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The Department of Treasury is issuing record levels of debt, with $7 trillion issued in just 3 months and $23 trillion in a year. This has bloated the treasury market, raising concerns about a potential crash. The economy is propped up by debt, with federal debt rising by $1 trillion every 90 days. US treasuries are seen as cash but are actually promises to pay back in the future. The illusion that all debt will be repaid is crucial, as any doubts could lead to a financial system collapse. Fiscal trends are worsening, with a $2 trillion deficit that will increase during a recession. Collapse seems inevitable without intervention. Visit profsaintonj.com for more details.

There's even more bad news as China's economy exposes a deeper problem in shadow banking. The shadow banking sector is estimated to be worth at least $3,000,000,000,000, and that's in China alone. And it all started with real estate. The country is facing a financial meltdown. Every week, there is a new headline about its impairments.

The US dollar is the bedrock of the world's financial system, and a rapidly rising dollar can destabilize financial markets. Despite the US printing many dollars, global demand is so high that the supply isn't enough, preventing rising US inflation. The risk comes when other economies slow down relative to the US. With less economic activity, fewer dollars circulate globally, increasing the price as countries chase them to pay for goods and service debts. This creates a "dollar milkshake" effect, forcing countries to devalue their currencies as the dollar rises. The US becomes a safe haven, sucking in capital and further increasing the dollar's value, potentially leading to a sovereign bond and currency crisis. Central banks may try to intervene, but the momentum can become unstoppable. The world is stuck with the dollar underpinning the global financial system, so everyone needs to pay attention to the dollar milkshake theory.

The speaker discusses the possibility of the government collapsing before the election due to losing control. They mention issues in the credit markets, commercial real estate, and regional bank stocks. The Federal Reserve has paused interest rates, which historically leads to economic damage. They also mention that money supply m2 went negative for the first time since 1930 in November 2022, which could impact the economy in the next 6 months. The speaker criticizes the recent US jobs report, calling it fraudulent and accusing the government of cooking the books.

The transcript presents a sweeping critique of the modern monetary system, arguing that money is created not by governments but by private banks through debt, with consequences that affect the entire world. The speakers outline a long historical arc in which banking interests, central banks, and debt-based money have steadily gained power, eroded public sovereignty, and produced recurring crises, while the general population bears the costs. Key claims and points - The root problem: The money supply is created by the community of money users through borrowing from commercial banks. The bulk of money creation originates with banks, which decide when and how much money to produce, leading to an out-of-control system. Governments borrow money from banks, which effectively enslaves the broader economy. - Concept of the debt-money system: The money system is described as a global Ponzi scheme, in which new money comes into existence as debt with interest. Because interest must be paid, the system requires ever more debt to be sustained, and people and nations are drawn into a cycle that benefits banks at the expense of the public. - Historical pattern of private control: The narrative traces a long history in which private banking families (notably the Rothschilds, Rockefellers, and Morgans) and allied financiers manipulated governments to borrow and to reward speculative advantage. It alleges that private central banks and debt-based money systems sought to consolidate power in private hands, sometimes by fomenting or exploiting crises. - Tally sticks and early monetary control: In medieval England, tally sticks were used as money and as a way to keep money power out of bankers’ hands. Their suppression by bankers in 1834 is described as a revenge of a debt-free money system that had empowered the public for centuries. - Goldsmiths, fractional reserve lending, and counterfeiting: The text explains fractional reserve lending as a historic means by which goldsmiths expanded the money supply beyond real reserves, enabling them to profit from interest and to influence economies; this practice is labeled a form of counterfeiting and a source of systemic instability. - The rise of central banking and central control: The transformation from debt-free or government-issuing money to privately controlled central banks is traced from the Bank of England (1694) to the U.S. National Banking Act (1863) and the creation of the Federal Reserve System (1913). The Aldrich Plan, the Jekyll Island meeting (1910–1912), and the public relations campaign to popularize a central banking system are described as pivotal steps toward centralized control over the money supply. - Lincoln’s greenbacks and the political fight over money: The narrative emphasizes Abraham Lincoln’s issuance of greenbacks during the Civil War as debt-free money created by the government. It claims bankers reacted defensively (Hazard Circular) and moved to undermine greenbacks through bonds and later the National Banking Act, which made private banks central to the money supply. Lincoln’s assassination is linked to the broader battle over monetary policy. - Civil War, the rise of debt, and depressions: The text links episodes such as the Panic of 1837, the Coinage Act of 1873, and the Panic of 1893 to deliberate contractions or manipulations of money supply by banking interests. It argues these episodes were engineered to force or normalize debt-based monetary arrangements and central banking. - The 20th century and the Federal Reserve: The Great Depression is attributed to deliberate contraction of the money supply by the Federal Reserve. The text argues that the Fed, a privately owned central bank, has operated to protect the banking sector at the public’s expense, with the 2008 financial crisis cited as confirmation of this dynamic. - Political economy and influence: The narrative contends that politics and academia have been co-opted by moneyed interests. It asserts that large campaign contributions from banks shape policy, and that many economists are funded or controlled by the Reserve and major banks, limiting critical debate about monetary reform. It also claims media and public discourse are constrained by debt relationships and corporate power. - Proposed reforms and principles: Across speakers, a consensus emerges around three core reforms: - Forbid government borrowing as a mechanism for money creation; return to debt-free, government-created money that serves the public interest. - Put money creation under public control, not private banks, with national or local sovereign authority issuing debt-free currency. - End fractional reserve lending and ensure robust competition among banks so that money is created in the public interest and channeled into productive real-economy lending rather than financial speculation. - Practical implementation ideas offered by some speakers: - Government to issue debt-free sovereign currency directly; private banks would compete to lend government-approved money to the public. - Eliminate consolidated currencies (e.g., the euro) in favor of national sovereignty over money creation. - Use monetary policy to match money supply with real productive activity, controlling inflation by adjusting the money supply through public channels rather than debt-based credit expansion. - Repeal or reform existing central banking structures to reestablish a Bank of the United States owned by the people rather than by private banks. - Promote transparency, reduce the influence of special interests in academia and media, and educate the public about money creation. - Enduring critique and warning: If the status quo persists, the system is said to threaten Western civilization and global freedom, with potential for continued debt-serfdom and systemic collapse if debt-based money and private central banks remain in control. - Concluding perspective: The speakers urge decisive reform, emphasizing that the truth about money creation is accessible to the public and that collective political will can restore monetary systems to serve the people. They conclude with a call to remember Margaret Mead’s idea that a small group can change the world, and exhort listeners to pursue debt-free monetary reform as a path to greater production, independence, and freedom.

