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The panelists discuss whether recent developments around Ukraine, NATO security guarantees, and Western support can produce a peace agreement acceptable to Russia and Ukraine, and what the war’s trajectory might look like by year-end and beyond. Initial reactions and sticking points - Speaker 1 sees potential in recent moves if true and reliable, arguing Ukraine is signaling goodwill to the United States, but remains skeptical that a peace deal will satisfy both sides given core demands over territory and Donbas control. He emphasizes the Donbas as the central unresolved issue. - Speaker 2 notes Putin’s need to show tangible gains to save face, arguing the war is being fought to achieve declared goals and that Russia will not sign a deal unless it secures substantial results. Security guarantees, no-fly zones, and peacekeeping - The discussion centers on two main proposed points: U.S. security guarantees (including possible no-fly zone enforcement) and a European-led peacekeeping force in Ukraine. There is debate about how binding such guarantees would be and whether Russia would accept them, with concerns about the Budapest Memorandum’s history of non-fulfillment versus what a new, more comprehensive, legally binding framework might look like. - Speaker 1 points out that even a robust security package would require Russian agreement, which he doubts will be forthcoming given Moscow’s current aims. He underscores that Europe’s and the U.S.’s support for Ukraine is contingent on political will, which could waver, but he notes Ukraine’s trust gap with U.S. guarantees given past experiences. - Speaker 2 stresses that Putin’s aims include defeating NATO and achieving a U.S.-level accommodation (a “Yalta 2.0” style deal) while keeping Western control over Europe at arm’s length. He argues Putin would accept U.S. and possibly some European troops but not a formal NATO presence on Ukrainian soil, especially in western Donbas or beyond. Budapest memorandum vs. new guarantees - Both sides discuss the difference between a nonbinding Budapest Memorandum and a more robust, legally binding security guarantee. Speaker 1 highlights Ukraine’s past trust in security assurances despite U.S. and European failures to honor them, suggesting skepticism about the enforceability of any new guarantees. Speaker 2 suggests that a stronger, more binding arrangement could be essential for Russia to accept any settlement, but that Moscow would still resist concessions over full Donbas control. On-the-ground realities and war dynamics - The panelists agree Russia is advancing on multiple fronts, though the pace and strategic significance of gains vary. They discuss Ukraine’s ability to sustain the fight through Western weapons flows and domestic production (including drones and shells). They acknowledge the risk of Western fatigue and the potential for a more protracted war, even as Ukraine builds its own capabilities to prolong the conflict. - The West’s long-term willingness to fund and arm Ukraine is debated: Speaker 1 argues Europe’s economy is strained but notes continued political support for Ukraine, which could outlast Russia’s economic stamina. Speaker 2 emphasizes that Russia’s economy is fragile mainly in the provinces, while Moscow and Saint Petersburg remain relatively insulated; he also points to BRICS support (China and India) as sustaining Moscow politically and economically. Economic and strategic pressures - The role of energy revenues and sanctions is debated. Speaker 1 suggests Russia can be pressured economically to seek a deal, while Speaker 2 counters that Russia’s economy is adapting, with China and India providing strategic support that helps Moscow resist Western coercion. They discuss shadow fleet strikes and global energy markets as tools to erode Russia’s war-finance capability. - There is disagreement about whether, over time, economic pressure alone could force regime change in Russia. Speaker 1 is skeptical that penalties will trigger a voluntary Russian withdrawal, while Speaker 2 argues that sustained economic and political pressure, combined with Western unity, could push toward a settlement. Strategies and potential outcomes - Putin’s internal calculus is described as existential: he seeks a win that he can publicly claim to legitimize his rule and justify the costs of the war to the Russian people and elites. This shapes his openness to concessions and to the kinds of guarantees he would accept. - Alexander posits that a near-term peace could emerge from a deal brokered at high levels (potentially involving Trump and Putin) that reshapes European security with U.S. leadership and BRICS engagement, while Paul emphasizes that any credible end to the conflict would require Ukraine and Russia to agree to a swap-like territorial arrangement and to accept a new security framework that deters renewed aggression. End-of-year and longer-term outlooks - By year-end, the panel agrees it is unlikely that a major peace agreement will be realized under the current conditions; any real breakthrough would depend on significant concessions, including Donbas arrangements, and a credible security guarantee framework. - By the end of next year, both expect a continuation of a contested balance: Ukraine likely to press for stronger Western guarantees and EU integration, Russia seeking to preserve Donbas gains while navigating internal and external pressures. Alexander envisions two “wins” emerging: the United States under Trump coordinating a broader peace framework, and China leveraging its economic influence to shape Europe’s response. Paul anticipates a gradual trajectory with ongoing military and economic pressures and a continued stalemate unless a major concession reshapes incentives on both sides.

