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We were all hopeful when we heard the vaccine was 95% effective, thinking it was our way out. But maybe we were too optimistic and not cautious enough. We didn't consider the possibility of the vaccine wearing off or being less effective against future variants.

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When the government told us vaccinated people couldn't get the virus, were they guessing or lying? There was evidence of natural reinfection during the pandemic. Since the vaccine was based on natural immunity, one can't definitively say vaccination is superior to natural infection, even if it's often slightly better. I can't rule out the possibility that the government wasn't truthful when they stated vaccinated individuals couldn't contract the virus. While I ensured my susceptible family members were vaccinated, we still used layered protection during surges, knowing vaccine immunity could wane. The hope was that the vaccine would prevent transmission. Scientists and public health leaders must clearly communicate what's known versus what's hoped. When the government said the vaccinated couldn't get it, it wasn't the truth, but possibly a guess, a lie, or just hope.

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As a scientist, it's important to be criticized and hold science to a high standard. However, this doesn't work well in the public health arena. The example of the bivalent vaccine showed that it wasn't any better than the previous vaccine due to the original antigenic sin problem. Public health officials kept pushing it as better, causing a divisive climate. The recent recommendation for boosters also sparked controversy, as the United States recommends it for everyone over 6 months, while other countries have targeted recommendations for high-risk groups. Nuanced messages get lost in the current climate, but it's important to explain recommendations carefully to the public.

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The speaker expresses disappointment that the existence of myocarditis was known very early on. They claim to have written to Fauci in 2020 and 2021 about lymphopenia and the failure to clear the virus, asserting that this failure was also known early on. The speaker states the perception of 95% efficacy was inaccurate and suggests there were perverse incentives at play, and now the consequences must be recognized. Another speaker then states that this is why Fauci needed a pardon.

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Vaccines are seen as magical but expectations should be tempered. Pfizer's vaccine is 95% effective, but efficacy drops over time. Boosters may be needed annually. Moderna is working on a combined flu and COVID vaccine. The future is uncertain, but we must adapt.

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One speaker states that you cannot conclude vaccines will do better than natural infection, although they can often do slightly better. When asked if the government lied about vaccinated people not getting the virus, the speaker responded that they don't know about the task force's discussions. They vaccinated their susceptible family members but still used layered protection during surges, knowing vaccine immunity could wane like natural immunity, with reinfection occurring every four months in South Africa. When asked if the government's claim that the vaccine prevented transmission was a lie or a guess, the speaker said it was hope. They added that the original phase three trials only measured symptomatic disease, not proactively testing for mild or asymptomatic infections, so there was never data showing protection against asymptomatic infection. Another speaker expressed frustration that government agencies were guessing, hoping, or lying to the American people, calling them the biggest purveyors of misinformation.

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A meme showing the evolution of CNN headlines about the COVID vaccine went viral. The headlines started with positive statements about vaccine protection, but gradually changed to include recommendations for masks, additional doses, and doubts about effectiveness. The speaker questions the claim that the vaccine is effective and criticizes the idea that questioning or opposing it is anti-science. They mention a video where FDA experts admit they don't know if the vaccine is safe for children aged 5 to 11, yet it was still approved. The speaker concludes by suggesting that if this is science, then science is uncertain.

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During the COVID-19 pandemic, there was a missed opportunity to educate the public about scientific concepts. The speaker believes that explanations were lacking, particularly regarding the meaning of statistics like "95% effectiveness" for tests and vaccines. Different scientific methodologies were not adequately explained, leading to unnecessary controversies. The wrong people were given a platform, and only epidemiologists should have been consulted. The speaker emphasizes that scientists are not infallible, objective, or immune to influence. Instead, they should strive for honesty in a specific sense.

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The speaker acknowledges that the vaccine did not completely stop the spread or infection, but clarifies that initially it did for the Wuhan strain and the alpha strain. Early data and literature published in the New England Journal showed that those who were vaccinated and didn't get infected were not transmitting the virus to others. The vaccine had a high efficacy of up to 96% early on and this efficacy did not change over time.

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The speaker reflects on the initial excitement and optimism when news broke that the vaccine was 95% effective. They acknowledge that many people, including themselves, wanted to believe that this was the end of the pandemic. However, they admit that perhaps there was too little caution and too much optimism. They highlight that nobody considered the possibility of vaccine effectiveness waning or the potential challenges posed by future variants.

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The speaker discusses the arrival of the vaccine and its effectiveness in preventing transmission. They mention that the vaccine was a pleasant surprise for the medical community, as it initially seemed to protect against severe forms of the virus and transmission. However, further observations revealed that the vaccine's duration of protection was relatively short, especially in older individuals, and its ability to limit transmission was limited. The speaker acknowledges that they and the scientific council may have made mistakes in their understanding of the vaccine's effects. They also address concerns about the vaccine's safety and emphasize the importance of ongoing monitoring. Overall, the vaccine provided some protection against severe forms of the virus but did not meet expectations in terms of transmission prevention.

