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Mark Changizi discusses the irrational beliefs surrounding COVID-19, emphasizing that many widely accepted narratives are based on flawed reasoning. He urges skepticism towards historical and scientific knowledge, highlighting the prevalence of falsehoods in mainstream narratives.

Joe Rogan welcomes Michael Shermer, a prominent skeptic and author, discussing Shermer's journey from being a cyclist to becoming a leading voice in skepticism. Shermer shares his background in cycling, including his participation in ultra-endurance races and the culture surrounding them. He reflects on the oddities of both the cycling community and the skeptical movement, noting that all subcultures have their eccentric members. The conversation shifts to doping in cycling, where Shermer recounts his experiences during the 1980s when blood doping was legal and how it evolved with the introduction of EPO. He discusses the moral implications of doping, particularly in the context of Lance Armstrong, who he believes didn't invent doping but took it to a professional level. Shermer emphasizes the competitive nature of cycling and how it can lead athletes to push boundaries. They discuss skepticism and the importance of critical thinking in evaluating claims, including conspiracy theories. Shermer highlights the need for resources like Skeptic Magazine and Snopes to help people discern fact from fiction. He explains how conspiracy theories often arise from a desire to find meaning in complex events, using examples like the 9/11 truth movement and the belief in UFOs. The conversation touches on the nature of belief and how people are drawn to mysteries, including the appeal of extraterrestrial life. Shermer argues that the search for meaning often leads to the acceptance of unfounded claims, as seen in the flat Earth movement. He emphasizes the importance of understanding the psychology behind these beliefs and the need for open dialogue to challenge them. They also explore the evolution of ideas and creativity, discussing how breakthroughs often come from a combination of knowledge and the ability to think outside the box. Shermer notes that many successful ideas stem from a deep understanding of a field, coupled with the freedom to explore unconventional thoughts. The discussion shifts to the impact of technology on society, including the potential for genetic engineering and the ethical implications of altering human biology. Shermer expresses skepticism about the idea of uploading consciousness to machines, arguing that it raises fundamental questions about identity and continuity. As the conversation concludes, they reflect on the importance of free speech and the need to engage with opposing viewpoints to foster understanding. Shermer emphasizes that while the world has made significant moral progress, there are still challenges to address, particularly in the realm of education and critical thinking.

Dax Shepard and Monica Padman host Steven Pinker, a renowned cognitive psychologist and author, discussing his new book, *Rationality: What It Is, Why It Seems Scarce, Why It Matters*. Pinker emphasizes the importance of understanding rationality, particularly in a world filled with misinformation and flawed decision-making. He notes that while humans have made significant advancements, such as discovering DNA and developing vaccines, they are also susceptible to irrational beliefs, like conspiracy theories. Pinker explains that many people struggle with distinguishing correlation from causation, using the example of the false link between vaccines and autism. He argues that understanding logic, probability, and statistical reasoning should be as fundamental as reading and writing. The conversation touches on how societal biases and emotional responses can cloud rational thinking, particularly in political contexts. Pinker highlights the need for humility in recognizing our cognitive limitations and the importance of peer review in achieving rational discourse. The hosts discuss the emotional aspects of decision-making, suggesting that fear often drives irrational beliefs. Pinker agrees, noting that effective leaders must combine rational policies with emotional messaging to resonate with the public. He also addresses the rise of conspiracy theories, attributing it to feelings of alienation and distrust in the establishment. Pinker concludes that rationality is essential for personal well-being and societal progress, arguing that better decision-making leads to improved life outcomes. He encourages readers to embrace rational thinking as a means to navigate the complexities of modern life, asserting that understanding rationality can lead to a more fulfilling existence.

