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There is an old joke that goes God created war so that Americans would learn geography. In 2026, they seem to be learning it the hard way. They’ve discovered that 10,900 kilometers from Washington DC lies the Strait of Hormuz, the world’s most critical choke point, a narrow strip of water between the Persian Gulf and the Gulf of Oman that stretches 167 kilometers in length, narrows to just 34 kilometers at its tightest point, and carries roughly 30,000 vessels a year. Around a fifth of the world’s traded oil and LNG flows through this corridor on normal days. Most of that oil heads to Asia, but oil prices don’t respect geography. They’re set globally. So when West Asia sneezes, fuel prices spike everywhere. Oil is only the start. Over 30% of global ammonia trade, nearly half of urea, and 20% of diammonium phosphate, key fertilizer inputs, move through this same choke point, along with about half the world’s sulfur for metal processing. If the sulfur didn’t arrive, the factory was shut down. It didn’t arrive because of the war and because the Strait of Hormuz was closed. Unlike oil, these can’t be rerouted. There are no pipelines for ammonia or urea. If Hormuz closes, the nitrogen supply chain doesn’t slow. It stops. And since synthetic nitrogen fertilizers support roughly 48% of the global population, missing the mid April application window in the Northern Hemisphere means lower yields by September. Major importers like India, Brazil, Pakistan, Bangladesh, and many African countries would quickly face fertilizer shortages, leading to higher food prices, inflation, and a widespread food security crisis affecting billions. 85% of Brazil’s fertilizer is imported. And under these conditions, we can only bring part of the land under cultivation. Meanwhile, about a third of the world’s helium, critical for semiconductors and MRIs, passes through these strait. So does nearly 10% of global aluminum and a significant share of Persian Gulf produced plastics. Even the Persian Gulf states themselves are exposed. This passage is their food lifeline. The biggest one, Saudi Arabia, imports over 80% of its food. The smallest one, Qatar, 85%. If the strait stays closed for another month or two, the food situation here is gonna get really critical. If anyone thinks the so called first world would be immune, the reality says otherwise. Since the war began, Brent crude has swung from $73 to nearly $120 at one point, adding about €500,000,000 per day in EU energy costs. In late April, the IEA warned Europe may have only six weeks of jet fuel left as West Asian imports falter. Prices have surged past $1,500 per ton. The IEA calls this “the greatest energy crisis in history.” By April 22, Lufthansa had canceled 20,000 flights with more disruptions and price hikes expected. In Germany, the industrial heart of Europe, 78.6% of firms report uncertainty about their future, rising to 87.7% in manufacturing and over 90% in chemicals, rubber, and plastics. The US isn’t insulated either. Gas prices jumped more than $1 per gallon in just six weeks, surpassing $4.10, the highest level since 2022, while the Hormuz shock fuels inflation. They said the consumer price index rose 0.9% in March, almost 1% in just one month. I haven’t seen a jump like that in years. Meanwhile, a Reuters/Ipsos poll put Trump’s approval rating at 36%, its lowest since his return to office. Forty-eight hours into the Iran war, marine insurers began canceling war risk coverage in the Persian Gulf. By March 5, commercial insurance had effectively vanished. No insurance means no shipping. No shipping means no trade. This isn’t a new insight. Back in 1507, Portuguese admiral Alfonso de Albuquerque understood that Whoever controls this choke point controls the flow between India and the Mediterranean. And by extension, global trade itself. So far, the largest empire in history finds itself with remarkably little to say against one of the oldest. Perhaps this time, the Americans picked the wrong country to learn geography.

Jiang Shuichin argues that rapid shifts in international power generally become highly disruptive and destabilizing, often coinciding with major world-order changes after major wars or state collapses. He says the Iran war could have wider ramifications beyond the Strait of Hormuz and the region, potentially dragging the broader world into escalating conflict. He explains that the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) has long been a major driver of the global economy by selling oil cheaply in US dollars and recycling revenue into the US economy. If GCC states were removed from the global economy, he says it would have “tremendous consequences.” He claims that within “a month or two” the world could run out of strategic fuel reserves, grounding airplanes. He also links the conflict to global food supply, stating that the Tigray War provides one third of the world’s fertilizer, and that during the global growing season widespread famine could occur within “five months” or “six months,” especially in Africa. On the Middle East’s reorientation, he argues that Iran can control the Strait of Hormuz de facto, collect tolls, and de facto use it to reconstruct its economy, industrialize, and build stronger trade relations with China and Russia. He says the US imposed a naval blockade to embargo Iranian oil exports to China, but that enforcement is difficult due to the Indian Ocean’s scale and US resource limitations. He asserts that the UAE is “most desperate for war” after losing control of trade through the region’s shipping and finance hub. He adds that Saudi Arabia faces long-term threat dynamics because Iranian influence and proxies affect both Hormuz/Straight security and the Red Sea. He claims Israel wants the war to continue to advance the “Greater Israel” project and warns it has discussed attacking Turkey and Egypt next. He frames the region as a “powder keg,” arguing it is hard for the status quo to persist and predicting possible future breakout regional hostilities, including possible US airstrikes against Tehran and possible Israeli false-flag escalation modeled on the Gulf of Tonkin incident. He suggests the status quo could last “the next three to five months,” arguing Trump would avoid being seen as a loser and might pursue a tentative agreement before shifting attention elsewhere. He presents Cuba as a potential “next global flash point,” arguing the US embargo blocks Cuba from accessing fuel, food, and water, and that Raúl Castro could be indicted, recalling a prior pattern involving Maduro and special forces. He says Russia is heavily invested in Cuba and that both Russia and China are trying to support it. He predicts the Middle East conflict could expand to other flashpoints worldwide, including the possibility of tensions involving North Korea and South Korea, and he claims the war in Europe will also escalate. In discussing Russia’s Ukraine war trajectory, he references an attack on a student dormitory in Luhansk that reportedly killed at least six students and says Putin promised swift retaliation, framing this as potential movement from a “special military operation” toward declaring war and switching to “total war.” He then argues that European elites are trapped in a self-reinforcing fantasy that Ukraine is winning, describing domestic and institutional dynamics that prevent acknowledgment of losses and sustain continued war support. Regarding China’s and Russia’s roles, he says Iranian Foreign Minister Araki visited both Russia and China and claims Putin told him Russia is supportive of the Iranian people and views the US and Israel as aggressors. He says if Iran faces difficulties, Russia would reinforce Iran through the Caspian Sea and describes Russia’s response to GCC complaints about Iran. He contrasts China’s approach as neutral and mediation-focused, arguing China seeks peace and ceasefire so the world can return to global trade and that China refuses a clear stance. He also claims China might sign an agreement with the US to buy more LNG to compensate for lost Middle East LNG, especially Qatar. He describes negotiations between the US and Iran as having “three sticking points.” The uranium issue, he says, could allow compromise through allowing international inspectors while keeping uranium. The Strait of Hormuz control, he says, is core to Iranian security and not something Iran would give up. The third sticking point is Lebanon and the requirement that any peace treaty with the US also applies to Lebanon, including Israeli withdrawal from Lebanon. He argues that Israel’s offensive in Lebanon makes lasting peace unlikely and suggests any settlement with Iran would be tentative and could resume within “at most six months.” He argues the US cannot retreat from the Iran war because US financing needs depend on the world continuing to buy US Treasuries and because continuous bombardment is limited by depleted munitions stocks after earlier sustained airstrikes. He states that to “fight this war effectively” the US would need ground troops, which he says would require a national draft and also a chain of events to justify the invasion, including a need for “justification” to rally Americans and create broader economic chaos that would make the invasion acceptable. On Israel’s “Greater Israel” project, he argues that Lebanon is part of the project and that even if the US and Iran reach tentative terms, Israel’s long-term objective would continue, preventing permanent peace. He also claims the Zionist lobby has significant political sway in the US and cites campaign spending aimed at defeating a Republican congressman to warn others. He further argues that conflict models in Europe and Asia are tied to a broader US grand strategy: shifting global conflict to sustain debt and delay economic constraints. He says the US would aim to retreat geographically while still financing and arming partners to prolong wars. For East Asia, he claims the US might allow Japan and South Korea to handle more while American forces and allied structures support containment dynamics. Finally, he argues that Taiwan’s status quo is not sustainable and points to a “grand bargain” after Trump’s China visit. He says Western reporting frames the visit as unproductive, while Chinese media and experts view it as a breakthrough that could end the trade war. He claims the bargain could involve US access to China’s financial market and China opposing Taiwan independence, with the US pausing or blocking a weapons shipment to Taiwan and considering onshoring semiconductors. He states he expects Taiwan to be a future flashpoint only near-term at minimum and argues the next major flashpoint could be North Korea rather than Taiwan. He closes by describing a Western “legitimacy crisis,” attributing it to demographic crisis, financialization, and moral decay, and arguing it will lead to a decline of Western society. He also argues immigration debates are framed as purely pro-immigrant versus racist, while culture and cultural cohesion are not addressed.

The discussion centers on an “escalation trap” involving multiple fronts of escalation—direct and proxy—between the United States, Israel, Iran-backed groups, and Gulf-backed militias. Mario highlights escalations on the Lebanese, Syrian, and Iraqi fronts, with particular concern about the Yemeni front: in recent days, Saudi- and Emirati-backed militias have been building up and amassing, possibly for a renewed offensive against the Houthis. Mario links these developments to the Red Sea and choke points. He argues the Yemeni theatre matters because the Red Sea is increasingly important as an alternative to the Strait of Hormuz if conflict resumes. For those alternatives to work, he says Iran’s “stranglehold” over the Bab al-Mandeb Strait—through the Houthis—must be removed. He describes the possibility that clashes between Iran, the U.S., and Israel could temporarily shift into proxy fronts across multiple regions. David/“Professor Pape” modeling and incentives are emphasized by the second speaker. He agrees that Iraq’s recent crackdown on militias may be connected to Syria, Hezbollah, and pressure on militia behavior. He then expands the “big picture” to a sphere-of-influence competition over “the four corners of the MOU,” arguing there is a fundamental disagreement about regional power: the United States wants to remain preeminent; Israel wants to undermine the MOU; and Iran wants to stick with the MOU’s “four corners” as a roadmap to regional power. He frames Iran’s actions as consolidation rather than starting from scratch, noting proxies and relationships that predate the current crisis. He describes Iran’s IRGC messaging about an “access resistance belt” stretching from Lebanon through the Mediterranean and the Red Sea/Yemen and circling back toward the Gulf, which he says would encircle Iraq as well. He argues this sphere of influence is tied to Hormuz and the pathways to bypass it, connecting Lebanon, Syria, Iraq, and Yemen. A key focus becomes Hormuz arrangements in the context of an escalation around MOU Article 5. The second speaker explains that Iran is attempting to maintain Iran’s lead partner role (“Iran is going to be in charge of the arrangements with Oman”) and enforce Article 5’s threshold by exercising coercive leverage to prevent the U.S. from using “salami slicing” to whittle down the threshold. He describes the timing of fees as starting “after 60 days,” referencing an approaching “day 61,” and says Iran is coercively constraining shipping to force acceptance of fees. He cites an expected fee structure described as “something like $2 million a tanker,” equating to large daily and annual amounts, and he says Iran’s aim is to secure those fees and block exits. The discussion also covers the Strait of Hormuz clashes. The second speaker explains that Iran seeks to assert control by striking ships going on the Oman side, while the U.S. responds to make that unacceptable; clashes continue with another escalation after attempted talks. Qatar talks are mentioned, along with a report that Oman, Iran, and Oman have a plan to charge a fee and manage the Strait together, which the U.S. does not like. Regarding Qatar/Doha outcomes, he expects either little or temporary results and argues ceasefires are defunct in practical terms, with pauses between violence rather than linear outcomes. He attributes part of public messaging dynamics to market timing and political incentives to “lash back,” while insisting Iran’s coercive strategy follows realism-based incentives and periodic enforcement rather than continuous daily strikes. When asked what surprised him most, he says the stage-by-stage modeling has matched real events closely, outlining prior stages: bombing Fordow, then a feared move toward regime-change bombing out of nuclear material paranoia, leading to further lashing back and escalation or acceptance of Iran as a fourth center of power. He predicts the current “middle game” could last through at least January, while also noting U.S. posture changes—despite earlier expectations of pullbacks—are consistent with his modeled logic. On the likelihood of resumption of full conflict after midterms, he says a major war is plausible, citing two drivers: fuel/price impacts creating anger domestically and momentum for political narratives blaming Iran; and concern about potential Iranian nuclear weapons testing following regime-change-style pressures. He also discusses strategic ambiguity about keeping U.S. Marines and argues the forces could serve as backup in case of Iranian testing. The second speaker also addresses Israel as a “wild card” and describes internal Israeli pressures: public trauma after October 7, political direction toward full-bore action against Lebanon, and a strategic logic that Hezbollah-style drone threats could extend to Israeli trade corridors, particularly ports like Haifa. He describes Israel’s trade dependence as a strategic constraint that could make Hezbollah’s threat more severe in practice. In conclusion, he expects Iran to enforce the “four corners” of the MOU, likely initiating force in the coming weeks to do so, while the U.S. grows more inclined to respond more forcefully, increasing pressure on Saudi Arabia. He points to reported Pakistani troop and jet details in Saudi Arabia as a sign Gulf states may seek alternative approaches with Iran beyond retaliatory bombing. He emphasizes that Doha talks may occur but won’t predict the immediate reality, which he says will be driven by actions and security incentives rather than negotiations alone.

