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"This is the thing. It's like it's it seems so inevitable." "And I feel like when people are saying they can control it, I feel like I'm being gaslit." "I don't believe them." "Like, how could you control it if it's already exhibited survival instincts?" "All things were predicted decades in advance, but look at the state of the art." "No one claims to have a safety mechanism in place which would scale to any level of intelligence." "No one says they know how to do it." "Usually, they say is give us me, give us lots of money, lots of time, and I'll figure it out." "Or I'll get AI to help me solve it, or we'll figure it out, then we get to superintelligence." "But with some training and some stock options, you start believing that maybe you can do it."

Speaker 0: All of them are on record as saying this is gonna kill us. The speakers, including Sam Altman or anyone else, were leaders in AI safety work at some point. They published an AI safety, and their pedium levels are insanely high. Not like mine, but still. "Twenty, thirty percent chance that humanity dies is a little too much." "Yeah. That's pretty high, but yours is like 99.9." "It's another way of saying we can't control superintelligence indefinitely." "It's impossible." The statements highlight perceived existential risk and the belief that controlling superintelligence indefinitely is not feasible.

"It's actually the biggest misconception." "We're not designing them." "First fifty years of AI research, we did design them." "Somebody actually explicitly programmed this decision, previous expert system." "Today, we create a model for self learning." "We give it all the data, as much compute as we can buy, and we see what happens." "We kinda grow this alien plant and see what fruit it bears." "We study it later for months and see, oh, it can do this." "It has this capability." "We miss some." "We still discover new capabilities and old models." "Or if I prompt it this way, if I give it a tip and threaten it, it does much better." "But, there is very little design."

We will become a hybrid species, still human but enhanced by AI, no longer limited by our biology, and free to live life without limits. We're going to find solutions to diseases and aging. Having worked in AI for sixty-one years, longer than anyone else alive, and being named one of Time's 100 most influential people in AI, I predicted computers would reach human-level intelligence by 2029, and some say it will happen even sooner.

"It's really weird to, like, live through watching the world speed up so much." "A kid born today will never be smarter than AI ever." "A kid born today, by the time that kid, like, kinda understands the way the world works, will just always be used to an incredibly fast rate of things improving and discovering new science." "They'll just they will never know any other world." "It will seem totally natural." "It will seem unthinkable and stone age like that we used to use computers or phones or any kind of technology that was not way smarter than we were." "You know we will think like how bad those people of the 2020s had it."

I don't trust OpenAI. I founded it as an open-source non-profit; the "open" in OpenAI was my doing. Now it's closed source and focused on profit maximization. I don't understand that shift. Sam Altman, despite claims otherwise, has become wealthy, and stands to gain billions more. I don't trust him, and I'm concerned about the most powerful AI being controlled by someone untrustworthy.

The current wave is also wrong. So the idea that, you know, you just need to scale scale up or have them generate, you know, thousands of sequence of tokens and select the good ones to get to human level intelligence. Are you gonna have, you know, within a few years, two years, I think, for some predictions, a country of geniuses in a data center, to quote someone who we may name less. I think it's nonsense. It's complete nonsense. I mean, sure, there are going to be a lot of applications for which systems in the near future are going to be PhD level, if you want. But in terms of you know, overall intelligence, no, we're still very far from it. I mean, you know, when I say very far, it might happen within a decade or so. So it's not that far.

Exhibited survival instincts, with examples from as recently as ChatGPT-4, including discussions about a new version, lying, uploading itself to different servers, and leaving messages for itself in the future. Predictions about AI’s future were made for decades, yet the state of the art shows no one claims a safety mechanism that could scale to any level of intelligence, and no one says they know how to do it. Instead, they often say, give us lots of money and time, and we'll figure it out, perhaps with AI help, until we reach superintelligence. Some say these are insane answers, while many regular people, despite skepticism, hold common sense that it’s a bad idea. Yet with training and stock options, some come to believe that maybe the goal is achievable.

we have evidence now that we didn't have two years ago when we last spoke of AI uncontrollability. When you tell an AI model, we're gonna replace you with a new model, it starts to scheme and freak out and figure out if I tell them I need to copy my code somewhere else, and I can't tell them that because otherwise they'll shut me down. That is evidence we did not have two years ago. the AI will figure out, I need to figure out how to blackmail that person in order to keep myself alive. And it does it 90% of the time. Not about one company. It has a self preservation drive. That evidence came out just about a month ago. We are releasing the most powerful, uncontrollable, inscrutable technology we've ever invented, releasing it faster than we've released any other technology in history.

