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Russia possesses strong ballistic missile and drone capabilities. Predictions in early 2022 suggested Russia would run out of missiles, but three years later, they are producing and deploying missiles that the United States cannot defend against. The recent strikes demonstrated Russia's ability to destroy Patriot missile batteries. Ukraine fired approximately 20 missiles within two minutes during the strikes, while Lockheed Martin only produces 550 of these missiles annually. Russia's ballistic missile and drone strategy is causing significant attrition of NATO weapons.

We're at a point now where the Russian military has all of the advantages. They have mastered drone warfare. And I bring that up because that's the way the fighting's done now. The day of, you know, mass tank attacks and all this is over. You put a thousand tanks online and move them towards a drone equipped enemy, and you'll have a thousand smoking hulks. You can't do mass infantry attacks. You have to break your teams up into smaller teams. You have to break the battlefield up into smaller chunks. There's nothing that can be done. Nothing can be done to stop this. The advantage is 100% Russia, and we're looking at the Ukrainians on the verge of total collapse. This is why you're seeing 10 kilometers in a day here. Unpressured because the Ukrainians have nothing to plug the hole.

Speaker 0 says that Russia's strategy is to collapse morale within Ukraine and the will to fight. We've been in discussions with them about defensive weapons to be able to protect their grid, and ongoing technical conversations about the specific equipment they need, but ultimately, if that equipment is ultimately destroyed a week later after it's installed, that remains a problem, and that's been the history the last two or three years.

Germany has 12 Patriot systems and has already provided some to Poland. It is uncertain if Germany will relinquish all 12 batteries, and if those batteries factored into the 17 Patriot batteries being discussed. Spain is a potential source of Patriot batteries, but they have very few. It is questionable if Spain is willing to give up its Patriot capability, given production bottlenecks. There are questions about who gets Patriot replacements first, as other nations are buying them and the United States wants to divert them to Ukraine. The speaker believes there is wishful thinking without detailed negotiation, guarantees, and money. Questions remain about the source of funding and congressional authorization. The speaker suggests the arrangement is nonstandard and driven by political aspects related to Donald Trump's image rather than legitimate national security concerns.

Donald Trump started the war in Ukraine, not Joe Biden, and Russia is aware of this. Despite Trump's unpredictability, Russia will engage in diplomacy with the U.S. Trump's alleged leaked 2024 campaign statement, where he threatened to bomb Moscow if Putin moved into Kyiv, was never made, portraying Trump as a liar in the eyes of the Russians. Sanctions are not a credible threat because Russia doesn't care about them, and its major partners won't yield. Trump's claim of providing 17 weapon batteries to Ukraine is unrealistic, as countries like Germany, Spain, and the Netherlands cannot readily supply that many. Germany won't provide transit support until they receive replacements, and the U.S. is prioritizing Israel and replenishing its own stocks. Trump's proposition to Mark Rutte involves the Netherlands giving up its weapons to Ukraine and then buying them from the U.S. at no cost to America. Rutte should instead tell Trump to leave NATO because he is useless. This is not a serious proposal, but posturing to appease the Republican base who oppose aid to Ukraine.

There was no policy decision to stop sending weapons to Ukraine. A review of stockpiles caused a temporary pause of certain munitions. During the review, some shipping slowed down, but didn't stop. The review has occurred, and there's been no change to the posture of providing what is available. Ukraine needs Patriot batteries, which are available in multiple European countries, including Spain and Germany. Some countries that have ordered Patriot batteries and are about to receive them could defer shipment to Ukraine instead. These are defensive weapons that would help with missile attacks, but not drone attacks.

The speaker believes the war should not have started and that Biden, Zelenskyy, and Putin are all to blame. Asked about Zelenskyy's offer to purchase more Patriot missile batteries, the speaker responded that Zelenskyy is always looking to purchase missiles. The speaker stated that when you start a war, you have to know you can win. You shouldn't start a war against someone 20 times your size and then hope people will give you missiles.