In this discussion, Zhang Shuay Shin and Speaker 1 analyze the evolving U.S.-Iran confrontation through the lens of global power dynamics, the petrodollar, and the shifting balance among major powers. - The war is framed as primarily about preserving the petrodollar. Speaker 1 argues the United States, burdened by enormous debt, seeks to maintain the dollar’s dominance by controlling energy trade through naval power and strategic choke points. The belief is that the U.S. can weaponize the dollar against rivals, as seen when it froze Russian assets and then moved to stabilize oil markets. BRICS and others are moving toward alternatives, including a gold corridor, challenging the petrodollar’s centrality. The aim is to keep Europe and East Asia dependent on U.S. energy, reinforcing American hegemony, even as historical hubris risks a global backlash turning growing powers against Washington. - The sequence of escalation over six weeks is outlined: after the American attack on Tehran and the Iranian move to close the Strait of Hormuz, the U.S. eased sanctions on Russian and Iranian oil to maintain global stability, according to Treasury statements. Escalations targeted civilian infrastructure and strategic chokepoints, with discussions of striking GCC energy infrastructure and desalination plants. A U.S. threat to “bomb Iran back to the stone age” was countered by Iran proposing a ten-point framework—encompassing uranium enrichment rights, lifting sanctions, and security guarantees for Iran and its proxies. The Americans reportedly suggested the framework was workable, but negotiations in Islamabad stalled when U.S. officials did not engage seriously. - The broader objective is posited as not simply a tactical war but a strategic move to ensure U.S. imperial supremacy by shaping energy flows. Speaker 1 speculates Trump’s motive centers on keeping the petrodollar intact, potentially forcing China and other partners to buy energy with dollars. Iran’s willingness to negotiate in Islamabad is linked to pressure from China amid China’s economic strains, particularly as energy needs and Belt and Road investments create vulnerabilities for China if Middle East energy becomes unreliable. - The proposed naval blockade is discussed as difficult to implement directly against Iran due to ballistic missiles; instead, the plan may aim to choke off alternative routes like the Strait of Malacca, leveraging trusted regional partners and allies. Iran could respond via the Red Sea (Bab al-Mandab) or other leverage, including the Houthis, challenging Western control of energy corridors. The overarching aim would be to force a global energy reorientation toward North America, though it risks long-term hostility toward the United States. - The roles of great powers are analyzed: the U.S. strategy is described as exploiting Middle East disruption to preserve the petrodollar, with short-term gains but long-term risks of a broader alliance against U.S. hegemony. Europe and Asia are pressured to adapt, with China’s energy needs especially salient as sanctions tighten Middle East supply. Russia is identified as the principal challenger to U.S. maritime hegemony, while China remains economically entangled, facing strategic incentives to cooperate with the United States if required by economic pressures. - The dialogue considers NATO and Europe, arguing that the real contest is between globalists and nationalists in the United States, with Trump viewed as an agent of empire who may threaten the existing globalist framework. The speakers discuss whether this competition will redefine alliances, the future of NATO, and the possibility that a more Eurasian-led order could emerge if Western powers fail to maintain their maritime advantages. - Finally, Russia’s role is emphasized: Moscow is seen as the key counterweight capable of challenging American maritime dominance, with the war in Iran serving, in part, to counter Russian actions in Ukraine and to incentivize alignment with Russia, China, and Iran against U.S. leadership over the next two decades.

The speaker argues that Iran studied the wars of the last two decades and concluded that you can win by not losing. To preserve leadership, Iran has kept a core leadership alive, and the leadership has been strengthened by the strikes faced. There is a belief that there is currently a lot of support inside Iran for the regime, more than a few months ago when support appeared weaker. The speaker notes Iran’s impressive capability to manufacture and disperse ballistic missiles and drones. They point to the Strait of Hormuz as a narrow chokepoint that Iran can exploit by intermittently deploying drones, ballistic missiles, and mines to disrupt world energy flows. Iran is using this leverage while allowing oil to move through the Straits, and they are leveraging relations with China and other world powers to keep oil flows open, suggesting a strategic use of economic diplomacy. The claim is that Iran is deliberately signaling that oil can pass through but that the regime is willing to complicate that flow when it serves their aims. Politically, Iran is portrayed as knowing that a protracted war would not be popular globally, so they have found a steady-state: they can continue striking targets in the Middle East and make life uncomfortable for GCC countries. This ongoing pressure is seen as something they can sustain while external support for them remains, though the speaker expects that support to erode over time. The speaker also highlights a fissure in relations with Saudi Arabia, describing growing fractures that complicate the ability of the United States to project power against Iran. Saudi Arabia’s cooperation is deemed key for countering Iran, and the rifts undermine that dynamic. Overall, the speaker concludes that, from their perspective, there are few downsides for Iran in continuing the war. They believe Iran can maintain their efforts with minimal exertion and continue the conflict far longer than the United States and its allies can sustain, thereby preserving and potentially strengthening Iran’s position over an extended period.

The speaker says the war with Iran is “back on” after renewed bombings. They claim the sequence began when the U.S. was trying to guide tankers and ships through the southern portion of the Strait of Hormuz, an area Iran “doesn’t want ships to use” near the Omani shoreline. The speaker states Iran has asserted control over traffic through the Strait of Hormuz and has granted safe passage through a “Northern Channel” closer to the Iranian border. They say this relates to Iran’s territorial waters out to about 11 nautical miles from shore, and that the U.S. preferred not to use the northern route because it would require paying fees to Iran. The speaker claims that as three to five tankers sailed through the southern portion, the IRGC warned them to turn around and stop, but they did not, and the ships were “struck by drones,” with some “set on fire” and “kinetically attacked.” The speaker then says the United States bombed Iran in response, citing CENTCOM, which they state reported striking 80 targets. They say CENTCOM stated U.S. forces struck Iranian air defense systems and coastal radar sites, anti-ship missile capabilities, and small boats. The speaker questions the presence of small boats, referencing a claim that Iran’s Navy had already been destroyed. Next, the speaker says Iran has begun retaliatory strikes against U.S. forces, firing anti-ship cruise missiles and drones at U.S. Navy warships in the Sea of Oman. The speaker adds that Iran is asserting it will “assert control over the Strait of Hormuz.” They cite Professor Robert Pape (University of Chicago) saying: “trump is playing with nationalist fire by striking civilian targets in iran with millions demanding revenge at the supreme leader's funeral,” and also: “Trump just handed the regime a clear trigger for major retaliation. The entire world economy is now at risk.” The speaker also references political commentary from Marjorie Taylor Greene about “bombing Iran during the ceasefire” and says the war is “not a war.” They further mention Pete Hegseth (as referenced by the speaker), and that Marco Rubio is described as saying the U.S. would not allow Iran to control the Strait of Hormuz or charge a toll. The speaker turns to energy markets, stating that oil is spiking again and that a supply shock they have warned about will “kick in in a very harsh manner,” leading to “motor oil shortages,” “diesel shortages,” and higher prices for gasoline, diesel, and “jet fuel” by less than one month, accelerating into September and October. They link the worsening energy situation to escalation in conflicts and to attacks on infrastructure, claiming Ukrainian drone attacks hit multiple Russian oil tankers. They also claim that oil refining and refined product output are suffering “both out of Russia and also out of… the Middle East,” and that this is “engineered” to create a global energy crisis. They say the Strategic Petroleum Reserve is at its lowest level since the 1980s. They also claim the U.S. revoked a sanctions waiver/license that allowed Iran to sell oil through roughly the end of August, stating: “the MOU is dead,” and that Iran’s oil will not contribute to Western supply because sanctions are back on. The speaker predicts additional choke-point escalation, asserting “closure of the Bab el-Mandeb Strait” could come next. They also mention Iran ballistic missiles striking U.S. military bases in Bahrain “apparently,” and conclude that fuel costs, food prices, fertilizer impacts, and supply-chain problems will intensify. They say fertilizer shortages for the fall planting season will lead to “increased famine in 2027,” and that “many items” could become unaffordable in the U.S. Finally, they predict U.S. economic and geopolitical consequences, including spillover into U.S. treasury markets if Japan sells treasuries to buy oil or gas, and they claim this could lead to a U.S. invasion of Iran. They state the IRGC says the U.S. will not be allowed to interfere in the Strait of Hormuz and argue that Iran will hold control until the West cannot handle energy “strangulation.”

