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There is talk of Harris gaining momentum, but the actual shift is from Biden to Harris in the polls. Before Biden dropped out, Trump was up by 2 points over Harris. Now, Trump is up by 1 point over Harris. Biden previously trailed by 6 points, while Harris was only trailing by 2 points. The movement in the polls is due to the change in candidates, not necessarily Harris gaining momentum. Translation: There is talk of Harris gaining momentum, but the actual shift in the polls is from Biden to Harris. Before Biden dropped out, Trump was leading Harris by 2 points. Now, Trump leads Harris by 1 point. Biden previously trailed by 6 points, while Harris was only trailing by 2 points. The change in the polls is due to the change in candidates, not necessarily Harris gaining momentum.

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I was surprised by the backlash she received, particularly from some black elected male officials who expressed reluctance to support a woman. There are discussions about black men distancing themselves from her campaign, but I haven't seen any substantial evidence to support that claim.

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Are there places where the vice president outperformed Joe Biden in 2020? Let's take a look. Harris did indeed overperform in some areas. However, when we examine the eastern side, it appears there are no counties where she outperformed him. In fact, there is literally nothing to report from that region.

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Kamala Harris didn't receive support from various groups, not just Black men. Many voters, including women, didn't back her campaign. It’s disappointing to see that even a comedian like Cat Williams garnered more votes. There were expectations for her to show up and engage, but she seemed absent and disconnected from her own supporters.

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In Georgia and North Carolina, early voting shows low propensity voters are participating, but urban and female turnout is down compared to 2020. This trend is surprising to many. Meanwhile, Kamala Harris has significant challenges to address as Trump is expected to win today.

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Racism and misogyny persist in our society, despite some people's reluctance to acknowledge it. My experiences and the data show a clear racial and educational divide in voting patterns, with college-educated individuals more likely to support Kamala Harris. This reality can be uncomfortable, but it reflects an inconvenient truth about our country. While some argue that voters chose Trump for reasons other than racism, it's important to recognize that many Black voters, despite economic challenges, supported Harris. However, there was a notable split, with a higher percentage of Black voters supporting Trump than in previous elections. This complexity suggests that attributing voting behavior solely to racism overlooks other significant factors.

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Analyzing the Latino vote in the blue wall states reveals significant shifts. In Pennsylvania, Trump has narrowed the gap, securing 41% of the Latino vote compared to Harris's 58%, a 17-point change from Biden's previous 42-point win. In Michigan, Trump leads with 60% of the Latino vote, while Harris has 35%, marking a 36-point swing from Biden's 11-point advantage four years ago. Wisconsin shows stability, with Harris at 61% and Trump at 38%. The changes in Pennsylvania and Michigan indicate a notable movement towards Trump among Latino voters, particularly among Latino men, influenced by economic and cultural issues, including social conservatism.

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Trump's support among black voters in Wisconsin has reportedly doubled, reaching about 20%, compared to 8% in the previous election. In contrast, Kamala Harris received 78% of the black vote four years ago. This shift indicates a significant identity realignment occurring in this election cycle.

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He won key battleground states like Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, Georgia, Nevada, and Arizona. The question arises: why would voters in Wisconsin choose Joe Biden, an older candidate with a controversial past, over Kamala Harris, a younger candidate with a clean record and forward-thinking policies? The frustration stems from the perception that identity factors, such as gender and race, may have influenced voter decisions. This situation leads to feelings of disappointment and confusion, but not surprise.

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The Michigan race shows significant challenges for Democrats, particularly in Wayne County. Traditionally a Democratic stronghold, Wayne County saw Trump make gains in 2016, largely due to lower African American turnout after the Obama era. Despite efforts to boost turnout, officials doubt it will reach 2020 levels, which is concerning for the Harris campaign. Additionally, many Arab American voters in the area are disillusioned, particularly regarding the Gaza conflict, leading some to choose independent candidates over Harris. This decline in support raises questions about the strength of the Democratic blue wall in Michigan.

