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Dr. Martinson says the energy crisis is the worst he and others have experienced, and he has been “sounding the alarm” about oil. He notes that major oil company CEOs and oil executives have told the White House that conditions are “about at tank bottoms” and “really urgent.” He references recent changes in U.S. actions, including a moment when Trump said he would call off strikes and there would be a deal, after earlier comments about renewed strikes. Martinson argues that even if a deal happens immediately, the damage is already done: “1.2 billion barrels has already gone missing in action,” creating a gap that cannot be fully refilled. He says the aftermath will require logistics to be repaired, tanker ships to be repositioned, bar nacles removed, tanker crews to get rest time, oil fields restarted, and damaged infrastructure rebuilt. He emphasizes that oil follows fundamental economics—supply, demand, and price—describing it as the “PQ chart” where “Price, quantity, demand, supply” fit together. He agrees that high prices signal people to use less, but he says the current situation instead involves artificially low prices encouraging consumption of diesel, jet fuel, and gasoline. He states that everyone familiar with oil markets says the price is “way too low,” keeping demand high and supply low. To manage the gap, Martinson says the United States is “busy eating into” strategic reserves and commercial reserves, with other countries doing the same. He calls this a “ticking clock” and says continued reserve drawdown leads to a supply shortfall. He predicts that tank shortages will follow, comparing the situation to “COVID all over again,” and he describes how it could lead to chaotic rationing or bureaucratic disputes over who receives diesel, with some people being treated as “essential.” He concludes that “one does not simply go forth and start monkeying with energy,” calling it the “master resource” that drives how the economy moves and organizes, and he predicts a “hot mess” response from state and federal governments.

Oil and gas prices in the United States and Europe are expected to rise sharply, driven by limits in crude-oil logistics and by OPEC+ supply shortfalls that the U.S. cannot fully offset. The transcript begins with reported jumps in U.S. fuel prices. Diesel rises steadily after the Iran war, and gasoline moves upward, then takes a major jump in 2026 (noted as $425 per gallon as of April 6, with forecasts to reach $440). The central claim is that prices will continue climbing because export demand and shipping flows will tighten effective supply. A key point discussed is tanker traffic and export capacity. The speaker references Trump’s claim about “massive numbers” of “completely empty oil tankers” heading to the U.S. to load “sweetest” oil and gas. The transcript argues that the tanker map can be misleading because tankers travel both ways, but it notes that large crude carriers (up to about 2 million barrels each) routinely head to and from the U.S. It also claims that while U.S. exports rise through end of March into April to near 5 million barrels per day, the system is constrained: overall export levels are described as hovering under about 4 million barrels per day, and can increase by roughly 1 million barrels per day mainly due to logistical limits at ports and loading berths. However, the transcript says the U.S. cannot replace the missing supply from OPEC+: OPEC+ is said to have reduced production by about 8 million barrels per day, and the U.S. “is not going to be able to cover that shortfall.” The transcript then emphasizes “stocks and flows” using U.S. EIA accounting: inventories (“stocks”) and incoming supply (“supply”). It states that the U.S. remains a net importer of crude oil. It reports imports of about 6.3 million barrels per day and exports of about 4.1 million barrels per day, leaving a net import of about 2.175 million barrels per day during the week prior to April 3. The speaker argues that the U.S. is not exporting crude oil on a net basis. A major source of confusion is said to be how the EIA labels “petroleum,” allegedly conflating crude oil with other “natural gas plant liquids” (NGLs) and other components. The transcript describes U.S. “other supply” as roughly 10 million barrels per day, largely NGLs, plus renewable fuels such as corn-based ethanol. It claims that while these categories contribute to “petroleum” exports, they are not the same as crude oil exports. NGLs are explained in detail by molecule type: ethane (about 40% of total volume) used mainly as an industrial feedstock for plastics and petrochemicals; propane (about 30%) used for heating/cooking and as LPG; and butane/isobutane (together making up most of the remainder) used in applications like lighters, rubber/synthetic products, and LPG conversions. The transcript stresses that NGLs have different end uses and cannot substitute for “oil” grades needed by refineries for gasoline, diesel, jet fuel, and other outputs. The strategic petroleum reserve (SPR) is also discussed. The transcript states that SPR was “mostly drained” before the 2022 election and currently provides about 248,000 barrels per day over the last week, which it says is not enough to offset losses claimed elsewhere. The transcript describes SPR as oil stored in underground salt caverns and claims SPR contains no natural gas plant liquids. The transcript links refining constraints to oil grade differences. It argues that refineries are tuned to particular “API gravity” ranges and that crude grades differ in their proportions of gasoline, jet fuel, diesel, and heavier “bunker” fuel. It claims medium sour grades were drawn down from SPR first, while light sweet grades have been less replenished. It also claims U.S. shale produces lighter crude (about the 40–50 API range), which yields more gasoline proportionally but lacks some heavier components needed for ships and asphalt, so the U.S. exports the lighter grades and imports heavier grades. As a consequence, the transcript argues that when the U.S. increases exports—even by about 1 million barrels per day—this output comes from inventory drawdowns, tightening stocks and pushing prices higher. It also claims that inventories in gasoline and jet fuel are near the lower end of a range (gasoline described as in the bottom fifth), and that jet kerosene has been declining through the year. Finally, the transcript highlights claimed disruptions in the Persian Gulf beyond crude oil itself, including missing chemical/product flows and petrochemical impacts. It asserts that these supply-chain disruptions do not have an easy workaround, and it concludes that the situation could worsen quickly as exports pull down inventories and as the gap between oil futures prices and real market prices “resets” during the continued closure of the conflict region.

There is an old joke that goes God created war so that Americans would learn geography. In 2026, they seem to be learning it the hard way. They’ve discovered that 10,900 kilometers from Washington DC lies the Strait of Hormuz, the world’s most critical choke point, a narrow strip of water between the Persian Gulf and the Gulf of Oman that stretches 167 kilometers in length, narrows to just 34 kilometers at its tightest point, and carries roughly 30,000 vessels a year. Around a fifth of the world’s traded oil and LNG flows through this corridor on normal days. Most of that oil heads to Asia, but oil prices don’t respect geography. They’re set globally. So when West Asia sneezes, fuel prices spike everywhere. Oil is only the start. Over 30% of global ammonia trade, nearly half of urea, and 20% of diammonium phosphate, key fertilizer inputs, move through this same choke point, along with about half the world’s sulfur for metal processing. If the sulfur didn’t arrive, the factory was shut down. It didn’t arrive because of the war and because the Strait of Hormuz was closed. Unlike oil, these can’t be rerouted. There are no pipelines for ammonia or urea. If Hormuz closes, the nitrogen supply chain doesn’t slow. It stops. And since synthetic nitrogen fertilizers support roughly 48% of the global population, missing the mid April application window in the Northern Hemisphere means lower yields by September. Major importers like India, Brazil, Pakistan, Bangladesh, and many African countries would quickly face fertilizer shortages, leading to higher food prices, inflation, and a widespread food security crisis affecting billions. 85% of Brazil’s fertilizer is imported. And under these conditions, we can only bring part of the land under cultivation. Meanwhile, about a third of the world’s helium, critical for semiconductors and MRIs, passes through these strait. So does nearly 10% of global aluminum and a significant share of Persian Gulf produced plastics. Even the Persian Gulf states themselves are exposed. This passage is their food lifeline. The biggest one, Saudi Arabia, imports over 80% of its food. The smallest one, Qatar, 85%. If the strait stays closed for another month or two, the food situation here is gonna get really critical. If anyone thinks the so called first world would be immune, the reality says otherwise. Since the war began, Brent crude has swung from $73 to nearly $120 at one point, adding about €500,000,000 per day in EU energy costs. In late April, the IEA warned Europe may have only six weeks of jet fuel left as West Asian imports falter. Prices have surged past $1,500 per ton. The IEA calls this “the greatest energy crisis in history.” By April 22, Lufthansa had canceled 20,000 flights with more disruptions and price hikes expected. In Germany, the industrial heart of Europe, 78.6% of firms report uncertainty about their future, rising to 87.7% in manufacturing and over 90% in chemicals, rubber, and plastics. The US isn’t insulated either. Gas prices jumped more than $1 per gallon in just six weeks, surpassing $4.10, the highest level since 2022, while the Hormuz shock fuels inflation. They said the consumer price index rose 0.9% in March, almost 1% in just one month. I haven’t seen a jump like that in years. Meanwhile, a Reuters/Ipsos poll put Trump’s approval rating at 36%, its lowest since his return to office. Forty-eight hours into the Iran war, marine insurers began canceling war risk coverage in the Persian Gulf. By March 5, commercial insurance had effectively vanished. No insurance means no shipping. No shipping means no trade. This isn’t a new insight. Back in 1507, Portuguese admiral Alfonso de Albuquerque understood that Whoever controls this choke point controls the flow between India and the Mediterranean. And by extension, global trade itself. So far, the largest empire in history finds itself with remarkably little to say against one of the oldest. Perhaps this time, the Americans picked the wrong country to learn geography.