In this discussion, Dave Rubin and Michael Shermer emphasize the importance of skepticism, defining it as the desire for more information before making judgments. They critique the lack of skepticism in public discourse, particularly among pundits and politicians, urging citizens to question political narratives and seek factual information. Shermer shares his journey from being a born-again Christian to a skeptic, influenced by education and personal experiences that challenged his beliefs. He argues that skepticism is essential not only for understanding the world but also for moral reasoning, which can be grounded in science rather than religion. They explore the cognitive biases that lead people to prefer comforting beliefs over uncomfortable truths, highlighting the ease of type one thinking versus the effort required for type two thinking. Shermer discusses how moral values are inherent in human nature, shaped by evolutionary processes, and how societies have historically developed rules to promote cooperation and justice. He critiques the oversimplification of complex issues, such as terrorism and immigration, and the dangers of identity politics, which can lead to tribalism and moral absolutism. The conversation also touches on the role of conspiracy theories, noting that while conspiracies do exist, not all claims are valid. Shermer emphasizes the need for critical thinking and the importance of engaging in open discussions, even with those holding opposing views. They conclude by discussing various political issues, including gun control, abortion, and economic policies, advocating for a pragmatic approach that prioritizes individual freedoms and moral considerations over rigid ideological stances.

Mark Changizi discusses how leaders are often cognitively blind to human biases, which affects their decision-making and arguments. He emphasizes that both leaders and the populace are susceptible to these biases, leading to flawed reasoning and intuitive but misleading arguments. A leader aware of these biases may struggle to connect with the public, who are influenced by more intuitive, albeit incorrect, arguments. This cognitive limitation is a persistent issue across generations, as leaders who understand these biases are often at a disadvantage in sociopolitical contexts.

Reason, Lionel Page suggests, is less a tool for solving problems than a mechanism for convincing others. It’s why a courtroom argument often travels on clever framing rather than hard facts, and why our most constant debates are social tests rather than engineering challenges. He uses the 2001: A Space Odyssey image of a sudden flash of reasoning to illustrate how humans become human when we learn to bend information toward persuasion. Self-deception, he argues, is not a bug but a feature designed by evolution. We lie to ourselves to avoid costs, to bluff without appearing dishonest, and to preserve reputations. People consistently inflate how capable they are, how moral they are, and how victimized they have been, sometimes to secure a better share of resources or social status. The result is both a rose-tinted view of the world and a habit of arguing from the vantage point of the lawyer, not the scientist. From there the conversation moves to cooperation and conflict. Repetition makes trust possible because the future shadow of reputation discourages outright cheating. Language becomes a game of signals, where parents, partners, and coworkers negotiate through ambiguous statements, indirect asks, and paltering—the art of saying something true while steering others toward a false impression. Relevance, reciprocity, and a shared sense of belonging shape who succeeds and who stays outside the group, much as in a football match or a workplace project. Mind reading, theory of mind, and the social brain emerge as central concepts. Humans navigate nested beliefs, anticipate others’ moves, and regulate emotions to stay credible. The discussion pivots to artificial intelligence, with large language models offered as imitators of human conversation—impressive, but still far from the depth of genuine social understanding. Computers can simulate dialogue, yet they struggle with recursive mind reading and the subtle choreography of human cooperation. Ultimately, the episode reframes democracy as a contest of coalitions rather than a chase for universal truth. Leaders win by pleasing a shifting electorate, and loyalty signals—whether in politics, dating, or team sports—become as consequential as principles. The tension between autonomy and belonging remains a constant undercurrent, driving how we negotiate rules, punish betrayal, and invest in relationships. In Page’s view, acknowledging these games can cultivate more empathy and a healthier stance toward our own biases.

Megyn Kelly opens the show with a personal announcement about the sudden death of her sister, Suzanne Crosley, at 58 due to a heart attack. She shares her emotional experience with family during this difficult time and reflects on the importance of cherishing loved ones. Kelly mentions the passing of Ainsley Earhardt's mother, emphasizing life's fragility and the need to stay connected with family and friends. The discussion shifts to the upcoming midterm elections, with Kelly introducing Senator Ted Cruz, who will discuss Republican strategies to regain control of Congress. Cruz highlights the changing political landscape and the potential for Republicans to win seats in the House and Senate, despite earlier predictions. Kelly then welcomes Michael Shermer, author of "Conspiracy: Why the Rational Believe the Irrational," to explore the prevalence of conspiracy theories. Shermer discusses the psychological factors that make people susceptible to believing in conspiracies, including paranoia and the tendency to conflate unrelated events into a narrative. He emphasizes the difficulty of distinguishing between true and false conspiracy theories, especially when some have turned out to be accurate. The conversation touches on the impact of misinformation and the challenges of navigating a world where conspiracy theories are rampant. Shermer explains that many people who believe in one conspiracy theory are likely to believe in others, often driven by a desire to find patterns or explanations for complex events. Cruz returns to discuss the politicization of the legal system under the Biden administration, highlighting issues such as the treatment of parents protesting at school board meetings and the implications of critical race theory in education. He argues for the need to restore integrity to the Department of Justice and the FBI, emphasizing the importance of accountability and oversight. The discussion also addresses the controversial topic of transgender athletes in women's sports, with Cruz expressing concerns about fairness and safety. He argues that allowing biological males to compete against women undermines the integrity of women's sports and poses risks to female athletes. As the show concludes, Kelly and Cruz discuss the upcoming elections, the potential for Republican gains, and the broader implications of current political dynamics. They reflect on the importance of addressing issues like student loan forgiveness and the need for a more equitable approach to education and opportunity.

