transit company's facilities, and the implications for Turkish oil revenue and Western economies. The speakers argue that Western powers are drawing in broader international actors and that the war could expand beyond Ukraine, potentially dragging in NATO ships and submarines in a conflict at sea. They warn that if escalation continues, it could trigger a broader, more destructive war in Europe. - The conversation shifts to the likely trajectory of the battlefield, with Speaker 1 offering a grim assessment: the Donbas front and the Zaporozhye region are nearing collapse for Ukrainian forces, with Russian forces dominating missile and drone capabilities and outmaneuvering on three axes. The analysis suggests that within two to three months, upper-river-front areas, including the Zaporozhzhia and surrounding Donbas fronts, could be fully compromised, leaving only a few large urban pockets. The absence of civilian protection and the encirclement of cities would accelerate Ukrainian withdrawals and surrender, while Russia could enhance pressure on remaining fronts, including Donbas and Sumy, Kharkiv, and Dnieper regions, as weather and terrain favor Russian movements. - The speakers discuss the impact of collapsing command posts and morale, likening the abandonment of Gudai Poia to a sign of impending broader collapse, with open terrain making Ukrainian forces vulnerable to rapid Russian breakthroughs. They suggest that strategic fortifications will be overwhelmed as the front line collapses and supply lines are severed, with a predicted sequence of encirclements and city sieges. - The US role is analyzed as both a negotiator and strategist, with the assertion that the United States has long led the proxy dimension of the conflict and continues to influence targeting and weapons delivery. The discussion questions the coherence of US policy under Trump versus Biden, arguing the conflict remains a US-led enterprise despite attempts to reframe or outsources it. The speakers describe the US as hedging its bets through ongoing military support, budgets, and intelligence cooperation, while insisting that Ukraine remains a core objective of US hegemony. - A critical examination of European Union leadership follows, with strong claims that the EU is increasingly tyrannical and undemocratic, sanctioning dissidents andSuppressing speech. The dialogue condemns the deplatforming of individuals and argues that the EU’s leadership has undermined diplomacy and negotiated peace, instead pushing toward a broader confrontation with Russia. The speakers suggest that several European countries and elites are pursuing escalating policies to maintain power, even at the risk of deepening European instability and economic collapse. - The conversation ends with reflections on broader historical patterns, invoking Kennan’s warnings about NATO expansion and the risk of Russian backlash, and noting the potential for the EU to fracture under pressure. The participants acknowledge the risk of a wider conflict that could redefine global power and economic structures, while expressing concern about censorship, deplatforming, and the erosion of diplomacy as barriers to resolving the crisis. They conclude with a cautious note to prepare for worst-case scenarios and hope for, but not rely on, better circumstances in the near term.

In the video, the speaker mentions that there is a belief in the West that Russia and Ukraine are at war. However, the speaker argues that it is actually the USA that is against Russia, using the potential of NATO and the European Union, as well as the armed forces of Ukraine. The speaker suggests that these entities are interested in weakening Russia, but also points out that China is another center of power in the world. The speaker concludes by saying that once these entities believe they can handle Russia, their next challenge will be dealing with China.