- Speaker 0 notes that vaccines and boosters are readily available, testing has been dramatically scaled with millions of rapid tests, and that 82 percent of adult Americans have taken the vaccine. He states that those not vaccinated are nine times more likely to be hospitalized or die from the virus, and emphasizes that the country is in a different place than a year ago, with ongoing work to fight the virus. - On the strategic petroleum reserve (SPR), Speaker 0 explains that the release totals 50,000,000 barrels, with 18,000,000 already congressionally required and accelerated by the president to provide immediate relief. The remaining 32,000,000 comes from an exchange, putting barrels on the market now in exchange for their return in the future. He describes the exchange as a tool matched to the current economic environment and notes the aim to lower costs for the American people, particularly gas prices ahead of the holiday season, while acknowledging the pandemic’s impact on the global cost of goods and gas. He also mentions pressing OPEC+ to increase supply and using every tool at the administration’s disposal to help working families. - When pressed about the 50,000,000 barrels figure, Speaker 0 refrains from further detail beyond the explanation that 18,000,000 were congressionally required and the rest come from the exchange arrangement. - On China, Speaker 0 clarifies that the president did not intend to separate China publicly, saying China may do more, but the president does not want to speak for any country. He notes that the president has had conversations with other countries and that the national security team has communicated with them; announcements will be made by those countries themselves. Speaker 1 asks whether the president spoke with Xi Jinping; Speaker 0 confirms they did talk, as referenced in a readout issued afterward, and that the president asked China to discuss helping with supply, without detailing further. - Regarding Ukraine, Speaker 1 asks for updates on White House assessments and plans for a possible phone call with President Putin. Speaker 0 says there is nothing to preview at this time, but reiterates that the United States remains in very close contact with European partners.

Xu Qinhua, host of Dialogue at CGTN, joined Glenn to discuss Donald Trump’s meeting with Xi Jinping in Beijing on 05/14/2026, including the atmosphere, objectives, and key issues shaping China–U.S. relations. Xu Qinhua said the day’s atmosphere was “very positive.” Trump was impressed by the welcoming ceremony, reviewing the ceremonial guards with Xi Jinping, visits to the Temple of Heaven, and a state banquet. The leaders spent the morning in discussions with their teams, then met at the Temple of Heaven in the afternoon. In the evening, they attended a state banquet hosted by the presidency. Xi Jinping’s speech emphasized that China–U.S. should be “partners rather than rivals,” while Trump’s warm response highlighted shared values between Chinese and Americans and referenced long engagement between the peoples over about 250 years. Trump cited early U.S. contact with China in 1784, including the arrival of a U.S. ship, Chinese terms for newcomers, Chinese workers helping link the Pacific and Atlantic through a continental railroad, the establishment of Tsinghua University, U.S.-China allied cooperation during World War II, and Confucius being respected in the U.S. Xu Qinhua said both sides agreed on a vision described as “strategic constructive… strategic stability” to guide the relationship for the next three years or even beyond. Glenn raised the broader concern that Trump’s administrations, and more broadly U.S. views that China is the main peer rival, often place China in the spotlight. He referenced Xi Jinping’s idea of overcoming the “Thucydides’ trap” and asked about prospects for easing the economic war shaped by trade, technology, and tariffs. Xu Qinhua said Xi Jinping meant overcoming the trap and setting a new model for major-power relationships. Xu described China and the U.S. as peers in terms of economy, high-tech development, innovation, and military capabilities, arguing that how they handle the relationship affects not only both countries but global stability. He said trade used to serve as a “ballast” stabilizer because of investment and exports, but the relationship is now again at a challenging time involving trade war, tech war, and tariffs. Xu said both sides were discussing the possibility of a “new model” of coexistence, emphasizing “cooperation” and limiting “zero sum” thinking. Glenn asked what specific issues must be resolved, including whether the focus is tariffs, chip export limitations, or China’s willingness to export rare earths, and noted U.S. interest in Chinese purchases of U.S. energy and agriculture. Xu Qinhua responded that they were discussing building a “border for trade” and a “board of investment” to institutionalize dialogues and communications to address individual issues regularly rather than in isolated cases. Xu said from China’s perspective the trade war has brought suffering to both sides; China’s exports continued to grow even as U.S. tariff efforts did not stop Chinese exports. Xu said the Chinese side was pragmatic about expanding trade in areas that are not sensitive, such as advanced chips, and that U.S. companies could be willing to sell items like oil, agriculture products (including soybeans and beef), and Boeing airplanes if trade targets fall outside high-tech and national-security sensitivities. He said China’s theme is cooperation-focused “strategic stability,” with limited competition, and communication across multiple areas including military and trade. Xu argued trade itself is mutually beneficial and that trade imbalance is not the real issue, tying underlying concerns to the U.S. role as the supplier of the major reserve currency. On energy security, Glenn described U.S. efforts to reduce exports from key energy exporters and replace them with U.S. supplies, including claims about Europe after Nord Stream and a push for U.S. centrality in energy infrastructure and sales. Xu Qinhua said China has concern about over-reliance on U.S. oil and LNG and forming reliance on the U.S. market amid negative U.S. media coverage and low trust. He said China has diversified exports to ASEAN, Southeast Asia, African countries, Latin America, and European markets, and diversified energy sources so reliance on a single source is usually not over 20%, with oil and gas coming from Russia, Iran, Saudi Arabia, Brazil, Ghana, among others. Xu said China is rapidly developing renewable energy (EVs, solar panels, and wind turbines), investing in nuclear power plants under construction, and also has coal resources and technology to transform coal into gas so that coal can provide electricity in worst-case scenarios. He linked this to energy security being both about sufficient supply and access to energy resources globally. Glenn raised Taiwan as a central security issue and asked how central it was in talks and whether a reduced-tension common meeting point existed. Xu Qinhua said Xi Jinping raised Taiwan as expected in discussions with Trump, calling it the most important issue between China and the U.S. and warning that mishandling it could put the overall relationship in jeopardy. Xu said the Chinese side increased the volume and severity of its messaging, warning that Taiwan separatist activity threatens regional peace and stability; Xu said arms sales to Taiwan embolden secessionists and create security risks. Xu said the U.S. “one China” principle has been hollowed out, citing that while a 1982 communiqué foundation includes that the U.S. would reduce arms sales until zero, Xu claimed the U.S. has increased arms sales to Taiwan. Xu argued that if Washington truly cared about peace, it would make clear to separatists that it opposes Taiwan independence and support peaceful reunification efforts, which Xu said would remove a persistent irritant and allow cooperation on issues such as AI governance and crises including the Strait of Hormuz and Ukraine. Xu added that even with U.S. intervention, Taiwan purchases of arms would not match Mainland capabilities, and he said U.S. support for separatists would fail to slow China’s modernization. Glenn asked about Iran and the Strait of Hormuz as an issue discussed between Xi and Trump. Xu Qinhua said the leaders’ discussions covered the Iranian crisis. Xu said some U.S. media coverage claimed Trump should pressure China to pressure the Iranians, but Xu said the “wrong approach” would be pressure from Washington; Xu said Beijing has nothing to do with the crisis and that the crisis is tied to a war launched by Washington and the Israelis without UN authorization, without proper explanation, and without legitimacy. Xu said China and the U.S. share some common interest in opening the Strait of Hormuz because Gulf nations’ exports rely on it and because China purchases about 50–40% of its energy from the region. Xu said Washington would need to restrain demands, respect the fact that it launched the war and failed to achieve its goals, and accept reality, while the Chinese side would help seek a long-term deal and stable relationship between the U.S. and Iran. Xu said the U.S. side had not been seen as earnest or faithful in resolving the problem. When Glenn asked how this aligns with a common stance that Iran should not have nuclear weapons, Xu Qinhua said he did not see tensions upcoming between China and Iran. Xu said multiple oil tankers were navigating the Strait of Hormuz with limited disruption, and that about 90% of Iranian oil exports go to China, meaning there is no point for China to ask for tolls on tankers destined for China. Xu said if Iranian control or tolls occur, China would not oppose, especially if the U.S. refuses compromise, refuses to lift sanctions, and does not allow normal business with other countries. Xu described the key issue as how long the U.S. will tolerate inflationary pressure and how the U.S. continues its approach against what he characterized as an Iranian blockade against the U.S. blockade. In closing, Glenn asked whether the meeting would produce a “grand bargain” or only minor tweaks to resolve disputes. Xu Qinhua said the encounter was significant, not only between the leaders but also because top executives mingled and talked, which Xu said could increase understanding and opportunities for engagement that had been absent for nine years or longer. Xu said 2026 could be a milestone year for China–U.S. relations due to frequent future meeting opportunities: Trump’s invitation for Xi to visit the U.S. in late September, plus further opportunities on the sidelines of APEC in Shenzhen and the G20 summit in the U.S. Xu said they had found the “right approach” of constructive strategic stability with cooperation-focused limited competition, moving away from zero-sum mentality, which Xu said could benefit both sides and the world.