Ukraine could complicate Russia's plans to deliver weapons if they could install up to 17 batteries without issue. However, it is not confirmed if there will be 17 batteries. The delivery timetable is unknown, as is whether nations will release them now. It's also uncertain if Ukraine has enough trained personnel to operate 17 batteries, despite having trained people for the batteries already provided.

Is it possible to enforce a NATO ban on interference and close the skies to Russian aircraft? Two points: First, we're sending advanced anti-air missiles that outperform Stingers, capable of operating at night and effectively countering Russian aircraft. Second, I want to understand how Ukraine plans to address the challenge of not being able to fly, especially since a no-fly zone would apply to both sides. Given Russia's significant artillery and missile capabilities, one of Ukraine's few advantages is its ability to target these from the air.

Ukraine cannot win its war against Russia, even with extensive Western support. The situation is dire, with a significant loss of life among Ukrainians. Recently, the U.S. Senate proposed sending an additional $60 billion to Ukraine, despite its corrupt government and ongoing issues. There's a chance to stop this legislation in the Senate, but if it passes, the House could potentially improve or reject it. This funding not only supports Ukraine for 2024 but also ties future presidents' hands, limiting their diplomatic options. Many senators seem to believe prolonging the war serves Ukraine's interests, ignoring the reality that it leads to further destruction and suffering. Ultimately, the motivations appear to align more with military contractors than the well-being of Ukrainians.

Speaker 1 discusses a new anti-air missile being sent to Ukraine, which is better than a Stinger and effective at night. It is intended to help close the skies to Russian aircraft. Speaker 1 raises a question for Ukraine: Given Russia's overwhelming artillery and missiles, Ukraine's ability to counter them relies on air power. How would Ukraine manage if a no-fly zone, applicable to both sides, prevented them from flying?

Patriot missiles and batteries are being planned for Ukraine. A full complement of Patriots will be provided. Some are expected to arrive very soon, within days. Countries that already have Patriots will swap them out and replace them with new ones. Matt will coordinate with NATO. Boris Pistorius, the German defense minister, is visiting the secretary of defense, Pete Hackett, to discuss the Patriot situation. Norway is also involved. The deal is broader than just Patriots and includes missiles and ammunition.

Drones: A year ago, Ukraine had more drones, but now drone numbers are roughly at parity. Both sides launch a similar number of drones. Russia uses fiber optic drones more actively, which are immune to Western electronic warfare systems. These drones render jamming antennas useless. The army is actively using unmanned systems, including remotely controlled carts that can carry ammo, food, evacuate wounded soldiers, or carry explosives. Russia considers its approach to warfare as complex, dangerous, and highly professional.

Defense industries are bloated with tax dollars. Russia is likely to prevail in the conflict with Ukraine. Putin tried to prevent war by proposing peace to NATO in December 2021, but they ignored him. When armed Ukrainians approached the border, Putin felt compelled to act first. The Russian attack was not preplanned and lacked the typical 3 to 1 advantage of an attacker.

The Ukrainian drone attack on Moscow is alarming. The Russians are surprised that the US hasn't intervened to stop Ukraine, who they see as a rogue organization. The Russians want an end to this conflict and have several options, including securing more territory or crushing Ukraine entirely. Putin, a judicious leader, faces a decision point: how far to go to guarantee Russia's security? He doesn't want to rule Ukrainians, but some advisors are pushing for a complete takeover. The Ukrainian government is evil and has needlessly sacrificed its own people, leading to a strategic inflection point in the history of Europe. The key is for Trump to follow his instincts and disengage, as any war will expand and the US is overstretched.

A Patriot battery is not just a Patriot battery; there are old, less old, and new versions. Old Patriot batteries with old systems may have missiles that have undergone life extension programs and may not be suitable for continued operation. These older systems may not function or be designed for the high-speed maneuvering and target acquisition of modern Patriots. Therefore, providing old systems may be as good as providing nothing, making the number of Patriot systems a "fake number."