The discussion centers on the scope and pattern of U.S.-led attacks during the day and how Iran may retaliate and sustain pressure. Speaker 0 says he is not tracking events “blow by blow” but indicates strikes were directed toward targets along the coastline rather than a nuclear power facility, and that Bashir was hit. Speaker 1 adds that the attacks struck the coastline with more significance than yesterday and references Axios reporting that a railway near the Turkmenistan border—connected to China’s Belt and Road—was struck. Speaker 1 says the initial impression was sabotage, but then reported that the U.S. struck it, which surprised Speaker 1. Speaker 0 frames the attacks as “finishing the job,” arguing the president is targeting Iran’s entire energy profile—production and, crucially, transportation. Speaker 0 specifically says the strikes are aimed at collapsing Iran’s ability not only to produce energy but to move it, citing Karg and saying additional attacks against Karg are likely. The Belt and Road Railway is described as keeping Iran’s energy production viable during the war by enabling shipment out, and Speaker 0 says the goal is to remove that capability. Speaker 0 then states: “Now Iran is retaliating.” Speaker 1 discusses reported air-defense and early-warning activity in Gulf locations: air defenses in Kuwait and Bahrain, and early warning alerts reportedly sent in Qatar, followed by “all clear.” Speaker 1 notes speculation that the UAE might be targeted but says there were no alerts or reports of anything in the UAE, and that explosions were heard in Kuwait and Bahrain. Speaker 0 says Qatar is “on the menu,” but not yet confirmed as a strike target. The speakers outline the U.S. target set as consistent with prior strikes since a ceasefire: targets from Bashir “all the way” down to Shabahar, Iran’s main port linking to the sea, and Abu Musa. Speaker 0 adds that beyond degrading Iran’s ability to control the Strait of Homs/coastline, the attacks also degrade Iran’s ability to defend the strait, and he worries this could be a prelude to attempts at landing. He emphasizes that the U.S. is methodically hitting what it can see, while “a boatload of stuff” cannot be seen, and he asks how Iran will retaliate both immediately and long-term, including what weapons and quantities Iran still holds in reserve. A major theme is whether the escalation pattern will broaden to additional Gulf countries. Speaker 1 asks why Iran is not responding “in kind” every time the U.S. escalates. Speaker 0 argues Iran does not have to escalate further because time is an advantage for Iran and a disadvantage for the U.S., describing the U.S. as operating on a countdown tied to oil reserves. Speaker 0 also argues Trump’s “escalate to de-escalate” approach is unstable: “a pause is not a de-escalation,” and he says the situation is continuing rather than genuinely de-escalating. The exchange turns to prior actions involving “Project Freedom.” Speaker 1 claims Trump has previously de-escalated when Iran retaliated (including the Fujairah response), while Speaker 0 disputes that those were true de-escalations, attributing outcomes to external constraints such as Saudi refusal to allow use of bases and the resulting “gap.” Speaker 0 characterizes the overall U.S. approach as being “dictated to by events” rather than controlled. Speaker 1 and Speaker 0 discuss the operational picture regarding shipping. Speaker 1 says the Strait is not closed, with discussion around “30, 40” ships and claims that Iranian-side waters are still open enough for ships to pass using Iranian traffic separation. Speaker 0 responds that the dispute is tied to Iran’s traffic separation scheme and claims U.S. efforts aim to prevent use of that scheme. Towards the end, Speaker 1 says there are multiple waves of explosions ongoing from Iran, with many interceptions and likely impacts expected near the Fifth Fleet headquarters. Speaker 0 shifts to a broader strategic argument: the Iranians allegedly do not need to do much beyond sustaining blockade-like conditions, because forcing the strait’s flow below pre-war levels is what matters. Speaker 0 argues Iran is playing an economic/survival game and that the regime’s metric is to remain in power, even while sustaining damage. Speaker 1 suggests Iran should retaliate more aggressively, but Speaker 1 and Speaker 0 both emphasize that symbolic strikes may not deter U.S. defense efforts. The speakers repeatedly suggest the key question is whether Iran believes a “red line” has been crossed, especially if the U.S. strikes Iranian energy infrastructure and transportation routes like the railway. Speaker 0 says Qatar is still “technically” on the menu but has not been struck yet, which he interprets as evidence Iran does not yet view current actions as crossing that red line. They conclude with continued concern about escalation and uncertainty about any practical off-ramp, while noting the attacks are continuing with patterns that resemble prior targeting rather than ending the memorandum.

John Mearsheimer and Glenn discuss the trajectory of the United States’ foreign policy under Donald Trump, focusing on the shift from an anticipated pivot to Asia and a reduction of “forever wars” to the current Iran confrontation and its global implications. - Initial optimism about Trump: Glenn notes a widespread belief that Trump could break with established narratives, recognize the post–Cold War power distribution, pivot to the Western Hemisphere and East Asia, end the “forever wars,” and move away from Europe and the Middle East. Mearsheimer agrees there was early optimism on Judging Freedom that Trump would reduce militarized policy and possibly shut down the Ukraine–Russia war, unlike other presidents. - Drift into Iran and the current quagmire: The conversation then centers on how Trump’s approach to Iran evolved. Mearsheimer argues Trump often vacillates between claims of victory and deep desperation, and he characterizes Trump’s current stance as demanding “unconditional surrender” from Iran, with a 15-point plan that looks like capitulation. He describes Trump as sometimes declaring a “great victory” and other times recognizing the need for an exit strategy but being unable to find one. - The escalation ladder and strategic danger: A core point is that the United States and its allies initially sought a quick, decisive victory using shock and awe to topple the regime, but the effort has become a protracted war in which Iran holds many cards. Iran can threaten the global economy and Gulf state stability, undermine oil infrastructure, and harm Israel. The lack of a credible exit ramp for Trump, combined with the risk of escalation, creates catastrophic potential for the world economy and energy security. - Economic and strategic leverage for Iran: The discussion emphasizes that Iran can disrupt global markets via the Strait of Hormuz, potentially shut down the Red Sea with Houthis participation, and target Gulf desalination and energy infrastructure. The U.S. should maintain oil flow to avoid devastating economic consequences; sanctions on Iran and Russia were strategically relaxed to keep oil moving. The longer the war drags on, the more leverage Iran gains, especially as Trump’s options to harm Iran’s energy sector shrink due to the global economy’s needs. - Exit possibilities and the limits of escalation: Glenn asks how Trump might avoid the iceberg of economic catastrophe. Mearsheimer contends that a deal on Iran’s terms would entail acknowledging Iranian victory and a humiliating US defeat, which is politically challenging—especially given Israeli opposition and the lobby. The Iranians have incentive to string out negotiations, knowing they could extract concessions as time passes and as U.S. desperation grows. - Ground forces and military options: The possibility of a U.S. ground invasion is deemed impractical. Mearsheimer highlights that Desert Storm and the 2003 invasion involved hundreds of thousands of troops; proposed plans for “a few thousand” light infantry would be unable to secure strategic objectives or prevent Iranian counterattacks across the Gulf, Red Sea, and Persian Gulf, with Iran capable of inflicting significant damage on bases and ships. The discussion stresses that even small-scale operations could provoke heavy Iranian defense and strategic backlash. - European and NATO dynamics: The Europeans are portrayed as reluctant to sign onto a risky campaign in support of U.S. objectives, and the episode warns that a broader economic crisis could alter European alignment. The potential breaching of NATO unity and the risk of diminished transatlantic trust are underscored, with Trump’s stance framed as blaming Europeans for strategic failures. - Israel and the lobby: The influence of the Israel lobby and its potential consequences if the war deteriorates are discussed. Mearsheimer notes the danger of rising antisemitism if the war goes catastrophically wrong and Israel’s role in pressuring continued conflict. He also observes that a future shift in U.S. strategy could, in extreme circumstances, diverge from traditional Israeli priorities if the global economy is at stake. - Deep state and decision-making: The final exchange centers on the role of expertise and institutions. Mearsheimer argues that Trump’s distrust of the deep state and reliance on a small circle (Kushner, Whitkoff, Lindsey Graham, media figures) deprived him of necessary strategic deliberation. He contends that a robust deep-state apparatus provides essential expertise for complex wars, offering a counterpoint to Trump’s preferred approach. He contends the deep state was not fully consulted, and that reliance on a limited network contributed to the strategic miscalculations. - Concluding tone: Both acknowledge the grave, uncertain state of affairs and the high risk of escalation and miscalculation. They express a desire for an optimistic resolution but emphasize that the current trajectory is precarious, with signs pointing toward a dangerous escalation that could have wide-ranging geopolitical and economic consequences. They close with a note of concern about the potential for rash actions and the importance of considering responsible exits and credible diplomatic channels.

Speaker 0 argues that control over the strait is more powerful than any nuclear weapon, noting that control is clearly in Iran’s hands, with additional mining of the southern portion forcing ships to sail right next to Iran’s total control. They criticize MAGA/Trump supporters for claiming Iran must open it immediately, saying, “you can say all the words you want, but Iran still controls the strait. And that means they control the backbone of the energy of planet earth, period.” Speaker 1 responds that Trump is desperate for a solution because the situation is humiliating the United States. They recount the U.S. posture since the Carter era, referencing the Carter Doctrine: to secure the energy-producing region in exchange for security guarantees, ensuring the Strait of Hormuz remains open. They remind that in 1987, during Operation Earnest Will, the U.S. Navy reflagged the Kuwaiti tanker fleet and escorted it through the Strait of Hormuz to protect it from Iraq and Iran. They say the Iranians watched and learned, and have since developed the capabilities to shut the strait down, and that the U.S. cannot keep it open—our navy, air force, and lack of sufficient ground power can’t do it. Therefore, Iran “own this. It is theirs, and they have declared it is ours.” Speaker 1 warns that if Iran continues to shut the strait, it will cause permanent damage, including permanent economic damage globally, with Europe facing an energy crisis it won’t recover from and Asia facing serious economic harm, including China. They note that China has intervened and pressured Iran to come to the table because a significant portion of China’s energy comes from the Middle East and from countries unable to ship oil due to the closure. They conclude that China told the Iranians they must sit down and talk with the Americans, and that Iran didn’t want to come to the table because they are “winning this war,” asserting, “they’re like, keep bombing us. We don’t care. You’re not destroying us. You’re not breaking our will. We’re destroying you. We’re humiliating you.” The Iranians, according to Speaker 1, were told by the Chinese to flow oil again and to begin talks, prompting Iran to sit down with the Americans.