The discussion says a “silver lining” of the situation is that it shows how energy is generated and why changes take time: long supply chains and complex sequences of events must occur not only for oil to flow but also for supporting infrastructure such as natural gas. The guest argues that people underestimate recovery time. Even if political steps are announced—such as an agreement with Iran being finalized and the Strait being opened immediately—the effects are not immediate. The guest explains that, as seen during COVID, the supply chain operates with a month-long pipeline of material and “months of inventory” and “cushion.” When oil stops, the rise in prices happens right away because markets anticipate the effects, but the cushion delays the full impact. Restarting oil would take months before output returns close to pre-shutdown levels. The guest adds that inventories and storage “cushion” are becoming more visible in the news and anticipates that in June there will be a “freakout” about how inventories work. A second major point is that assumptions about how quickly oil prices return may be wrong. The guest says negotiations are being framed around Iran returning oil prices to where they were on February 27, and that this is a “giant political assumption.” The guest claims Iran has learned it can “beat the United States,” gain power, and gain money when oil prices rise, benefitting not only itself but also others such as Putin. The guest says rivals harmed by high oil prices—such as Saudi Arabia and UAE—are part of the picture as well. The guest concludes that Iran may not aim for a price around $55–$60 per barrel and instead may be content with higher prices, suggesting Iran could be “very happy” with $90, $95, or $100 oil “for a long period of time.” Returning to the “ordinary person,” the guest says the public notices gas prices rising and expects negotiations to deliver lower prices, but argues that the actual price of oil is not being directly negotiated or addressed publicly. The guest states that what the public would want is a clear agreement stating a current Brent crude price (e.g., $98 per barrel) would drop to a specified lower figure (e.g., $58). The guest emphasizes that the parties “like the money.”

- Speaker 0 notes that the United States Postal Service is adding a fuel charge to every package due to fuel cost increases tied to Iran–Israel tensions and says fuel costs have jumped more than 30% since the war began. - Reuters/Financial Times mention: US inflation to surge to 4.2% on energy shock; OECD warnings. Fuel lines are long worldwide, with coverage of shortages in Slovenia, parts of Europe, Australia, Thailand, and the Philippines; some countries have run out of petrol or declared a state of emergency. - Speaker 1 paraphrases Putin, saying the energy shock from the Iran war is devastating globally, harming global logistic and production chains and the fuel industry. He claims Europe will beg Russia for oil and gas, referencing a pipeline blown up by the United States. - Mike Adams (Speaker 2, Health Ranger) joins to discuss fuel and food shortages and global impacts. He asserts: energy is the primary driver of affordable food, transportation, and personal freedom; farming is hydrocarbon-intensive due to energy inputs for fertilizer and for planting/harvesting; the Strait of Hormuz constriction worsens scarcity. He argues the Strait was open before the war and that actions against Nord Stream pipelines and the Strait have created energy constraints, predicting severe economic and food shortages until Hormuz reopens. - Speaker 3 (a senator) is shown commenting on the war costs ($2,000,000,000 daily) and casualties; notes that policy decisions and actions have led to escalating prices and potential long-term impacts on Americans. - Speaker 4 and Speaker 2 discuss a pattern of energy lockdowns, global shortages, and potential government controls: universal basic income (UBI) tied to digital control via a CBDC, with quotas on food and energy consumption; off-ramps include off-grid solar power and EV adoption. They suggest this could lead to government-delivered food and fuel, and to a broader move toward centralized control. - The conversation covers the European angle: Putin and the diplomats say Europe may beg Russia for cheap energy as Nord Stream pipelines were disrupted; China–Russia energy deals and Mongolia–Northern China gas transmission are noted as supporting Chinese industry. - Speaker 4 observes European leadership as having pursued energy restrictions and nuclear shutdowns, calling it “energy suicide” and expressing sympathy for European people, while criticizing their leaders for energy policy. - Speaker 2 discusses the petrodollar system’s fragility, noting potential shifts as allies and non-allies trade outside the petrodollar; warns of inflationary effects on the U.S. and potential mass selling of U.S. Treasuries by indebted economies like Japan. - The discussion touches on broader implications: a potential shift toward AI and robotics replacing human labor, with energy scarcity viewed as a driver for social and economic controls; concerns about large-scale power disruptions and rationing, and the possibility of a 10-year horizon for significant changes in labor and energy policy. - In closing, Mike Adams emphasizes the need for viewers to be informed and distinguishes between differing levels of information sources, inviting continued engagement.