Speaker 0 says that Russia's strategy is to collapse morale within Ukraine and the will to fight. We've been in discussions with them about defensive weapons to be able to protect their grid, and ongoing technical conversations about the specific equipment they need, but ultimately, if that equipment is ultimately destroyed a week later after it's installed, that remains a problem, and that's been the history the last two or three years.

Today has been emotional, highlighting President Zelensky's fearless leadership and inspiration. He emphasized that Ukraine needs help urgently, not in the future. The U.S. must provide more lethal aid, including MIGs for air superiority and surface-to-air missiles. This support will demonstrate to Putin that NATO allies are united behind Ukraine. We should facilitate Poland's transfer of MIGs to Ukrainian pilots and ensure Ukraine receives the necessary support. America must stand for freedom; failing to do so could have repercussions at home. We know Putin's ambitions extend beyond Ukraine, so it's crucial to protect our homeland while assisting those in need.

Zelenskyy is trying to push for a no-fly zone, understanding that some US politicians, driven by Russophobia and influenced by the Ukrainian lobby, might push President Biden towards a more confrontational stance. We've made it clear that any cargo carrying weapons into Ukraine will be considered a fair target. Our operation aims to eliminate threats to Russia from Ukrainian soil, and security guarantees should ensure no country's security is increased at the expense of others. We remind countries considering sharing Soviet air defense systems that these transfers require our consent under existing agreements. We won't allow these risks to materialize. The operation's purpose is to protect civilians, demilitarize Ukraine, and ensure security for all European countries. Denazification, including ending discriminatory language laws, is also essential.

There was no policy decision to stop sending weapons to Ukraine. A review of stockpiles caused a temporary pause of certain munitions. During the review, some shipping slowed down, but didn't stop. The review has occurred, and there's been no change to the posture of providing what is available. Ukraine needs Patriot batteries, which are available in multiple European countries, including Spain and Germany. Some countries that have ordered Patriot batteries and are about to receive them could defer shipment to Ukraine instead. These are defensive weapons that would help with missile attacks, but not drone attacks.

Today was emotional, highlighting President Zelensky as a fearless and inspirational leader. He emphasized the urgent need for assistance—today, not tomorrow. The U.S. must provide lethal aid, including MIGs for air superiority and surface-to-air missiles. This support will demonstrate to Putin that NATO allies stand united behind Ukraine. We should facilitate Poland's transfer of MiGs to Ukrainian pilots and ensure Ukraine receives the necessary support. America must uphold the values of freedom, as neglecting this could lead to consequences at home. Putin's ambitions extend beyond Ukraine, so it's crucial to protect our homeland while helping those in need. Thank you.

We need to do more for Ukraine than just provide supplies. While sending aid is essential, we must engage in a broader strategic campaign to effectively combat the war. It's important to understand Russia's objectives, which include degrading Ukraine's military capabilities through various means. By analyzing these tactics, we can better identify countermeasures, articulate our needs, and communicate shortfalls to the international community.

I believe Ukraine needs support in the form of weapons and fighter pilots to win the war. We should provide F-16s and training for pilots. I want Ukraine to join NATO by 2024. We should issue an invitation and provide more weapons in December to help them fight in 2025. American-made weapons are being used effectively by the Ukrainians, benefiting both countries.