The illusion of control leads people to believe ineffective interventions, similar to gamblers at a roulette table.

In this episode of Armchair Expert, host Dax Shepard welcomes psychologist Paul Bloom, a Yale professor and author of several books, including his latest, *Psych: The Story of the Human Mind*. The conversation covers a wide range of topics, including the nature of human behavior, the influence of childhood experiences, and the complexities of memory. Dax and Paul discuss the psychological factors that influence personal expression, such as fashion choices, and how these choices can reflect deeper personality traits. Paul shares insights from his work, emphasizing that people often underestimate the extent to which they can be influenced by external factors, referencing Stanley Milgram's famous obedience experiment. The discussion shifts to the fragility of the human psyche, with Paul highlighting how easily individuals can be swayed by social pressures and circumstances. He mentions the importance of understanding the social emotions that drive human behavior, such as gratitude and shame. They also touch on the topic of memory, particularly the misconception that memories are perfect recordings of events. Paul explains that memories are reconstructive and can be influenced by various factors, including suggestion and emotional state. He cites research showing that people often misremember details of events, which can lead to false memories. The conversation further explores the implications of psychological research, including the challenges of replicating findings in psychology and the importance of skepticism in interpreting studies. Paul discusses the "weird" problem in psychology, where much of the research is based on a narrow demographic, primarily Western, educated individuals, which may not represent the broader human experience. As the episode progresses, they delve into the complexities of human relationships, the impact of societal norms on behavior, and the nuances of identity. Paul argues that while emotions play a significant role in shaping behavior, rationality is a powerful force that distinguishes humans. Towards the end, they discuss the concept of racism and the importance of understanding biases without labeling individuals harshly. Paul emphasizes the need for a nuanced vocabulary to discuss these issues, recognizing that everyone has biases shaped by societal influences. Overall, the episode is a rich exploration of psychology, human behavior, and the intricacies of memory and identity, encouraging listeners to reflect on their own experiences and the factors that shape their perceptions.

Intelligent individuals can often convince themselves of absurd beliefs due to a strong need for illusion, leading to a dangerous form of self-delusion. Gurwinder Bhogal discusses how social media has shifted the focus from actions to opinions, compelling people to form quick, often ill-informed stances on various topics. This phenomenon results in a polluted discourse where many feel pressured to defend poorly thought-out opinions to maintain consistency and avoid appearing weak. Bhogal introduces the concept of "bespoke opinions," where individuals create viewpoints based on whim and hearsay when prompted. He notes that the permanence of online opinions creates a fear of change, stifling personal growth and encouraging stubbornness. This ties into the idea that intelligent people, when aligned with ideologies, may inadvertently reinforce their own delusions, using their intellect to rationalize flawed beliefs. The conversation also touches on the fading affect bias, where negative memories diminish faster than positive ones, allowing individuals to cope with past traumas. This psychological mechanism serves as a defense against overwhelming negativity, enabling people to maintain hope and motivation. Bhogal emphasizes that discomfort can drive personal growth, as challenges often lead to better outcomes. They discuss the concept of deferred happiness syndrome, where individuals postpone their happiness for an ideal future, neglecting the importance of living in the present. This mindset can lead to a life spent chasing unattainable goals, ultimately resulting in regret. Bhogal highlights the issue of "pretty privilege," where attractive individuals receive unearned advantages in life, overshadowing discussions about other forms of privilege. He argues that societal biases against beauty are often overlooked, despite their significant impact on life outcomes. The dialogue concludes with a reflection on the importance of peace of mind and sanity, suggesting that true happiness stems from internal well-being rather than external achievements. Bhogal advocates for introspection and self-awareness as essential tools for navigating life's challenges and maintaining mental clarity in a chaotic world.