The Japanese yen recently crashed past 150 to the dollar, a level the Bank of Japan was expected to defend, raising concerns of a potential global financial crisis. Japan's "zombie economy," supported by high public spending and zero interest rates, allows investors to earn significantly more in the US or Europe. This is causing capital flight from Japan, weakening the yen. The weaker yen has increased import prices, especially for energy and food, impacting Japanese consumers whose incomes have remained stagnant for 25 years. The Bank of Japan can't raise interest rates to strengthen the yen due to Japan's massive public debt, which is 267% of its GDP. Raising rates to US levels would make debt service unsustainable. Rising inflation may force the government and Bank of Japan to inject more money, potentially creating a cycle of further currency devaluation and rate increases. Japan's debt level could trigger a global debt crisis, dwarfing the crisis of 2008.

The discussion centers on the surge in gold and silver prices and the idea that this signals a broader financial crisis. The hosts note gold recently around $4,600 per ounce and silver near $92, with silver has seen renewed interest as a potential hedge amid financial stress. Analysts point to silver production at about 800 million ounces per year, and bank short positions in silver reportedly totaling about 4.4 billion ounces; the argument is that if silver continues to rise, it could strain the big U.S. banks that have underwritten these shorts. Peter Schiff, a silver and gold expert and economist, argues that the price movements reflect a coming financial crisis akin to the subprime mortgage crisis of 2007, but this time tied to U.S. sovereign credit and the dollar. He notes that gold and silver have risen substantially—gold has more than doubled and silver has nearly tripled in the past year—and frames this as a warning of a dollar crisis and a U.S. treasury crisis that could hit next year. He emphasizes that foreign central banks are buying gold instead of U.S. treasuries, signaling a shift away from the dollar as the global reserve currency, and predicts that this will lead to higher consumer prices and higher interest rates as the dollar’s buying power collapses. Referring to Venezuela’s experience, Schiff connects the issue to the broader dynamics of global currency demand, suggesting that the U.S. has used the dollar’s reserve status to sustain higher levels of spending, but that the world is moving away from the dollar. He forecasts a much weaker purchasing power for ordinary Americans, with prices rising sharply while wages may not keep pace. He provides a provocative example, suggesting that a hamburger could jump from about $15 to $30 or $50, illustrating the potential magnitude of inflation and the erosion of real income. On the silver short position for banks, Schiff says those who are shorting silver, especially those who do not own the metal, are in trouble and could face significant losses, though he does not claim this alone would bankrupt banks. He argues that banks also face deteriorating loan books and housing market pressures, with commercial real estate already down and residential prices still adjusted. He contends the banking system is in a precarious position, contributing to the Fed’s rate cuts and policy moves aimed at propping up banks. For individuals, Schiff argues that the dollar’s reserve status has enabled living beyond means, and as the dollar declines, imported goods will become much more expensive. He advises a shift away from paper assets toward real money such as gold and silver, and highlights mining stocks as potential opportunities, noting that costs for mining may be lower than a year ago while prices for metals rise. He asserts that junior mining stocks could outperform as the market recognizes their leverage to rising metal prices, and promotes diversification into gold and silver investments as a hedge against a dollar crisis.