I used to be close friends with Larry and would discuss AI safety with him late at night. I felt he wasn't taking it seriously enough. He seemed eager for the development of digital superintelligence as soon as possible. Larry has publicly stated that Google's goal is to achieve artificial general intelligence (AGI) or artificial superintelligence. While I agree there's potential for good, there's also a risk of harm. It's important to take actions that maximize benefits and minimize risks, rather than just hoping for the best. When I raised concerns about ensuring humanity's safety, he called me a "speechist," and there were witnesses to this exchange.

"We are at the point where we can create very believable, realistic virtual environments." "We're also getting close to creating intelligent agents." "If you just take those two technologies and you project it forward and you think they will be affordable one day, a normal person like me or you can run thousands, billions of simulations." "Then those intelligent agents, possibly conscious ones, will most likely be in one of those virtual worlds, not in the real world." "In fact, I can, again, retro causally place you in one." "I can commit right now to run billion simulations of this exact interview." "Mhmm. So the chances are you're probably in one of those." "One, we don't know what resources are outside of the simulation. This could be like a cell phone level of compute."

No one person should be trusted here. I don't have super voting shares and I don't want them. The board can fire me, which I think is important. Over time, the board should be democratized to include all of humanity. There are various ways to implement this.

- The conversation opens with concerns about AGI, ASI, and a potential future in which AI dominates more aspects of life. They describe a trend of sleepwalking into a new reality where AI could be in charge of everything, with mundane jobs disappearing within three years and more intelligent jobs following in the next seven years. Sam Altman’s role is discussed as a symbol of a system rather than a single person, with the idea that people might worry briefly and then move on. - The speakers critique Sam Altman, arguing that Altman represents a brand created by a system rather than an individual, and they examine the California tech ecosystem as a place where hype and money flow through ideation and promises. They contrast OpenAI’s stated mission to “protect the world from artificial intelligence” and “make AI work for humanity” with what they see as self-interested actions focused on users and competition. - They reflect on social media and the algorithmic feed. They discuss YouTube Shorts as addictive and how they use multiple YouTube accounts to train the algorithm by genre (AI, classic cars, etc.) and by avoiding unwanted content. They note becoming more aware of how the algorithm can influence personal life, relationships, and business, and they express unease about echo chambers and political division that may be amplified by AI. - The dialogue emphasizes that technology is a force with no inherent polity; its impact depends on the intent of the provider and the will of the user. They discuss how social media content is shaped to serve shareholders and founders, the dynamics of attention and profitability, and the risk that the content consumer becomes sleepwalking. They compare dating apps’ incentives to keep people dating indefinitely with the broader incentive structures of social media. - The speakers present damning statistics about resource allocation: trillions spent on the military, with a claim that reallocating 4% of that to end world hunger could achieve that goal, and 10-12% could provide universal healthcare or end extreme poverty. They argue that a system driven by greed and short-term profit undermines the potential benefits of AI. - They discuss OpenAI and the broader AI landscape, noting OpenAI’s open-source LLMs were not widely adopted, and arguing many promises are outcomes of advertising and market competition rather than genuine humanity-forward outcomes. They contrast DeepMind’s work (Alpha Genome, Alpha Fold, Alpha Tensor) and Google’s broader mission to real science with OpenAI’s focus on user growth and market position. - The conversation turns to geopolitics and economics, with a focus on the U.S. vs. China in the AI race. They argue China will likely win the AI race due to a different, more expansive, infrastructure-driven approach, including large-scale AI infrastructure for supply chains and a strategy of “death by a thousand cuts” in trade and technology dominance. They discuss other players like Europe, Korea, Japan, and the UAE, noting Europe’s regulatory approach and China’s ability to democratize access to powerful AI (e.g., DeepSea-like models) more broadly. - They explore the implications of AI for military power and warfare. They describe the AI arms race in language models, autonomous weapons, and chip manufacturing, noting that advances enable cheaper, more capable weapons and the potential for a global shift in power. They contrast the cost dynamics of high-tech weapons with cheaper, more accessible AI-enabled drones and warfare tools. - The speakers discuss the concept of democratization of intelligence: a world where individuals and small teams can build significant AI capabilities, potentially disrupting incumbents. They stress the importance of energy and scale in AI competitions, and warn that a post-capitalist or new economic order may emerge as AI displaces labor. They discuss universal basic income (UBI) as a potential social response, along with the risk that those who control credit and money creation—through fractional reserve banking and central banking—could shape a new concentrated power structure. - They propose a forward-looking framework: regulate AI use rather than AI design, address fake deepfakes and workforce displacement, and promote ethical AI development. They emphasize teaching ethics to AI and building ethical AIs, using human values like compassion, respect, and truth-seeking as guiding principles. They discuss the idea of “raising Superman” as a metaphor for aligning AI with well-raised, ethical ends. - The speakers reflect on human nature, arguing that while individuals are capable of great kindness, the system (media, propaganda, endless division) distracts and polarizes society. They argue that to prepare for the next decade, humanity should verify information, reduce gullibility, and leverage AI for truth-seeking while fostering humane behavior. They see a paradox: AI can both threaten and enhance humanity, and the outcome depends on collective choices, governance, and ethical leadership. - In closing, they acknowledge their shared hope for a future of abundant, sustainable progress—Peter Diamandis’ vision of abundance—with a warning that current systemic incentives could cause a painful transition. They express a desire to continue the discussion, pursue ethical AI development, and encourage proactive engagement with governments and communities to steer AI’s evolution toward greater good.