- The discussion centers on whether European actions against Russia amount to a NATO-wide escalation and could lead to direct confrontation with Russia outside Ukraine, given recent attacks on Russian energy infrastructure and civilian ships in the Black Sea, including a Russian oil tanker in the Mediterranean with reports of drones launched from Greece. Putin reportedly vowed retaliation, and the guests consider how European and U.S./NATO support for Ukraine factors into this dynamic. - Daniel Davis argues that a segment of the Western alliance wants a conflict with Russia, framing it as peace on their terms from a position of weakness. He says there is little consideration for Russia’s security requirements or a mutually acceptable peace, and that ignoring Russia’s security concerns has driven the current cycle of escalation. He notes that Western actions since 2021–2022 have ignored the Russian side and pursued war aims on Western terms, contributing to a deteriorating situation and increasing casualties on the Ukrainian side. - Davis contends that Russia has been reticent to respond to many provocations with significant actions outside Ukraine, implying that Moscow has avoided a full-scale escalation that could threaten NATO. He predicts that Putin will respond to Western strikes on Russian targets, possibly increasing pressure on Odessa and other civilian infrastructure in Ukraine, with a tit-for-tat pattern as Russia leverages its greater capacity to hit Western shipping and infrastructure. - He asserts that since 2023, the West’s approach has not reversed the battlefield dynamics; sanctions, intelligence inputs, and heavy weapon transfers have not pushed Russia out of Ukraine and have allowed NATO and European stockpiles to deplete while Russia continues to build up in key categories (missiles, air defense, logistics). He claims Europe’s commitment of large sums to Ukraine will further strain their economies and shorten their stockpiles, potentially weakening Western readiness for a wider conflict. - The guest stresses that Russia’s strategy appears to be “go slow” in Ukraine to maintain pressure without triggering a broader European or NATO intervention, while building up stockpiles to prepare for a possible expansion of war if needed. He notes that Russia has generated a stockpile advantage in missiles (including Oreshniks) and air defense that could be decisive in a broader conventional war. - The discussion covers Oreshnik missiles, with Davis explaining Russia’s aim to maximize production and use if needed, not merely deter. He argues that Western air defenses would be ineffective against such systems and that Russia’s broader stockpiling and production could outpace Western depletion. He suggests Russia’s buildup is intended to enable a decisive move if NATO or Western forces escalate, and that the West’s capacity to sustain prolonged high-tempo combat is limited. - Both speakers discuss Odessa as a likely target if Russia deems it necessary to retaliate against Western support for Ukraine, noting that recent strikes on bridges, trains, and energy facilities in the region indicate growing Russian intent to disrupt Ukraine’s rear and logistics in the event of a front-line escalation. They consider whether Russia could seize Odessa if Western concessions are not forthcoming, and whether European leaders would respond decisively if Russia moves against Ukrainian ports. - The hosts warn that Western rhetoric about a “just and lasting peace” may be misaligned with Russia’s goals and that the risk of a broader conflict—potentially involving nuclear considerations—exists if provocations continue. They caution that if the conflict widens, all sides—Russia, Ukraine, Europe, and the United States—could suffer heavy losses, and express concern about the potential for miscalculation as new weapons systems and security arrangements come into play before the year ends.

The speaker raises concerns about Russia's use of Iranian oil tankers to violate US energy sanctions. They criticize the Biden administration for allowing Iran's "ghost fleet" of tankers to grow from 70 to 300, without imposing sanctions. This has enabled Iran to increase its oil exports, funding the regime and the war in Ukraine. The speaker questions why the administration hasn't sanctioned the tankers, as Russia is now using them to aid its aggression in Ukraine. The response from Speaker 1 acknowledges the symbiotic relationship between Iran and Russia and mentions efforts to break it up. However, the speaker argues that the administration has not effectively enforced oil sanctions, allowing funds to flow to Iran for attacks on Ukraine.

