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According to CNN, three sources revealed an early US intelligence assessment stating that US military strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities last week did not destroy the core components of the country's nuclear program, likely setting it back only a few months. The assessment, from the Defense Intelligence Agency (DIA), was based on a battle damage assessment by US CENTCOM. White House press secretary Carolyn Leavitt acknowledged the assessment but stated the administration disagrees with it, calling the leak a "clear attempt to demean president Trump". The DIA assessment concludes that underground facilities, including centrifuges and enriched uranium, are largely intact. This contradicts statements from President Trump and Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth, who claimed Iran's ability to create nuclear weapons was "obliterated." Hegseth stated the bombs "hit exactly the right spot at each target and worked perfectly." CNN's sources emphasized that severe damage was done to above-ground structures, but the core components of the nuclear program remain largely intact.

Israel and the US have not destroyed Iran's nuclear capabilities; they've only blown up empty facilities. The US government admits they don't know where Iran's enriched uranium is. All centrifuges needed to produce nuclear weapons-grade material are secure in unknown facilities. Sensitive technology related to converting uranium hexafluoride into metal has been moved from the bombed Isfahan facility and safeguarded. Equipment destroyed in Natanz was not strategically important to Iran, as they were old centrifuges (IR-1s and IR-2s) that Iran was planning to replace. The IR-6s and IR-8s have been evacuated. Therefore, actions by Israel and the US have not hindered Iran's program. Claims that the Iranian program has been pushed back two or three years are false because Iran can quickly resume its nuclear program.

President Trump told Brett Baer that Iran cannot have a nuclear bomb and that he hopes to get back to the negotiating table. Trump was aware of Israel's action beforehand, and the US reached out to a key Middle Eastern ally to acknowledge the strike, clarifying that the US was not involved. There was building frustration about Iran's actions at the negotiating table. The US is looking to see what the retaliation may be, and CENTCOM is on high alert. The US will defend and help defend Israel if needed. There is hope this changes the dynamic for Iran, but the Supreme Leader stated this is the beginning of a major retaliation and that Israel has sealed its fate. US officials confirmed a number of top Iranian leaders are dead after the strikes. Natanz was struck, but not with the biggest penetrating bombs. The US military was not directly involved but had advanced knowledge.

President Trump was aware of Israel's actions beforehand, with no surprises. Trump stated, "Iran cannot have a nuclear bomb. We're hoping to get back to the negotiating table." Several Iranian leaders will not be returning. The Trump administration reached out to a key Middle Eastern ally to acknowledge the strike, clarifying the US was not involved, but the goal remains to get Iran back to negotiations. Steve Witkoff, the Middle East envoy, was scheduled for Sunday, but that may change. Trump is watching for Iran's retaliation. CENTCOM is on high alert, and the US will help defend Israel if needed; the Iron Dome has been replenished. There's hope this changes the dynamic for Iran, but the supreme leader posted that this is the beginning of a major retaliation and that Israel has sealed its fate. US officials confirm top Iranian leaders are dead. Natanz was struck, but not with the biggest bombs. The US military was not directly involved, but had advanced knowledge.

Speaker 1 claims Democrats are deliberately lying to the press about the operation carried out on Saturday night by President Trump. Speaker 1 attended a classified briefing with the Secretary of State, the Secretary of Defense, the head of the CIA, and the Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff. They reviewed the operation, which Speaker 1 says was a spectacular success. Speaker 1 notes that Israeli intelligence, the IAEA, and even the Iranians are talking about more devastation than a leaked report suggests.

Following unprecedented strikes against Iran's nuclear enrichment sites in Isfahan, Fordo, and Natanz, three B-2 bombers were involved, each carrying two 15-ton bunker-busting bombs. A flight of B-2s flew east, likely three of them, and annihilated Fordow's, likely destroying Iran's nuclear enrichment program. A separate flight of six B-2 bombers flew west over the Pacific, refueling over Hawaii, but these were decoys. Thirty Tomahawks were fired from a sub. President Trump has made clear for eleven years that Iran will not have a nuclear weapon, and tonight, he enforced it.