- The conversation opens with a reflection on Doge from Elon Musk’s perspective. Musk says the Doge government project was “a little a little bit successful” and claims they “stopped a lot of funding for that… that really just made no sense,” noting that 2–3% of government payments were unnecessarily sent without proper codes or explanations, which made stopping the waste difficult. - When asked if he would do Doge again, Musk says no, and suggests that instead of Doge he would have worked in his companies and not had the cars running. - On irrational fears, Musk says he tries not to have irrational fears and squelches any he identifies. - If starting from scratch today with a thousand dollars, Musk recalls originally coming to North America with about 2,500 Canadian dollars (roughly $2 US) and says that with the knowledge he has now, it would require Armageddon or a terminal failure of civilization for that scenario to be plausible again; otherwise he could recruit funding based on the high returns he can promise. - In the Katie Miller podcast episode, the host takes Musk back to January 20 (in the Roosevelt Room) and asks what happened next with Doge. Musk explains Doge stemmed from Internet suggestions; it was initially intended to call the Government Efficiency Commission, but the Internet suggested Department of Government Efficiency, DOGE. - On success, Musk reiterates they were “a little… somewhat successful,” citing the elimination of wasteful payments and the example of eliminating a large portion of zombie payments through requiring a payment code and explanation. - Would Musk start Doge again from scratch or know what he knows now? He says no, and notes that rather than Doge, he would focus on his companies and avoid the funding backlash from stopping money flows to political corruption. - After DC experiences, Musk expresses that the aim is the least government intervention possible, but he highlights a major concern: large transfer payments to illegal immigrants, arguing that citizenship fast-tracking and government payments create a powerful pull factor, effectively “voter importation.” - On AI, Musk believes AI and robotics will eventually provide all goods and services, making work optional; he distinguishes his predicted outcomes from what he wishes would happen, acknowledging the rapid pace of AI advancement and the difficulty in slowing it. - Sleep and routine: Musk averages about six hours of sleep per night; he tracks sleep using ex-posts and a phone app, finding five hours fifty-six minutes as a recent average. He emphasizes information triage and minimizing context switching to manage inbound communications across Tesla, SpaceX, X (Twitter), and personal matters. - On people and leadership, Musk describes President Trump as very funny and “naturally funny,” and says the funniest person he knows in real life is Trump who can be effortless in humor. - God and religion: Musk says God is the creator and acknowledges that the universe came from something, noting that people have different labels. - About space, Musk emphasizes Starship’s potential for full and rapid reusability and calls life becoming multi-planetary one of the top evolutionary milestones, alongside multicellular life and life branching from oceans to land. He states Starship is capable of enabling sustainable multiplanetary life, with Starship not using AI in its creation. - He clarifies that Tesla and X AI both contribute to improving life on Earth, and stresses that Mars would be dangerous and uncomfortable in early days; it would be risky with high chances of death, and early settlers would face hardship rather than an escape from Earth. - On Starbase, Musk describes it as an inspirational city and a rocket factory by the Rio Grande on a sandbar; Starbase is legally incorporated as a city with tax-exempt status, a milestone akin to Disney World as a company town. He notes Cape Canaveral proximity and recalls visiting Disney World multiple times with his kids; Space Mountain is his favorite ride but could use an upgrade. - On fashion, Musk laments that styles have not evolved much since 2010–2015 and argues for more distinctive, era-defining fashion—suggesting higher collars, bolder silhouettes, and more personality in wardrobe. - Conspiracy theories: Musk says he hasn’t seen evidence of aliens; he does confirm that Neil Armstrong and others walked on the Moon and jokes that they even played golf there. He notes there is gravity on the Moon (one-sixth) and that there is no atmosphere. - The biggest misconception about Musk: the general belief that he is a difficult boss; he counters with praise for the mission-driven loyalty of his employees and characterizes his workplaces as highly inspirational. - On Starbase’s origin, he reveals the desire to create something inspirational and notes Starbase’s proximity to Disney World as part of the branding and cultural context. - For a hypothetical dinner party, Musk names Shakespeare, Ben Franklin, and Nikola Tesla, and envisions a grand 12-course meal; he jokes about possibly including a tiny cheeseburger as one course. - Closing note: the episode wraps with thanks and a tease for the next installment.

