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The Department of Treasury is issuing record levels of debt, with $7 trillion issued in just 3 months and $23 trillion in a year. This has bloated the treasury market, raising concerns about a potential crash. The economy is propped up by debt, with federal debt rising by $1 trillion every 90 days. US treasuries are seen as cash but are actually promises to pay back in the future. The illusion that all debt will be repaid is crucial, as any doubts could lead to a financial system collapse. Fiscal trends are worsening, with a $2 trillion deficit that will increase during a recession. Collapse seems inevitable without intervention. Visit profsaintonj.com for more details.

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The federal government is overspending, with deficits hitting record highs due to wars, welfare, and interest on debt. Tax revenue is not keeping up with spending, leading to a ballooning national debt. Interest payments on debt are consuming a large portion of tax revenue, making the situation unsustainable. The government shows no signs of cutting spending, leading to predictions of inflation, defaults, and debt crises in the future. This financial Ponzi scheme could end in disaster if not addressed soon.

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Over the past two decades, the national debt in the United States has skyrocketed. In the year 2000, it was $5 trillion, but under Republican President George W. Bush and Democratic President Barack Obama, it doubled twice, reaching $20 trillion by the end of Obama's term. In the last six years, with both Republican and Democratic presidents, the debt has grown to $31.5 trillion. This level of spending is unsustainable and has led to inflation and rising costs for everyday items. The debt ceiling, which is coming up, has historically been used as leverage to force spending reforms. It is important to note that defaulting on the debt is not an option, as there is sufficient revenue to cover interest payments. The Republicans aim to use the debt ceiling as a tool for meaningful structural reforms to address the underlying problem. Joe Biden's refusal to negotiate is unreasonable, and the press should not simply repeat partisan talking points. Biden's recent State of the Union speech was disappointing, angry, and divisive. He failed to take responsibility for policy failures, such as inflation and the border crisis. The speech could have been an opportunity for Biden to reach out to the new Republican majority, but instead, he doubled down on failed policies. The removal or weakening of the blue slip, a senator's ability to influence judicial appointments in their state, would be detrimental to the institution of the Senate. The prediction that weakening the Senate's filibuster for judges would result in more conservative Supreme Court justices has proven true. Democrats were willing to prioritize partisan politics over the integrity of the Senate.

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People with TDS or EDS will slander anyone, and the truth doesn't matter to them. During Obama's second term, the deficit increased by $3.5 trillion. Under Trump, the deficit increased by $7.8 trillion due to the pandemic, which cost $3.6 trillion. $1.9 trillion of that deficit came from tax cuts, which put money back into the American people's pockets. At the rate our deficit is increasing, our government and our country is on pace for economic collapse. Trump and Elon are trying to fix this. If we don't change something, the only thing our government will eventually be able to commit money to is servicing debt, meaning no federal employees are getting paid, no SNAP benefits, no food stamps, no section eight, no Social Security. Do not listen to these fearmongers.

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Politicians promise more "free stuff," leading to deficit spending, where the government spends more than it earns. To cover this, the Treasury borrows money by issuing bonds, which are essentially IOUs. These Treasury bonds constitute the national debt, requiring repayment by current and future taxpayers through taxation. Therefore, issuing bonds allows the government to spend today by stealing prosperity from the future. The Treasury then conducts a bond auction involving the world's largest banks.

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The national debt is projected to reach $144 trillion in 30 years, causing concern about its impact on the economy. The US federal government is on an unsustainable fiscal path as the debt grows faster than the economy. Borrowing from future generations is worrisome, and it's crucial to prioritize fiscal sustainability sooner rather than later. Two important factors for American prosperity are the dynamic and innovative economy, which sets it apart from other countries, and the role of the United States as the leading voice in supporting and defending democracy and security arrangements globally. Politics does not influence the Federal Reserve's decisions on timing, as incorporating politics could lead to worse economic outcomes. The Federal Reserve values integrity and plans to maintain it.

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The US financial situation has some symptoms that are difficult to diagnose. Many believe the problem is high taxes, and while US taxes are indeed very high, that's not the core issue. The real problem is that even with high taxes, they aren't truly funding the government. Instead, the government is financed by treasury bonds, largely bought by the Federal Reserve. The Fed buys these by printing money, backed by the treasury bonds themselves. Essentially, the government is financed by printing money out of thin air. One might ask, if the government can print unlimited money, why collect taxes at all? The shocking answer is that high taxes exist to maintain the illusion that you are funding the government, which you are actually not.

