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There is an old joke that goes God created war so that Americans would learn geography. In 2026, they seem to be learning it the hard way. They’ve discovered that 10,900 kilometers from Washington DC lies the Strait of Hormuz, the world’s most critical choke point, a narrow strip of water between the Persian Gulf and the Gulf of Oman that stretches 167 kilometers in length, narrows to just 34 kilometers at its tightest point, and carries roughly 30,000 vessels a year. Around a fifth of the world’s traded oil and LNG flows through this corridor on normal days.
Most of that oil heads to Asia, but oil prices don’t respect geography. They’re set globally. So when West Asia sneezes, fuel prices spike everywhere. Oil is only the start. Over 30% of global ammonia trade, nearly half of urea, and 20% of diammonium phosphate, key fertilizer inputs, move through this same choke point, along with about half the world’s sulfur for metal processing. If the sulfur didn’t arrive, the factory was shut down. It didn’t arrive because of the war and because the Strait of Hormuz was closed. Unlike oil, these can’t be rerouted. There are no pipelines for ammonia or urea. If Hormuz closes, the nitrogen supply chain doesn’t slow. It stops. And since synthetic nitrogen fertilizers support roughly 48% of the global population, missing the mid April application window in the Northern Hemisphere means lower yields by September.
Major importers like India, Brazil, Pakistan, Bangladesh, and many African countries would quickly face fertilizer shortages, leading to higher food prices, inflation, and a widespread food security crisis affecting billions. 85% of Brazil’s fertilizer is imported. And under these conditions, we can only bring part of the land under cultivation. Meanwhile, about a third of the world’s helium, critical for semiconductors and MRIs, passes through these strait. So does nearly 10% of global aluminum and a significant share of Persian Gulf produced plastics. Even the Persian Gulf states themselves are exposed. This passage is their food lifeline. The biggest one, Saudi Arabia, imports over 80% of its food. The smallest one, Qatar, 85%. If the strait stays closed for another month or two, the food situation here is gonna get really critical.
If anyone thinks the so called first world would be immune, the reality says otherwise. Since the war began, Brent crude has swung from $73 to nearly $120 at one point, adding about €500,000,000 per day in EU energy costs. In late April, the IEA warned Europe may have only six weeks of jet fuel left as West Asian imports falter. Prices have surged past $1,500 per ton. The IEA calls this “the greatest energy crisis in history.” By April 22, Lufthansa had canceled 20,000 flights with more disruptions and price hikes expected. In Germany, the industrial heart of Europe, 78.6% of firms report uncertainty about their future, rising to 87.7% in manufacturing and over 90% in chemicals, rubber, and plastics.
The US isn’t insulated either. Gas prices jumped more than $1 per gallon in just six weeks, surpassing $4.10, the highest level since 2022, while the Hormuz shock fuels inflation. They said the consumer price index rose 0.9% in March, almost 1% in just one month. I haven’t seen a jump like that in years.
Meanwhile, a Reuters/Ipsos poll put Trump’s approval rating at 36%, its lowest since his return to office. Forty-eight hours into the Iran war, marine insurers began canceling war risk coverage in the Persian Gulf. By March 5, commercial insurance had effectively vanished. No insurance means no shipping. No shipping means no trade.
This isn’t a new insight. Back in 1507, Portuguese admiral Alfonso de Albuquerque understood that Whoever controls this choke point controls the flow between India and the Mediterranean. And by extension, global trade itself. So far, the largest empire in history finds itself with remarkably little to say against one of the oldest. Perhaps this time, the Americans picked the wrong country to learn geography.