Steven Shork says energy markets are driven by the physical realities of supply disruptions and logistics rather than headline-driven narratives. He describes a market dislocation that began at the end of February, when events around the Strait of Hormuz caused immediate reactions in oil derivatives, including NYMEX WTI and ICE Brent, while the Atlantic Basin was still supplied and therefore saw more muted impact initially. He argues that the most acute panic showed up among Asian refiners, who buy crude oil, not among traders who mainly trade derivatives. Shork contrasts “political price” in the prompt futures markets—with large speculators potentially reacting to news and social media—with “real market” conditions reflected in physical freight and risk. He emphasizes that when uncertainty rises around passage through the Strait, tanker charter costs, insurance rates, bunker fuel, and other logistics costs rise, forcing sellers to price crude based on the higher cost of moving it. He says the Strait-linked disruption plus Europe’s reduced access to tanker transit (he cites about 70 vessels losing transit access) created supply disruption and price pressure, while sanctions relief for Russia (and strategic petroleum reserve releases in Europe and the United States) worked to reduce panic by improving supply availability. He also claims the market’s behavior is inconsistent with the physical magnitude of the disruption: he says the globe has effectively lost around a billion barrels of oil since the conflict began (noting some of that has been masked by weak seasonal demand early in the year). As demand moves toward summer peak in June, Shork highlights a “make-or-break” period. He describes shifting global trade patterns as the United States becomes the marginal producer, with vessels and cargo flow shifting toward the US Gulf Coast export markets (Houston and Corpus Christi) to access US barrels, along with stepped-up supply from other Western Hemisphere producers such as Guyana and Brazil. He says this does not replace the roughly 15 million barrels per day he says have gone missing, but it helps “mill” price pressure. A key claim is that “headline resolution” is not matched by “risk resolution.” Shork repeatedly argues: “Price is suspended, the risk isn’t.” He addresses reports that President Trump expects a deal with Iran within days, and he says the weakness in oil is “nonsensical” given the ongoing physical constraints and logistics bottlenecks. Shork also describes a bifurcated market: futures markets appear to assume a quick resolution, while physical dislocations (tankers and insurance) suggest normalization would be delayed, potentially until the end of the year. To explain what would convince him that resolution is becoming real, Shork focuses on two diagnostics: (1) spreads/differentials across benchmarks (such as Oman/Dubai vs. Brent) and (2) the forward curve shape. He says a healthy market tends to show backwardation, but when backwardation reflects not only convenience yield but also fear of supply cutoff, it creates large differentials—he cites roughly $20–$25 per barrel between near-term and later delivery months (he includes a comparison between next month and 2027). He says he wants to see regression toward a more normalized forward curve and reduced stress in logistics pricing, including tanker chartering costs and freight insurance costs. Shork argues that Iran’s approach is not fully about closing the Strait, but about leveraging choke-point economics through financial blockade mechanisms affecting insurance. He says insurance markets reacted immediately when the blockade began (he dates the war as February 27) and that ships are already being attacked. He describes a scenario where, even if ships can transit physically, insurance risk pricing still raises the all-in cost enough to “queer” the economics of shipping and keep barrels from being moved. When asked whether the “Hormuz” issue is the true core or whether it is about Iran’s nuclear program, Shork says he goes with the nuclear program. He connects Iran’s pursuit of nuclear capability with the broader impact on global risk, including recognized links between Iran and regional armed groups, and he argues that Iran’s internal oil investment neglect and diversion of resources to the nuclear program and broader networks leave Iran unable to fully benefit from oil output. He says Iran and its choke-point position can lose leverage over time as the world adapts and finds alternatives. He cites infrastructure changes that he says reduce the importance of the Strait, including the UAE dropping out of OPEC and doubling pipeline capacity to bypass the Strait, and Saudi Arabia already increasing pipelines crossing the desert to Red Sea export facilities. Shork says this adaptation will encourage investment and supply growth across regions including Eastern Africa, West Africa, and South America (Guyana and Brazil), and also in the United States. Shork also discusses tanker-market signaling as a leading indicator for demand. He says the high daily cost of tankers translates into higher required selling prices for crude, and rising insurance and logistics costs amplify that. On reports about Iranian frozen funds, he says that if sanctions are lifted and Iran’s crude returns, futures could be supported via the supply-demand expectation channel. He provides a price reference from the NYMEX WTI spot market, saying prices had dipped to about $85.95 and later rose toward the high-$80s/near $90, with a rally occurring on headlines including an Apache helicopter being shot down and possible US reaction. In his view, however, underlying market signals and the behavior of key players (including the UAE’s actions) matter more than single headlines. He concludes that markets may be pricing wishful thinking around rapid resolution, while physical conditions and shipping/insurance constraints remain. He says it “doesn’t make sense” that so much risk has been taken only to return to February status quo, implying that even if headlines point to peace, the market’s assumptions may not match how long de-risking and normalization would take.

**Original Language Summary:** उस समय रूस से तेल न लेने का दबाव था। तेल न लेने पर खाड़ी और अफ्रीका के देशों से तेल लेना पड़ता, जिससे तेल की कीमतें बढ़ जातीं। अगर सप्लाई कम हो जाती तो ₹100 लीटर का तेल ₹125 का हो जाता। प्रधानमंत्री से स्पष्ट निर्देश थे कि भारत के कंज्यूमर का हित केंद्र में रखा जाए। **English Translation:** At that time, there was pressure not to take oil from Russia. If oil was not taken from Russia, it would have to be taken from the Gulf and African countries, which would have increased oil prices. If the supply decreased, oil that cost ₹100 per liter would cost ₹125. There were clear instructions from the Prime Minister to keep the interests of the Indian consumer at the center.

The Ukraine war caused an immediate increase in petrol and oil prices, creating a moment of choice for some countries. Powerful countries, being customers of Russia, began buying in the Gulf and Middle East, which were suppliers to other nations. This caused the suppliers to raise their prices. In this situation, one can either prioritize their own interests and have the courage to act accordingly, or succumb to the influence of powerful countries.

The speaker argues that oil is “unlimited,” stating that Middle Eastern people have messaged after the speaker posted a video claiming “everything’s unlimited.” They sent a video in Arabic in which a person explains that oil is unlimited because it has been sold for a long time and that all that is required is to drill to find oil. The speaker says oil producers “manipulate the price” and claim that “our pumps are running dry.” They add that oil-rig workers reportedly return to the same pump that was said to have run dry because they believe the narrative, and that a week later the rig is ready again, producing oil because “oil is the blood of the earth.”

The discussion highlights physical and political constraints affecting global oil and LNG supply. There are only a limited number of tankers and LNG tankers worldwide, and a large portion are currently stuck in the Persian Gulf—almost 1,600 of them. Because of this, refilling and restoring normal operations will take time: ships must be refilled, then transportation must resume, and the pipeline “will take months to actually fill in,” reflecting both logistical delays and the physical constraints of the tanker fleet. Alongside the physical issues, the discussion adds politics. It states that there is no evidence Iran would allow oil to go through with the intention of pushing oil prices back close to what they were before the war. The discussion draws an example from Vladimir Putin’s situation: Putin had been selling oil at about a $25-per-barrel level even when oil was going for $55 due to the discount required for China, and it then notes that Putin later moved to full price. The discussion then argues that Iran will similarly discover more reasons over time to want more money, framing this as a common pattern over time—people find additional reasons to need incremental increases in returns. It concludes that Iran is expected to be “in a similar boat,” seeking additional money as time progresses.

The Trump administration linked higher tariffs to India's continued purchase of Russian oil, which Washington says funds Moscow's war in Ukraine. US-India trade talks have hit a deadlock over agriculture and dairy produce. Prime Minister Narendra Modi says he is not prepared to compromise on the interests of his farmers.