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There is $1.3 trillion in student loan debt, with $800 billion owed by taxpayers. The student loan program started by President Obama is seen as benefiting him, not the public. Critics believe it is a ploy to secure votes, even at the expense of non-college graduates. This could lead to forgiveness of loans for non-profit and Ivy League schools, impacting future elections.

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A report reveals that only a small portion of the $7.5 trillion COVID spending actually went towards health, with the majority being used for handouts and special interest subsidies. Green projects, government-funded nonprofits, and bailouts for various sectors received a significant share of the funds. The military industrial complex also received a large sum, contributing to the national defense budget. This excessive spending has led to skyrocketing inflation, with roughly half of the existing dollars being freshly printed. The Federal Reserve's role in printing money to support the government's spending habits is concerning, as it perpetuates the deficit and debt. Without intervention, the deficit is projected to reach $50 trillion in seven years. The future looks uncertain, with little hope of Washington changing its spending habits.

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The modern banking system creates currency far faster than trees grow, and most people do not understand how currency is created. The process begins with deficit spending: politicians secure funding promises by pushing the government to spend more than its income. To cover the deficit, the Treasury borrows by issuing bonds, described as glorified IOUs—“loan me a trillion dollars today, and I promise…to pay you back…plus interest.” Treasury bonds are the national debt and are portrayed as obligations that must be repaid through future taxation, meaning prosperity is taken from the future to spend in the present. Treasury bond auctions are attended by large banks that buy parts of the debt and earn interest, taking a cut at multiple stages. Through open market operations, banks sell some bonds to the Federal Reserve for profit. The Federal Reserve is then described as “writing” checks that should balance only if there were funds in an account that has a zero balance; instead, when the Federal Reserve writes checks, it is said to be creating money. The Fed hands these checks to banks, and currency is said to “spring into existence.” Banks then use the newly created currency to buy more Treasury bonds at the next auction. The transcript claims that the Treasury and Federal Reserve are swapping IOUs, with banks acting as intermediaries: the Treasury issues bonds, banks buy them with currency, the Federal Reserve writes checks in exchange for the Treasury’s IOUs, and currency is created repeatedly. It further claims that paper currency comes from this process, though the Federal Reserve and government allegedly call it “base money” despite not distinguishing between “money” and “currency.” “Money” is said to require maintaining purchasing power over long periods, while the “base currency” is framed as a receipt or claim check on an IOU (a bond), represented by numbers. After the Treasury deposits newly created currency into government branches, politicians spend it on public works, social programs, and war. Government employees, contractors, and soldiers deposit their pay in banks. The transcript then argues that depositing currency in a bank does not mean it is safely held for depositors; instead, it is characterized as a loan to the bank, which can use it (including fractional reserve lending). Under a ten percent reserve ratio example, a $100 deposit allows the bank to keep $10 in reserve (vault cash) and loan out $90 without telling the depositor. The depositor’s account still shows $100 because the bank replaces the “stolen” portion with bank credit created as new deposit dollars on its books. As loans are spent and re-deposited, the transcript describes repeated rounds of bank credit creation, claiming that an initial $100 deposit can create up to $1,000 in bank credit under a ten percent reserve ratio. It also claims reserve ratios vary and some forms have zero requirements, increasing the expansion further. The transcript states that 92% to 96% of all currency is created by banks rather than the government. It links currency expansion to inflation, defining inflation as an expansion of the currency supply and rising prices as a symptom. It asserts that the system is “a hocus-pocus scam” in which the Treasury and Federal Reserve swap IOUs and numbers while banks type numbers into computers. Taxes are portrayed as the mechanism that ultimately restores the funds used to pay bond principal and interest, with the IRS sending taxes to the Treasury so the Treasury can pay the bonds held by the Federal Reserve—described as involving checks “drawn on an account that has nothing in it.” The transcript claims that before the Federal Reserve existed, there was no need for personal income tax, and notes that the Federal Reserve was created in 1913 alongside a constitutional amendment permitting income tax. The transcript argues the system is mathematically paradoxical: it claims interest is due on every dollar in existence, creating a requirement to borrow additional dollars to pay interest, so debt always exceeds currency available to pay it. It then argues that if borrowing stopped, payments would continue while currency would not be replaced, causing deflationary collapse. It characterizes discussions of balancing budgets and debt ceilings as delusional because the system is said to require ever-increasing debt and politicians “kick the can down the road.” It also argues that the Federal Reserve is not “federal” because it has stockholders, described as private owners receiving a 6% annual dividend. It states that tracking actual ownership is difficult due to mergers and acquisition changes, and suggests that primary dealers and banks that profit from selling national debt to the Federal Reserve likely hold ownership. A final recap outlines: (1) the government creates bonds/IOUs; (2) bonds are swapped into currency through banks and the Federal Reserve; (3) the Treasury deposits currency and government spends it; (4) banks multiply currency via fractional reserve lending; (5) people work and are taxed; (6) the debt ceiling mechanism delays collapse; (7) owners of the Federal Reserve receive dividends and profits. The transcript concludes by urging viewers to share and teach the explanation, join a conversation about a new monetary system, and prevent further loss of freedoms.