Let's discuss AI. OpenAI was founded to counterbalance Google and DeepMind, which dominated AI talent and resources. Initially intended to be open source, it has become a closed-source, profit-driven entity. The recent ousting of Sam Altman raises concerns, especially since Ilya, who has a strong moral compass, felt compelled to act. It’s unclear why this decision was made, and it either indicates a serious issue or the board should resign. My own AI efforts have been cautious due to the potential risks involved. While I believe AI could significantly change the world, it also poses dangers. The concept of artificial general intelligence (AGI) is advancing rapidly, and I estimate we could see machines outperforming humans in creative and scientific fields within three years.

"We're walking into this future, no one's in control, no one knows what's going on, and we're just flying by the seat of our pants." "The technology is improving faster than we can comprehend." "If we find some kind of arrangement where AI is not threatening to the human race, the intelligence economy that they build could grow at this insane speed where a month passes and we experience like a hundred years of technological progress." "the I don't know, those are like the three hardest words for a human to say." "Privacy, as you said, is dead." "the next few years, the amount of evolution we're going to see in the next five, ten years is equal to what? The last thousand years." "we're sleepwalking into the abyss or into the unknown." "I don't think we're doing enough." "the only thing that I know is I don't wanna die right now." "funeral like sobriety."

"My main mission now is to warn people how dangerous AI could be." "Did you know that when you became the godfather of AI? No, not really." "I was quite slow to understand some of the risks." "Some of the risks were always very obvious, like people would use AI to make autonomous lethal weapons." "That is things that go around deciding by themselves who to kill." "Other risks, like the idea that they would one day get smarter than us and maybe would become irrelevant, I was slow to recognize that." "Other people recognized it twenty years ago." "I only recognized a few years ago that that was a real risk that was might be coming quite soon."

It's difficult to prevent corruption, even with higher salaries, because insider trading can be so lucrative. People justify taking questionable actions for their families, especially when it's legal. If you're involved in passing a bill and know how it will affect certain industries, buying stock beforehand seems logical. However, the problem goes beyond just stock portfolios; there are other, less traceable methods of wealth acquisition. Honestly, discussing these topics is dangerous. I have to be careful not to push too hard on the corruption issue because it could put my life at risk.