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Stanislav Krapivnik and the host discuss the current phase of the war in Ukraine, focusing on the southern front around Zaporizhzhia and the broader strategic implications. - On the southern front, the Russians are advancing along the Zaporizhzhia axis, with the last defensible Ukrainian positions in the area being Arakha (Orakhivka) and Zaporizhzhia city. Gulyaipol has fallen after Russians breached a fortified eastern line by exploiting open terrain and flanking from the east; the Ukrainians’ straight-line northern assaults into Gulyaipol are described as unsustainable under heavy drone and open-ground fire. Russian forces have moved along the river edge and toward a 15-kilometer radius from Zaporizhzhia City, entering suburban zones and pressing east to overhang Arakha from the north. Zaporizhzhia City itself is an open terrain area with a major bridge over the Nieper; the speaker asserts it would be hard to hold under drone and air superiority, and predicts a ruinous but ultimately unsustainable defense there. - The Russians have established a corridor along the river edge, with continued advances toward the eastern outskirts and suburbia north of Zaporizhzhia City. From there, a potential northward push could flank from the south toward Krivyi Rih and Nikolaev, creating a threat toward Odessa if a bridgehead across Kherson is rebuilt and maintained. The argument is that taking Nikolaev is a prerequisite to threatening Odessa and that control of Kherson remains a strategic hinge. - Ukraine’s attempts to retake territory are described as costly and often ineffective PR moves, including “suicidal” assaults on Gulyaipol where fighters up on exposed ground are eliminated by drone and artillery fire. The Russians are said to have flanked Ukrainian positions with new lines north of fortified areas, rolling up fortifications and leaving Ukrainian defenders with few exits. - In the north and center, fighting around Konstantinovka continues, with a southwest push into the area and Ukraine concentrating reserves to stop it. Kosytivka is described as about 65% surrounded, Mirnograd and Pokrovsk are said to be effectively finished, though small pockets hold out. In Sumy and Kharkiv directions, new incursions are occurring but are relatively small; the border is being “flattened” or straightened as Ukraine’s reserves are used. - Weather and terrain play a critical role. Mud, freezing and thaw cycles, fog, rain, and wind hamper heavy mechanized movement and drone operations. Western equipment struggles in mud due to narrow tracks, while Russian equipment with wider tracks traverses better but still encounters problems. Drones do not fly well in fog or rain, and heavy winds impede operations; Russia is leveraging fog to move infantry in close combat. - The broader war and geopolitics are discussed. Ukraine’s energy infrastructure is a major target; European willingness to sustain support is framed as a bandage on a jugular wound, insufficient for a long-term victory. The host notes a perceived drift in European strategy, with French signals of compromise and American mediation and hints at how US priorities ( Greenland, Iceland, Iran, Cuba) could pull attention away from Ukraine. The Arashnik hypersonic system is described as capable of delivering a devastating plasma envelope and kinetic energy, with the potential to destroy bunkers and infrastructure anywhere in the world. - On the strategic horizon, there is skepticism about negotiations. The guest dismisses talk of a near-term deal and describes the last 10% of a push as the “bridge too far,” arguing that Russian gains in Donbas, Zaporizhzhia, and Kherson are eroding Western leverage as they advance kilometer-by-kilometer. Zelensky is portrayed as a stationed beneficiary whose personal and backers’ financial interests may drive bargaining positions, with claims that he does not care about Ukrainians and is motivated by extraction from the conflict. - The guest contends that a gradual Russian advance, backed by logistics and local tactical wins, is more likely than a dramatic collapse, while insisting that a full-scale nuclear exchange between Russia and Europe remains unlikely unless the United States and NATO become deeply involved. The Arashnik discussion notes the potential for a limited exchange, but emphasizes Russia’s stated preference not to escalate, arguing Russia would not “want Europe” but would respond decisively if pushed. - The discussion also touches on global logistics and Western cohesion. A veteran anecdote about US military logistics in 2002 is used to illustrate how NATO’s naval and merchant fleets depend on non-Western partners for transport, underscoring European vulnerability in sustained conflict. Mercedes-Benz re-registering in Russia is noted as a sign of shifting economic realities, with wider implications for European-company strategy amid sanctions and isolation. - The program ends with a return to the practicalities of ongoing combat—daily casualties, the erosion of Ukrainian defensive lines, and the intensifying pressure on Ukrainian supply and morale—before signing off.