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We don't have any extra money to send to Ukraine, considering our massive deficit of over $1.5 trillion. Borrowing money from China to support Ukraine doesn't make sense. We don't have a rainy day fund with trillions of dollars just sitting around. Instead, we would have to borrow the money, which leads to inflation. Since Russia's war in Ukraine began, American taxpayers have already provided $113 billion to Ukraine. We have many issues in our own country that need attention before we borrow more money to fuel a war in another nation.

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Scott and Mike Pence, both Republicans, voted to raise the debt, while Donald Trump added a staggering $8 trillion to our national debt. This is a burden our children will bear. Looking at the 2024 budget, Republicans requested $7.4 billion in earmarks, while Democrats asked for a mere $800 million. It's clear that the Republicans are the big spenders. We need an accountant in the White House to address this issue.

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The US fiscal deficit is decoupling from unemployment, entering a new era where deficits remain high despite low unemployment. This matters because it impacts asset prices, especially scarce ones like gold and Bitcoin. Historically, gold prices correlated with real interest rates, but this relationship decoupled around 2022. Federal debt growth now consistently outpaces private sector debt growth, impairing the Fed's ability to control credit growth through interest rates. This fiscal train is unstoppable due to several factors. High debt levels combined with interest rates that can't go much lower are making interest expenses a meaningful part of the federal budget. The Social Security trust fund is projected to deplete, leading to increased spending. The fiat system relies on continuous debt growth, making deleveraging difficult. The system is like a Ponzi scheme that requires constant expansion. The US is repeating a pattern seen in the 1940s, switching to federal debt growth and large deficits. This is inflationary and persistent because raising interest rates exacerbates the deficit. This relentless deficit growth contrasts sharply with Bitcoin's scarcity and transparency, making it a valuable asset to own.

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The speaker argues that US fiscal deficits are unstoppable due to a decoupling of unemployment and deficits since 2017. Historically, deficits rose during recessions and fell during economic booms, but now deficits remain high despite low unemployment. This matters because deficits impact asset prices, especially scarce ones like gold and Bitcoin. Real interest rates and gold prices have also decoupled, with gold soaring despite high interest rates, indicating a shift. Federal debt growth now consistently outpaces private sector debt growth, impairing the Fed's ability to control credit growth through interest rates. Raising rates now increases the federal deficit faster than it slows private sector credit growth. This is driven by high debt levels, the end of structurally declining interest rates, and the spending down of the Social Security trust fund as baby boomers retire. The current fiat system relies on continuous debt growth, making deleveraging nearly impossible. The speaker concludes that large fiscal deficits will persist for the next decade due to this system and human nature, making scarce assets like Bitcoin a valuable protection.

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Speaker 0 presents a sequence of large-scale financial figures: - From 1998 to 2015, undocumentable adjustments at DOD and HUD amount to 21 trillion. - Bailouts between 2008 and 2012 amount to 29 trillion. - Adding 21 trillion and 29 trillion yields 50 trillion. - Going direct injections after the going direct reset began in 2019 during the pandemic amount to another 5 trillion, bringing the total to 55 trillion, not counting quantitative easing. - He concludes, “we don't have a financial problem. We have a bank robbery.” - He notes that in the annual wrap-up, a new chart was created and released on social media showing the numbers.