Banks are attempting to change rules to avoid collapse, particularly in relation to derivatives. Derivatives are risky bets in the stock market that caused the 2008 financial crisis. Despite promises of regulation, banks continue to engage in unregulated and unreported derivative trading. A new proposed rule aims to allow big banks to avoid margin calls during periods of market volatility, essentially giving them a free pass on risky bets. The recent example of Archegos and Credit Suisse highlights the dangers of counterparty risk in the derivative market. This rule change suggests that banks are anticipating increased market volatility. Overall, politicians and regulators are aligned with the interests of banks, and the global monetary system is highly leveraged.

Banks are broke due to fractional reserve banking allowing lending money they don't have. Central banks engage in counterfeiting through quantitative easing, manipulating interest rates. Politicians and central banks create moral hazard. Taxpayers bear the burden when banks fail. Without consequences, this cycle will persist.

Federal Reserve Chairman Jay Powell initially indicated that interest rates would remain high, but later suggested that rate cuts were being considered. This sudden change led some to speculate that it was politically motivated, aimed at helping Joe Biden's presidential campaign. However, there is a deeper concern that the US economy's underlying fundamentals are weak, forcing the Fed to scramble for solutions. The zero interest rate policy has fundamentally changed the world, allowing for increased debt despite low unemployment. This unsustainable debt-based economic scheme is causing the deficit to rise. Society and long-term economic cycles are undergoing radical transformations, as seen in changing attitudes towards environmentalism, women's rights, and political elections.

The global financial system relies on the US dollar, and a rapidly rising dollar can destabilize markets. Despite the US printing dollars, global demand remains high for trade, debt servicing, and reserves. Countries need dollars to buy commodities like copper, oil, and soybeans, creating constant demand. The US benefits from this system, controlling access and settlement. A slowdown in other economies coupled with US growth can create a dollar shortage, raising its price and hurting countries needing dollars to pay for goods and debts. This leads to a "dollar milkshake" effect, forcing countries to devalue their currencies and causing capital to flow into the US as a safe haven. This can trigger sovereign bond and currency crises, with central banks unable to stop the momentum. The lack of alternatives to the dollar means the world is stuck with it, making the "dollar milkshake theory" a critical risk to monitor.

If a store of wealth is in jeopardy due to excessive supply and demand, and monetary inflation occurs, severe disruptions will result. These disruptions could resemble the breakdown of the monetary system in 1971 or the 2008 financial crisis, but could be even more severe if other factors occur simultaneously. The worst-case scenario involves a political downturn, internal conflict that deviates from normal democratic processes, and international conflict that significantly disrupts the world, all impacting the value of money.

Banks are broke due to fractional reserve banking allowing lending of money they don't have. Central banks engage in counterfeiting through quantitative easing. Governments and central banks manipulate interest rates, not retail banks. Taxpayers bear the cost of bank failures. Without consequences for bankers and politicians, this cycle will persist.

The Federal Reserve's actions are worrisome. They've lost trillions by borrowing money at high rates (5.4% from banks, 5.3% from funds like Fidelity and Vanguard) to buy government bonds. This artificially inflates the government's perceived financial health, encouraging excessive borrowing when rates were low. This process diverts capital from the private sector, hindering business growth and job creation. Instead of the Fed holding massive balances, that money should be used by businesses for expansion and innovation. The Fed's actions are mirrored by other major central banks globally, exacerbating the problem. It's not money printing; it's expensive borrowing that harms the economy. Freeing up these funds would allow banks to lend to small businesses and stimulate economic growth.

The Federal Reserve has destabilized the economy, acting as both arsonist and fireman through monetary manipulation. Fractional reserve banking allows banks to create money, leading to risks of insolvency. Central banks, like the Fed, enable governments to spend beyond their means, creating a "fiscal illusion." The gold standard restrained government spending, but the 1913 Federal Reserve Act established the Fed, promising to maintain it. The Fed was intended to be a lender of last resort to prevent bank failures. The Federal Open Market Committee makes interest rate policy, influencing the money supply. The Austrian business cycle theory suggests credit expansion leads to unsustainable booms and busts. Removing the dollar from the gold standard in 1971 led to fiat currency, causing economic uncertainty and stagflation. The Fed's policies create winners and losers, benefiting the government, large corporations, and political elites, while harming the average working American. Financialization has exploded since the gold standard ended, with Wall Street banks empowered by the Fed. The Fed's low interest rates inflated the housing bubble in the early 2000s. The 2008 crisis led to new Fed interventions, including buying mortgage-backed securities. The Fed's actions have resulted in an "everything bubble" of inflation, redistributing wealth from the middle class to Wall Street and Silicon Valley. A Fed-controlled digital currency could magnify its power, enabling control over spending. Some argue for ending the Fed, advocating for sound money, a return to the gold standard, and a free market approach to currency.