reSee.it Podcast Summary
Andrew Song, co-founder of Make Sunsets, discusses their geoengineering approach to mitigating climate change. Make Sunsets launches reflective clouds near the ozone layer, mimicking the cooling process of volcanic eruptions by injecting sulfur dioxide into the stratosphere. This method aims to buy humanity time to decarbonize economies and remove excess CO2. Song argues that climate change is an addressable problem that is not currently being prioritized. He estimates a less than 5% 'Poom' (probability of doom) from climate change, contingent on addressing it with solutions like stratospheric aerosol injection.
The company's approach involves filling biodegradable latex balloons with sulfur dioxide and hydrogen, which then float into the stratosphere and pop, releasing the sulfur dioxide. This reflects sunlight, creating a cooling effect. Song notes that this mimics natural phenomena, such as volcanic eruptions and ship tracks, which have demonstrated similar cooling effects. He acknowledges that this is a temporary measure, an 'Ozempic' or band-aid for climate change, while emphasizing the need for carbon removal technologies to scale up.
Song explains that since the 1850s, the planet has warmed by 1.2 to 1.3°C, nearing the 1.5°C threshold set by the Paris Agreement. He details potential disaster scenarios, including increased wildfires, floods, and intense storms, leading to trillions of dollars in property damage. While human resilience has decreased deaths, ecological collapse remains a concern, especially for biodiversity. Geoengineering, including carbon removal and solar radiation management (SRM), offers potential solutions. SRM involves influencing radiative forcing, such as painting roofs white or marine cloud brightening, but stratospheric aerosol injection is the most well-studied intervention.
Make Sunsets aims to mimic volcanic eruptions by injecting sulfate aerosols into the stratosphere. Song references the IMO 2020, where reduced sulfur content in shipping fuel led to a noticeable warming effect, and the Clean Air Act, which reduced sulfur dioxide emissions, unmasking warming. He argues that sulfur dioxide, like ozone, has both beneficial and harmful applications depending on its location. In the stratosphere, it reflects UV radiation, while at ground level, it causes acid rain and respiratory issues. The company's balloons release approximately 1500 grams of SO2, offsetting the warming effect of one ton of CO2 per year, a 1 to 1 million leverage.
The sulfur dioxide used in the balloons is sourced from the refinement of oil, specifically sour oil and gas, where it is a waste product. The gas is also used as a fungicide and preservative in wine. Song mentions that one oil company produces 10 million tons of elemental sulfur annually, enough to cool the entire planet by 0.5°C. Scaling up the operation involves using larger, one-ton balloons that can offset the warming effect of 1 million tons of CO2 per year. To roll back the entire industrial revolution's CO2 emissions, 1.5 million tons of sulfur dioxide would be needed, requiring a billion of their current balloons.
Song estimates that achieving 0.5 degrees Celsius of cooling would cost around $1 billion per year, making it a cheap solution. He criticizes environmentalists who oppose it because it is 'too easy.' He suggests that one billionaire could fund the project and solve global climate change. He contrasts Make Sunsets with Bill Gates's failed Scopex project, which was blocked by NIMBYism. Song emphasizes that the company's operations are safe, as the sulfur dioxide is released in the stratosphere, avoiding acid rain. He notes that individuals can pay $1 to launch one gram of sulfur dioxide into the stratosphere, offsetting one ton of CO2 for a year.
The conversation shifts to the potential downsides of geoengineering, including the risk of 'termination shock' if SO2 emissions are stopped abruptly. Song acknowledges that excessive amounts of sulfur dioxide could affect monsoon and rainfall patterns, but these effects can be avoided by limiting the quantity to around 2.5 million tons per year. He also addresses the 'moral hazard' argument, suggesting that easy solutions may disincentivize reducing fossil fuel consumption. However, he believes capitalism will drive the adoption of better technologies than fossil fuels. He advocates for a mindset shift, encouraging people to consume energy without guilt, as long as they offset their emissions through geoengineering efforts.
Song envisions a future where AI manages the deployment of sulfur dioxide, optimizing its distribution based on satellite data and stratospheric winds. He highlights the potential for Make Sunsets to play a significant role in offsetting the CO2 emissions from new power plants, such as the one planned for OpenAI's Stargate project. He concludes by emphasizing the need for more people to recognize the simplicity and affordability of geoengineering solutions, advocating for a shift away from guilt-based approaches to environmentalism and towards embracing technological solutions.