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More than 25% of the annual federal deficit is spent taking care of illegal immigrants. In 2023, the total outlay was $6.1 trillion, the total revenue was $4.4 trillion, and the federal deficit was $1.7 trillion. In 2023, $451 billion was spent taking care of illegal immigrants, which is 26.5% of the $1.7 trillion deficit. If the border was secure and there was control over who enters the country, 26.5% could be cut from the deficit. This is especially important because the money is borrowed, meaning interest will be paid on it. In 2023, $451 billion was borrowed to support illegals, and interest will be paid on that amount.

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America is going bankrupt quickly, but nobody seems to notice. The Defense Department budget is a trillion dollars a year. Interest payments on the national debt have exceeded the Defense Department budget and are over a trillion dollars a year and rising. The U.S. is adding a trillion dollars to the debt every three months, soon to be every two months, then every month. Eventually, the only thing the U.S. will be able to pay is interest. This situation is like a person with too much credit card debt and does not have a good ending. Spending must be reduced.

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The US government prints its own money, so why borrow in the same currency? Confusing language aside, the government sells bonds to borrow money. Despite the confusion, it's clear the government prints money and borrows, leading to debt and deficits.

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The speaker states that supporting US consumers is the reason for their actions, which are part of the dollar being a reserve currency. Regarding the US fiscal situation, the speaker acknowledges that US federal debt is on an unsustainable path, but not at an unsustainable level currently, and the limit is unknown. They state that the US is running very large deficits at full employment, which needs to be addressed sooner rather than later. The largest and fastest-growing parts of federal spending are Medicare, Medicaid, Social Security, and interest payments, requiring bipartisan solutions. Domestic discretionary spending is a small and declining percentage of federal spending.

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The speaker argues that the administration inherited a fiscal and monetary “mess” and that it must get out of it, noting that the problem was not created overnight and will not be solved overnight. They point to rising interest costs, saying that before COVID they were paying about a billion dollars in interest expense per day, and now it is more than three billion dollars per day, claiming this spending does not strengthen the military or help the least well off. They propose that there are two monetary policy instruments: setting interest rates and managing the central bank’s balance sheet (QE). The speaker claims that if the “printing press” were run “a little quieter,” interest rates could be lower because the current approach floods the system with money, keeping inflation above target. They cite a seven trillion dollar central bank balance sheet, described as an order of magnitude larger than when the speaker joined the Fed, and argue that this, together with interest rates, constitutes monetary policy. The speaker criticizes the view that the balance sheet has nothing to do with monetary policy, saying that if it mattered when being grown, it should matter when being moved in the other direction. They argue for honest recognition of how both instruments operate, emphasizing that growing the real economy is the more important goal for revenue, fairness, efficiency, and growth. They call for shrinking the central bank balance sheet to reduce inflation, and they propose that the Treasury Department and the Federal Reserve reach an accord similar to one from 1951: the Federal Reserve should manage interest rates, while the Treasury Department should handle fiscal accounts. The speaker says the lines have been blurred about who is responsible, and that having fiscal authority pushed toward the Federal Reserve brings politics to the Fed and interrupts its normal course. They further say the Fed should be taken out of markets except “until there’s a crisis,” framing the approach as “practical monetarism,” which they believe would make lower interest rates possible and more beneficial to the real economy than changes to the balance sheet alone.

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Supporters of the bill admit it adds $270 billion to the debt next year, which is the only certainty. The bill also increases the debt ceiling by $5 trillion. This increase is an admission that they aren't controlling the deficit and anticipate adding trillions more in ensuing years. The authors of the bill are anticipating adding more than $2 trillion next year.

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The Federal Reserve's actions are worrisome. They've lost trillions by borrowing money at high rates (5.4% from banks, 5.3% from funds like Fidelity and Vanguard) to buy government bonds. This artificially inflates the government's perceived financial health, encouraging excessive borrowing when rates were low. This process diverts capital from the private sector, hindering business growth and job creation. Instead of the Fed holding massive balances, that money should be used by businesses for expansion and innovation. The Fed's actions are mirrored by other major central banks globally, exacerbating the problem. It's not money printing; it's expensive borrowing that harms the economy. Freeing up these funds would allow banks to lend to small businesses and stimulate economic growth.