Following a ceasefire violation where Iran broke the truce first, Trump reportedly rebuked Netanyahu. Despite this, the ceasefire held, and Iran is allegedly at its weakest point since the eighties. While regime change in Iran isn't explicitly desired, the aim is for calm. Sanctions are supposedly strangling Iran, and the solution is to trade products, not rockets, with no nuclear weapons program. After Operation Midnight Hammers, Obama's former CIA director claimed Trump's credibility was shattered, stating Iran hasn't restarted its nuclear weapons program. However, others suggest the program was set back years due to the strikes, with the Pentagon reporting obliterated sites. CNN's reporting that the strikes weren't effective is refuted by the International Atomic Energy Agency, which stated the damage was significant. Trump criticized CNN for allegedly echoing enemy propaganda. Following the bombing campaign and ceasefire, Trump told Putin, "You're next." NATO allies are now reportedly paying their fair share.

The speaker reports speaking with the President of the United States and shares breaking details about a historic air campaign. According to the speaker, Iran's nuclear ambitions are now dead. The United States obliterated Iran's Fordo nuclear facility with five to six bunker buster bombs dropped from B-2 stealth bombers. Additionally, the Natanz and Estevan nuclear sites were wiped out with 30 Tomahawk missiles launched from American submarines. The speaker states that everyone is out of harm's way for now, but American assets in the region remain at risk. They are monitoring the potential Iranian response throughout the night and expect a statement from the president.

Iran's nuclear ambitions are officially dead after the United States obliterated Iran's top secret Fordo nuclear facility with five to six bunker buster bombs dropped from America's stealth B2 bombers. Two other major Iranian nuclear sites, Natanz and Estevan, were wiped out with 30 Tomahawk missiles launched by American submarines some 400 miles away. Everyone is out of harm's way for now, but American assets in the region are still at risk, and the Iranian response is being monitored.

Speaker 1 states that 20 years ago, the situation with Iraq was different because there were no weapons of mass destruction, and it was pre-nuclear age. Speaker 1 claims that Iran has gathered a tremendous amount of material and will be able to have a nuclear weapon within months, which "we can't let happen." When asked about intelligence that Iran is building a nuclear weapon, Speaker 1 claims that if the intelligence community says there is no evidence, then "my intelligence community is wrong." When told that the director of national intelligence, Tulsi Gabbard, said there was no evidence, Speaker 1 reiterated that "she's wrong." Speaker 1 denies helping Iran to stop reports of claims slamming Iran from China, stating that "they're there to take people out."

According to the transcript, US B2 bombers bombed Isfahan, Natanz, and Fordow, with the announcement of the attacks coming from Truth Social. Natanz, previously Iran's main enrichment site before Fordow was built, was targeted by Israeli jets in the last week but they were unable to penetrate underground. Natanz was also the site of the Stuxnet virus cyber attack. The president announced that three underground sites inside Iran's nuclear program were struck by the US Air Force. A full payload of bombs was dropped on the primary site, Fordow, suggesting multiple passes were made.

Following unprecedented strikes against Iran's nuclear enrichment sites in Isfahan, Fordo, and Natanz, it's reported that three B-2 bombers were involved, each carrying two 15-ton bunker-busting bombs. A flight of B-2s flying west over the Pacific and refueling over Hawaii at 11 PM were likely decoys. Another flight of three B-2s flew east, annihilated Fordow, and likely destroyed Iran's nuclear enrichment program. Thirty Tomahawks were fired from a submarine. President Trump has made clear for eleven years that Iran will not have a nuclear weapon, and tonight, he enforced it.

Intelligence warnings indicate Iran may target Al Udeid, the largest US air base in the Middle East, with missiles or drones. Embassies in Doha have ordered evacuations and shelter-in-place protocols, suggesting an imminent threat. Satellite images show the US moved unhangered aircraft from Al Udeid last week. The US operation involved seven B-2 bombers from Missouri, plus two decoy bombers over the Pacific. 125 US warplanes, including F-22s and F-35s, escorted the strike. Six B-2s dropped twelve massive ordnance penetrator bombs on Fordow, and a seventh B-2 dropped two 30,000-pound bombs on Natanz. 30 Tomahawk missiles from a submarine hit Isfahan. Officials estimate the strike set back Iran's nuclear program by one to two years, but the location of 900 pounds of highly enriched uranium is unknown. A retaliatory strike from Iran is expected, potentially sooner than the ten days it took after Soleimani's death in 2020. Troops and embassy personnel have been dispersed, and families sent home. Airspace above Al Udeid is closed.