Ashton Rutansi introduces New Order’s first season finale, arguing that India and its allies sit at the center of a wider transformation in world history as conflicts and geopolitical pressure spread beyond West Asia. Rutansi describes the BRICS foreign ministers meeting in Delhi under India’s 2026 chairmanship, with senior officials from the UAE, China, Russia, and Iran in attendance. He also links India’s diplomacy—Prime Minister Modi touring the UAE and Europe—with the need to balance energy security, trade stability, Western partnerships, and global South leadership. Rutansi frames the situation as sensitive due to Iran’s demands for stronger BRICS political backing against US and Israeli violations of the UN Charter, amid Saudi Arabia and the UAE attempting to avoid direct confrontation. Rutansi interviews international relations scholar Professor Richard Sakwa. Asked whether a unipolar order is ending in real time, Sakwa says the unipolar model has been on its way out and is giving way to unilateralism in the United States, producing what he calls the “twilight” of the Atlantic/Political West. He argues that multipolarity is only a symptom and that the alternative model aligns with UN norms, international law, and the post-1945 international system, which he says the Political West challenged while it still held power. On global war, Sakwa says the Russo-Ukrainian war has become a Russo-European war and Europe is experiencing “war fever,” comparing the language to the atmosphere before World War I. He says commentators argue the West is in the thick of it, but that “we’re only in the foothills,” and that the global South has more balanced talk. Rutansi highlights European resistance to diplomacy and questions the impact of weapons and sanctions. Sakwa says the EU is adopting its twentieth sanctions package and working on a twenty-first, noting they are running out of “things to sanction” but “digging and digging their heels in.” He adds that US sanctions under Trump after an Alaska meeting in August 2025 affected Russian oil exports and deeply impacted India, while sanctions dependence persists. Sakwa responds that many countries, including China, can withstand tariffs and sanctions; he contrasts China’s scale with India’s vulnerability given reliance on imported oil, including from the Gulf. He notes Russia’s survival under heavy sanctions while taking a “very heavy toll.” On whether India exemplifies successful multipolar power, Sakwa is skeptical of the term multipolarity and argues the UN Charter system and postwar decolonization have matured into a “multiplex world,” where many states—including middle powers such as Brazil, South Africa, Nigeria, the Philippines, Indonesia, and others—refuse being “bossed around” by a traditional hegemon. He emphasizes that international organizations and corporations also function as quasi-state actors, and he argues Western arrogance about being hegemonic has not matured. Rutansi raises criticism that the UN has struggled to act during a Gaza genocide and discusses an alleged UN leadership role of Annalena Baerbock. Sakwa calls the UN’s crisis its most desperate stage since 1945, argues that the solution is to double down to support the UN rather than dismiss it, and says India should be an essential permanent member. He also suggests resetting elements of the UN system by adding Brazil, India, and other countries—especially Africa—as permanent Security Council members. Later, Sakwa discusses NATO and US participation, saying the United States has historically retained autonomy and that Trump has left dozens of international organizations, including UN agencies such as the World Health Organization. Sakwa says the US “go[es] it alone,” meeting China as equals and that US-India relations have faced the most difficult period in decades amid sanctions and threats. Rutansi asks about whether human rights “weaponization” will continue, including references to freedom of expression in Western Europe and Sakwa’s detention at Heathrow on June 13, 2025. Sakwa says he was detained under the 2019 Counterterrorism Act and that refusing to answer or saying “no comment” could be taken as indicating guilt, allowing arrest. He describes questioning as a “fishing expedition,” says his views are open to debate, and says the case later went quiet. Sakwa argues that Western Europe exhibits groupthink, permanent war, militarism, remilitarization, and “profound Russophobia,” and he says global South countries increasingly treat US and European actions with contempt. He also argues secondary sanctions are irresponsible and illegal, and that attempts to defend international law by undermining it create double standards. The show then shifts to viewer questions via Zara Khan (Azarakan). One asks how to stop the US and Israel from mass killings; Khan and Rutansi respond by identifying complicit states and supply chain links, including countries Rutansi lists as providing Israeli weaponry, warplane components, and related support. Another asks what alternative security architectures India should prioritize in the Indian Ocean if it exits the Quad; Rutansi says India could expand cooperation within the Shanghai Cooperation Organization and BRICS, strengthen a Russia-India-China format (RIC) as a possible “new quad,” and consider strengthening the North South transit corridor involving India, Russia, and Iran. Rutansi closes by asking viewers: how India and the global South should deal with Western Europe’s war fever against Russia.

The speaker expresses disappointment that India would be buying so much oil from Russia, saying, "I've I've been very disappointed that India would be buying so much oil, as you know, from Russia," and adding, "And I let them know that." He states, "We put a very big tariff on India, 50% tariff, very high tariff." He emphasizes his good relations with Modi: "I get along very well with Modi, as you know. He's great." He notes Modi "was here a couple of months ago," and recalls, "In fact, we went to the Rose Garden and it was the grass."