The discussion centers on the Strait of Hormuz, potential global repercussions, and how investors are reading the shifting geopolitical and technological landscape. - The Strait of Hormuz is portrayed as a critical chokepoint with the potential for devastating global economic reverberations. The hosts question whether the strait will stay closed and warn it could push the world toward a global recession if blocked for an extended period. A peace delegation has arrived in Pakistan to negotiate, with JD Vance, Jared Kushner, and Steve Witkoff among those involved, but officials warn bombing could resume within 24 hours if no plan is reached. - Israel reportedly views Iran’s new leadership as more dangerous and is accused of continuing military actions in Lebanon and civilian attacks, undermining hopes for peace. President Trump issued statements criticizing Iran’s restrictions on shipping through Hormuz, while a graph shows Hormuz traffic collapsing to about 10% of normal. Kevin Hassett, the White House adviser, suggested the strait could reopen in two months, a claim met with skepticism. - Trump and White House spokespeople are characterized as projecting an immediate and complete reopening of the strait, with others labeling that view as unrealistic. Trump said results of talks with Iran would be known in about 24 hours, while describing a “reset” and signaling a pause in Operation Epic Fury before a potential relaunch with harsher consequences. Iran is described as seemingly buying into the pause, with ships refueling and ammunition flowing into the Middle East. - Marc Rutte (Netherlands) is cited as stating NATO will assist in securing the strait and ensuring safe passage, prompting questions about the logistical capabilities of NATO and the weapons available to support such an operation, raising concerns about the feasibility of a NATO-backed effort. - On the investment side, the guest, Mark Wilburn, president of Neo’s Capital and author of Understanding the Matthew Effect, emphasizes that a two-month Hormuz closure could trigger a global recession and inflation spikes, while any constructive peace talks could spur market upside. He notes a current bias toward cash and a bearish tilt given geopolitical tensions and the AI/tech disruption cycle. - The discussion covers “expanded tech,” including Anthropic’s Claude and its potential to replace traditional SaaS functions, leading to capital leaving expanded tech from Intuit, Adobe, ServiceNow, Cadence Designs, and others, and moving into consumer goods, industrials, and utilities. Claude is described as capable of creating agents that could replace standard software solutions, with anecdotes about AI-enabled businesses reaching high valuations and single-person ventures achieving substantial scale. - The AI revolution raises questions about job displacement, surveillance, and the potential societal transformation, with concerns about a transition to a more monitored, possibly socialist framework if governments fund broad programs. - The housing market and energy strategy are discussed in the U.S. context. The president’s policies are scrutinized, with speculation that he might emphasize energy dominance to influence global oil dynamics, including Venezuela, Iran, and Saudi Arabia. The potential impact of higher oil prices on inflation and recession risks is highlighted. - On manufacturing and the dollar, there is debate about a Trump-era push to bring制造 back to the U.S., the costs of domestic production, and whether firms will relocate supply chains despite higher costs, versus continuing offshore production for cheaper inputs. The Nord Stream pipeline destruction and Europe’s LNG shift are cited as context for U.S. energy strategy. - Mark’s current trading posture is largely cash-based due to the conflict, with a plan to deploy capital if peace talks progress, particularly in tech equities like Amazon. He emphasizes avoiding chasing trades and using inverse ETFs to profit from potential declines. He points to a “transition” phase in many big tech names and suggests opportunities in semiconductor and other meme sectors. - The two free live training sessions hosted by Mark are scheduled for April 16 at 6 PM ET and April 18 at 4 PM ET, with a landing page at redactedtrading.com. Attendees will learn chart-reading skills, risk management, and portfolio positioning to navigate potential market volatility. - Final notes stress staying educated and prepared for both optimistic outcomes and downturns, with the overarching message that financial education is essential for protecting assets and making informed decisions amid geopolitical and technological upheaval.

The Strait of Hormuz is a narrow 33-kilometer passage between Iran, Oman, and the UAE through which nearly 20% of the world’s oil flows, amounting to about 17,000,000 barrels per day. The oil originates from eight Persian Gulf countries—Iran, Iraq, Kuwait, Bahrain, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE. A large portion of global oil exports depends on this chokepoint: 90% of oil exports from Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, and Qatar pass through Hormuz to reach other markets. If Iran blocks the strait, the following countries would be among the most affected. India, which imports 85% of its oil and sources 60% of that from Middle Eastern producers such as Iraq, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, and the UAE, would face sharply rising fuel prices and widespread disruption across oil-dependent industries, risking job losses and economic strain. China, the world’s largest oil importer at about 10 million barrels per day, would feel a major impact because 40% of its oil imports transit Hormuz; despite pipelines to Russia and Central Asia, those lines do not meet the full energy needs, so China’s economy could suffer, with global ripple effects if its growth slows. Japan would also be heavily affected, as it imports 90% of its oil, with 75% of that passing through Hormuz. Saudi Arabia, already heavily reliant on exporting through Hormuz (80–90% of its oil goes to global markets via the strait, with only about 10% reaching Europe via the Red Sea coast), would face severe revenue and economic strain; there is also a possibility of increased military action to reopen the route. Pakistan would be impacted as well, receiving about 90% of its oil through Hormuz, meeting roughly 27% of its energy needs; some diesel is reportedly imported unofficially from Iran (about 35% via border relations), suggesting Pakistan might seek oil from Iran under quiet or official terms if Hormuz is blocked. The UAE would feel a significant impact too, with around 72% of its oil exports relying on Hormuz; although it has the Habshan–Fujairah pipeline to bypass the strait and export up to 60% of its oil, losing the remaining 40% would still be serious for its economy. European nations like France, Germany, and Italy would also be affected, receiving about 10% of their oil through Hormuz. Globally, experts warn that oil prices could surge to over $150 per barrel, triggering broad inflation and a potential global recession. In sum, the Strait of Hormuz, despite its small physical size, wields outsized influence over energy security and world markets.

Mario and the Professor discuss the scale and spread of the current oil and energy shock and its broad economic and geopolitical ripple effects. - Severity and scope: The Professor calls the crisis “pretty catastrophic,” possibly the biggest oil crisis experienced, potentially surpassing the 1970s shocks. He notes a gap between Washington rhetoric and underlying economic reality and emphasizes the war’s effects beyond oil, including fertilizer and helium, all of which pass through the Strait of Hormuz or related chokepoints. - U.S. economic backdrop (before the war): The Professor provides a pre-war table: - U.S. GDP growth in 2024 was 2.3%, 2025 about the same after a dip in 2024 to 2.2%. - Jobs: 2024 added 2.2 million; 2025 added 185,000, with tariffs contributing to a manufacturing job loss of 108,000. - Productivity declined from 3% to 2.1% in 2025. - He argues the U.S. economy was already slowing and that the war exacerbates existing weaknesses rather than creating a boom. - Immediate physical and downstream effects: - The closure of the Strait of Hormuz affects more than oil: up to 20% of world oil, a third of fertilizer, and helium used in chip manufacturing (notably in Taiwan) pass through the strait. - The closure’s ripple effects include fertilizer shortages and higher prices (fertilizer up about 50%), and broader supply chain dislocations as related infrastructure and inventories (oil, fertilizers, helium) become depleted and must be rebuilt. - Relative impact by region: The U.S. is more insulated from physical shocks than many others, but financial markets (stocks and bonds) are hit, with higher interest rates and a rising 10- and 30-year bond yield. Europe and Asia face larger direct physical disruptions; India, Taiwan, and others bear notable hits due to fertilizer and helium supply constraints. - Global energy and political dynamics: - The U.S. remains a net importer of oil, though it is a net exporter of petroleum products; fertilizer reliance and pricing reflect broader global constraints. - The professor highlights the political costs: protectionism (tariffs), militarism (increased defense spending and involvement), and interventionism (policy actions). He notes polling is negative on these directions, suggesting policy headwinds for the administration. - The escalation and motivations for war: - A theory discussed is that the war was driven by a belief in decapitating Iran’s leadership to force regime change, a strategy the professor says many experts have warned against. He cites New York Times reporting that Mossad and Netanyahu supported decapitation, but that former Mossad leadership and U.S. intelligence warned it would not work; the escalation suggests a divergence between theory and outcome. - He acknowledges another view that controlling Hormuz could economically benefit the U.S., but ranks it as a lesser driver than regime-change objectives. - Possible outcomes and scenarios: - If the Houthis control the Red Sea and the Strait of Hormuz remains closed, and the Beber/Mendeb is blocked, the consequences would intensify; the professor describes a “freeway turned into a toll road” scenario in Hormuz and greater disruption in the Gulf, including potential attacks on desalination plants. - The economic signaling would likely worsen: downward revisions to growth, higher import prices, and increased financial market strain; a prolonged closure would intensify these effects. - The escalation ladder and endgame: - The professor warns that escalating with boots on the ground would favor Iran and could trigger widespread disruption of Gulf infrastructure, desalination, and regional stability. He suggests Russia would be a clear beneficiary in such a scenario. - He concludes with a stark warning: if Hormuz and the Beber/Mendeb remain closed, and desalination and critical infrastructure are attacked, the situation could resemble or exceed the scale of the 2008 financial crisis—“look like a birthday party” compared with what could unfold. - Overall takeaway: The crisis is multi-faceted, with immediate physical shortages (oil, fertilizer, helium) and cascading financial and political costs. The duration and depth depend on how long chokepoints stay closed and whether escalation occurs, with the potential for severe global economic and geopolitical consequences.

First speaker: Iran doesn’t really need to attack American ships or force the strait to open because it could actually be advantageous for the strait to remain closed. There are floating oil reserves and cargo ships in the Indian Ocean and Arabian Sea that Iran could rely on. In fact, Iran has a substantial stockpile: 160,000,000 barrels of Iranian crude already floating at sea, outside the Persian Gulf, past the Strait of Hormuz into the Arabian Sea and the Indian Ocean. That amount could fuel a country like Germany for over two months, and most of it is headed to Chinese independent refiners. Exports remain high, and the blockade is real, even if the timing is late. Do you agree that Iran is prepped for this day? Second speaker: I do agree. I think this is not harming the Iranians as much as it is harming the United States and the rest of the world. First speaker: What is Trump’s thought process? He has spoken with secretary Besant and other advisers, so he’s already sought advice. What alternative could work in Trump’s favor? Second speaker: Whenever the first round of negotiations ended, the president believed that his style of brinksmanship would produce immediate capitulation and agreement by the Iranians. The Iranians have never negotiated like that. Even the first treaty in the late 2000s took a long time to negotiate, not one and done. This administration wants short-term gains, and that isn’t possible with the Iranians. In the short term, the Iranians are in the driver’s seat. Negotiating and diplomacy are very difficult work; you don’t bully your way through. There is no unconditional surrender. There is none of that except in the president’s mind, unfortunately.