The deep state liberals are influencing Zelensky and preventing a deal from happening. They initially gave Zelensky hope through European leaders who promised weapons and support, but these leaders require America's backing, which isn't happening. The deep state liberals want the war to continue and are manipulating Zelensky. I realized yesterday that a deal isn't going to happen, and Zelensky needs to be more aware of this manipulation.

It's an honor to have President Zelenskyy of Ukraine here. We've had a long and productive relationship, and we've reached a very fair deal that benefits both our countries and the world. This deal involves rare earth minerals, and it represents a significant commitment from the United States. We've also had good discussions with Russia, including a conversation with President Putin, to try and bring the conflict in Ukraine to a close. We need to negotiate a deal to stop the loss of life and redirect resources to rebuilding. The previous administration wasn't even speaking to Russia, but we've initiated talks and see the confines of a deal. If I were president, this war would have never happened. Your soldiers have been incredibly brave, and now we want to bring this to an end. We'll be signing the agreement shortly, and we're hopeful that we're close to a deal.

Zelensky needs to act swiftly, as the war isn't progressing favorably for Ukraine. I believe I can successfully negotiate an end to the war with Russia, something others have failed to do. Putin may even agree. Zelensky seems unwilling or unable to pursue peace, evident by his frustration over not being invited to Saudi Arabia, and the fact that there have been no productive talks to end the war in three years. The war has resulted in devastating casualties for both sides, with countless lives lost. Ukraine is shattered under his leadership. To end this, you must talk to both sides, which hasn't happened. My hope is to see a ceasefire soon and restore stability in Europe.

I think Zelensky's recent behavior is a complete disaster. I've been to Ukraine many times and appreciate their fight, and was hoping our minerals deal would go well. I even spoke to Zelensky this morning, and he was very upbeat. However, what I saw in the Oval Office was disrespectful, and I'm unsure if we can do business with him again. His confrontation with the President was over the top, making it difficult to convince Americans he's a good investment. In Munich, Zelensky was terrible. He either needs to resign and send someone we can work with, or he needs to change his approach. We want to discuss security guarantees, ceasefires, and how the war ends, especially with this half-trillion-dollar deal that President Trump is proud of.

The social media conversation is hectic right now because Zelensky is used to a warm reception from both Democrats and Republicans. The idea of having all funds cut if Zelensky doesn't cooperate in peace negotiations is something he wasn't ready for. What really triggered Trump was the line about the U.S. having an ocean between itself and Russia, and that the war would come home. Trump was expecting sneakiness, but from Zelensky's perspective, he was saying what you typically see in foreign policy papers about what insulates the U.S. The stalling on the minerals deal, combined with implying Ukraine had leverage because the U.S. needed Ukraine, obliterated Zelensky's standing. Now NATO and the EU are scrambling to prop up Zelensky without aggravating Trump and unleashing a tariff war on Europe.

It's an honor to have President Zelenskyy of Ukraine here. We've been working closely, and we have a fair deal to access rare earth resources. We've also had good discussions with Russia and President Putin to try and bring an end to the war. They're losing thousands of soldiers, and we want the fighting to stop so we can focus on rebuilding. The previous administration didn't speak to Russia, but I believe if I were president, this war would have never happened. We're going to sign an agreement, and I think we're fairly close to a deal.