The discussion centers on the alleged Iranian nuclear threat and the possibility of a U.S.-led or Israel-led military confrontation, with a mix of arguments about intelligence, strategy, and public appetite for war. - Recurrent warnings about Iran: The hosts note that for decades the U.S. government has warned Iran is on the brink of reconstituting a nuclear weapons program. They reference claims of “fresh intelligence” and “new evidence” of a renewed program, contrasting them with past warnings during the Obama, Trump, and Biden administrations. The tone suggests these claim cycles reappear with each new administration or set of negotiations. - Netanyahu and Iran timing: A compilation is shown of Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu stating over two decades that Iran has a nuclear program that could be imminent. One clip claims Iran could produce a weapon in a short time, with phrases like “weeks away,” “three to five years,” and even apocalyptic projections. The conversation then questions whether those warnings have come to fruition and whether media and public commentary have overstated the immediacy or impact of those claims. - Stuxnet and sanctions context: The moderator recalls that during the Bush era the U.S. launched Stuxnet against Iran’s centrifuges, and argues that Obama continued those efforts with sanctions; they portray sanctions as bipartisan pressure intended to justify claims about Iran’s nuclear ambitions. A guest mentions “demonic officials” and cites a book to underscore a harsh view of the two-term sanction era. - Diplomatic vs. military options: The panel describes the Biden administration sending negotiators to address the nuclear issue, while noting that “other options” exist. They discuss the tension between diplomacy and potential coercive measures, including the possibility of coalition or unilateral strikes. - Military balance and potential outcomes (Colonel Douglas MacGregor’s view): The guest emphasizes the complexity and risk of fighting Iran. He argues: - Iran is capable and not a “backward desert” opponent, with an arsenal including roughly 2,000 ballistic missiles and significant, varied air defenses. - Iranian forces could target U.S. bases and Israel, potentially inflicting substantial losses, though the duration and scale of any campaign are uncertain. - The aim would be to “disintegrate the state” and induce chaos rather than secure swift compliance; the scenario could produce high casualties among both sides, potentially thousands for Iran and substantial American losses, depending on scale and duration. - The long-term goal, he says, is to “make the region safe for Israel” and establish Israeli hegemony, noting the defensiveness and regional power dynamics in play, including rising concerns about Turkey as a threat. - Intelligence reliability and sources: A CIA veteran (John Kiriakou) challenges the immediacy and reliability of intelligence asserting that Iran reconstituted a nuclear program. He contends: - The Israelis and the U.S. have historically provided intelligence that may be biased toward aggressive action. - The CIA has produced intelligence estimates stating Iran did not have a nuclear weapons program; he questions whether boots-on-the-ground intelligence would confirm otherwise. - He emphasizes the risk that media outlets amplify “existential threat” narratives rooted in political calculations rather than verified evidence. - The domestic political-media dynamic: The discussion highlights perceived incentives for hawkish messaging from certain U.S. and Israeli actors, including prominent commentators who push the threat narrative. One commentator argues that the push for war serves particular political or financial interests, suggesting that public opinion in the U.S. is not aligned with an immediate military conflict. - Regional and alliance implications: The panel debates how a U.S.-led or Israeli-led strike would affect alliances, regional stability, and the global economy. They highlight: - The possibility that Iran could retaliate with volumes of missiles and unmanned systems, inflicting damage on Israel and regional targets. - The risk that a prolonged conflict could undermine NATO cohesion and Western diplomatic credibility in the Middle East and beyond. - Concerns about the effect on energy routes, particularly the Persian Gulf and the Strait of Hormuz, and broader economic ramifications. - Operational and logistical strains: They discuss the practical challenges of sustained conflict, including: - Navy and air defenses, the need for replenishment of carrier groups, and the strain on logistics and maintenance after extended deployments. - The impact of political missteps and controversial statements (such as comments linked to public pro-war stances) on alliances and military readiness. - Speculation on timing and signals: The guests speculate about when or whether a conflict might occur, noting that political leaders may face pressure “between now and March” or around certain holidays, while acknowledging uncertainty and the potential for last-minute changes. - Ending note: The conversation closes with a recognition that the set of actors—intelligence, defense officials, media, and political leaders—are collectively influencing public perception and policy directions. The speakers emphasize contrasting views on Iran’s threat, the legitimacy and consequences of potential war, and the stakes for the United States, Israel, and global stability.