Speaker 0: Nearly two weeks into this conflict, the official story is cracking, and the number of Americans wounded is slowly coming out. Yesterday, we reported based on our sources that the number of American wounded was at least one hundred and thirty seven. After our report ran, the Pentagon has now publicly acknowledged about one hundred and forty wounded. That confirms our sources on this. So why did it take a little news show like ours to report this information? Why wasn't Fox News reporting this information? The Pentagon I know it's really weird. Why is the mainstream media silent on this? The Pentagon finally comes out and actually admits to this. Speaker 1: Reuters comes out and reports this. Exclusive. As many as one hundred and fifty US troops wounded so far in Iran war. They just published this today, this morning. March 10. That's remarkable. Exclusive. Just curious how that's an exclusive when we reported it yesterday. Yesterday. Whatever. Hey, Reuters. Bite me. Anyway, this war is clearly not winding down no matter what the messaging says. President Trump is saying the war could end very soon. But Iran says talks with The United States are off the table for now. Tehran is prepared to keep striking as long as it takes. And they're vowing an eye for an eye. So what is an eye for an eye actually mean? Does it mean you hey, you killed our leader. We kill yours? Does it mean, hey, you killed all these girls who were the daughters of members of the the Iranian Navy at a girls school, do we also do that to you? Like, what is actually does that look like? Speaker 0: Does it mean we took out your water infrastructures or you took out ours? So we do that. Right. Your gas infrastructure, civilian infrastructure, that's that's a war crime. But we did it. Your oil infrastructure, we do that. Like, what exactly does that look like? Meanwhile, the Strait Of Hormuz is getting worse by the minute. US intelligence tracking Iranian mine laying threats now as Gulf energy infrastructure there is taking a major hit with about 1,900,000 barrels per day of refining capacity across Bahrain, Iraq, Kuwait, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and The UAE. All down. CBS now says shipping through the Strait Of Hormuz has ground to a virtual halt. Nothing getting through. That's of just a few minutes ago. And Israel's hammering Beirut's southern suburbs and Lebanon. So they've essentially invaded Lebanon. Speaker 2: And then there's the neocon political class in Washington saying the quiet part out loud. Senator Lindsey Graham is now openly talking about, you know, going back to South Carolina to tell the sons and daughters in South Carolina, you know, you gotta send your loved ones to the Middle East. That's what I'm doing here in South Carolina. I gotta tell them to go fight in the Middle East, and he's calling on other Middle East countries that have been sitting on the fence that we've supported over the years as allies. Get off the fence. Go bomb Iran. Help out with Iran. And, oh, by the way, Spain, we're pissed off at you because you don't want us using your air bases or airspace to bomb Iran. Listen. Speaker 0: To our allies step up, get our air bases out of Spain. They're not reliable. Move all those airplanes to a country that would let us use them when we're threatened by a regime like Iran. To our friends in Spain, man, you have lost your way. I don't wanna do business with you anymore. I want our air bases our air bases out of Spain into a country that will let us use them. To our Arab friends, I've tried to help you construct a new Mideast. You need to up your game here. I can't go to South Carolina and say we're fighting and you won't publicly fight. What you're doing behind the scenes, that has to stop. The double dealing of the Arab world when it comes to this stuff needs to end. I go back to South Carolina. I'm asking them to send their sons and daughters over to the Mideast. What I want you to do in The Mideast to our friends in Saudi Arabia and other places, step forward and say this is my fight too. I join America. I'm publicly involved in bringing this regime down. If you don't, you're making a great mistake, and you're gonna cut off the ability to have a better relationship with The United States. I say this as a friend. Speaker 1: Ugh. He's an odious friend. Speaker 0: Say this as a friend. Speaker 3: With friends pick up a gun and go fight yourself, you coward. Yeah. I freaking hate that. But you're calling so, like, bluntly for somebody else to go die for his stupid cause. Speaker 0: Yeah. Speaker 1: I am so curious about this. I mean, he's a liar. But how many people in South Carolina are really walking up to him and saying, who are we gonna get to fight with us? Who are we gonna get to fight Iran? Worried about this. My son can go, but who's going with him? Let's make some war playdates. Who does that? Speaker 0: Larry Johnson is a former CIA analyst, NRA gun trainer, and, he's been looking at all of this and doing some incredible writing over at his website, Sonar twenty one. Larry, thank you for joining us. Great to see you back on the show. Speaker 4: Hi, guys. Good to see you. Speaker 0: So I wanna talk about the American war wounded first because Mhmm. I know that this is, near and dear to your heart and, of course, something that you've been watching, closely. And the lies, of course, that are coming out about this. Again, I spoke to sources over the past forty eight hours that were telling us here at Redacted about 137 Americans wounded. Then the Pentagon comes out and then confirms about a hundred and forty. So right pretty much right on the nose. And does that number sound low to you? Or does that sound about right? Speaker 4: That sounds a little low. So on March 4, let's go to Germany. Stuttgart, just North West of Germany, there is a hospital called Landstuhl Regional Medical Center. Landstuhl's primary mission is to handle American war wounded. On March 4, they issued a memo telling all the pregnant women that were about to give birth that, sorry, don't come here. We're not birthing any more babies. We gotta focus on our main mission. So that was the first clue that there was there were a lot of casualties inbound. I know, without mentioning his name, somebody who was involved dealing with the combat casualties during the wars in Afghanistan and Iraq, and he dealt with the personnel at Lunstul. And he called someone up and said, can't say anything, but there's a lot of casualties. Then 13 miles to the east of Landstuhl is an army base called Kaiserslautern. Kaiserslautern and the Stars and Stripes issued for that base had an appeal, a blood drive appeal. Hey. We need lots of people to show up and donate blood. So those that was on March 5. So I wrote about this March 6. So I wrote about this four days ago, that, yeah, we had a lot more casualties, and there are more coming, because Iran's not gonna stop. You know, right now, we're getting signals that the Trump administration is reaching out, trying, oh, hey, let's talk, let's talk cease fire. Iran's having none of it. They've been betrayed twice by Donald Trump and his group of clowns. Speaker 0: Right. Speaker 4: You know? And and so they're not ready to say no. No. They've got the world, by the testicles is the polite way of saying it, withholding the Strait Of Hormuz. They've shut down the movement of not only oil, liquid natural gas. They're the supplier of about 25%, 25 to 30% of the world's liquid natural gas, and, about 30%, 30 to 35% of the world's urea, which is used for fertilizer. Now, that may not I just learned that that may not be as important as I once thought it was because most of it comes out of Oman. Oman, you don't have to worry about things going through the Strait Of Hormuz. But on oil and liquid natural gas, huge. 94% of The Philippines depended upon the flow of gas, both liquid and the petroleum oil, out of the Persian Gulf. India, 80%. Japan, South Korea. So this is gonna have a major impact on certain economies in the world. Now there there I I I've said this ironically. I I think Vladimir Putin's sitting there going, maybe Donald Trump really does like me, because what he's done is he's making Russia rich again in a way I mean, they're getting, you know, they were selling they were forced to sell their oil previously under sanctions at, like, $55 a barrel. Now they're getting $88.90 dollars a barrel. Well, and they just opened it up to India. I mean, that story over the past forty eight hours, like, so they The United States has eased its restriction on Russian oil flowing to India. I mean, talk about an absolute disaster. Speaker 4: Well, yeah. And remember what had happened there is India was playing a double game too. You know, bricks India is the I in bricks, and Iran is the new I in bricks. And so what was India doing? Well, India was pretending to play along with The United States, but then going to Russia and saying, hey, Russia. Yeah. We'll buy we'll buy your oil, but we needed a discount because we're going against the sanctions, and we need to cover ourselves. So Russia said, okay. As a BRICS partner, we'll let you have for $55 barrel. So they got a discount. So now when all of a sudden the the the oil tap is turned off, including the liquid natural gas, India goes running back to Russia. Now remember, on, February 25-26, India was in Israel buttering up the rear end of BB, Net, and Yahoo, kissing rear end all they could. Oh, man. It was a love fest. We're partners with Israel. And then Israel attacks their BRICS partner. And what does India say? Nothing. Zero. They don't say a thing about the murdered girls. So now all of a sudden, the oil's turned off. It's nine days now with no oil coming out of there for India. They go running back to Russia. Hey, buddy. Let's let's get back together. And Russia says, sure. That's great. But it's gonna cost you $89 now a barrel. No more friends and family program. Gonna get market conditions. Speaker 0: We've had many journalist friends that have had their bank accounts shut down. We were literally in the middle of an interview with a great journalist from the gray zone who found out that his banking was just shut down. Literally, in the middle of an interview, he got a message that his banking was shut down. Well, Rumble Wallet prevents that, because Rumble can't even touch it. No one can touch it. Rumble Wallet lets you control your money, not a bank, not a government, not a tech company, not even Rumble can touch it. It's yours, only yours, yours to protect your future and your family. You can buy and save digital assets like Bitcoin, Tether Gold, and now the new USA USA app USAT, which is Tether's US regulated stablecoin all in one place. Tether Gold is real gold on the blockchain with ownership of physical gold bars, and USAT keeps your money steady against inflation. No banks needed. It's not only a wallet to buy and save, but it also allows you to support your favorite creators by easily tipping them if you want with the click of a button. There'll be no fees when you tip our channel or others, and we actually receive the tip instantly unlike other platforms where we have to wait for payouts. So support our show today and other creators by clicking the tip button on our Rumble channel. Speaker 1: Now I wanna ask you about president Trump responding to CBS News reports that there may be mines in the Strait Of Hormuz. That doesn't make a ton of sense. He says we have no indication that they did, but they better not. But they are picking and choosing who gets to go through, and their allies can go through. So why would they mine their allies? What do we make of this? Do we need to respond to this at all? Speaker 4: Yeah. I don't think they've done it yet. But let's recall the last time Iran mined the Persian Gulf. They didn't mine the Strait Of Hormuz. They mined farther up. It was 1987, 1988. Why did they do that? Well, in September 1980, when Jimmy Carter and Zbigniew Brzezinski were still in office, The United States encouraged a guy named Saddam Hussein, don't know if you've ever heard of him, but they encouraged Saddam Hussein to launch a war against Iran. And then Ronald Reagan comes in with Donald Rumsfeld and Cap Weinberger, and by 1983 had provided chemical weapons, or the precursors that Iraq needed to build chemical weapons, and Iraq started using chemical weapons against Iran in 1983 and continued to do it in '84, 85, 86. During that entire time, Iran never retaliated with chemical weapons. They were not going because they saw it as an act against God. They were serious about the religion. So 'eighty seven, 'eighty eight, they start dropping mines there in the Persian Gulf. Well, at that time, they didn't have all these missiles, so the United States Navy, a Navy SEAL, a good friend of mine, set up what was called the Hercules barge, and he had a Navy SEAL unit with him, and they fought off attacks by Iranian gunboats. He had some Little Bird helicopters from the one sixtieth, the special operations wing of the Air Force. And but we ended up disrupting the Iranian plan to mine The Gulf back then. Well, we couldn't do that today. We do not have that capability because Iran would blow us out of the water with drones and with missiles. You as we've seen, it's been happening over the last ten days. So United States would be in a real pickle. Speaker 1: And especially given the rhetoric of US war hawks in power for three decades. Like Yeah. Yes. They kind of had to prepare all of this time. Did we think that they weren't paying attention when we said it to the world? Speaker 4: Well, when we're writing our own press clippings and then reading them, there is a tendency to say, god, I am great. Can you see this? How good we are? And so they really believed that our air def the Patriot air defense systems and the THAAD systems would be they they could shut down the Iranian missiles and drones. And what they discovered was, nope. They didn't work. And they worked at an even lower level than the you know, Pentagon kept foul. We're shooting down 90%.