It's an honor to have President Zelenskyy here. We've been working closely together, even navigating a few disagreements to reach a fair deal that benefits both our countries and the world. We're looking forward to working together on rare earth resources. I've also had good discussions with President Putin, aiming to end the war. We're losing too many soldiers and want to redirect resources to rebuilding. The previous administration didn't engage with Russia, but I believe I can negotiate a deal, showcasing the bravery of Ukrainian soldiers. I hope this agreement will be a crucial step toward security guarantees for Ukraine. We count on continued American support, and I want to discuss details further, including drone production, air defense, and the return of stolen Ukrainian children. We must stop Putin, a killer and terrorist, to save our country, values, freedom, and democracy.

I think the situation with Ukraine is a complete disaster. I've been there multiple times since the war started and understand the consequences of Putin's actions. I was hoping the minerals deal, which could transform our relationship, would be successful. But after what I saw in the Oval Office, I don't know if we can do business with Zelensky again. His handling of the meeting was disrespectful and over the top. It will be very difficult to sell to the American people that he's a good investment. He either needs to resign and send someone we can work with, or he needs to change his approach.

It’s an honor to have President Zelenskyy of Ukraine here. We've been working closely together for a long time and have negotiated a fair deal to obtain rare earth minerals that we need for AI, weapons, and our military. I've also had good discussions with President Putin to try and bring the war to a close. If I were president, this war would have never happened. We've given Ukraine great equipment and credit to their brave soldiers. We're going to sign the agreement shortly, and I think we're fairly close to a deal to stop the shooting. I hope this document will be the first step to real security guarantees for Ukraine. We count on America's continued support, including licenses for air defense and your strong position to stop Putin.

I spoke with Volodymyr Zelenskyy this morning and assured him that Ukraine's path to NATO membership is now irreversible. This position directly opposes recent statements made by President Trump and his Defense Secretary, Pete Hegseth, who have repeatedly dismissed the possibility of Ukraine joining the military alliance.

I think the situation with Ukraine is a complete disaster. I've been there multiple times since the war started and understand the consequences of Putin's actions. I was hoping the minerals deal would go well; it would be transformative. I spoke with Zelensky this morning. I was proud of President Trump and JD Vance standing up for our country. However, what I saw in the Oval Office was disrespectful, and I'm unsure if we can do business with Zelensky again. Most Americans wouldn't want to partner with him after that. His confrontational approach was excessive. The relationship between Ukraine and America is vital, but after what I witnessed, I question if Zelensky can make a deal with the U.S. He was terrible in Munich and has made it difficult to convince Americans he's a good investment. He either needs to resign or change his approach.

I've been to Ukraine many times since the war started and admire their fight. I hoped this minerals deal would be transformative, having even spoken with Zelensky this morning. President Trump was in a good mood last night, and I've never been more proud of him. However, what I witnessed in the Oval Office was disrespectful, and I'm unsure if we can continue doing business with Zelensky. His handling of the meeting and confrontation with the president was excessive. While the relationship between Ukraine and America remains vital, I question Zelensky's ability to strike a deal with the U.S. after this. He was terrible in Munich, making it difficult to convince Americans he's a worthwhile investment. He either needs to resign and send someone we can work with, or he needs to change his approach.

I think the situation with Ukraine is a complete disaster. I've been there many times since the war started and understand the consequences of Putin's actions. I appreciate the Ukrainian people's fight, and I was hoping the minerals deal would go well. However, what I saw in the Oval Office was disrespectful, and I'm unsure if we can do business with Zelensky again. His handling of the meeting was over the top. The relationship between Ukraine and America is vitally important, but can Zelensky make a deal after this? He was terrible in Munich, making it hard to sell him as a good investment to Americans. He either needs to resign and send someone we can work with, or he needs to change his approach.

President Zelensky was initially willing to sign a deal, but delayed it, even after being urged to do so in person at the White House. An agreement was prepared for signing, but Zelensky never signed it. An unelected president of a client state, whose bureaucrats' retirement accounts are funded by American taxpayers, has a retirement age of 60, while France is 62 and Italy is 67. Zelensky, a performer and ordinary person, rose to the occasion heroically but is now stuck and under pressure. Some of his government officials are good, but he's not getting the best advice. The proposed agreement ensures money benefits both American and Ukrainian people, unlike rapacious Chinese deals or loans to own. It's a genuine economic partnership where both parties profit. This agreement regulates the flow of money, which is why some people don't like it.