How can the UK further support us during this challenging time? I’ve been assessing our anti-air capabilities to ensure we can expedite their delivery to you. We're exploring a defensive alliance with a nuclear power, and it would be beneficial if the UK could be that partner. We’re eager to assist in negotiations. President Zelensky is interested in having the UK involved, especially given the lessons learned from the Minsk agreement, which lacked UK and US participation. There’s a strong desire to discuss a security alliance and other related topics in these negotiations.

**Original Language Summary:** Обсуждается возможность разрешения киевскому режиму наносить удары по территории России западным вооружением большой дальности. Подчеркивается, что украинская армия не может самостоятельно наносить удары современными высокоточными системами большой дальности без разведданных со спутников НАТО и внесения полетных заданий военнослужащими стран НАТО. Разрешение на такие удары будет означать прямое участие стран НАТО в войне на Украине, что существенно изменит суть конфликта и потребует от России принятия соответствующих решений, исходя из создаваемых угроз. **English Translation:** The possibility of allowing the Kyiv regime to strike Russian territory with long-range Western weapons is being discussed. It is emphasized that the Ukrainian army cannot independently carry out strikes with modern high-precision long-range systems without intelligence data from NATO satellites and the entry of flight missions by NATO member states' military personnel. Permission for such strikes would mean the direct participation of NATO countries in the war in Ukraine, which would significantly change the nature of the conflict and require Russia to make appropriate decisions based on the threats created.

The speaker discusses the counter offensive in Ukraine and the challenges they are facing. The lack of close air support is hindering their progress against the Russian fortifications. The speaker believes that without this support, a stalemate is likely. They also mention that the West has contributed to the problem by not providing the necessary equipment to Ukraine. The speaker suggests that negotiations or an armistice may be necessary to find a way out of the destructive war.

When it comes to supporting Ukraine, we need to provide them with the weapons and training they need to win. Retired F-16 pilots are welcome to join the fight. I want Ukraine to be invited to join NATO in 2024. American weapons are being used effectively, and we hope to provide more support in the future.

