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In 2024, the H5N1 bird flu virus jumped from wild birds to cows, shocking virus experts. The virus has since spread rapidly through US dairy herds and poultry flocks, infecting other mammals, including 70 Americans, one of whom died. Some experts claim the Biden administration was slow to respond, while the Trump administration laid off over 100 scientists. The virus spreads easily via milking equipment, and workers have also become infected. Experts fear the virus's pandemic potential, especially given its high mortality rate in past outbreaks. Testing was slow to start, and some states still test infrequently. A new strain in cattle has led to more severe disease in some people. The virus has spread to foxes, goats, pigs, rats, cats, and raccoons. Antibody tests on dairy workers revealed a 7% infection rate, suggesting many cases go undetected. Experts are concerned that the virus could evolve into a pandemic strain. A bird flu vaccine exists but isn't FDA-licensed, and the Trump administration paused funding for Moderna's vaccine. The USDA's milk testing program has helped slow the spread, but distrust of science and vaccines hinders prevention efforts. Some scientists claim the CDC influenza division has been decimated and that a communications ban has been put on federal workers.

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We isolated coronaviruses from animals in the past to understand their threat to other species by culturing them on different cell types. This process, known as gain of function, involves enriching mutants that can infect new species. The speaker emphasizes that mass vaccination in humans is a significant gain of function experiment, leading to virus evolution. This real-world experiment involves constant virus changes due to human-to-human transmission under vaccine pressure.

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According to our data from the CDC today, vaccinated people do not carry the virus and do not get sick. This finding is not limited to clinical trials; it is also supported by real-world data.

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Jessica Hopkins from Public Health Ontario asked about plans for active surveillance in humans if there is a positive test for milk. The response mentioned developing enhanced surveillance protocols for farms, including baseline testing on pigs and birds. However, challenges were noted in implementing this plan due to sensitivities around farm access and testing migrant workers.

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We need to be careful not to have too many false positives due to extensive testing. Tests are not 100% accurate and have a small margin of error. If the overall infection rate decreases and testing is expanded to millions, there will be more false positives than actual positives. These are the challenges we face and the insights we gain. Therefore, it still makes sense to offer more testing, but not just randomly every day, rather with a specific goal in mind.

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The Biden administration should prioritize two key actions regarding bird flu. First, they need to increase testing availability, especially rapid home tests for farm workers and their families, to ensure we are aware of the virus's presence. Second, there is an existing vaccine for H5N1 that has not yet been authorized by the FDA. The administration should expedite this process to distribute the vaccine to farm workers and vulnerable populations. The urgency is heightened by uncertainty about future actions from the Trump administration, which could affect testing and vaccine authorization. Bird flu has a high mortality rate, particularly in vulnerable groups, making it crucial to prevent its spread and mutations.

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Jessica Hopkins from Public Health Ontario asked about plans for active surveillance in humans if there is a positive test for milk. The response mentioned ongoing work on enhanced surveillance protocols to be implemented on farms with positive cases. Challenges include logistical issues and sensitivities around testing on farms, such as dealing with undocumented or migrant workers.

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The transmission of avian bird flu from animals to humans is rare. We should allow farms with chickens and cows to develop natural immunity, as they are constantly being reinfected by migratory mallard ducks and waterfowl. The practice of culling is not effective.

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The widely used PCR tests for COVID-19 are too sensitive, meaning they can detect not only live virus but also dead virus and other materials. The problem is that the results sent to doctors and patients don't specify whether the virus is live or dead. Recent data from Massachusetts, New York, and Nevada showed that 90% of positive cases carried very little virus. If this trend applies nationwide, only a small fraction of positive cases would actually need to isolate and undergo contact tracing. To prevent unnecessary disruptions, it's important to test in a smarter way, focusing on the contagiousness of individuals. This approach would help schools reopen faster and make more sense overall.

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Birds don't get flu. Birds do not get influenza. Birds can get sick, but they haven't got flu, and it's not contagious. So, the PCR test is a measure of nothing. It's fraud. So and they could make the birds sick in any number of ways just by treating them badly. If they overcrowd them, that will make them sick. If they stress them, that will make them sick. And if they then come in and test them, they can claim bird flu in the flock, then they can kill all the birds, and then they can say, oh, look. Bird flu is going around. It doesn't even exist because like I told you, birds don't get colds. Birds don't sneeze. Have you ever seen a bird coughing? And I wouldn't think monkeys get pox either. Really. They're hairy.