Speaker 0: Nearly two weeks into this conflict, the official story is cracking, and the number of Americans wounded is slowly coming out. Yesterday, we reported based on our sources that the number of American wounded was at least one hundred and thirty seven. After our report ran, the Pentagon has now publicly acknowledged about one hundred and forty wounded. That confirms our sources on this. So why did it take a little news show like ours to report this information? Why wasn't Fox News reporting this information? The Pentagon I know it's really weird. Why is the mainstream media silent on this? The Pentagon finally comes out and actually admits to this. Speaker 1: Reuters comes out and reports this. Exclusive. As many as one hundred and fifty US troops wounded so far in Iran war. They just published this today, this morning. March 10. That's remarkable. Exclusive. Just curious how that's an exclusive when we reported it yesterday. Yesterday. Whatever. Hey, Reuters. Bite me. Anyway, this war is clearly not winding down no matter what the messaging says. President Trump is saying the war could end very soon. But Iran says talks with The United States are off the table for now. Tehran is prepared to keep striking as long as it takes. And they're vowing an eye for an eye. So what is an eye for an eye actually mean? Does it mean you hey, you killed our leader. We kill yours? Does it mean, hey, you killed all these girls who were the daughters of members of the the Iranian Navy at a girls school, do we also do that to you? Like, what is actually does that look like? Speaker 0: Does it mean we took out your water infrastructures or you took out ours? So we do that. Right. Your gas infrastructure, civilian infrastructure, that's that's a war crime. But we did it. Your oil infrastructure, we do that. Like, what exactly does that look like? Meanwhile, the Strait Of Hormuz is getting worse by the minute. US intelligence tracking Iranian mine laying threats now as Gulf energy infrastructure there is taking a major hit with about 1,900,000 barrels per day of refining capacity across Bahrain, Iraq, Kuwait, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and The UAE. All down. CBS now says shipping through the Strait Of Hormuz has ground to a virtual halt. Nothing getting through. That's of just a few minutes ago. And Israel's hammering Beirut's southern suburbs and Lebanon. So they've essentially invaded Lebanon. Speaker 2: And then there's the neocon political class in Washington saying the quiet part out loud. Senator Lindsey Graham is now openly talking about, you know, going back to South Carolina to tell the sons and daughters in South Carolina, you know, you gotta send your loved ones to the Middle East. That's what I'm doing here in South Carolina. I gotta tell them to go fight in the Middle East, and he's calling on other Middle East countries that have been sitting on the fence that we've supported over the years as allies. Get off the fence. Go bomb Iran. Help out with Iran. And, oh, by the way, Spain, we're pissed off at you because you don't want us using your air bases or airspace to bomb Iran. Listen. Speaker 0: To our allies step up, get our air bases out of Spain. They're not reliable. Move all those airplanes to a country that would let us use them when we're threatened by a regime like Iran. To our friends in Spain, man, you have lost your way. I don't wanna do business with you anymore. I want our air bases our air bases out of Spain into a country that will let us use them. To our Arab friends, I've tried to help you construct a new Mideast. You need to up your game here. I can't go to South Carolina and say we're fighting and you won't publicly fight. What you're doing behind the scenes, that has to stop. The double dealing of the Arab world when it comes to this stuff needs to end. I go back to South Carolina. I'm asking them to send their sons and daughters over to the Mideast. What I want you to do in The Mideast to our friends in Saudi Arabia and other places, step forward and say this is my fight too. I join America. I'm publicly involved in bringing this regime down. If you don't, you're making a great mistake, and you're gonna cut off the ability to have a better relationship with The United States. I say this as a friend. Speaker 1: Ugh. He's an odious friend. Speaker 0: Say this as a friend. Speaker 3: With friends pick up a gun and go fight yourself, you coward. Yeah. I freaking hate that. But you're calling so, like, bluntly for somebody else to go die for his stupid cause. Speaker 0: Yeah. Speaker 1: I am so curious about this. I mean, he's a liar. But how many people in South Carolina are really walking up to him and saying, who are we gonna get to fight with us? Who are we gonna get to fight Iran? Worried about this. My son can go, but who's going with him? Let's make some war playdates. Who does that? Speaker 0: Larry Johnson is a former CIA analyst, NRA gun trainer, and, he's been looking at all of this and doing some incredible writing over at his website, Sonar twenty one. Larry, thank you for joining us. Great to see you back on the show. Speaker 4: Hi, guys. Good to see you. Speaker 0: So I wanna talk about the American war wounded first because Mhmm. I know that this is, near and dear to your heart and, of course, something that you've been watching, closely. And the lies, of course, that are coming out about this. Again, I spoke to sources over the past forty eight hours that were telling us here at Redacted about 137 Americans wounded. Then the Pentagon comes out and then confirms about a hundred and forty. So right pretty much right on the nose. And does that number sound low to you? Or does that sound about right? Speaker 4: That sounds a little low. So on March 4, let's go to Germany. Stuttgart, just North West of Germany, there is a hospital called Landstuhl Regional Medical Center. Landstuhl's primary mission is to handle American war wounded. On March 4, they issued a memo telling all the pregnant women that were about to give birth that, sorry, don't come here. We're not birthing any more babies. We gotta focus on our main mission. So that was the first clue that there was there were a lot of casualties inbound. I know, without mentioning his name, somebody who was involved dealing with the combat casualties during the wars in Afghanistan and Iraq, and he dealt with the personnel at Lunstul. And he called someone up and said, can't say anything, but there's a lot of casualties. Then 13 miles to the east of Landstuhl is an army base called Kaiserslautern. Kaiserslautern and the Stars and Stripes issued for that base had an appeal, a blood drive appeal. Hey. We need lots of people to show up and donate blood. So those that was on March 5. So I wrote about this March 6. So I wrote about this four days ago, that, yeah, we had a lot more casualties, and there are more coming, because Iran's not gonna stop. You know, right now, we're getting signals that the Trump administration is reaching out, trying, oh, hey, let's talk, let's talk cease fire. Iran's having none of it. They've been betrayed twice by Donald Trump and his group of clowns. Speaker 0: Right. Speaker 4: You know? And and so they're not ready to say no. No. They've got the world, by the testicles is the polite way of saying it, withholding the Strait Of Hormuz. They've shut down the movement of not only oil, liquid natural gas. They're the supplier of about 25%, 25 to 30% of the world's liquid natural gas, and, about 30%, 30 to 35% of the world's urea, which is used for fertilizer. Now, that may not I just learned that that may not be as important as I once thought it was because most of it comes out of Oman. Oman, you don't have to worry about things going through the Strait Of Hormuz. But on oil and liquid natural gas, huge. 94% of The Philippines depended upon the flow of gas, both liquid and the petroleum oil, out of the Persian Gulf. India, 80%. Japan, South Korea. So this is gonna have a major impact on certain economies in the world. Now there there I I I've said this ironically. I I think Vladimir Putin's sitting there going, maybe Donald Trump really does like me, because what he's done is he's making Russia rich again in a way I mean, they're getting, you know, they were selling they were forced to sell their oil previously under sanctions at, like, $55 a barrel. Now they're getting $88.90 dollars a barrel. Well, and they just opened it up to India. I mean, that story over the past forty eight hours, like, so they The United States has eased its restriction on Russian oil flowing to India. I mean, talk about an absolute disaster. Speaker 4: Well, yeah. And remember what had happened there is India was playing a double game too. You know, bricks India is the I in bricks, and Iran is the new I in bricks. And so what was India doing? Well, India was pretending to play along with The United States, but then going to Russia and saying, hey, Russia. Yeah. We'll buy we'll buy your oil, but we needed a discount because we're going against the sanctions, and we need to cover ourselves. So Russia said, okay. As a BRICS partner, we'll let you have for $55 barrel. So they got a discount. So now when all of a sudden the the the oil tap is turned off, including the liquid natural gas, India goes running back to Russia. Now remember, on, February 25-26, India was in Israel buttering up the rear end of BB, Net, and Yahoo, kissing rear end all they could. Oh, man. It was a love fest. We're partners with Israel. And then Israel attacks their BRICS partner. And what does India say? Nothing. Zero. They don't say a thing about the murdered girls. So now all of a sudden, the oil's turned off. It's nine days now with no oil coming out of there for India. They go running back to Russia. Hey, buddy. Let's let's get back together. And Russia says, sure. That's great. But it's gonna cost you $89 now a barrel. No more friends and family program. Gonna get market conditions. Speaker 0: We've had many journalist friends that have had their bank accounts shut down. We were literally in the middle of an interview with a great journalist from the gray zone who found out that his banking was just shut down. Literally, in the middle of an interview, he got a message that his banking was shut down. Well, Rumble Wallet prevents that, because Rumble can't even touch it. No one can touch it. Rumble Wallet lets you control your money, not a bank, not a government, not a tech company, not even Rumble can touch it. It's yours, only yours, yours to protect your future and your family. You can buy and save digital assets like Bitcoin, Tether Gold, and now the new USA USA app USAT, which is Tether's US regulated stablecoin all in one place. Tether Gold is real gold on the blockchain with ownership of physical gold bars, and USAT keeps your money steady against inflation. No banks needed. It's not only a wallet to buy and save, but it also allows you to support your favorite creators by easily tipping them if you want with the click of a button. There'll be no fees when you tip our channel or others, and we actually receive the tip instantly unlike other platforms where we have to wait for payouts. So support our show today and other creators by clicking the tip button on our Rumble channel. Speaker 1: Now I wanna ask you about president Trump responding to CBS News reports that there may be mines in the Strait Of Hormuz. That doesn't make a ton of sense. He says we have no indication that they did, but they better not. But they are picking and choosing who gets to go through, and their allies can go through. So why would they mine their allies? What do we make of this? Do we need to respond to this at all? Speaker 4: Yeah. I don't think they've done it yet. But let's recall the last time Iran mined the Persian Gulf. They didn't mine the Strait Of Hormuz. They mined farther up. It was 1987, 1988. Why did they do that? Well, in September 1980, when Jimmy Carter and Zbigniew Brzezinski were still in office, The United States encouraged a guy named Saddam Hussein, don't know if you've ever heard of him, but they encouraged Saddam Hussein to launch a war against Iran. And then Ronald Reagan comes in with Donald Rumsfeld and Cap Weinberger, and by 1983 had provided chemical weapons, or the precursors that Iraq needed to build chemical weapons, and Iraq started using chemical weapons against Iran in 1983 and continued to do it in '84, 85, 86. During that entire time, Iran never retaliated with chemical weapons. They were not going because they saw it as an act against God. They were serious about the religion. So 'eighty seven, 'eighty eight, they start dropping mines there in the Persian Gulf. Well, at that time, they didn't have all these missiles, so the United States Navy, a Navy SEAL, a good friend of mine, set up what was called the Hercules barge, and he had a Navy SEAL unit with him, and they fought off attacks by Iranian gunboats. He had some Little Bird helicopters from the one sixtieth, the special operations wing of the Air Force. And but we ended up disrupting the Iranian plan to mine The Gulf back then. Well, we couldn't do that today. We do not have that capability because Iran would blow us out of the water with drones and with missiles. You as we've seen, it's been happening over the last ten days. So United States would be in a real pickle. Speaker 1: And especially given the rhetoric of US war hawks in power for three decades. Like Yeah. Yes. They kind of had to prepare all of this time. Did we think that they weren't paying attention when we said it to the world? Speaker 4: Well, when we're writing our own press clippings and then reading them, there is a tendency to say, god, I am great. Can you see this? How good we are? And so they really believed that our air def the Patriot air defense systems and the THAAD systems would be they they could shut down the Iranian missiles and drones. And what they discovered was, nope. They didn't work. And they worked at an even lower level than the you know, Pentagon kept foul. We're shooting down 90%.