Larry: Lavrov claimed Ukraine attempted to attack Putin’s official residence in Novgorod with around 91 long-range drones in December; allegedly all intercepted, no proof provided, no reported injuries or damage. Lavrov said retaliation is coming, targets for retaliatory strikes and timing had been set. Putin supposedly mentioned this on a call to Trump two days before the Zelensky meeting in Florida; Yuri, a Kremlin aide, said Putin was shocked and outraged, and that it would influence Washington’s approach to working with Zelensky. Russians claim Trump was relieved that no Tomahawk missiles were provided to Ukraine. No US confirmation; Trump described the meeting with Putin as very productive, and discussions included the temporary ceasefire not being an option. Budanov had suggested it wouldn’t be the first assassination attempt on Putin, but the most consequential due to timing. The question posed: who is the target—Ukraine, Zelensky, Budanov—or a Russian false flag to justify attacks and derail negotiations. Speaker 1: Timelines. The attack allegedly began the night of the 28th and continued into the 29th. The Russians say it was an attack on one of Putin’s residences, described as terrorism. Putin hasn’t lived at his residences for three years, using the Kremlin instead, but this is not the first Ukrainian attempt to target Putin; there was a proposed attack when he flew into Kursk by helicopter. Russians are upset that this attack had no military objective, only potential assassination, and they know Putin wasn’t there. The Russians view it as real and plan to respond; Lavrov indicated that negotiations would be reexamined. Budanov claims Ukrainian intelligence has targeted Putin multiple times; the attack timing coincides with Zelensky in Florida, suggesting possible rifts or risk of undermining negotiations. The possibility of Western (American or British) intelligence involvement is raised, with speculation about CIA influence or European intelligence, particularly Britain’s MI6, given its Ukrainian roots. The question remains whether the attack was staged to derail negotiations or a genuine strike. Larry: If Ukraine did this, why would they? Ukraine might want to eliminate an obstacle to peace, though that could backfire; some argue Putin is more restrained than any immediate successor. If 91 drones were launched, Western intelligence would likely be involved, possibly undermining Trump’s approach. There is a sense of mixed messages from U.S. intelligence, with individuals like Susan Miller pushing claims of Russian interference that contradict other narratives. Zelensky stated no territory would be ceded as part of negotiations; Russia’s position is that Crimea, Zaporizhzhia, Kherson, Donetsk, and Luhansk must be permanently part of the Russian Federation, elections must occur in Ukraine before negotiations, NATO must be out of Ukraine, and demilitarization is non-negotiable. Russia suggests there will be no 800,000-man army; these conditions are not open for negotiation. Russia may be willing to discuss numbers of troops for Ukraine, but not to concede core territorial goals. Speaker 0: If CIA or other elements were behind this, could it be to undermine Trump or push for a peace deal by pressuring Putin? Putin showed up in uniform with the military leadership, signaling a hard stance on land/territory, stating that negotiations should proceed without ceasing. Some argue this would trigger a stronger Russian push, while others see this as undermining Trump’s efforts. Trump and Zelensky had discussed a peace plan with 90-95% agreement, with a few thorny issues, possibly territorial. Trump characterized their call as productive; Russia reportedly agreed to support Ukraine postwar with discounted energy and resources. Lavrov’s rapid response to the attack and the potential retaliation would affect ongoing negotiations, which some view as already derailed due to Ukraine’s intransigence on concessions. Speaker 1: Could European intelligence be involved? Britain’s MI6 is seen as critical; there is a suggestion that British intelligence could have acted without American consultation. This would strain relations with Trump, especially after new security strategy. The transcript also notes a broader shift in Western posture: some European leaders are pushing for stronger defense and a more independent European stance, which might influence the dynamic around negotiations and intelligence actions. Speaker 0: Zelensky’s Christmas remark, “may he perish,” followed by an attack on Putin’s residence, prompts questions about who’s pulling Zelensky’s strings. Zelensky is described as the “highest paid actor in the world” with large sums allegedly pilfered from Ukraine’s aid; Zelensky could be expendable to those steering Ukraine’s direction. The meeting in Mar-a-Lago between Zelensky, Trump, and others occurred while the Putin residence attack was underway, suggesting an attempt to undermine negotiations. Budanov’s connection to the CIA and potential independent actions by Ukrainian intelligence raise further concerns about internal Ukrainian divisions. Speaker 1: Russia’s potential retaliation could target Ukrainian intelligence assets like the SBU headquarters in Kyiv, or European assets inside Ukraine if evidence points to Western involvement. Russia’s current military actions include continuing strikes on power infrastructure, with movements in Zaporizhzhia and around Kherson, indicating an axis of attack. Independently, Russia claims significant ground progress; Ukraine counters with claims of selective advances by Russia and a favorable propaganda edge for Ukraine. The battlefield metrics show Russia increasing manpower and maintaining multiple axes of attack, with eight or more fronts, while Ukrainian recoveries of bodies show a ratio suggesting heavy Ukrainian losses. Speaker 0: The conversation ends with expectations for retaliation, possible new European involvement, and the enduring fear that negotiations remain unsettled. The next days could reveal more about who is behind the attack, how Russia responds, and whether a path to peace remains possible, given the conflicting narratives and competing strategic interests.

Speaker 1 discusses a new anti-air missile being sent to Ukraine, which is better than a Stinger and effective at night. It is intended to help close the skies to Russian aircraft. Speaker 1 raises a question for Ukraine: Given Russia's overwhelming artillery and missiles, Ukraine's ability to counter them relies on air power. How would Ukraine manage if a no-fly zone, applicable to both sides, prevented them from flying?

Russia has relative freedom in Ukraine for drone and missile operations, with good intelligence coverage. Patriot batteries transferred to Ukraine are likely to be detected and destroyed by Russia before installation. Therefore, sending Patriot batteries to Ukraine is a waste of money. At best, it will extend the war by weeks, resulting in more Ukrainian and Russian deaths, but it will not change the outcome of the war.

If the Ukrainian military doesn't stop the Russian invasion, it won't be long before our NATO forces have to fight the Russian army crossing the border.