Larry Johnson outlines a sequence of escalations between Russia and the United States after December 28, beginning with a failed drone attack on Vladimir Putin’s official residence and followed by Russia’s retaliatory actions in Ukraine and at sea. He describes Russia as engaging in cautious escalation: the December 28 strike signaled a deliberate move tied to a broader pattern of attacks on Russian nuclear-related targets, and the subsequent seizure of a Russian-flag tanker by the United States scene, which Russia condemned as piracy. He notes the crew composition (two Russians, eight Georgians, 20 Ukrainians) and observes that the United States released the two Russians while charging the others in the US, arguing the episode demonstrates how Washington uses force and intimidation without clear accountability. The exchange emphasizes that Russia’s response has targeted Ukraine’s energy infrastructure, rather than NATO facilities in Europe, as part of a warning to NATO about escalation risk. Russia reportedly cut 50% of Ukraine’s stored natural gas and attacked energy substations across multiple Ukrainian regions (Nyropetrov, Zaporizhzhia, Kyiv), causing widespread disruptions to heating and plumbing in winter. Kyiv officials, including Klitschko, warned residents to leave high-rise buildings to prevent pipe bursts. Johnson frames this as measured signaling rather than indiscriminate aggression, suggesting it’s a warning to the West that Moscow can reach out and touch them if escalation continues, while still aiming to avoid a full-scale direct confrontation with NATO. He remarks that Russia’s targeting of facilities owned by the United States in Ukraine signals willingness to attack US-affiliated targets inside Ukraine. The discussion then shifts to the broader geopolitical significance: US actions, including piracy at sea and attacks on Russian ships, contribute to a perception in Moscow that international law is being abandoned by the United States, especially under Trump and his aides who publicly dismiss international treaties. Johnson asserts that, from a Russian analytic perspective, this undermines trust in written agreements and pushes Russia toward preparing for broader conflict, potentially with NATO, while acknowledging Russia’s restraint—limiting strikes to Ukraine to avoid misinterpretation as a direct war with NATO. He suggests Russia might consider flagging ships with Russian or Chinese flags and deploying specialized forces on ships to deter or respond to attempts to board, as a possible evolution of maritime risk. The two discuss the purpose of Washington’s stance: is it to force concessions, provoke a broader European response, or achieve escalation dominance? Johnson asserts that US policy appears aimed at coercing Russia and pressuring Western Europe, though he notes China and India now press Russia toward negotiation; however, the Lula-like convergence of US internal dynamics and Trump’s rhetoric makes negotiations appear dead ends to Moscow. Johnson references a broader view that the US under Trump has eroded norms of international law, arguing that a shift toward force and lawless behavior leaves Russia imagining a future with reduced Western unity and increased incentives to diversify alliances with East/ Eurasian powers. On the military horizon, Johnson anticipates Ukraine’s manpower problem versus Russia’s growing mobilization, with Russia expanding its ground force to potentially over 2 million to prepare for future conflict with NATO, not merely Ukraine. He predicts continued Ukrainian misfortune on the battlefield, with major cities such as Zaporizhzhia, Dnipro, and Sumy potentially at risk of encirclement, and Kyiv facing the broader strategic impact of energy outages and urban shutdowns. He foresees possible explorations of a post-war order, including who controls weapons and governance in Ukraine; Russia might threaten US reconnaissance aircraft or vessels in denial of freedom of navigation, while NATO could become more disunited as some European leaders push for separate talks with Moscow. In sum, the interview frames the current phase as a dangerous, escalatory dynamic with potential for miscalculation, where the United States’ posture of force, the erosion of international norms, and Russia’s strategic patience converge toward a possible broader confrontation, or, at minimum, a hardening of positions and a reorientation toward Eastward-alignments.

In this video, the speaker discusses the sale of Ukrainian products, specifically grain, to Russia. They mention that their goal is to relieve pressure on the eastern part of Ukraine from the neo-regime. They explain that there are no obstacles for transporting grain to Russia, as long as President Zelensky gives the command to allow foreign ships to enter the Black Sea.

A drone carrying a significant amount of explosives approached the Olenegorsky Gorniak ship, causing it to be hit. The drone was reported to have carried nearly half a metric ton of explosives. According to a Ukrainian source, there may have been around 100 Russian soldiers or personnel on board at the time of the strike.

The Russians tried to avoid causing destruction in Ukraine during the conflict, hoping for a quick resolution. However, Ukrainian resistance was strong, escalating the situation. Russia controls the air but has not targeted critical infrastructure like trains, power plants, or government buildings in Kyiv. The speaker believes that the decision for peace or war lies with Washington, using Ukrainians as pawns in the conflict.

Speaker 0 believes that Putin's end game is to gain recognition for Crimea, control of the port in Sebastopol, and the two Russian provinces. Putin orchestrated the recent events in Ukraine to show that he can take over the country, but he doesn't want to keep it due to the risk of insurgency. Speaker 1 mentions that the Democrats are now supporting the arming of Ukrainians, which could make the situation messier than Putin anticipated. Speaker 0 suggests that Putin wants to negotiate after getting close to taking Ukraine and causing significant damage. He aims to keep the sanctions off and secure his provinces.

A drone carrying a large amount of explosives hit the Olenegorsky Gorniak ship, causing significant damage. The drone approached the ship slowly, alarming the Russians. According to a Ukrainian source, the explosive payload weighed almost half a metric ton. It is believed that around 100 Russian soldiers or personnel were on board when the strike occurred.

Ukraine has biological research facilities that they are concerned Russian forces may try to gain control of. They are working with Ukraine to prevent any research materials from falling into Russian hands. Russian propaganda groups are spreading information about a Ukrainian plot to release biological weapons, but there is no doubt in the speaker's mind that if there is an incident, it would be the Russians behind it. The Russians have a history of blaming others for their own plans.

