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Rania Khalek discusses Lebanon’s situation, saying the Lebanese government “effectively abandoned” the southern territory and “handed it over to Israel,” calling the signed deal “utterly shocking” and “submissive.” She argues the agreement forfeits Lebanon’s right to pursue legal cases against Israel for violations of international law and “constant war crimes,” cements Israeli occupation of the South, allows Israel to bomb whenever it “feels threatened,” and conditions any Israeli withdrawal on Lebanon colluding with the Israelis and Americans to conduct a civil war against Hezbollah in the South.
Khalek says even people who are anti-resistance are alarmed, with questions about whether the government was blackmailed and how the deal could be worse than the Oslo Accords. She links the timing and rush of the agreement to earlier developments: after a memorandum of understanding and an Iranian-American meeting, she describes a “deconfliction cell” in Lebanon involving Iranians to enforce an Israeli ceasefire and “ultimate withdrawal.” She says the Lebanese anti-resistance camp “freaked out” because it would be a win for Hezbollah, Iran, and Lebanon. She claims Marco Rubio stepped in, working with Israelis and Lebanese Zionists in Washington to undermine the American-Iranian framework spearheaded by J.D. Vance.
Addressing Lebanon’s internal sectarian structure, George notes the state is built on sectarian divisions, reserved parliamentary seats, and constitutional arrangements. Khalek responds that the deal is “politically untenable” and “can’t actually work,” arguing even the Lebanese army would not agree to go to war with Hezbollah or disarm them as demanded, warning this could lead to dangerous split or civil strife within the army. She cites polling distinctions, saying that in Lebanon, supporting disarming Hezbollah is not the same as supporting Israel, and that the majority sees Israel as the main enemy while also recognizing the Lebanese army cannot defend Lebanon.
Khalek argues the deal creates extreme polarization by giving the pretense of Lebanese approval to a US and Israeli plan, allowing US and Israeli actors to claim legitimacy to the Iranians. She says the people who signed away Lebanon lack popular support and are in power due to American and Saudi installation after what she describes as a Hezbollah defeat in 2024, predicting opposition could lead to uprising and civil strife. She also says Israel could not disarm Hezbollah, and that Israel’s experience shows Hezbollah’s strength and continued supply and intelligence sharing with the US.
She adds that in Iran, the speaker of parliament, Ghalibaf, told Nabi Bidi, the Lebanese parliament speaker and Shia leader, insisting on a ceasefire and Israeli withdrawal, setting up “contradiction” between the Israeli-U.S. plan and Iran’s position. She frames the outcome as depending on whether the Trump administration recognizes it has lost its war and chooses to change course.
In a later exchange, George raises Trump’s public threats to unleash al-Qaeda from Syria against Lebanon. Khalek says this has not gone down well due to prior Syrian occupation of Lebanon and al-Qaeda’s invasion during the ISIS era, when Lebanese forces and Hezbollah cooperated to push them out and when “Jolani” (described as Ahmed al-Shara, then al-Nusra leader) led those forces. She says obstacles prevent a Syrian move: Shara is focused on stabilizing Syria’s post-regime change situation, disciplining and killing minorities, and he answers to Turkey. Khalek claims Turkey would not greenlight a Syrian invasion weakening Hezbollah in a way that could allow Israel to target Turkey next.
She also points to an agreement clause internationalizing Hezbollah disarmament by saying it would receive help from Arab countries without specifying which, suggesting that if Turkey or Saudi Arabia changed their position later, the stipulation could be used to justify an Arab, including Syrian, intervention. She concludes it is unlikely to happen soon.