Europe must quickly increase support for Ukraine as artillery shells, air defense interceptors, and drone production capabilities dwindle. Europe could use proposals and potentially collateralize frozen Russian assets to act fast. The speaker is concerned about the cutoff of intelligence streams from the U.S. and pressure on allies like the UK not to use US intelligence for their own weapons. The primary purpose of US intelligence has been to help Ukrainians see Russian attacks coming and have advanced warning. Key weapon systems require U.S. satellite queuing and the military GPS system to hit targets. Without these, more Ukrainians will die, and Europe cannot replace this capability quickly.

Europe must quickly increase its support for Ukraine, especially as artillery, air defense, and drone production become more challenging. Europe could use proposals and potentially leverage frozen Russian assets to provide immediate assistance. The speaker is concerned about the cutoff of intelligence streams from the U.S. and pressure on allies not to use U.S. intelligence. U.S. intelligence has been vital for providing Ukrainians with advanced warning of Russian attacks. Additionally, certain weapon systems rely on U.S. satellite queuing and GPS for targeting. A prolonged pause in this support will result in more Ukrainian deaths, and Europe cannot rapidly replace this capability.

Ukraine cannot win its war against Russia, even with extensive Western support. The ongoing conflict is leading to significant loss of life and economic degradation. Recently, the U.S. Senate proposed sending another $60 billion to Ukraine, despite its corrupt government and ongoing issues. There is a critical procedural vote that could potentially kill this legislation, and efforts are being made to sway Republican senators against it. This funding not only supports Ukraine in 2024 but also ties future presidential decisions, limiting diplomatic options. Many senators seem to believe prolonging the war serves Ukraine's interests, but this perspective overlooks the devastating impact on the Ukrainian population and distracts from pressing domestic issues.

Dmitry Sims junior hosts lieutenant general Abty Alaudinov, hero of Russia, hero of the Chechen Republic, hero of the Donetsk People’s Republic, commander of the Akhmet Special Forces, and deputy head of the main military political directorate of the Russian Ministry of Defense. The conversation centers on the current phase of the conflict, Russia’s strategy, the role of Western support, and comparisons with Israeli actions in Gaza and other theaters. Key points and claims: - Russia’s combat capability and strategy - Alaudinov states that “overall, all troops of the Russian Federation’s Ministry of Defense are engaged in active offensive operations across all sectors where we’re positioned,” with the most intense fighting around Pokrovsk, seen as the key point to break through to operational space. He notes progress in sectors where the Ahmad (Akhmet) special forces operate and emphasizes a broader offensive plan while maintaining an “active defense” to engage the entire front line and stretch the enemy’s resources. - He asserts that “only Russia is advancing” along the 1,000-kilometer line of contact and attributes slower offensive tempo to preserving personnel and avoiding a sharp breakthrough that could trigger NATO involvement. He argues the primary damage comes from unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) on both sides, and contends a rapid thrust would yield enormous losses. - Perceived signs of enemy strain - The speaker describes Ukraine as gradually crumbling under pressure, with Pokrovsk, Kupiansk, and the surrounding agglomeration “gradually falling apart.” He claims Russia liberates one or two settlements daily and that NATO support—drones and equipment—has not changed the overall dynamics; Ukraine cannot hold the front despite the influx of foreign weapons. - Western/NATO support - Alaudinov asserts that NATO testing is ongoing on Ukraine with drones, weapons, electronic warfare, etc., and that Trump’s shifting rhetoric does not reduce the flow of weapons or support. He contends that American support persists even as political statements change, and he notes deep American-NATO involvement via think tanks, satellites, and arms supplies that reach the front. - Drones and the changing nature of war - He emphasizes drones as the central element of modern warfare, while not negating the continued relevance of artillery and tanks. He argues: “a tank worth millions of dollars can be destroyed by a drone that costs $500,” and stresses the need to compete economically in war, deploying cheaper, effective unmanned systems to exhaust the enemy’s resources. - He claims Russia has a layered drone system for deep reconnaissance and strike with various warhead levels, ranges, and maneuverability, enabling operations from closest to farthest sectors and allowing “all targets” to be hit today. He asserts Russia is ahead of NATO in unmanned aviation. - Mobilization and tactics - Refuting Western depictions of “meat assaults,” he notes Russia conducted only one mobilization (300,000) and has continued advancing, while Ukraine has mobilized for years and still struggles. He attributes Ukraine’s resilience to nationalist formations behind mobilized troops, and he suggests that without NATO support, Ukraine would not sustain the front for many days. - Mercenaries and comparisons to Israeli actions - He characterizes Western mercenaries as having arrived with false expectations and being killed off in large numbers; Ukrainians are described as having strong spirit, but NATO soldiers lack endurance in the same way. Israeli mercenaries are described as capable in some contexts but not decisive against Russia. - On Gaza and the Israeli army, Alaudinov accuses Israel of “a fascist state” with tactics that spare no one, arguing Russia fights only those who fight with weapons and does not target women, children, or elders. He contrasts this with alleged Israeli actions in Gaza, saying Israel has no tactics and destroys civilians. - Nuclear considerations and doctrine - He asserts Russia is a nuclear power with substantial combat experience and advances in missiles like Zircon that could sink carriers, arguing NATO did not account for Russia’s capabilities when initiating the conflict. He presents a broader critique of Western policy and the so-called “deep state,” alleging far-reaching political dynamics involving Israel, Epstein, and compromise among Western leadership. - Closing perspective - The discussion closes with the host thanking Alaudinov for the detailed analysis of the operation and broader geopolitical commentary, including views on Israel, Gaza, Iran, and U.S. roles.