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I made it clear that my children were immunized with childhood vaccines. Public health failed to explain that COVID vaccines are different. Childhood vaccines, like for many diseases, provide immunity after one dose by giving children the disease without the deadly consequences. The COVID vaccine wasn't designed to prevent infection. Vaccine hesitancy has doubled since COVID, and we need to address these concerns. The mRNA vaccine should have been prioritized for those at high risk of severe disease, as the science and data indicated. We should have protected the elderly and those with comorbidities first. It went into young people before the elderly and nursing homes. We need to align public health actions with science and data. When we don't, we fracture trust with the American people.

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Vaccines are seen as magical, but expectations may need to be lowered. Pfizer's vaccine is 95% effective, but efficacy rates can fluctuate. Protection may only last a year, requiring annual shots. Moderna is working on a combined flu and COVID vaccine. The future is uncertain, but there is hope for improvement in the next 5 years.

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During COVID, I was on the board of my kids' school and initially supported a strict lockdown policy. However, I now realize that keeping kids out of school for longer had a greater negative impact than the risks. We all operated with imperfect information, including myself, the CDC, and the governor. Let's learn from this and hold each other accountable while showing grace and forgiveness. Unfortunately, about 1 in 5 US adults are unwilling to get vaccinated, making them the global runner-up in vaccine hesitancy. This means roughly 56 million Americans are 11 times more likely to die from COVID than the rest of the population. It's embarrassing that some Americans are playing Russian roulette with their lives and the lives of others. Despite this, America's healthcare response to COVID has been a victory, thanks to the vaccines.

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Speaker 0 and Speaker 1 discuss the COVID-19 vaccine episode, challenging why the vaccine was pursued as a public health solution and exploring deeper incentives behind the program. - A knowledgeable figure at the stand answered a burning question: did they know the vaccine wouldn’t be effective from the start and could be dangerous? The answer given was that it was “a test of a technology.” The exchange suggests the broader aim was testing an entire program of control previewed in Event 2019. - They ask whether inoculation was necessary on billions, noting it could have been tested on a much smaller population. If shots had been basically empty or inert, the data could have been spun to claim success and end the pandemic, preventing injuries from appearing. The absence of that approach remains a mystery. - The speakers point to high pre-vaccine seroprevalence in 2020, including studies from South Dakota showing 50-60% seroprevalence before vaccine release, implying that a saline shot or no shot could have achieved “indomicity” (immunity) without a vaccine. - They discuss why people might fear vaccines and interpret the broader impact: the public is waking up to something terrible having occurred, as it revealed readiness to lie, potential data quality concerns, and risk to pregnant women and healthy children who might get little justification for risk. - The disease’s lethality is framed as greatest among the very old or very sick; for others, it was less deadly, with natural evolution potentially reducing vulnerability over time. - The mRNA platform was touted as a means to outrun mutations, but the timeline to release was still insufficient to stay ahead of natural change. They note accelerated development was the fastest vaccine in history, from detection to inoculation, reducing the timeline by about a year or two, yet not fast enough. - Political and logistical factors delayed release; there is mention that it would not have appeared under Trump and that Eric Topol argued to delay the rollout. Fauci reportedly sent Moderna back to trials due to insufficient racial diversity in participants. - The discussion questions whether the vaccine qualifies as a normal consumer product, given ongoing subsidies, mandates, indemnifications, wartime-like supports, and propaganda. They wonder if there has been an ongoing two-century revolt by industry against public scrutiny, with public interest repeatedly leading to pushback and rebranding. - A central theme is the sophistication of pharma: the “game of pharma” involves owning an IP-based health claim, crafting supportive research, convincing it is safe and effective, achieving standard-of-care status, securing mandates and government funding, and leveraging ongoing propaganda. They describe pharma as a long-running arms race with deep institutional knowledge, implying that it is far more capable of shaping reality than the public realizes.

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They claimed high effectiveness based on one COVID death in the vaccinated group versus two in the unvaccinated, out of 22,000 people. But effective for what, exactly? They kept saying it was a certain percentage effective, but the point was to negate the severity. I remember seeing videos of Fauci, Biden, Gates, and Bourla saying that if you take the vaccine, you can't get or pass COVID. If you want, I can even play the video for you. Regardless, it doesn't matter what Rachel Maddow says.

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The Pfizer COVID vaccine was not tested for its ability to stop the transmission of the virus before it entered the market. The speaker acknowledges that they had to work quickly to understand the situation and move at the speed of science.

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The speaker acknowledges that the vaccine did not completely stop the spread or infection, but clarifies that initially it did for the Wuhan strain and the alpha strain. Early data and literature published in the New England Journal showed that those who were vaccinated and didn't get infected were not transmitting the virus to others. The vaccine had a high efficacy of up to 96% early on and this efficacy did not change over time.