This is a stupid and harmful sanction for the people. The Russians and Europeans will benefit from it, as the Russian oil we won't buy will be sold to others, increasing its price. This means Russia will become richer, and the European Union will be pleased. But the moral question is whether it should be the Europeans funding the war. It's a stupidity that doesn't consider the difficult situation of the French and other Europeans, especially the French. I focus on the daily lives of the French, which are very difficult.

Speaker 0 and Speaker 1 discuss a cascade of developments around Ukraine, Russia, and Western policy. - Speaker 0 notes that Trump reportedly changed his stance on Tomahawk missiles, mentions a meeting with Zelensky where Zelensky supposedly urged acceptance of a Putin deal, and recalls that the Trump-Putin meeting was canceled. Speaker 1 responds that Russia has 100% made clear there will be no freeze and that for the war to end, Ukraine must leave all Russian territory. He says Tomahawk missiles were never on the table, that this was a pressure ploy by Trump to push Russia, and that it could have led to a thermonuclear war, which Putin reminded the US about in their conversations. - According to Speaker 1, Ukrainians will die, Russians will advance, Ukrainian economy will be destroyed, and Ukrainian energy infrastructure will be annihilated, leading to the collapse of Ukraine as a nation. Speaker 0 sketches a timeline: initial plans for a Putin-Trump-Zelensky sequence, Putin’s call after Trump hinted at Tomahawks, then a Zelensky meeting where Zelensky allegedly pressed Trump to accept a Putin deal, after which Tomahawks were no longer on the table and the Trump-Putin meeting was canceled. - Speaker 1 repeats: Tomahawks were never on the table; this was a pressure tactic. He explains the Russia-US exchange as frank, with Russia laying down the law; he asserts that the US would have faced a major escalation if Tomahawks had been supplied, because Tomahawks are nuclear-capable. He claims Ukraine would have been made a party to the conflict through US involvement. He adds that Russia will not accept a freeze because, constitutionally, Ukraine must leave all Russian territory, including Kherson, Zaporizhzhia, Donetsk, and Lugansk. - Speaker 0 asks why Tomahawks would matter, and Speaker 1 reiterates that Storm Shadow and Scout missiles are not nuclear capable, while Tomahawks would be, and contrasts this with Ukraine’s Flamingo drone, dismissing Flamingo as a propaganda tool. He describes Flamingo as a wooden drone designed to mimic a flock of birds and says it will be shot down and is not a serious threat; Ukraine’s drone capability is strong, with Ukrainians as the second-best fighters and drones in the world, while Russians are first in drone capability. - They discuss the trajectory of the war: Speaker 1 emphasizes that Russia’s advance is strategic, with drone warfare transforming the battlefield into piecemeal advances. He asserts Russia’s kill ratio of 36 Ukrainians to 1 Russian, and argues the West’s narrative of Russia suffering more is fantasy. He notes the West’s support for Ukraine drains Ukraine’s resources while Russia’s defense industry booms, and that Russia’s economy, energy, and sanctions resistance show resilience. - On economics, Speaker 1 claims the Russian economy is thriving; gas is cheap in Russia, Novosibirsk and Ekaterinburg are booming, and sanctions have not toppled Russia. He argues Europe’s sanctions are not beating Russia and that Russia’s ruble remains strong; he contrasts this with Western expectations of Russia’s collapse. - They discuss casualty figures and manpower. Speaker 0 asks for a definite casualty number; Speaker 1 cites Ukrainians dying daily (tens of thousands over time) and asserts Russians suffer hundreds daily on their worst day, noting Ukraine’s manpower shortages and Russia’s mobilization efforts: Russia conducted a one-time 300,000-mobilization; Ukraine has mobilized seven or eight times and relies on volunteers and external manpower, including Western units in some cases. He contends Russia’s total forces expanded to 1.5 million due to NATO expansion and ongoing operations. - On battlefield tactics, Speaker 1 explains Russia’s algorithm: three-man assault teams using drone support to seize bunkers held by larger Ukrainian forces, followed by reinforcement, all while drone warfare dominates. He asserts Ukraine’s drone capacity is strong, but Russia counters with its own drones and targeting of Ukrainian drone operators. - They debate why Russia would not freeze lines even if Ukraine yielded Donbas, Lugansk, and Donetsk. Speaker 1 insists those regions are Russian territory per referendum and constitutional absorption in September 2022, and argues that Ukraine cannot give up Donbas, which is Russia’s, and that a freeze would not be acceptable to Russia. He asserts that Moscow will not abandon these territories and that any idea of a freeze is a Western fantasy. - The discussion touches on the Minsk accords, the Istanbul talks, and the argument that Ukraine’s leadership initially pursued peace but later prepared for renewed conflict with NATO backing. Speaker 1 contends that Minsk was a sham agreed to buy time, and that Russia’s goal was to compel Ukraine to honor commitments to protect Russian speakers; Ukraine’s leadership is accused of pursuing war rather than peace after early negotiations. - They discuss Wagner and Prigozin’s role: Wagner provided a vehicle to surge capabilities into Lugansk and Donetsk; after September 2022 these troops were to be absorbed into the Russian military, but Prigozin continued operations in Bachmuth, recruited prisoners, and pressured for offensive allocations; this culminated in a confrontation with Shoigu and Gerasimov, and Wagner eventually faced disbandment pressure and a mobilization response. - In closing, Speaker 0 notes recent sanctions and Putin’s response condemning them as attempts to pressure Russia, while Speaker 1 reiterates that Russia seeks to end the war and rebuild relations with the US, but not under ongoing Ukraine conflict. He emphasizes that India and China will stand with Russia, citing strategic partnerships and the desire to maintain sovereign energy decisions, and predictsRussia will endure sanctions while seeking new buyers and alliances. - The exchange ends with Putin signaling that new sanctions will have costs for the EU, while Speaker 1 reiterates that Russia will adapt and maintain its strategic position, with China and India aligned with Russia rather than yielding to Western pressure.