Elon Musk confirmed blocking access to his Starlink satellite network in Crimea, which raises questions about potential repercussions. However, one speaker dismisses any concerns, claiming that Musk's actions actually prevented a larger conflict. The other speaker, who works for CNN, seems skeptical and suggests that there may be more to the situation.

The discussion opens with a note that countries negotiating with Venezuela for illegal oil are already starting to suffer, prompting questions about the future of Venezuela's oil industry. Speaker 1 responds that they will be very strongly involved in it, stating, “We have the greatest oil companies in the world, the biggest, the greatest, and we're going to be very much involved in it.” He emphasizes that they “can't do something like this,” and that they were prepared, being “out there with an armada like nobody's ever seen before.” He adds that they were prepared for a second wave, and that “this was so lethal” and “so powerful that we didn't have to,” but they were ready. He says they were prepared for a second wave going in, implying readiness for further action.

President Trump said Ukraine doesn't have good cards because Russia is bigger. However, the world has cards against Russia, and one is about to be played in the U.S. Senate. America has three branches of government, and the House and Senate are poised to act. The speaker asks what would change their mind if Russia agreed to a ceasefire.

The speaker discusses a neighboring country's invasion and its threat to Ukraine. The invader aims to conquer the entire or partial territory of Ukraine, expanding its own empire and seizing land from its neighbor. This constitutes a massive act of territorial aggression.

If Russia invades Ukraine, Nord Stream 2 will be terminated, according to Speaker 0. Speaker 1 questions how this will be accomplished since Germany controls the project. Speaker 0 assures that they will find a way to make it happen.

The speakers discuss the Nord Stream 2 pipeline and the recent sabotage on it. While there is no direct evidence, many believe Russia is responsible. The speakers point to Russia's motive and past behavior as indicators. European leaders, experts, and NATO all suspect Russia's involvement. The sabotage could escalate tensions and potentially lead to a military response. The situation has changed the nature of the war in Ukraine and raises concerns about the use of nuclear weapons. Overall, the consensus is that Russia is the likely culprit behind the pipeline attack.