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There is a discussion about how public trust in vaccination has changed since the pandemic. The speaker notes that years ago there were “five people in the world who were prepared to talk about the thorny issue of vaccination.” Post COVID, however, “half the adult population of the world are now saying, hold on, we don't trust you. You lied to us. It's not what you told us, safe and effective.” This skepticism extends to vaccines given to children, with the question, “Does this apply to all the other vaccines you're putting into my kids?” The speaker then asserts that “safety studies haven't been done,” suggesting that important research behind vaccines is incomplete or lacking. This leads to the claim that “they've created this mess for themselves.” Despite the frustration, the speaker emphasizes the moral weight of deception, stating, “it's really tough to lie. I mean, lying gets you into real trouble.”

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The speaker acknowledges that the vaccine did not completely stop the spread or infection, but clarifies that initially it did for the Wuhan strain and the alpha strain. Early data and literature published in the New England Journal showed that those who were vaccinated and didn't get infected were not transmitting the virus to others. The vaccine had a high efficacy of up to 96% early on and this efficacy did not change over time.

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I made it clear that my children received childhood immunizations. The issue is we failed to communicate that COVID vaccines differ significantly from childhood vaccines, which typically provide lasting immunity after one dose. The COVID vaccine was not designed to prevent infection. Vaccine hesitancy has doubled since COVID, and we must address this. The mRNA vaccines should have prioritized individuals at high risk for severe disease, aligning with the scientific data. We should have protected the elderly and those in nursing homes first. Prioritizing young people in hospitals before the elderly was not following the science. Public health actions must align with scientific data to maintain the trust of the American people.

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We developed vaccines, like the Ameila vaccine, in just nine months. It's fast, considering the uncertainties surrounding vaccines. Initially, we made a mistake by claiming they protect against transmission, but they actually provide limited protection. As a result, repeated vaccinations are necessary due to their relatively short lifespan.

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The speaker questions whether the government was guessing or lying when they said that vaccinated individuals couldn't get the virus. The other speaker, who was part of the previous administration, acknowledges that there was evidence of natural reinfection during the global pandemic and that the vaccine was based on natural immunity. They suggest that the vaccine may not necessarily outperform natural infection. The first speaker then asks if the government was lying when they said the vaccine couldn't transmit the virus, to which the second speaker responds that it was more of a hopeful belief. The first speaker concludes that the government's statements were not truthful, leaving the options of guessing, lying, or hoping as possible explanations.

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Scientists and the general public initially followed the guidance of Fauci and the NIH without question, while demonizing those who suggested the Lab Leak theory. However, now the theory is widely accepted, along with many other previously censored conspiracies. People believed they were doing the right thing by following guidelines to stop the spread of the virus, but we need to remember what happened. The speaker emphasizes the importance of not forgetting this playbook for future situations. They mention Bill Gates' actions and how he withdrew his investment in a company and started downplaying the vaccine's effectiveness. They also note the disappearance of the flu and warn against forgetting these events.

Armchair Expert

Steven Pinker Returns (on common knowledge) | Armchair Expert with Dax Shepard
Guests: Steven Pinker
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Common knowledge binds groups more tightly than private belief alone. Steven Pinker explains private knowledge versus common knowledge, showing that common knowledge is the chain: I know that you know that I know. He illustrates with rock-paper-scissors, the emperor’s new clothes, and everyday language. When something is conspicuously public, it becomes common knowledge and enables coordination—from a coffee rendezvous to mass protests. He emphasizes tracking data rather than chasing headlines, arguing that long-run trends in health, poverty, and life expectancy show progress even as today’s news highlights danger. He cites Our World in Data and real-world metrics: war deaths, longevity, maternal mortality, and child survival. The conversation notes that democracy has improved over centuries but has leveled off more recently, and that conflicts such as Gaza, Ukraine, and Sudan test that progress. COVID becomes a case study in science communication: vaccines helped, but calibration of confidence and risk remains essential. From there the talk turns to focal points and conventions that solve coordination problems. Thomas Schelling’s clock at Grand Central Station becomes a model for aligning actions without explicit agreement. Lines on maps, borders, and round-number focal points can reduce conflict even when boundaries are imperfect. The stock market is described as a beauty contest: investors guess what others will pick, fueling memes and network effects, including the GameStop frenzy and crypto advertising that relies on social momentum rather than intrinsic product value. Pinker ties this to Super Bowl ads, where common knowledge justifies a premium and turn mass attention into social proof. He contrasts anonymous gifts with reputation-driven philanthropy, citing David Pins’ taxonomy of status signals and the way people seek social approval. He also discusses how donors balance recognition with impact, showing the social dynamics behind generosity. The third thread probes science, politics, and AI. Academia’s perceived liberal tilt is debated with a defense of free speech and Mill’s warning that truth benefits from criticism, even when experts err. He critiques COVID communication and argues for cautious calibration under uncertainty, plus the costs and benefits of policy choices. He cautions against deplatforming that stifles knowledge, insisting that inquiry should remain open even amid disagreement. On AI, he argues against existential panic, noting that AI is a crafted tool rather than a sentient force, and progress depends on design and regulation. The talk closes with a central claim: progress comes from maintaining common knowledge and coordination, leveraging data, and preserving open inquiry, even as disagreement persists.
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