Speaker 0 provides a characterization of recent events, alleging that the American people are being lied to by their government about what’s transpiring. He claims Iran has destroyed five radars, specifying two types: AN TPY and AN FPS. He states that one type costs $500,000,000 and the other two each cost a billion dollars. He asserts that these radars were located at the military base at Al Udeid and at the naval base in Bahrain, and that all have been bombed or attacked, with the Bahrain facility essentially destroyed. Speaker 0 emphasizes that these radars were critical for the air defense system because they would provide “the immediate warning that, oh, there’s been a missile launch. It’s going on this trajectory. This is where you need to be prepared to engage it,” and notes that they were tied into a system called THAAD (Terminal High Altitude Area Defense). He states there are “like a total of 10 THAAD batteries in the world,” and claims that Iran has destroyed three of those, representing “30% of our total number of THAADs in the world” in the last week. He continues by asserting that Iran has destroyed “about $4,000,000,000 worth of radars, in a week.” He adds that Iran is now regularly hitting Israel despite claims that the United States has “blown up their launchers.” He concludes by stating that authorities “continue to think that we can solve these problems with force instead of diplomacy.”

The speaker notes the operation's exceptional security, unseen in their 18 years at the Pentagon, with a complete information lockdown and empty hallways. Information is coming directly from the White House. Flight trackers indicated B2 takeoffs, but the timing was unexpected. The waning crescent moon provided ideal dark conditions for the bombing. B2s require escort due to their value and the possibility of Iranian response. Only the US military possesses the capability to execute such an operation, specifically targeting three uranium enrichment sites in Iran. The operation occurred within the two-week timeframe indicated by the president, announced via Truth Social with minimal leaks.

The US military carried out precision strikes on Iran's key nuclear facilities at Fordeaux, Natanz, and Esfahan, destroying Iran's nuclear enrichment capacity and stopping the nuclear threat posed by the world's number one state sponsor of terror. The strikes were a spectacular military success, and Iran must now make peace or face greater attacks. For forty years, Iran has been saying death to America, death to Israel, killing Americans and others. The speaker thanks and congratulates Prime Minister Bibi Netanyahu and the Israeli military, as well as the American patriots who flew the missions. Either there will be peace, or there will be tragedy for Iran far greater than what has been witnessed. If peace does not come quickly, the US will go after other targets with precision, speed, and skill. No other military in the world could have done what the US did. General Cain and Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth will hold a press conference at 8AM at the Pentagon. The speaker thanks God and asks for protection for the military.

Leaking information is treasonous and should be investigated, with those responsible held accountable. Damage assessment reports indicate three Iranian facilities were targeted. The Isfahan conversion facility, reportedly Iran's only such facility, was destroyed with a 30,000-pound bunker buster, eliminating their conversion opportunity and ability to weaponize enriched material. At Natanz, the underground reactor was "eviscerated," and another bomb was dropped on the already damaged above-ground reactor to ensure its destruction. Fordow was hit with 12 bunker buster bombs, breaching the canopy and obliterating the facility. Reports suggesting the objectives weren't achieved are "completely preposterous."

US intelligence assessments contradict claims that Iran is only weeks away from a nuclear bomb, estimating they are three years away from producing one if they chose to. The claim that Iran is weeks away from a nuclear bomb does not align with facts. Actions taken only set back the Iranian nuclear program by months.