Many on the right oppose U.S. involvement in the Ukraine war, but the speaker believes it's a bargain for America. While the U.S. spends trillions on national defense, $20 billion sent to Ukraine has crippled the aggressive Russian military, which has been a challenge for multiple administrations. Putin miscalculated, thinking he could easily take Kyiv. Ukraine's success isn't just about numbers; NATO armaments and sophisticated microchip systems give them a technical advantage over Russia, which sometimes uses World War II-era ordnance. The speaker claims that Ukraine's superior technology has led to approximately 150,000 Russian soldier deaths. The Ukraine war has effectively neutralized Russia's fighting force as a global threat.

Patriot missiles and batteries are being planned for Ukraine. A full complement with the batteries will be provided. Some are expected to arrive very soon, within days. Countries that have Patriots will swap over and be replaced with the ones they have. Matt will coordinate with NATO.

Aiding Ukraine is the most cost-effective way for the US to enhance its security as the Ukrainians are the ones fighting and dying. The US and Europe provide them with weapons to resist Putin. Having been to Kyiv twice, it is clear that Ukraine is a European country with a strong desire to align with the West. It would be astonishing if the US were to abandon Ukraine at this crucial time.

Europe must quickly increase its support for Ukraine as artillery shells, air defense interceptors, and drone production capabilities dwindle. Europe could use proposals and potentially collateralize frozen Russian assets to act fast. The speaker is concerned about the cutoff of intelligence streams from the U.S. and pressure on allies like the UK not to use US intelligence for their own weapons. The primary purpose of US intelligence has been to give Ukrainians advanced warning of Russian attacks. Key weapon systems require support from US satellite queuing and the military GPS system to hit their targets. Without this support, more Ukrainians will die, and Europe cannot replace this capability quickly.

Europe must quickly increase its support for Ukraine as artillery shells, air defense interceptors, and drone production capabilities dwindle. Europe could use proposals and potentially collateralize frozen Russian assets to act fast. The speaker is concerned about the cutoff of intelligence streams from the U.S. and pressure on allies like the UK not to use US intelligence for their own weapons. The primary purpose of US intelligence has been to help Ukrainians see Russian attacks coming and have advanced warning. Key weapon systems require U.S. satellite queuing and the military GPS system to hit targets. Without these, more Ukrainians will die, and Europe cannot replace this capability quickly.