Europe must quickly increase support for Ukraine as artillery shells, air defense interceptors, and drone production capabilities dwindle. Europe could use proposals and potentially collateralize frozen Russian assets to act fast. The speaker is concerned about the cutoff of intelligence streams from the U.S. and pressure on allies like the UK not to use US intelligence for their own weapons. The primary purpose of US intelligence has been to help Ukrainians see Russian attacks coming and have advanced warning. Key weapon systems require U.S. satellite queuing and the military GPS system to hit targets. Without these, more Ukrainians will die, and Europe cannot replace this capability quickly.

How can the UK further support us during this challenging time? We are focused on enhancing our anti-air capabilities and ensuring they arrive swiftly. We are exploring a defensive alliance with a nuclear power, and it would be beneficial if the UK could be that partner. The establishment of official British training centers in our country would be a great step forward. We are eager to support your negotiations, especially since President Zelensky values the UK's involvement, given past experiences like the Minsk agreement, which lacked UK and US participation. A security alliance is definitely a topic worth discussing in these negotiations.

Europe must quickly increase its support for Ukraine, especially as artillery, air defense, and drone production become more challenging. Europe could use proposals and potentially leverage frozen Russian assets to provide immediate assistance. The speaker is concerned about the cutoff of intelligence streams from the U.S. and pressure on allies not to use U.S. intelligence. U.S. intelligence has been vital for providing Ukrainians with advanced warning of Russian attacks. Additionally, certain weapon systems rely on U.S. satellite queuing and GPS for targeting. A prolonged pause in this support will result in more Ukrainian deaths, and Europe cannot rapidly replace this capability.

We aim to continue our nuclear program for protection against Russia and would appreciate any assistance in this area. I need to discuss broader issues with my prime minister, but we will support Ukraine in your decisions regarding NATO and weaponry. We can also explore security guarantees together. Our goal is to provide intelligence on Russian intentions and collaborate on feasible options. Regarding the peace treaty, Russia's proposal includes reducing our military and weapons. Can we expect secret supplies of weapons, perhaps stored in Poland? I understand your request.

Patriot missiles and batteries are being planned for Ukraine. A full complement with the batteries will be provided. Some are expected to arrive very soon, within days. Countries that have Patriots will swap over and be replaced with the ones they have. Matt will coordinate with NATO.

I believe we should support Ukraine by providing weapons and training for their pilots. We need to issue an invitation for Ukraine to join NATO in 2024. A military-centric supplemental in December will provide more American-made weapons to aid Ukraine in their fight for freedom. This support will help Ukraine in 2025.

Europe must quickly increase its support for Ukraine as artillery shells, air defense interceptors, and drone production capabilities dwindle. Europe could use proposals and potentially collateralize frozen Russian assets to act fast. The speaker is concerned about the cutoff of intelligence streams from the U.S. and pressure on allies like the UK not to use US intelligence for their own weapons. The primary purpose of US intelligence has been to give Ukrainians advanced warning of Russian attacks. Key weapon systems require support from US satellite queuing and the military GPS system to hit their targets. Without this support, more Ukrainians will die, and Europe cannot replace this capability quickly.

I request that we provide more reliable anti-tank weapons, as previous deliveries have often failed, causing issues for our country. We have supplied over 4,000 anti-tank weapons, with more on the way. However, we are running low on our own stock. I communicate daily with Minister Reznikov about this. Currently, we face bureaucratic challenges; there are two supply routes into the country, but the Ukrainian general staff has opted to use only one, which has slowed down the delivery of supplies to your army that urgently needs them.

Europe must quickly increase its support for Ukraine as artillery shells, air defense interceptors, and drone production capabilities dwindle. Europe could use proposals and potentially collateralize frozen Russian assets to act fast. The speaker is concerned about the cutoff of intelligence streams from the U.S. and pressure on allies like the UK not to use US intelligence for their own weapons. The primary purpose of US intelligence has been to help Ukrainians see Russian attacks coming and have advanced warning. Key weapon systems require U.S. satellite queuing and the military GPS system to hit targets. Without these, more Ukrainians will die, and Europe cannot replace this capability quickly.