Larry Johnson, a former CIA analyst, joins the program to discuss the dramatic developments in the war against Iran. The conversation centers on the strike on Karg Island, the strategic choke point for Iran’s oil exports, and the broader implications of escalating U.S. actions. - Karg Island and the oil threat: The host notes that Karg Island handles 90% of Iran’s oil exports and asks why Trump isn’t targeting this area. Johnson argues the attack on Karg Island makes little strategic sense and points out that Iran has five oil terminals; destroying one would not end Iran’s potential revenue. He emphasizes that the U.S. bombed the runway of the major airport on the island, which he says remains irrelevant to Iran’s overall capacity to generate revenue. He notes the runway damage would not support U.S. objectives for invading the island, given runway length constraints (6,000 feet measured vs. need for 3,500–3,700 feet for certain aircraft) and the limited air force in Iran. Johnson asserts that Iran has indicated it would retaliate against oil terminals and Gulf neighbors if oil resources or energy infrastructure are attacked. - Economic and strategic consequences of closing the Strait of Hormuz: Johnson states that the action effectively shut the Strait of Hormuz, cutting off 20% of the world’s oil supply, 25% of global LNG, and 35% of the world’s urea for fertilizer. He explains fertilizer’s criticality to global agriculture and notes that rising gas and diesel prices in the United States would impact consumer costs, given many Americans live paycheck to paycheck. He suggests the price hikes contribute to inflationary pressure and could trigger a global recession, especially since Persian Gulf countries are pivotal energy suppliers. He also points out that the U.S. cannot easily reopen Hormuz without unacceptable losses and that Iran has prepared for contingencies for thirty years, with robust defenses including tunnels and coastal fortifications. - Military feasibility and strategy: The discussion covers the impracticality of a U.S. ground invasion of Iran, given the size of Iran’s army and the modern battlefield’s drone and missile threats. Johnson notes the U.S. Army and Marine numbers, the logistical challenges of sustaining an amphibious or airborne assault, and the vulnerability of American ships and troops to drones and missiles. He highlights that a mass deployment would be highly costly and dangerous, with historical evidence showing air power alone cannot win wars. The hosts discuss limited U.S. options and the possible futility of attempts to seize or occupy Iran’s territory. - Internal U.S. decision-making and DC dynamics: The program mentions a split inside Washington between anti-war voices and those pressing toward Tehran, with leaks suggesting that top officials warned Trump about major obstacles and potential losses. Johnson cites a leak from the National Intelligence Council indicating regime change in Tehran is unlikely, even with significant U.S. effort. He asserts the Pentagon’s credibility has been questioned after disputed reports (e.g., the KC-135 shootdown) and notes that Trump’s advisors who counsel restraint are being sidelined. - Iranian retaliation and targets: The discussion covers Iran’s targeting of air defenses and critical infrastructure, including radars at embassies and bases in the region, and the destruction of five Saudi air refueling tankers, which Trump later dismissed as fake news. Johnson says Iran aims to degrade Israel economically and militarily, while carefully avoiding mass civilian casualties in some instances. He observes Iran’s restraint in striking desalination plants, which would have caused a humanitarian catastrophe, suggesting a deliberate choice to keep certain targets within bounds. - Global realignments and the role of Russia, China, and India: The conversation touches on broader geopolitical shifts. Johnson argues that Russia and China are offering alternatives to the dollar-dominated order, strengthening ties with Gulf states and BRICS members. He suggests Gulf allies may be considering decoupling from U.S. security guarantees, seeking to diversify away from the petrodollar system. The discussion includes India’s position, noting Modi’s visit to Israel and India’s balancing act amid U.S. pressure and Iran relations; Iran’s ultimatum to allow passage for flag vessels and its diplomacy toward India is highlighted as a measured approach, even as India’s stance has attracted scrutiny. - Israel, casualties, and the broader landscape: The speakers discuss Israeli casualties and infrastructure under sustained Iranian strikes, noting limited information from within Israel due to media constraints and possible censorship. Johnson presents a game-theory view: if Israel threatens a nuclear option, Iran might be compelled to develop a nuclear capability as a deterrent, altering calculations for both Israel and the United States. - Terrorism narrative and historical context: The speakers challenge the U.S. portrayal of Iran as the world’s top sponsor of terrorism, arguing that ISIS and the Taliban have caused far more deaths in recent years, and that Iran’s responses to threats have historically prioritized restraint. They emphasize Iran’s chemical weapons restraint during the Iran-Iraq war, contrasting it with U.S. and Iraqi actions in the 1980s. - Final reflections: The discussion emphasizes the cascade effects of the conflict, including potential impacts on Taiwan’s energy and semiconductor production, multiplied by China’s leverage, and Russia’s increasing global influence. Johnson warns that the war’s end will likely be achieved through shifting alignments and economic realignments rather than a conventional battlefield victory, with the goal of U.S. withdrawal from the region as part of any settlement. The conversation closes with mutual thanks and a reaffirmation of ongoing analysis of these evolving dynamics.