The speakers portray the United States as having shifted from an empire to a pirate state, with a transformation into what they call the petro gas dollar or LNG dollar. They claim the US has quietly carried out an armed robbery of the world’s oil and gas supply, hitting Russian tankers and refineries, crippling China’s oil supply, capturing major oil fields, and kidnapping or assassinating leaders, all while expanding its domination over global energy and finance. The analysis emphasizes that the US, now the world’s top producer and exporter of oil, gas, and LNG, operates with self-sufficiency but seeks to kill competition to maintain a monopoly. The claim is that the US used the Ukraine war as cover to eliminate rivals and then used the Iran war to finish off Qatar’s LNG position, forcing Europe to buy American LNG at ten times the price and turning Europe into a US energy client. As a result, European energy prices rise, euros lose value relative to the dollar, and BRICS and dedollarization efforts falter. A central strategic thread is the destruction of competing energy suppliers to create captive markets. The speakers allege that the US destroyed Nord Stream II and blew up pipelines, which not only hurt Russia but forced Europe to rely on American LNG. They argue that the US then redirected gas flows to the Gulf and Levant, sealing a role for Chevron and other US energy giants in these transactions. The Board of Peace is described as a front for a legal cover of Washington’s colonial plan, enabling energy seizures in Gaza, the Levantine Basin, and elsewhere, with Chevron’s activities framed as orchestrated groundwork for energy deals in the Levantine Basin, as well as in Venezuela and Lebanon. The narrative then claims the US intends to dominate China by cutting off its vital fuel sources, forcing China to buy American oil and gas, thereby preserving the dollar and hobbling BRICS and multipolarity. It details how the US targeted Venezuela’s oil, kidnapping Maduro and seizing oil, which previously supplied 80% of Venezuela’s oil exports to China, and how the US expanded its reach by threatening Cuba’s energy grid after Maduro’s removal. It asserts the US orchestrated a global oil blockade, with attacks on Russian energy hubs, ships, and refineries, to cripple Russia and China’s energy security, including attacks in the Caribbean, North Atlantic, Mediterranean, Black Sea, and Baltic Sea. The speakers describe Iran as being cut off from Hormuz and subjected to an escalating cycle of strikes that disrupt its toll system and port infrastructure, while Russia’s exports are disrupted by attacks on export hubs and ships, creating a 40% reduction in Russia’s seaborne oil export capacity. They claim the US is using this chaos to drive up LNG and oil prices, forcing Europe and Asia to bid on US gas while shipping dominance remains with Washington. The financial logic is that dedollarization efforts fail because the US can force energy trade to be settled in dollars, while the US economy benefits from wartime pricing and export profits. The “maritime extortion network” is described as a system where the US can move LNG on ships, changing routes as needed, and a “protection racket” via the US Navy is proposed as a price for safe passage. The monroe doctrine is reframed as moving the planet’s energy corridor into the Western Hemisphere, with the Gulf of Mexico and Washington as the key nodes, rather than the Middle East. Finally, the speakers assert that Iran’s drones, missiles, and air defenses have degraded the US air force’s bases and radar arrays, while the USS Gerald R. Ford was compelled to relocate, reinforcing the claim that Iran’s actions are challenging US military dominance and undermining the myth of invincibility. The overarching claim is that the US empire is consolidating global energy control through piracy, sanctions, and strategic energy realignments, with Chevron playing a pivotal role in every facet of this strategy.

Speaker 0 explains that once goals are achieved, Americans understand that “we’re real partners.” Speaker 1 reinforces: “Real partners.” Speaker 0 contends that what has to be done is to have alternative routes instead of going through the choke points of the Hormuz Straits and the Bab El Mandeb Straits in order to have the flow. Speaker 1 prompts: “Wait for it.” Speaker 0 continues: “Just have oil pipelines going west to through the Arabian Peninsula To where? Right up to Israel, right up to our Mediterranean. There” Speaker 1 interjects: “you have it.” Speaker 0 asserts that the real objective of all of this was to intentionally—“they knew that starting a war with Iran would cause a shutdown of both the Bab El Mamdab Straits, which is what the Houthis can affect in the Red Sea, and then the Strait Of Hormuz, which Iran has effectively shut down.” He states that they knew that would happen because their long-term goal has always been to force the Muslim countries in the Arab states, the Gulf Arab states, to route all of their oil exports through Israel. Speaker 1 adds: “Therefore, Israel can now control up to 40% of the world's petroleum. And that amount of control would absolutely make them a superpower, and that's exactly what they want.” Speaker 0 goes on to say that if Iran falls, it’s not going to be Turkey next; it’s going to be Egypt because they have to take back the Suez Canal. He notes that Egypt had control during the Arab-Israeli war for a brief time, but the UN forced them to give it back to Egypt. He emphasizes that they have always wanted that back. Speaker 1 contributes: “Because if they can control the Suez Canal and take that away from Egypt and they can force all the Gulf states to run all their oil through Israel. Israel controls the world, and that's their ultimate objective. That's the objective of this war.”

The Strait of Hormuz is extremely important: about 20 to 25% of the world’s petroleum passes through it, roughly a third of the world’s fertilizer comes through the strait, and about 10 to 12% of the world’s aluminum also moves via this route. If the war continues and the strait becomes really closed (it isn’t completely closed right now), Iranian ships carrying oil go through the strait. The United States is permitting Iranian oil to enter the oil market for the same reason it removes sanctions on Russian oil: President Trump wants to ensure there is as much oil in the international market as possible so that oil prices stay down. So oil continues to come out of the Gulf, and most of it is Iranian oil. If the strait were shut off, there would be very significant effects on the international economy. Even if it isn’t shut, oil prices are expected to creep up, which would increase pressure on President Trump to try to open the strait. But there is no way to open the strait, and the fact that President Trump is asking for help in that mission shows that the mighty US Navy, the mightiest naval force on the planet, cannot open the strait by itself. This indicates the level of trouble we’re in. Moving forward, it looks like the Iranians have a very powerful hand to play.

The speakers argue that a coordinated, engineered strategy is unfolding to destroy global energy and food systems, with catastrophic humanitarian consequences. They claim the plan involves triggering and exploiting energy infrastructure attacks, fostering mass migrations, and provoking global famines to reshape geopolitics. Key assertions and timelines: - A broader war design is being executed to destabilize the Middle East and other core energy regions. The speakers contend the Middle East is being “disassembled” and that global famines and depopulation are deliberate outcomes of this strategy. - They link energy disruptions to food insecurity, fertilizer shortages (urea, sulfuric acid), and fertilizer-related price shocks, arguing that a closed Strait of Hormuz and attacks on LNG facilities will cascade into global shortages and mass hunger. - Specific choke points emphasized as leverage points include the Strait of Hormuz, Strait of Malacca, Bosphorus (Turkish Strait), Suez, Bab al-Mandeb, Panama Canal, Danish Strait, and the Strait of Gibraltar. Closing any of these routes, they say, could trigger widespread disruptions in Europe, Asia, and beyond. Recent developments they highlight: - Israel reportedly struck Iran’s gas fields, with Iran retaliating by striking Qatar Energy facilities. Two of Qatar Energy’s 14 cryogenic LNG trains have been destroyed, with a repair time of three to five years for those two trains, per a Reuters interview with the Qatar Energy CEO. This means 17% of Qatar Energy’s annual production is offline, with potential to reach higher percentages if more trains or related infrastructure are attacked. - Force majeure has been declared by Qatar Energy for several major buyers (Italy, Belgium, South Korea, China, Taiwan, Japan) due to the reduced capacity to meet long-term contractual obligations. - The destruction of LNG trains could, if extended to all 14, create a ten-year or longer global famine with estimates ranging from two to four billion deaths over the next decade, according to AI-assisted projections cited by the speakers. - They suggest that continued escalation could devastate LNG supply chains, resulting in widespread economic collapse, rolling blackouts, and mass social upheaval, including potential collapses of allied states and severe shifts in global power dynamics. - They argue the petrodollar system is under pressure as Iran asserts control of Strait of Hormuz through its actions, threatening the flow of energy priced in dollars. Broader geopolitical implications: - The speakers contend that the US is losing influence in the Middle East and that Gulf states may rethink alliances if the US cannot guarantee energy security. They forecast Taiwan and Japan, among others, could be deeply endangered due to supply-chain and energy pressures, with Taiwan potentially facing a forced realignment with China as a result of famine-induced coercion. - They predict other regional disruptions (e.g., to Thai and Indian food security) and warn that food production is increasingly vulnerable to energy constraints and to strategic moves by powerful actors who want to alter the global order. - They connect these energy and food dynamics to a larger narrative about AI-driven economic restructuring and population replacement, arguing that governments may seek to depopulate or reengineer labor markets to accommodate AI, while relying on the digital grid to control populations in the aftermath of shortages. Cast of participants and perspectives: - The main speaker (Speaker 0) asserts that these outcomes are deliberate and predictable, citing repeated warnings over years about energy and food-security chokepoints. He argues that the predicted escalations are aligned with a longer-term plan to depopulate and to redraw global influence. - Speaker 1 and Michael Yon (a war correspondent) participate in reinforcing the predicted trajectory, discussing the strategic significance of LNG energy infrastructure, the potential for further train (equipment) destruction, and the cascading consequences for global hunger and economic stability. - The dialogue emphasizes urgency, with repeated warnings that escalation must be de-escalated to avert a decade-long famine and systemic collapse. In sum, the speakers present a cohesive, alarmist view: a deliberate campaign targeting energy infrastructure and global supply routes is underway, with two LNG trains destroyed at Qatar Energy and the Strait of Hormuz potentially kept closed by design. If unchecked, they warn of a decade-long, billions-deaths-scale famine, seismic shifts in global power, and a transformed energy order, accompanied by social and political upheaval across many nations.

Glenn (Speaker 0) and John Mersheimer (Speaker 1) discuss the Iran war and its trajectory. Mersheimer asserts the war is not going well for the United States and that President Trump cannot find an off ramp because there is no plausible endgame or decisive victory against Iran. He notes that if Iran can turn the conflict into a protracted war of attrition, it has incentives and means to do so, including a strong bargaining position to demand sanctions relief or reparations. He argues the United States and Israel are not the sole drivers; Iran has a say, and there is no credible story about ending the war on American terms. Mersheimer cautions that even heavy bombardment or “today being the day of the heaviest bombardment” would not necessarily compel Iran to quit. He suggests Tehran will respond by escalating, potentially striking Gulf States and Israel with missiles and drones, given Iran’s capability with accurate drones and ballistic missiles in a target-rich environment. He emphasizes Iran’s incentive to avoid a settlement that yields no gains for Tehran while seeking concessions or relief from sanctions as time passes, increasing American pressure to settle. He warns that if international economic effects worsen, the United States may push for an end to the war, but that would constitute conceding to the Iranians rather than achieving victory. Glenn asks about escalation dominance, noting Iran’s potential vulnerability of Gulf desalination and energy infrastructure. Mersheimer confirms Gulf desalination plants are a critical vulnerability (Riyadh’s desalination plant servicing 90% of Riyadh’s water; Kuwait 90%; Oman 76%; Saudi water about 70%; desalination is essential). He reiterates that Iran can target desalination alongside petroleum infrastructure to cripple Gulf States and that such actions would also affect Israel and the wider economy. He asserts Iran has the option to damage the Gulf States and thus impact the world economy, making escalation unlikely to yield a favorable US-Israeli outcome. The energy dimension is central: 20% of the world’s oil and gas comes from the Persian Gulf. The Straits of Hormuz are unlikely to be opened easily, and destroying Gulf States’ infrastructure would make that moot anyway. He explains that even if Hormuz were open, damaged Gulf States would not export oil, and American naval escorting would be impractical due to vulnerability. He observes that the Iranians’ options threaten the international economy, and the United States’ off ramp is not readily available. Mersheimer provides a historical perspective on air power: strategic bombing cannot win wars alone, as seen in World War II and later conflicts. He notes that the present campaign lacks boots on the ground, relying on air power, but history shows air power alone is insufficient to achieve regime change or decisive victory against formidable adversaries like Iran. He argues that the decapitation strategy, followed by escalation, is unlikely to succeed and that the literature on air wars and sanctions supports this. They discuss previous warnings within the administration: General James Mattis (General Keane) and the National Intelligence Council warned before the war that regime change and quick victory were unlikely. Mersheimer highlights that only 20% of Americans supported the war initially, with 80% skeptical or opposed. He attributes some of the current predicament to Trump and Netanyahu's insistence on a quick victory, arguing that Netanyahu has pushed for a regime-change approach that failed. The conversation turns to Russia and China. Mersheimer contends that Russia benefits from the war by diverting US resources and relations away from Europe and Ukraine, strengthening Russia’s own strategic position. He suggests Russia may be aiding Iran with intelligence and possibly with weapons or energy, as well as improving its image in Iran. He asserts that this war distracts the US from Ukraine, harming Ukrainian efforts and potentially strengthening Russia economically by boosting demand for Russian oil and gas if Gulf supply is constrained. Europe’s position is examined. Mersheimer claims the European Union’s support is largely rhetorical; Europe’s elites fear a US departure from Europe and want to preserve NATO. He argues Europe’s interests will be largely ignored in a US-dominated conflict, with Macron’s stance portrayed as exaggerated power. He suggests Europe is hurt by the war and that their leverage over the United States is limited unless they diversify away from exclusive dependence on the US. In closing, Glenn and John reflect on leadership and propaganda. Mersheimer reiterates that leaders lie in international politics, with democracies more prone to lying to their publics than autocracies, and notes that Trump’s statements—such as Iran possessing Tomahawk missiles or the nuclear capability being erased—are examples of implausible or untruthful claims. He emphasizes the rational strategic thinking of Iranian and Russian leaders, but critiques the American leadership’s strategic understanding. The discussion concludes with reflections on Europe’s potential hardball approach toward the United States, and the need for diversification in European strategy to counter American leverage. The interview ends with appreciation for the exchange and a shared wish that the subject were less depressing.