So last year, The US ran a trade deficit with India of almost $46,000,000,000. Proof to president Trump, the relationship in his view is unfair. India imports most of its oil last year, almost 40% of its crude from Russia. Well, president Trump is saying India is helping Russia fund the war in Ukraine. Earlier this month, he accused it of not caring how many people in Ukraine are being killed by the Russian war machine. India's prime minister Narendra Modi is defiant on all of this. On Monday, his ambassador to Russia said India will continue to buy oil from wherever it gets the best deal in order to protect the interests of its 1,400,000,000.0 p

Speaker 0 explains that petroleum wasn’t what they thought it was and asks if it’s just a mineral or how to classify its origin. He notes that when petroleum was first found, as motors and rails expanded in the early 1800s, oil shifted from a lubricant to a fuel, increasing its value. Rockefeller is described as the smartest man in the business at the time, making much of his money from both the transport and sale of petroleum. He describes the pricing challenge: oil has essentially no initial ground cost, so to raise prices, the industry would make it appear scarce, implying the need to conserve barrels. A pivotal event is highlighted: in 1892, at a Geneva convention of scientists determining what organic substances are, a definition emerged. The convention defined organic as a substance with hydrogen, oxygen, and carbon, usually living things. Rockefeller reportedly sent scientists who stated that oil is hydrogen, oxygen, and carbon, thus derived from rotting formerly living matter, leading to the conclusion that oil is a fossil fuel. He claims the definition was used to describe oil as residue from formerly living matter, and that today petroleum is labeled a fossil fuel. He challenges the idea of fossil fuel by pointing out that there has never been a fossil found below 16,000 feet, while oil is drilled at depths of 28,000–33,000 feet daily, arguing this fact contradicts the fossil-fuel claim. He asserts the term “fossil fuel” is used to create the impression of scarcity and depletion, linking it to depletion allowances and the belief that oil supplies are running out. He contends the world’s oil supply is not near depletion and is the second most prevalent liquid on earth, with many deposits still untapped. Regarding pricing, he asserts that those in charge of petroleum aim to keep prices high, using the rhetoric of increasing scarcity to justify higher costs, including advocating for a world price rather than disparate national prices. He claims this pricing objective is part of a broader strategy, as seen in attempts to set a world price for oil and other commodities like wheat. He recounts a four-year federal staff energy seminar during the so-called energy crisis, attended by high-level officials and even Henry Kissinger. The purpose, he says, was to propagate a propaganda line to establish a world price for oil. He mentions Kantrowitz, head of Kantrowitz Laboratories, who, at the table with geologists, challenged the fossil-fuel assertion, dismissing the notion and prompting laughter at their expense. Kantrowitz reportedly urged the geologists to drop the fossil-fuel claim, noting it’s in all books and papers, tracing the idea back to the 1892 conference, described in a thick scientific encyclopedia by Dieben Ostrand Company. In summary, he argues there is a deliberate push to classify petroleum as a fossil fuel, supported by scientific and political maneuvering, with a substantial financial motive behind maintaining high prices and controlling markets. He concludes that “there’s a dollar sign behind almost everything.”

The discussion argues that India is paying a price for being a US ally. It claims that, not long ago, Trump imposed about a 50% tariff on India and attempted to dictate which energy India could buy or sell from Russia. Later, the US reversed this after needing oil prices to go lower, un-sanctioning Russian oil that India was purchasing. The speaker says that Modi or other Indian leaders would be frustrated by trying to ally with the United States. The conversation then focuses on fertilizer and food costs. The speaker states that the Indian government subsidizes fertilizer costs for farmers to keep end prices low. They claim that Israel is effectively cost-shifting by ensuring the war continues and sabotages peace deals, creating an ongoing need to subsidize higher fertilizer prices to prevent starvation. The response agrees that India will face fertilizer shortages and that subsidies may not cover total costs, so the Indian government will bear a huge expense that ultimately comes out of ordinary people’s pockets. The speaker adds that rising oil costs and shortages of diesel and LNG are worsening the situation. The transcript also reports survey-based claims: according to polls shared by Indian colleagues, most Indians oppose Trump and have become critical of the Israeli regime compared to a year ago. The speakers say this is likely to get worse as fertilizer shortages continue into 2027. One speaker, identifying as a food scientist running a food laboratory, says their published projections show some level of famine in marginalized countries including Bangladesh and Yemen, and potentially India, with Somalia and Egypt also affected. The speakers then discuss whether countries will blame political leaders. They say it is already happening that global public opinion has turned against the Israeli regime, and that as economic conditions deteriorate, anger and hostility will increasingly target the Israeli regime and the United States, since Trump is US president and the economic effects reflect broadly on the country. Finally, they argue the US is paying a heavy price militarily and economically and that its international reputation is being damaged due to the war. They reference the resignation of Joe Kent, the Trump-appointed counter-terrorism chief, who resigned at the beginning of the war; the resignation letter is described as stating that Iran was not developing a nuclear weapon, not a threat to the US, and that the war is about the Israeli/Zionist regime rather than something carried out for the American people. They conclude that as things worsen in the US, people will blame Trump, Netanyahu, and the Zionist lobby, and that the war’s costs and ongoing genocide are driving hostility worldwide.

The Strait of Hormuz has been closed for eleven weeks, and the USA is poised to resume military strikes against Iran, with Israel expected to escalate further. A nuclear power facility in the UAE was struck by drones, which they say came from the West, though the speaker argues the drones could also be from Iran, from Iraq, or a false flag launched from a secret base in Iraq. The speaker says they do not believe Iran is taking responsibility, but notes they may be wrong. Overall, the speaker frames escalation as continuing without a resolution to the Strait. A limited development occurred when about a dozen ships were allowed to pass through after Trump met with China’s President Xi, with an arrangement that also involved Iran giving China permission to allow a certain number of ships to sail through. The speaker emphasizes this does not approach normal traffic levels (such as the previous 120/day figure). They argue that the crisis is not apparent to many Westerners because shipments already contained about eight weeks’ worth of supplies (oil, gas, fertilizer, helium, sulfuric acid, polyethylene, and other inputs). With week 11 underway, the speaker claims there are few remaining ships headed to Western countries. The speaker explains that even if countries have their own oil suppliers, global refining and crude type requirements create dependency on imported heavier crude while exporting sweet light crude. They predict scarcity issues if the supply chain runs out. They highlight shortages already affecting motor oil and describe how recovery will take easily the rest of the year even if the war ends quickly. The speaker urges people to buy motor oil immediately or within two days because blenders are reporting that orders for base oils are being rejected, meaning blended engine oil will not reach shelves. The speaker reports early warnings from retailers and manufacturers (including AutoZone, Honda, Nissan, and others) that engine oil supply problems are approaching. They also give guidance on oil labeling, stating that the first number (e.g., in 5W-30, 0W-20, 10W-40) indicates viscosity at cold start, while the second number indicates viscosity at 100°C, and that the second number matters more for matching what an engine needs. They advise matching the second number to avoid major issues, and they prefer oil that is slightly off spec over running dirty oil too long. Beyond motor oil, the speaker predicts broader shortages tied to polyethylene feedstock loss from the Persian Gulf (attributed to Qatar). They connect polyethylene to many supply chain items, including car parts, machine parts, barrels, containers for food storage, industrial shipping containers, and containers used to ship oil, arguing the resulting erosion of supply will cause widespread disruption. They compare the situation to COVID supply chain shortages but argue this is different because reopening factories would not solve it and the lag time will persist for months. They state shortages could continue into 2027. They recommend people prepare backup supplies and essential parts, and encourage neighbors and family to become aware as shelves begin to empty. The speaker also forecasts rising food and transportation costs, higher travel expenses, increased shipping fees for many items, higher e-commerce prices, and more common shipping delays. They say these effects may worsen around midterms, with political blame falling on GOP and Trump. They claim strategic petroleum reserve releases and attempts to keep energy prices low cannot last indefinitely and predict gasoline could reach around $10 per gallon. They add that EV sales may rise because driving costs are lower and EVs avoid engine oil. Finally, the speaker argues that shifting energy demand to the power grid could stress infrastructure already strained by data centers, and they cite California as vulnerable due to lack of local refining and reduced oil infrastructure, plus limited nuclear power capacity. They conclude that with week 11 and no solution in sight, the situation could continue for months and recommend preparedness for oil, water, gas, solar, and battery storage.