Mario: Let's start with Venezuela. Do you think this is a strategy by Trump? Larry: I saw something similar back in 1988. The CIA was involved with trying to provoke Manuel Noriega into taking some sort of action. They could say, oh, well, we gotta go respond to this to set the stage for our military invasion, which I believe that in 2018, Donald Trump signed a finding authorizing a covert action by the CIA to get rid of Maduro. That attempt failed. And now the objective, get control of the oil. That's the number one priority. And I think it's being done with an eye looking forward, recognizing the potential risk. If conflict is renewed with Iran, prospect of the shutdown of Persian Gulf— Mario: Ukraine defeated Russia. Larry: Yeah. That was the plan. Russia's military is now around 1,500,000. Mario: Let’s talk Venezuela. What’s your initial reaction? When John Kuriaki suggested the best indicator is naval movements, and the buildup off Venezuela is significant. I’ve heard they have 14, twelve warships, including the Gerald Ford. Do you think they are bluffing? Is this Trump strategy? Larry: It could be a bluff. I saw something similar in 1988. I was in the CIA’s Central America branch. They tried to provoke Noriega into action to justify invasion, which happened in December 1988. What’s different now is the base infrastructure. In Panama, Quarry Heights was full; Southern Command was there. Southern Command has moved to Miami. The weaponization of the idea of a “supported vs. supporting” commander is reversed here: Southern Command would be subordinate to Special Operations Command. SOCOM cannot fight a conventional war; they’re light infantry, raids, hostage rescue. So the question is: what will the ships actually do? Shells into Venezuela won’t defeat Venezuela. Ground forces would require mass, and Venezuela is three times the size of Vietnam with rugged terrain that favors ambushes. If US troops ashore, you’d stack body bags far beyond Iraq and Afghanistan. Mario: Do Venezuelans have the will to fight Maduro? Larry: Yes. It will rally insurgents from Brazil and Colombia. If we decapitate Maduro, there are loyalists with weapons; an insurgency could follow, and the US would be hard-pressed to pacify it. The State Department’s INL/INSCR reports on narcotics note Venezuela as a transit point for marijuana and some cocaine, with fentanyl less central than claimed by Trump. The 2018 emphasis on Trendy Aragua looked CIA-driven. Trump reportedly signed a covert action finding in 2018 to remove Maduro, leading to the Guaidó fiasco; that covert action included some public diplomacy via USAID. The objective now, as you asked, is oil control and curtailing Russia, China, and Iran’s influence, with an eye toward BRICS. Mario: Could there be a decapitation strike on Maduro, and would someone like Maria take over? Larry: A decapitation strike could spark insurgency; the US would not be able to pacify it. The broader agenda seems to include a strategy to seize oil and reduce regional influence by Russia and China. Venezuela’s role as a transit point and possible BRICS alignment complicates any straightforward regime-change scenario. Mario: Moving to general foreign policy under Trump. The national security strategy (NSS) for 2025 signals a shift, but you question how binding NSS papers are. What did you make of it, and how does it relate to Ukraine? You’ve noted Trump isn’t serious about peace in Ukraine on some occasions. Larry: The NSS is a set of guidelines, not a blueprint. Europe is being asked to step up, the US distancing itself from Europe, and the strategic relationship with Europe is damaged by the perception of long-term reliability and sanctions. The document highlights China as an economic rival rather than an enemy; it criticizes Europe’s defense spending and censorship, and it frames Russia as less of a direct threat than before, though the reality is nuanced. The US-EU relationship is strained, and the US wants Europe to shoulder more of the burden in Ukraine while maintaining strategic pressure. Mario: What about Ukraine? Zelensky’s negotiation posture, security guarantees, and the Moscow terms? Larry: Putin spoke on 06/14/2024 with five Russian demands: Crimea, Zaporizhzhia, Kherson, Donetsk, and Luhansk are permanently part of Russia; Ukraine must withdraw its forces from those republics; there must be an election in Ukraine with a legitimately elected president (the Russians argue Zelensky is illegitimate for not holding elections); they suggest a successor to Zelensky and elections within 90 days. Freezing lines in Donbas is not accepted by Russia; the Russians claim further territory may be annexed with referenda. If peace talks fail, Russia is likely to push to occupy Kharkiv, Sumy, Mykolaiv, and Odessa, potentially Kyiv. Western support is insufficient to alter that trajectory, given Russia’s large artillery and drone production. The US and Europe cannot match Russia’s drone and shell output; even if they supply Tomahawks, escalation risks, including nuclear considerations, grow. Russia’s economy and war capacity remain robust, and the BRICS poles are strengthening as Western leverage wanes. Mario: What about sanctions strategy and Russia’s oil revenues? Larry: Oil remains a significant but not decisive portion of Russia’s GDP. The West’s sanctions are not enough to force collapse; Russia has endured the 1990s and remains resilient. BRICS cooperation and the shift to the Global South are changing the global order, with Russia and China deepening ties and reducing Western influence. The war in Ukraine has not produced a decisive Western victory, and the global south is moving away from Western-led sanctions, reshaping geopolitical alignments. Mario, it’s been a pleasure.

Ukraine has biological research facilities that they are concerned Russian forces may try to gain control of. They are working with Ukraine to prevent any research materials from falling into Russian hands. Russian propaganda groups are spreading information about a Ukrainian plot to release biological weapons, but there is no doubt in the speaker's mind that if there is an incident or attack, it would be the Russians behind it. The speaker believes it is a classic Russian technique to blame others for what they plan to do themselves.

President Trump said Ukraine doesn't have good cards because Russia is bigger. However, the world has cards against Russia, and one is about to be played in the U.S. Senate. In America, multiple parties are at the table, including the House and Senate, which are poised to act. The speaker asks what would change their mind if Russia agreed to a ceasefire.

If Russia invades Ukraine, Nord Stream 2 will be canceled. The speaker assures that they will find a way to stop the project, even though Germany currently controls it.

CNN reported that the US Coast Guard is tracking a suspected Russian spy ship off the coast of Hawaii. According to the speaker, Putin sent a medical emergency ship and two destroyers to help the people of Hawaii after witnessing a supposed "Holocaust" on the island. The speaker claims that the Special Force members confirmed the presence of three Russian ships. They argue that Putin is trying to assist the American people while criticizing the American government for allegedly harming its citizens. The speaker hopes to receive more information and pictures regarding the situation. They anticipate their TikTok videos being deleted and express frustration with the media's coverage of the events in Hawaii.