Russia has been invaded three times through Ukraine, and they don't want Ukraine to join NATO. Gorbachev agreed to German reunification under NATO with the promise that NATO wouldn't expand eastward. However, in 1997, plans were made to move NATO eastward, incorporating 15 countries and surrounding the Soviet Union. NATO expanded into 14 new nations and withdrew from nuclear weapons treaties with Russia, placing missile systems in Romania and Poland. The U.S. allegedly overthrew the Ukrainian government in 2014, installing a Western-sympathetic government. Russia then entered Crimea to protect its warm water port. The new Ukrainian government allegedly began killing ethnic Russians in Donbas and Lugans. The Minsk Accords, designed to keep NATO out of Ukraine, were refused by the Ukrainian parliament. Zelenskyy was elected in 2019 promising to sign the Accords, but allegedly pivoted due to threats from ultra-rightists and the U.S. Russia then intervened, aiming to negotiate. A treaty guaranteeing Ukraine wouldn't join NATO was allegedly signed, but Boris Johnson, allegedly under Joe Biden's direction, forced Zelenskyy to abandon it.

It's an honor to have President Zelenskyy of Ukraine here. We've been working very closely together for a long time and have negotiated a fair deal that benefits both countries and the world. This agreement involves rare earth elements, which are crucial for our technology and military. We've also had good discussions with Russia, including President Putin, to try and bring this conflict to a close. The loss of soldiers on both sides is devastating, and we want to see it stop so we can focus on rebuilding. My administration is actively engaged in finding a deal, which I believe is possible. We give Ukraine great credit for their bravery and are committed to supporting them. It's time to end this war.

President Trump is upset with President Zelensky, and in some cases, rightfully so. Joe Biden also had frustrations with Zelensky because he wouldn't express gratitude for the help he received. I was personally upset when Zelensky rejected a joint venture for mineral rights after initially agreeing to it. We saw it as a security guarantee, giving us a vested interest in Ukraine's safety while getting paid back for the taxpayers' money we invested. While Ukraine is on another continent, it impacts our allies and the world. There should be some gratitude, but instead, Zelensky accuses the President of disinformation, which is counterproductive. President Trump is transparent and won't tolerate being "gamed." He's willing to work on peace and hopes Zelensky will be a partner, not someone putting out counter-messaging.