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A Chinese study published in Nature conducted 10 million PCR tests in Wuhan and found that out of the 300 asymptomatic cases, none produced a live virus in the lab setting. This suggests that high cycling of PCR was generating false positives. PCR detects nucleic acid, not disease, and is typically followed up with confirmatory tests. The study did not confirm the presence of infectious viral particles through culture-based methods. False positives occur when healthy individuals with residual viral DNA are magnified due to high cycling. PCR can detect viral RNA long after the disappearance of the infectious virus.

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The existence of the virus is questioned due to the initial PCR test methodology being based on a computer model virus, not a purified isolate from real patients. China did not have a pure isolate, so they used elements of a genetic code to create a computer model sequence. This sequence became the basis for the PCR test. The WHO document states that the diagnosis of SARS CoV-2 should not rely on isolating the virus. The virus has never been purified, and the disease is based on generic symptoms that could be anything.

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In 2024, the H5N1 bird flu virus jumped from wild birds to cows, shocking virus experts. The virus has since spread rapidly through US dairy herds and poultry, infecting other mammals, including 70 Americans, one of whom died. Some experts claim the Biden administration was slow to respond, while the Trump administration laid off scientists. The virus spreads easily and lingers on milking equipment, infecting workers. Experts fear the virus's pandemic potential, citing its high mortality rate in past outbreaks. Testing was slow to start, and some states still test infrequently. A new strain in cattle has led to more severe disease in some people. The virus has spread to foxes, goats, pigs, rats, cats, and raccoons. Some studies suggest many human cases go undetected. Experts worry that the virus could evolve into a pandemic strain. A bird flu vaccine exists but is not FDA-licensed, and the Trump administration paused funding for Moderna's vaccine. The USDA's milk testing program has helped slow the spread, but distrust of science and vaccines hinders prevention efforts.

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The PCR test, used to determine COVID-19 cases, amplifies RNA fragments to detect the virus. However, the high amplification can also detect traces of dead virus or remnants from other coronaviruses. Scientists recommend not testing over 30 cycle thresholds to avoid false positives. When labs reduced the cycles, case numbers significantly decreased. False positives can occur almost half the time, especially in populations with low COVID-19 prevalence. In the past, PCR tests have caused false epidemics. The test requires skilled technicians and careful handling, but it is currently being conducted on a large scale with hastily trained personnel. Therefore, it is important to question the accuracy of reported case numbers.

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Testing could have been increased rapidly in countries like Taiwan, New Zealand, and Australia, which effectively avoided the epidemic. These countries learned from their past experiences and were better prepared, enabling them to act swiftly. It is crucial that we learn from this and be ready for the next outbreak, as it will undoubtedly receive significant attention.

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The data hasn't been shared because the virus wasn't isolated. Live animal samples testing positive don't provide useful information. It seems the source of the virus is not what we initially believed.

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According to the speaker, 95-99% of polio cases are asymptomatic because poliovirus is a commensal organism. Studies by the Indian Health Service of the Javonte Indians in South America found that 98-99% of those tested had immunity to all three strains of polio, yet the tribe had no instances of crippled children, short legs, or deaths from respiratory failure. The speaker claims that most viruses become less problematic as they spread through the human system. They cite COVID-19 as an example, where the initial strain was highly virulent but less contagious, while later variants like Omicron were more contagious but less pathological. The speaker suggests that significant problems with microbes typically arise when they are reverse attenuated, made more lethal in a lab, and then introduced into the population.

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The data hasn't been shared because the virus wasn't isolated. Testing live animal samples doesn't provide useful information if they only show positive results. I don't believe the virus originated from what we initially thought.

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We should not return to our complacency about pandemics. In the future, we can have mega testing platforms that are quick, inexpensive, and can test 20% of the population weekly. Monoclonal antibodies show promise in reducing death rates by 80%. The mRNA platform will make vaccine development faster, easier, and cheaper. To prevent future pandemics, we need a global alert system to detect disease outbreaks worldwide. We also need a group of infectious disease responders, like pandemic firefighters, who can quickly build capacity and respond to new pathogens. This investment is like the best insurance policy the world could buy.