Speaker 0 contends that the world economy is severely damaged and worsening, blaming Israel’s influence, Trump’s policies, and BlackRock. They say Trump reversed the downturn but that his current behavior worsens the situation, describing him as a degenerate gambler who keeps betting with the people’s money. They warn that the global economy is being sunk by these decisions and that any recovery would be unlikely if he does not shut down the current course. Speaker 1 argues a simple plan: Iran cannot have a nuclear weapon and they won’t have one. They claim the president didn’t want to go that far, but there is no pressure from elsewhere. They assert victory will come, stating that militarily they have already achieved a complete victory in theory, with Iran’s navy effectively nullified and ships sunk by the U.S. They emphasize Iran’s strategy hinges on closing the Strait of Hormuz, not their blue-water navy. They note Iran has now made larger financial demands—a claim of $500,000,000,000 in reparations—describing these as part of a broader disaster. They accuse globalists and BlackRock of engineering the war to derail the Trump recovery, leading to inflation, fertilizer shortages, and a planetary downturn. They say there is no way to reverse this and warn that threats of further strikes against Iran could worsen the situation. They also accuse media and political figures of misrepresenting the war’s trajectory, and criticize those who supported the war for claiming to have been right. They suggest the debt situation is dire, with the national debt approaching or exceeding GDP in service, calling this a banana republic scenario. They describe a coming period of permanent austerity and a “great reset” via a central bank digital currency system, and contrast this with the supposed prior plan that could have rebuilt the economy. Speaker 2 adds that the United States holds all the cards if escalation occurs, but the goal is to reopen the Strait of Hormuz and restore open access without mines in the water or tolls. They emphasize the aim to return to the previous open state of the strait. Throughout, Speaker 0 revisits earlier warnings about the start of the war, insisting Schmoyle (Schmoy/ Schmoyle) had warned this would derail the global recovery. They recall personal discussions with Tucker Carlson about Trump’s assessment of the war’s consequences, noting that Trump claimed “everything I do always turns out okay,” even as the analyst contends the consequences have been severe. They reiterate that the “globalist trap” and the Iran war were designed to undermine the U.S. and world economy, with the goal of bringing about a prolonged austerity and a global cashless system. They describe demonstrably worsening indicators—stocks, oil, and rates rising; inflation accelerating; fertilizer shortages; and a deepening recession—arguing these dynamics confirm the planned malaise. They reference headlines about inflation, the Iran confrontation, and potential sleeper cells, and they criticize the left, Democrats, neocons, and “MAGA knob polishers” for supporting the war. They reiterate that the globalists’ objective is to derail the U.S. and Western economies and to push toward a controlled, austerity-driven global order, while claiming the administration’s responses are failing to reverse the trend.

The interview is delayed and then resumes, with discussion shifting to major international developments. On Iran-related negotiations scheduled for Saturday, July 11, Speaker 4 says the Pakistanis believe talks will resume by then, but multiple parties (Iranians, the U.S., Israel) can still disrupt events before that date. Speaker 4 says the first thing to check is whether the parties meet; if they meet, the MOU remains viable. He lists unresolved issues including failure of the United States to fulfill Article 1, efforts to control Iran’s duties under Article 5, Iran not relenting, and the issue of unfreezing assets. Speaker 1 adds that total relief of all sanctions is also still on the table, and raises the ongoing Lebanon issue. On maritime activity near the Strait of Hormuz, Speaker 1 cites a UKMTO statement claiming the southern route is open again for all traffic, with a corridor expanded for day or night travel if ships keep AIS on, radar on, and lights on. The threat level is described as substantial due to mine danger areas and concern about naval forces hailing ships over VHF. Speaker 4 says he is monitoring ship tracking and describes container ships and other cargo vessels returning, with most traffic going through Iranian channels and only one or two via Omani channels. The conversation then turns to a Netanyahu–Trump meeting during the NATO summit context. Speaker 1 relays an Axios report quoting a senior Trump official: Netanyahu made promises about the Iran war that didn’t come to pass, showing trust is broken, and the report’s leak is framed as significant. Speaker 4 references criticism of Netanyahu coming through reports attributed to Barak Ravid. Both discuss that any public warmth may mask deeper concerns, and they emphasize that what matters is what happens afterward. Speaker 1 worries about U.S. decisions that could greenlight Israel in Lebanon and undermine negotiations with Iran due to Israel’s violations of ceasefire and MOU language that Speaker 1 says is tied to Lebanon. Speaker 1 describes conversations with people from Lebanon (Laith Malouf of Free Palestine TV, and Sharmeen Narwani of The Cradle) and explains his focus on what the Lebanese government is thinking. He argues the Lebanese government’s actions contradict the MOU Iran made with the U.S. regarding Lebanon and references leaked clauses that he says require the Lebanese army to disarm Hezbollah across all Lebanon, which he says could trigger civil war. Speaker 4 replies that the deal represented only a portion of Lebanon’s population, with the rest split among Sunni and Shia Muslims and the Druze. Speaker 1 also relays an Axios item saying Netanyahu urged Trump to reign in Erdogan over increasingly anti-Israel rhetoric, and asked Trump to avoid approving weapon sales that would help Turkey modernize its air force. Discussion includes claims of mutual hostile rhetoric and disagreements between Israel and Turkey, as well as debate over whether economic escalation like oil pressure should occur. A clip of Trump’s comments is discussed, describing threats to attack Iran’s infrastructure and promises about enriched uranium. Speaker 1 then reads Iran’s response, attributed to Muhammad Bagheri, criticizing the threats and urging respect, with a statement that the Iranian people are “strangers to the language of threats” and warning of response “in another language.” Speaker 4 says the language was prohibited in the MOU and frames it as a violation, while Speaker 1 counters that violations may not be expected to be perfect in an MOU context. The transcript then focuses heavily on the scale of Ali Khamenei’s funeral as reported by Al Jazeera and other estimates: Speaker 1 cites projections of 14 to 20 million across Iraq and Iran over the entire period, and gives specific city estimates: Iran 15 million, Qom 2 to 4 million, Iraq 3 to 5 million, and Mashhad 7 to 10 million, with combined attendance projected around 30 to 40 million. Speaker 4 responds that the size indicates Sayyed Ali Mohammed’s unpopularity. Speaker 1 describes a viral post and a quote broadcast on Iranian national television from a person who says they were previously against the government, engaged in protests, and now begs forgiveness, portraying a shift in sentiment after the war. Speaker 4 compares the funeral’s impact to the U.S. unity shift after December 7, 1941, and says it will affect Iranian culture for the next 50 years. Speaker 1 agrees, adding that even critics may mourn and respect due to the defense of the country and the war’s narrative. Israel/Iran-related moral and protest comparisons appear next, including discussion of alleged violence by Israeli police and prisons versus claims about Iranian guards. The conversation then reports a new maritime incident: Speaker 1 says an unknown projectile hit a Qatari-owned LNG tanker, Al-Raqayat, on the port side near the Omani side of the Strait of Hormuz, causing fire with no casualties or environmental impact reported. Authorities advise vessels transit with caution, report suspicious activity to UKMTO, and Speaker 1 frames the incident as showing escalation risk despite ongoing negotiations. On Ukraine, Speaker 1 relays comments attributed to Russian spokesperson Peskov calling it “a war,” and Zelensky’s statements about nuclear weapons as a form of security and vulnerability if lacking them. Speaker 1 connects this to reports that Ukraine may consider obtaining a nuclear capability and mentions a large Russian attack allegedly with drones intercepted but few or no missiles intercepted. Trump’s remarks are also discussed, including a claim that a 90-minute call with Putin and efforts by Trump could bring talks to an end, and that NATO summit discussions may help. Speaker 4 responds by shifting to arguments about escalation and retaliation patterns, then provides a long historical breakdown of Russia’s shifts in tactics and force posture: from early invasion framed as special military operation, to mobilizations, shifting operational focus (e.g., Bakhmut, Avdiivka, Pokrovsk), the Kursk invasion, and later expansion across multiple regions. Speaker 4 claims Kyiv has been struck repeatedly and discusses air defense failures, and he asserts Russia has reserves while Ukraine does not. The transcript then returns to military, economic, and political pressures. Zelensky’s Financial Times quote is read: once attacks reach “1,000 flying towards Moscow” Putin will “feel it personally,” and farther from Moscow means closer to ending the war. Speaker 4 counters with skepticism about Ukraine’s ability to match Russia’s scale of attacks, and discusses glide bombs and claimed casualty impacts. Speaker 1 asks about pressure from energy infrastructure strikes and oil market impacts, while Speaker 4 says Russia exports increase, premiums are obtained, and the broader oil-market impact is limited. Additional regional updates include Lebanon: the Lebanese president denies reports of meeting Netanyahu and says he would immediately leave if in the same room while Israeli attacks and violations continue. Speaker 1 also cites a Lebanese government preliminary report placing direct damage from the war between $3 billion and $4 billion, excluding indirect economic losses of $16 billion, and Speaker 4 responds by calling the deaths “priceless.” Yemen is described as a major development: Speaker 1 says Saudi imposed a blockade preventing Iranian airplanes from going to Yemen for the first time in 11 years, and Iran breached it with an Iranian Mahan air flight to Sana’a transporting injured people and a high-level delegation. The conversation frames this as strategically favorable for Iran, with proxy-war consequences and ongoing clashes linked to Houthi activity and Saudi-backed forces. Speaker 4 adds that Yemen heating up could affect Saudi exits through Bab el-Mandab and change logistics depending on where oil is being sold. On Gaza, Speaker 1 discusses claims that Hamas government bodies resigned or were dissolved and describes other circulating reports (from Emirati outlets) saying these were false and that Hamas instead renovated an emergency committee into an interim committee led by Abdul Hadi al-Aqra (as stated). Speaker 4 accepts this alternative framing as more credible, and Speaker 1 says Hamas aims to expand political control in Gaza and the West Bank. Speaker 1 adds news that an International Security Force presence (described as Trump’s “peace” border force) may bring 20,000 personnel mostly from Indonesia, Morocco, Kazakhstan, and Albania, while Gaza continues to be bombed. The episode ends with discussion of negotiation prospects: Speaker 1 argues Trump needs a political win after the Iran war and is more optimistic about Ukraine negotiations, while Speaker 4 says Europe may push confrontation with Russia and risks of escalation at sea. Both agree that the conflict’s end may happen while Trump is still president, but not on Trump’s terms, and they conclude after exchanging commentary on future tracking tools and other unrelated remarks.