Tim Harford discusses the pervasive skepticism surrounding statistics, emphasizing that while it's common to dismiss data as misleading, rejecting all statistical claims is unwise. Harford, trained as an economist and philosopher, has become a writer and broadcaster focused on evidence-based ideas, storytelling, and social science. He highlights the difference between stated and revealed preferences, noting that people often express desires that don't align with their actions. He references Seth Stephens-Davidowitz's *Everybody Lies*, which illustrates how online searches reveal true intentions, contrasting with social media portrayals. Harford critiques the simplistic view of inflation, explaining that it involves relative price changes, particularly in essential goods, complicating central bank responses. He warns against both blind faith in experts and indiscriminate skepticism, advocating for a balanced approach to evaluating claims. Harford's *Cautionary Tales* podcast explores how emotions influence decision-making and perception, arguing that expertise can lead to delusion when emotional investment clouds judgment. He shares anecdotes, including Arthur Conan Doyle's belief in fairy photographs, illustrating how even knowledgeable individuals can be misled by their biases. The conversation also touches on societal changes driven by inventions like the bicycle and the impact of caffeine on social discourse. Harford concludes by emphasizing the importance of understanding the emotional context behind decisions and the need for nuanced discussions about societal issues, such as childbearing and economic incentives.

Reasoning has inherent costs, and one must balance the benefits of optimal decision-making against the risks of inaction. Stephen Pinker discusses the challenges of understanding cognitive biases and the importance of mental models in navigating complex situations. He notes that while intelligence correlates with rationality, biases like my-side bias affect everyone, regardless of intelligence. Smart individuals should be wary of motivated reasoning, which can cloud judgment. Pinker emphasizes the need for diverse information sources to counteract groupthink and biases. He explains Bayesian reasoning as a method for calibrating beliefs based on evidence, highlighting its relevance in forecasting and decision-making. Pinker also addresses the rise of conspiracy theories, which often evade rational scrutiny and reflect moralistic biases. He concludes by discussing the psychology of common knowledge, which he explores in his upcoming book, emphasizing its significance in social and political contexts.

In this episode of Armchair Expert, Dax Shepard and Monica Padman welcome Dan Ariely, a social scientist and professor at Duke University, to discuss his new book, *Misbelief: What Makes Rational People Believe Irrational Things*. Ariely shares insights into conspiracy theories and the psychology behind misbelief, emphasizing the importance of understanding human behavior to address societal issues like poverty and violence. Ariely recounts his journey through academia, including his educational background and the influence of Daniel Kahneman on his focus on behavioral economics. He highlights the gap between academic research and practical application, stressing the need for social scientists to engage with real-world problems and make their findings accessible. The conversation shifts to the impact of stress on decision-making and belief formation. Ariely explains how stress can lead individuals to adopt complex narratives with villains, which provide a sense of control in chaotic situations. He discusses the emotional, cognitive, and social factors that contribute to misbelief, including confirmation bias and the desire for social acceptance. Ariely shares a personal experience during the COVID-19 pandemic when he faced conspiracy theories about himself, illustrating the challenges of engaging with misbelievers. He emphasizes the need for empathy and understanding, as many who adopt misbeliefs do so out of a desire for community and belonging. The discussion also touches on the role of personality traits, such as narcissism, in susceptibility to misbelief, and the importance of social support in fostering resilience. Ariely warns against ostracizing those who hold misbeliefs, as it can push them further into extremist views. Towards the end, Ariely reflects on the challenges of being a public figure in academia, particularly after facing scrutiny over past research. He expresses confidence that the truth will ultimately prevail and emphasizes the importance of maintaining a commitment to understanding and helping others. Overall, the episode delves into the complexities of human belief systems, the societal implications of misbelief, and the necessity for compassion and dialogue in addressing these issues.