Ray McGovern, a former CIA officer who chaired the National Intelligence Estimate and prepared daily briefs for the president, discusses the newly released US national security strategy and its implications for the war in Ukraine, as well as broader US-Russia and US-Europe dynamics. - McGovern notes a dramatic shift in the national security strategy’s emphasis. He observes it prioritizes the Western Hemisphere, Asia, Europe, and the Middle East, with Russia treated as part of Europe. He contrasts this with past eras, recalling Paul Wolfowitz’s post–Gulf War doctrine, which asserted US primacy and the ability to act that Russia could not stop, and he emphasizes the stark difference between that era and the current document. - He recounts a historical anecdote from 1991–1992: Wolfowitz’s belief that the US could win where others could not, followed by a warning to General Wesley Clark that Russia would challenge US primacy as times changed. He points to subsequent US actions in Iraq (2003) and Syria (2015) as evidence of a shift in capability to project power, and he argues that in 2022 Russia halted US plans by preventing NATO expansion into Ukraine. - McGovern interprets the current strategy as signaling a recalibration: the US may be acknowledging a changing balance of power, with a focus on deterring Russia and stabilizing relations with Moscow, while recognizing that Europe is central to strategic calculations. He stresses that Russia’s core principle, in its view, is to prevent Ukraine from joining NATO, and he underscores that the strategy doc frames core interests as seeking strategic stability with Russia and a negotiated modus vivendi, though he notes these appear as a “castaway” in the Europe section. - He discusses ongoing high-level discussions in Berlin involving Witkoff (Wittkop) and Jared Kushner, and Zelenskyy’s positions on NATO membership and security assurances. He recalls past European reactions, including Rubio’s role in watering down European talking points and US–Russian negotiations, suggesting a pattern of European concessions followed by US–Russian engagement that sidelines European voices. - McGovern argues that Russia has “won the war” on the battlefield and that Moscow’s tactic is gradual, minimizing Ukrainian casualties while consolidating control over parts of Donetsk and other territorial objectives. He asserts Putin’s priority is to maintain a workable relationship with the United States, with Ukraine as a secondary concern. He also notes Trump’s stated interest in improving US-Russia relations, including a willingness to consider extending New START, and he highlights that Moscow would react to whether Trump commits to the treaty’s limits for another year, which would influence Moscow’s strategic calculations. - The discussion covers the internal US debate over how to handle Ukraine and whether to pursue negotiations with Russia. McGovern argues that the reality of Russia’s position and Ukraine’s losses complicate any simple “win” scenario for Ukraine, and he suggests that a negotiated settlement might eventually emerge if a durable US–Russia relationship can be pursued, given Russia’s advances on the battlefield and its leverage in European security. - They discuss John Mearsheimer’s realist perspective, arguing that Western expansion toward Ukraine contributed to the conflict, and that voices emphasizing NATO enlargement as the sole cause are contested. McGovern mentions Obama’s warnings not to give Ukraine illusions of prevailing against Russia and to avoid escalation, and he contrasts this with Stoltenberg’s statements about Russia’s preconditions for peace. - They also critique EU moves to seize Russian assets to fund Ukraine, suggesting that European leaders may be acting to preserve political power rather than align with the public’s long-term interests, and question whether such measures will endure or provoke wider political backlash. - In closing, McGovern reiterates that Russia has the upper hand for now, with the war’s outcome dependent on political decisions in Washington and Moscow, particularly whether Trump can extend New START, and whether European and US policymakers can sustain a realistic approach to security guarantees and the balance of power in Europe. The conversation ends with a cautious note about the potential for a settlement but ongoing uncertainties about the strategic environment and transatlantic politics.

I may be meeting with President Zelensky soon to sign an agreement, hopefully in the Oval Office. We're finalizing a deal involving rare earths and other elements that would benefit both of our economies. Regarding critical minerals with Ukraine, we're nearing a deal where we'll recoup our investment over time, which will greatly benefit their country. We've invested $350 billion. The previous administration is to blame for this, but we should be able to work it out. The Europeans, who have also invested a substantial amount, have been understanding and cooperative in resolving this issue. We're very close to a deal with the Ukrainians; we are on the one yard line.

I think the situation with Ukraine is a complete disaster. I've been there many times since the war began, and I understand the consequences of Putin's actions. I was hoping the minerals deal, which could transform the relationship, would be successful. I even spoke with Zelensky this morning. However, what I saw in the Oval Office was disrespectful. I don't know if we can do business with Zelensky again. His handling of the meeting was over the top. The relationship between Ukraine and America is vitally important, but after what I witnessed, I question whether Zelensky can make a deal with the United States. He was terrible in Munich and has made it almost impossible to convince the American people that he's a good investment. Zelensky either needs to resign or change his approach.

On January 17th, the British signed a deal with Ukraine securing exclusive rights to future agreements. This is a key point, as it seems the U.S. was unaware of this arrangement. The UK/Ukraine deal is a 100-year agreement covering security guarantees and economic development. It appears President Trump and his team realized they were being misled, creating conflicting narratives. News outlets claim European leaders support Zelensky, but the U.S. is seemingly being asked to commit to a deal the British have already secured. To move forward, honesty is crucial. The President was attempting a straightforward agreement on mineral rights, unaware the British had already finalized a deal days before his inauguration. If Europe wants U.S. assistance, they must be transparent about existing agreements.