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The discussion focuses on the vice president's performance compared to President Biden's in the 2020 election. It highlights that there are no counties where the vice president outperformed Biden by 3% or more. The analysis reveals a lack of significant support for Harris in those areas, emphasizing that she did not exceed Biden's performance in any county.

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Obama warned that Harris is underperforming him with black voters, particularly black men, suggesting some may not support a woman president and might back someone who denigrates them, seeing it as strength. One speaker reacted strongly, accusing Obama of sounding like a slave master and shaming black voters for independent thought. This speaker asserted that black people don't owe Democrats anything and aren't accountable to them; rather, the Democratic Party and Kamala Harris are accountable to black voters. Obama expressed disappointment in the black community's support for Harris compared to his own past support. Despite Harris receiving 77-78% of the black vote in Pennsylvania, Obama seemingly blames black voters for her underperformance, implying misogyny.

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Are there places where the vice president outperformed Joe Biden in 2020? Let's take a look. It appears that Harris did indeed overperform in certain areas. However, when examining the eastern side, there seems to be no counties where this is the case. In fact, there are literally no counties showing any overperformance.

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Looking at the numbers, Black voters really showed up for Kamala Harris. However, white women voters didn't follow suit. In states where reproductive rights were taken away and efforts were made to emphasize the importance of reelecting the person responsible for taking those rights away to restore them, that message didn't resonate enough with white women to vote for Vice President Harris. This is a critical moment. White women now have a second chance to shift how they engage with the patriarchy.

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Barack Obama is reportedly scolding black men for not supporting Kamala Harris, suggesting they may not want a woman president and are excusing support for those who "denigrate" them. In response, black men are criticizing Obama for lecturing and shaming them into voting for Harris. Rob Smith declared he is voting for Donald Trump. Vernon Jones accused Obama of berating black men for not voting for "madam lock up a brother, Kamala Harris," claiming black men aren't stupid and know gas, food, and home mortgage prices are higher under Harris. CJ Pearson stated Obama didn't do anything for black people as president and that Harris has done nothing for black people either. He will support Trump, who delivered for black people. The speaker claims Harris isn't black and is co-opting the identity. She says identity politics isn't working on the black community.

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Nationally, only 7% of voters feel enthusiastic, and 19% are satisfied, while 72% express dissatisfaction or anger. When asked about America's future, 61% believe the best days are ahead, while 34% think they are in the past. President Biden's approval rating stands at 41%, with 58% disapproving of his performance. The high dissatisfaction raises questions about whether voters will direct their frustration towards Kamala Harris or Donald Trump. Given the current political climate, it seems challenging for Harris to win, as she is part of the Biden administration, which has low approval ratings. If she manages to win despite these numbers, it would indicate she has successfully distanced herself from the administration's issues.

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Democrats in Philadelphia are expressing concerns that the Harris campaign is not adequately engaging with local party members about improving voter margins. Despite losing Pennsylvania in 2020, Donald Trump increased his vote count in Philadelphia from 2016 to 2020, and it appears he is on track to do so again.

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Michelle Obama and Kamala Harris are accused of using racism to manipulate black voters. The speaker encourages black Democrats to educate themselves and be informed voters. They criticize Democrats for blindly supporting Joe Biden without knowing his accomplishments or Kamala Harris's controversial actions in California. The speaker questions when black voters will break free from the Democratic "plantation." The transcript ends abruptly.

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Hispanic voter support for Biden has dropped from 59% to 45%, with Trump at 39%. Among Black voters under 50, Biden's lead has decreased from 80 to 37 points. Despite forgiving $144 billion in student loans, only 36% of debt holders approve. Biden has also lost 8% support from women since 2020. Despite these declines, recent polls show him ahead.

