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Mario asked Pepe Escobar for his take on the state of affairs, focusing on Venezuela and Iran, in the wake of dramatic developments including the alleged attack on Maduro-era Venezuela and broader upheavals in Iran, Russia, and beyond.
Pepe frames Venezuela as a desperate move connected to the demise of the petrodollar, with multiple overlapping headlines and actors maneuvering for advantage in a test of national security and regional influence. He says the United States has claimed Venezuela as “my backyard,” and questions whether Washington is prepared to back a fifth-column government in Venezuela or to overhaul the Venezuelan oil industry to serve American interests. He argues that reconstituting Venezuela’s energy sector to produce about 3 million barrels per day would require five years and roughly $183 billion in investment, and notes that American CEOs are not willing to spend that much without total investment guarantees. He suggests the White House lacked a coherent, forward-looking strategy for reorganizing Venezuela’s oil industry and that the ego of neoconservatism drove actions that lacked feasibility.
On the leadership dynamics, Pepe notes that Delcy Rodríguez, a seasoned Chavista negotiator and daughter of a revolutionary killed by the CIA, leads a government that prioritizes Venezuela’s interests over U.S. interests. He mentions that Maduro’s security head, previously said to be linked to the operation, was demoted rather than arrested, indicating an intelligence and political calculus aimed at explaining the leadership in a way domestic audiences can accept. He emphasizes that the regime remains, with Padrino López and other core figures still in place, and that the “regime change” dream from Trump’s team did not materialize as hoped. He suggests the regime change narrative was limited to a “mini Netflix special with full of special effects.”
Pepe shifts to the broader regional and global context, noting that Venezuela’s crisis intersects with Brazil’s Lula, BRICS dynamics, and US foreign policy. He asserts that Delcy Rodríguez’s negotiating skills could help Venezuela if the sanctions were lifted, and stresses the importance of popular support for her—reportedly over 90% of Venezuelans backing her. He argues that Latin American sentiment strongly rejects external interference, pointing to regional uproar over U.S. actions in Venezuela. He also discusses how Brazil’s stance within BRICS and Lula’s position affect Venezuela’s prospects for integration into BRICS, including Lula’s veto in BRICS discussions that blocked Venezuela from becoming a BRICS member.
Turning to the broader geopolitics, Pepe argues that the strategic landscape is dominated by three major players: Iran, Russia, and China. He explains that, unlike the United States, Russia and China respond to actions with measured, long-term strategies and emphasize concrete acts over rhetoric. He points to NATO attacks on Russia’s nuclear triad site and the Novgorod residence as pivotal events, arguing that Russia’s response is framed by a long-term calculus rather than immediate negotiations. He notes that China seeks to move global trade toward the yuan rather than the dollar, framing this as a de facto removal of dollar dominance rather than a formal currency replacement. He emphasizes that Iran is maneuvering under severe sanctions, with protests driven largely by economic grievances but potentially hijacked by foreign actors as seen in color-revolution playbooks, and that Iran’s leadership stresses long-term resilience and partnerships with Russia and China.
Pepe cautions that the Iran and Venezuela situations show a broader pattern: sanctions and mismanagement combine to create fragility, while external actors press their own strategic agendas. He warns that the instability in Iran and the ongoing Russia-Ukraine war create a dangerous, volatile environment, with the potential for a prolonged European and global conflict if escalation continues. He concludes with a bleak assessment for the near term, suggesting that the war in Ukraine could extend for years and that Europe faces mounting economic strain as it bears the costs of ongoing conflict. In sum, Pepe Escobar portrays Venezuela as a case where sanctions, strategic miscalculations, and competing powers intersect, while Iran, Russia, and China pursue longer-term, multilayered strategies that complicate Western-led attempts at regime change or coercive diplomacy.