Coldfusion

America's Debt Crisis Is Bigger Than You Think
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In this episode of Cold Fusion, Dagogo Altraide discusses the escalating US national debt, which has surged from $39,000 per household in 1980 to over $260,000 in 2024, totaling more than $35 trillion. The US is projected to spend over a trillion on interest payments this year, surpassing its defense budget. This debt crisis poses risks not only to Americans but also to the global economy, as a potential default could lead to a loss of confidence in US bonds, skyrocketing interest rates, and market volatility. The episode outlines two potential outcomes: a positive scenario where the US manages to attract investment despite a default, leading to economic recovery, and a negative scenario characterized by a crisis of confidence, higher borrowing costs, and global repercussions. Solutions to the debt issue include economic growth, printing money, raising taxes, or cutting spending. The most feasible option appears to be cutting government waste, which could significantly alleviate the debt problem. The urgency for reform is emphasized, as the consequences of inaction could unfold over the next decade.

All In Podcast

Ray Dalio | The All-In Interview
Guests: Ray Dalio
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The discussion centers on the significant financial challenges facing the U.S., including a federal debt of $36.4 trillion against a GDP of $29.1 trillion, resulting in a debt-to-GDP ratio of 125%. This ratio has risen sharply since the pandemic, with federal debt increasing by 80% and GDP by 38%. The U.S. is currently running a nearly $2 trillion annual deficit, with projections indicating that annual budget deficits will average 6.1% of GDP through 2035. Ray Dalio emphasizes the importance of understanding the mechanics of debt cycles, noting that only 20% of currency debt markets since 1700 remain, all having devalued over time. He describes the "big debt cycle," which lasts about 80 years, and warns of the risks associated with rising debt service burdens. Dalio outlines four potential actions to address the looming debt crisis: increasing taxes, cutting spending, central bank debt monetization, and restructuring debt. He stresses the urgency of implementing these measures to avoid a more severe crisis, advocating for a "3% solution" to reduce the deficit. The conversation also touches on the geopolitical landscape, particularly the U.S.-China dynamic, and the potential for increased internal conflict as economic pressures mount. Dalio warns that without decisive action, the U.S. could face significant turmoil, both domestically and internationally, as it navigates these complex challenges.

This Past Weekend

Thomas Massie | This Past Weekend w/ Theo Von #592
Guests: Thomas Massie
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Thomas Massie sits with Theo Von and talks about living off the grid in Kentucky, his camper home on the road, and the solar‑powered setup that keeps utilities at bay. He describes a Ford F‑250 with a truck camper, a solar array, a well, and a plan to run without public utilities for twenty years. He jokes about a robotic chicken tractor he calls the Klux capacitor, a Roomba‑like device that moves to give chickens fresh forage while fertilizing the yard; he explains it runs on super capacitors, not batteries. He insists he is off the grid at home as well, writing that he hasn’t bought public utilities in twenty years, with a Tesla, rainwater collection, and a garden full of cattle and chickens. He proclaims, “I’m the greenest member of Congress and no Democrat has come after me,” and notes his independence from DC. He recalls living in the camper in DC, with occasional welfare checks from the cops who didn’t know he was there, and says the worst day in Kentucky is better than his best day in DC. The conversation then turns to debt and money. Massie unveils a debt badge he built with an electrical display that connects to treasury.gov to calibrate daily, calling it “the most accurate debt representation that you can have.” He cites a rough figure of “36.2 trillion” and warns that even at five percent interest, interest costs would amount to about sixteen thousand dollars per American family. He argues that current deficit spending robs future generations and even robs us five years from now. He recalls the COVID relief packages and says the 2020 stimulus was followed by more large spending, with much of the money flowing to corporations and banks rather than households. Massie criticizes omnibus legislation, defining it as “a single document that is accepted in a single vote by a legislator, but packages together several measures into one.” He advocates breaking big bills into separate votes and cites his own work on hemp farming as an example of getting a policy into law through agreement with both parties, even if his name is not on the final bill. He describes the difficulties of crediting legislators for results when leadership and lobbyists conceal who gets credit, and explains the two cloak rooms and the back rooms that shape votes. On governance, Massie introduces HR 2356, the Dual Loyalty Disclosure Act, which would require candidates to disclose dual citizenship and the foreign country involved. He discusses lobbying, distinguishing access lobbying from confrontational lobbying such as APAC, the American Israel Public Affairs Committee, and argues for transparency about foreign influence. He explains foreign policy concerns around Ukraine and Iran, suggesting that defense spending is sustained by a defense‑industrial base and arguing that the United States often acts to keep the military economy healthy. He closes with encouragement to voters to engage locally, advocate for separate bills, and call representatives directly to discuss issues, emphasizing accountability, bipartisanship, and the stubborn realities of Washington power.
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