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Participants compared the economy under Trump versus Biden, with many believing Trump handled the economy better, citing job creation and opportunities. A key concern about Harris is whether she can translate ideas into effective policies and get them passed. Some question her strength and ability to lead, especially compared to figures like Michelle Obama or Hillary Clinton. Some think Harris did better than Biden in debates, but that both are too old. Some noted Harris refers to emotional, anecdotal evidence instead of facts. Some observed that Biden seemed to not address Harris directly. There are doubts about whether Harris is merely a figurehead carrying out Biden's agenda. While some believe she is a better person than Trump, it's uncertain if that translates to better performance in office. Some question whether her perceived strength will last throughout a potential term and if she can stand up to other world leaders.

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The math is concerning for Democrats, as they are down 1.7 million early votes in battleground states. In urban areas, they are short by 1.4 million votes among women voters, while rural voters have exceeded expectations by 300,000. Democrats need to secure early victories, as Republicans typically perform better on election day. Currently, the margins do not favor Democrats in these key states.

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The speaker discusses the significance of black voters supporting Trump, which is uncommon for a Republican front runner. They mention that black voters initially supported Biden to save democracy, but their impression hasn't changed over the year. Despite improvements in jobs, black homeownership is down and Biden's efforts to connect with this group have not resonated. The speaker also acknowledges that black unemployment was low during the Trump administration, but emphasizes that it was still lower before. They attribute Trump's success to his messaging skills.

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Harris is the potential 1st woman, Black woman, and Asian president, but lacks popularity. Despite winning few delegates in the 2020 primaries, she has been quiet as VP. Her unpopularity is unexplained, even by MAGA supporters. She is intelligent and accomplished, but her handling of the border is criticized. Life can be unfair.

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This election has amplified longstanding issues in American history, such as racism, misogyny, xenophobia, and antisemitism, particularly targeting women of color. Historical examples show that these sentiments have consistently identified an "other," from the French in the 1798 Alien Sedition Acts to various ethnic groups throughout history. While race and gender undeniably influence leadership choices in America, the recent election results indicate that the Democratic Party underperformed across various demographics. Although Black women supported the Democrats significantly, they couldn't compensate for lower turnout among Black men and Latino voters. The complexities of voter motivations suggest that the reasons for the Democrats' loss are multifaceted, rather than solely based on racism.

The Megyn Kelly Show

Obama Tries Shaming Black Men, and Kamala Gets Vogue Treatment, w/ Halperin, Spicer, and Turrentine

Guests: Halperin, Spicer, Turrentine

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Megyn Kelly opens the show discussing recent political events, including Vice President Kamala Harris's Univision Town Hall and Barack Obama's comments about black male voters. She criticizes Obama for shaming black men who don't support Harris, suggesting that persuasion is more effective than lecturing. Kelly expresses outrage over Joe Scarborough's interview with Doug Emhoff, where he failed to address serious allegations of Emhoff's past behavior towards women. She emphasizes the media's double standards in handling accusations against Democrats versus Republicans. Kelly introduces her guests: Mark Halperin, Sean Spicer, and Dan Turrentine, to discuss Obama's comments and the challenges Harris faces in garnering support from black men. They agree that Obama's approach is unlikely to resonate with voters and that Harris's campaign struggles stem from her perceived lack of authenticity and decisiveness. The discussion shifts to the Democratic Party's outreach strategies, including a controversial ad aimed at men that Kelly finds awkward and ineffective. The panel critiques the Democrats' failure to connect with voters on key issues like the economy and immigration, suggesting that Harris's vague messaging is not resonating. They also analyze the Senate races, noting that Democrats are at risk of losing seats due to dissatisfaction with Harris and Biden's administration. The conversation touches on the importance of messaging and the need for candidates to address voters' concerns directly. Kelly highlights Trump's recent comments in Detroit, where he criticized the city while proposing tax cuts for auto loans. The panel debates whether Trump's remarks will hurt or help him politically, with some arguing that he effectively highlights issues in cities governed by Democrats. The show concludes with Kelly expressing frustration over the media's treatment of Trump and the lack of accountability for Democratic figures like Emhoff. She calls for more rigorous questioning of politicians regarding their past actions, particularly concerning allegations of abuse.