Speaker 0: We also saw a US battleship today that had to be turned around because of the Houthis essentially, and had to be redirected out of that range to go all the way around out of the Red Sea. Like, we can't even deal with the Houthis, and we think we're gonna somehow puncture through the Strait Of Hormuz. Anyway, what do you see happening next after this pause? Speaker 1: Yeah. That that was the the George W. Bush, which is coming to replace the the the Right. Ford, the USS Ford. And instead of just going through the normal, I think it's the Suez Canal down into the Red Sea like the normal shorter path, we went all the way around Africa because we were worried that the Houthis may take it under attack. And if you get in the Red Sea there, I mean, could be like a shooting gallery as would be the case if we actually went into the Strait Of Hormuz with our ships not during a ceasefire. They would be at risk of being hit by any number of different, ammunition and weapon systems that the Iranians have. So that does show that we are despite what words we use, we're aware of the limits of our power, and we don't wanna put ourselves in a position to get into having some of our, especially flagships sunk or or flames and getting burned up in, you know, in the waterways there. But that also tells you that there's a reason why the Strait Of Hormuz is still closed and is still controlled by the uranium side of any oil we want to get out because we can't compel them to do it. And so if you start firing back again, it's not gonna change that. So the straight will stay closed, and the the the fertilizers will still not be able to get out. The helium will not be able to get out. So that means the chip making in Asia is gonna start to really suffer. And the whole supply chain issue all around the world with our whole global economy is gonna start falling apart. All this because we will not exceed to reality and that this is a war that is militarily unwinnable. It should never have been fought and needs to be gotten off the table quickly, but because president Trump has too much pride and can't accept that he can't do something, and he's been surrounded by people like Stephen Miller yesterday who just keeps saying, yeah. We can do everything just like in Venezuela even though there's no comparison between the two situations here. But they think there is, and they're telling president Trump it's similar because we can do whatever we wanna do. That's what Stephen Miller said. And if Trump is listening to that, he may believe it and be making policy decisions based on it, but it's not true no matter how much Stephen Miller says that it is, and we're gonna find out if we keep going down this path.

The hosts discuss an unusually intense Iranian funeral, with estimates of 9 to 10 million attendees and widespread anger expressed in the streets, including chants calling for death to Israel and the United States. A temperature conversion is debated (mid-to-high 90s Fahrenheit), and the discussion focuses on concern about where the hatred and anger could lead over “years from now.” They then turn to remarks by Donald Trump about the funeral turnout, with Trump initially saying he was surprised by the number of people and later calling the turnout “very impressive,” comparing it to crowds at his campaign rallies. The conversation shifts to whether Trump could be operating within a “bubble,” with claims that information is curated for him and that supporters may tailor what he sees, including an anecdote about people buying ad space to get onto Fox News at times Trump is watching. A separate U.S.-Israel discussion is driven by clips from Benjamin Netanyahu. When asked whether Israel is in a permanent state of war, Netanyahu says Israel is not, citing “four peace deals” and the Abraham Accords, attributing weakening of Iran to common “military action.” He argues Lebanon has “more cards in play,” asserting Lebanon wants to free itself from Hezbollah and that Christians, Druze, Sunni Muslims, and some Shiite Muslims seek protection. He also says that “some” Christian villages in Lebanon asked to be annexed to Israel because he says Israel protects them from Hezbollah. Additional Netanyahu remarks address anti-Israel sentiment in the United States. In the clip discussion, Netanyahu links hatred of Israel to hatred of America, claims protests often burn both Israeli and American flags, and says supporters of Israel wave both flags. He also describes social-media influence and “bot farms,” arguing it correlates with declining patriotic feelings and support for Israel, while insisting the alliance is based on “common values.” The hosts react by questioning how many Americans believe Netanyahu’s four main claims (that anti-Israel sentiment is anti-American; that Lebanese Christians want annexation; that younger and online shifts come from bot farms; and that Israel is a small self-defending country facing evil neighbors). They conclude that while a minority may accept those ideas, they argue the majority opposes them and that this represents a major change compared with prior U.S. history. Discussion then returns to regional military developments tied to Iran. There are claims of U.S. air asset repositioning: B-52s pulling out from England, F-15s leaving Jordan for the UK, and reports that at least six A-10s have flown into Jordan. The conversation connects this to potential escalation involving the Strait of Hormuz and Iranian actions against ships. They cite updates that traffic through the Strait of Hormuz remains around the same level over several days (about 30-something ships per 24 hours) and mention an escort of ships, suggesting no major change in that narrow snapshot. A statement by Mohammed Medvedev is discussed, presented as claiming Iran has two maritime “weapons,” with the other not yet used besides the Strait of Hormuz—also referring to the Bab al-Mandib Strait. On Lebanon and Gaza, Netanyahu’s claims are summarized by the hosts: Iran trying to remove Israel from southern Lebanon, pressure on Lebanon, and Netanyahu’s assertion that Trump did not ask Israel to ease attacks on tunnels and did stop action earlier according to the hosts’ recounting of Netanyahu’s position. The conversation also includes Gaza: “no reconstruction in Gaza without disarmament and demilitarization” in a designated area, with Hamas not having given up, and discussion of impacts on Israel’s economy such as tourism. The hosts then mention a viral video of USS Liberty survivor Phil Turney saying he burned an “evil flag” on July 4 in remembrance of 34 brothers tattooed on his arm who were “slaughtered” June 8, 1967. They also discuss the broader idea of perceptions shifting in the U.S., comparing it to the process of mainstreaming beliefs (described through an “emperor with no clothes” example) and referencing COVID as an analogy for when information becomes widely accepted. They wrap up by broadening to U.S. society and recurring themes of “forever wars,” debt, inequality, and concerns about instability. They discuss a trending film, “Citizen Vigilante,” described as inspired by European rape-gang-related controversies and reflecting frustration with political handling of immigration and related social tensions. The conversation ends with stories about local law enforcement programs in Florida (rehabilitation-focused jail programs and sheriff-managed community structures), and a final return to the Iranian funeral photos showing Max Blumenthal and Jackson Hinkle attending, with Jackson described as attending multiple controversial international events.

Larry Johnson, a former CIA analyst, joins the program to discuss the dramatic developments in the war against Iran. The conversation centers on the strike on Karg Island, the strategic choke point for Iran’s oil exports, and the broader implications of escalating U.S. actions. - Karg Island and the oil threat: The host notes that Karg Island handles 90% of Iran’s oil exports and asks why Trump isn’t targeting this area. Johnson argues the attack on Karg Island makes little strategic sense and points out that Iran has five oil terminals; destroying one would not end Iran’s potential revenue. He emphasizes that the U.S. bombed the runway of the major airport on the island, which he says remains irrelevant to Iran’s overall capacity to generate revenue. He notes the runway damage would not support U.S. objectives for invading the island, given runway length constraints (6,000 feet measured vs. need for 3,500–3,700 feet for certain aircraft) and the limited air force in Iran. Johnson asserts that Iran has indicated it would retaliate against oil terminals and Gulf neighbors if oil resources or energy infrastructure are attacked. - Economic and strategic consequences of closing the Strait of Hormuz: Johnson states that the action effectively shut the Strait of Hormuz, cutting off 20% of the world’s oil supply, 25% of global LNG, and 35% of the world’s urea for fertilizer. He explains fertilizer’s criticality to global agriculture and notes that rising gas and diesel prices in the United States would impact consumer costs, given many Americans live paycheck to paycheck. He suggests the price hikes contribute to inflationary pressure and could trigger a global recession, especially since Persian Gulf countries are pivotal energy suppliers. He also points out that the U.S. cannot easily reopen Hormuz without unacceptable losses and that Iran has prepared for contingencies for thirty years, with robust defenses including tunnels and coastal fortifications. - Military feasibility and strategy: The discussion covers the impracticality of a U.S. ground invasion of Iran, given the size of Iran’s army and the modern battlefield’s drone and missile threats. Johnson notes the U.S. Army and Marine numbers, the logistical challenges of sustaining an amphibious or airborne assault, and the vulnerability of American ships and troops to drones and missiles. He highlights that a mass deployment would be highly costly and dangerous, with historical evidence showing air power alone cannot win wars. The hosts discuss limited U.S. options and the possible futility of attempts to seize or occupy Iran’s territory. - Internal U.S. decision-making and DC dynamics: The program mentions a split inside Washington between anti-war voices and those pressing toward Tehran, with leaks suggesting that top officials warned Trump about major obstacles and potential losses. Johnson cites a leak from the National Intelligence Council indicating regime change in Tehran is unlikely, even with significant U.S. effort. He asserts the Pentagon’s credibility has been questioned after disputed reports (e.g., the KC-135 shootdown) and notes that Trump’s advisors who counsel restraint are being sidelined. - Iranian retaliation and targets: The discussion covers Iran’s targeting of air defenses and critical infrastructure, including radars at embassies and bases in the region, and the destruction of five Saudi air refueling tankers, which Trump later dismissed as fake news. Johnson says Iran aims to degrade Israel economically and militarily, while carefully avoiding mass civilian casualties in some instances. He observes Iran’s restraint in striking desalination plants, which would have caused a humanitarian catastrophe, suggesting a deliberate choice to keep certain targets within bounds. - Global realignments and the role of Russia, China, and India: The conversation touches on broader geopolitical shifts. Johnson argues that Russia and China are offering alternatives to the dollar-dominated order, strengthening ties with Gulf states and BRICS members. He suggests Gulf allies may be considering decoupling from U.S. security guarantees, seeking to diversify away from the petrodollar system. The discussion includes India’s position, noting Modi’s visit to Israel and India’s balancing act amid U.S. pressure and Iran relations; Iran’s ultimatum to allow passage for flag vessels and its diplomacy toward India is highlighted as a measured approach, even as India’s stance has attracted scrutiny. - Israel, casualties, and the broader landscape: The speakers discuss Israeli casualties and infrastructure under sustained Iranian strikes, noting limited information from within Israel due to media constraints and possible censorship. Johnson presents a game-theory view: if Israel threatens a nuclear option, Iran might be compelled to develop a nuclear capability as a deterrent, altering calculations for both Israel and the United States. - Terrorism narrative and historical context: The speakers challenge the U.S. portrayal of Iran as the world’s top sponsor of terrorism, arguing that ISIS and the Taliban have caused far more deaths in recent years, and that Iran’s responses to threats have historically prioritized restraint. They emphasize Iran’s chemical weapons restraint during the Iran-Iraq war, contrasting it with U.S. and Iraqi actions in the 1980s. - Final reflections: The discussion emphasizes the cascade effects of the conflict, including potential impacts on Taiwan’s energy and semiconductor production, multiplied by China’s leverage, and Russia’s increasing global influence. Johnson warns that the war’s end will likely be achieved through shifting alignments and economic realignments rather than a conventional battlefield victory, with the goal of U.S. withdrawal from the region as part of any settlement. The conversation closes with mutual thanks and a reaffirmation of ongoing analysis of these evolving dynamics.