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I am Don Shepherd, VP of Infectious Diseases and Vaccination Programs. We are discussing testing for H5N1. There are questions about which populations to test, what methods to use, and whether to use molecular or serosurveillance techniques. There are challenges in validating assays due to limited serum samples. In the US, testing on dairy and beef cattle has been negative. Plans include testing asymptomatic cows and commercial milk samples. Wastewater testing is considered, but distinguishing between avian and bovine strains is difficult. We need to be prepared for positive results before deciding on implementation.

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The speaker discusses the issue of cycle thresholds in PCR testing. They explain that the original protocol used a cycle threshold of 45, which amplifies the results by 10. This means that even unlikely findings, such as particles from Mars, could be detected. The speaker suggests that by using a high cycle threshold, it is possible to create a pandemic by testing healthy individuals and spreading the myth of asymptomatic spread. This is how cases are created, according to the speaker.

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According to the latest CDC data, vaccinated individuals do not carry the virus or get sick. This observation isn't limited to clinical trials but extends to real-world scenarios as well.

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The PCR test, used to detect the presence of the SARS CoV-2 virus, has come under scrutiny for its reliability and potential for false positives. The test amplifies RNA fragments to identify the virus, but it can also detect traces of dead virus or remnants from other coronaviruses. Testing at high cycle thresholds can result in false positives, especially in populations with low COVID-19 prevalence. Scientists recommend not testing over 30 cycle thresholds to reduce false positives. Lowering the cycle thresholds has led to significant reductions in reported cases. The misuse and misinterpretation of the PCR test has contributed to inflated case numbers and unnecessary panic.

Lex Fridman Podcast

Michael Mina: Rapid Testing, Viruses, and the Engineering Mindset | Lex Fridman Podcast #146

Guests: Michael Mina

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In this conversation, Michael Mina, a Harvard professor specializing in infectious disease and immunology, discusses his first principles approach to science and the importance of rapid at-home testing for COVID-19. Mina emphasizes that such testing is a powerful, feasible solution that should have been implemented earlier. He highlights the high accuracy of these tests in detecting contagiousness and their potential for mass production. Mina reflects on the fascinating interactions between viruses, particularly how measles can devastate immune memory in children, and the evolutionary advantages of such mechanisms. He expresses fascination rather than fear about the complexities of viral behavior and the potential for future pandemics, noting that the current COVID-19 virus could have been much worse. The discussion shifts to the role of rapid testing in controlling the spread of COVID-19. Mina argues that empowering individuals with information about their infectious status can significantly reduce transmission rates. He criticizes the slow adoption of rapid testing in the U.S., attributing it to bureaucratic hurdles and a paternalistic healthcare system that prioritizes perfection over practical solutions. Mina believes that widespread testing could have a transformative impact on public health and the economy. Mina also discusses the challenges of vaccine distribution and the uncertainty surrounding vaccine efficacy and transmission prevention. He stresses the need for rapid testing alongside vaccination efforts to effectively manage the pandemic. The conversation touches on the potential for future pandemics, particularly from influenza viruses, which can mutate rapidly and pose significant threats. Mina warns that the tools for creating engineered viruses exist, raising ethical concerns about gain-of-function research and the potential for bioterrorism. Mina shares his journey of becoming a Buddhist monk and how that experience shaped his perspective on life and suffering. He emphasizes the importance of seeing solutions rather than problems and encourages young people to think broadly and creatively about tackling global challenges. Overall, the discussion underscores the urgency of implementing rapid testing as a public health tool and the need for innovative thinking in addressing future health crises. Mina's insights reflect a blend of scientific rigor, philosophical reflection, and a commitment to improving public health outcomes.

Breaking Points

BIRD FLU SCARE? Nationwide Wide Milk Testing Ordered

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A significant bird flu outbreak is affecting dairy cow herds in the U.S., with over 710 herds infected across 15 states, primarily in California. The USDA has ordered testing of the nation's milk supply, which was delayed due to concerns over dairy industry profits and fears of a new pandemic. Experts warn that the virus could mutate to spread among humans, with a concerning case of a child in California who had no known contact with sick animals. The USDA's late response has raised alarms about potential human transmission. The situation highlights the need for more stringent precautions to prevent a broader health crisis.