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The idea of Ukraine joining a Western military alliance is unacceptable to any Russian leader. After the Soviet Union collapsed in 1990, Gorbachev agreed to let Germany unify and join NATO, with the condition that NATO wouldn't expand eastward. However, NATO quickly moved to East Germany and later expanded to Russia's borders under Clinton. The new Ukrainian government voted overwhelmingly to join NATO, which Russia sees as a strategic threat. They believe Petro Poroshenko's government is not protecting Ukraine but rather threatening it with a major war. This situation poses a serious threat to Russia, and any Russian leader would have to react accordingly.

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I'm aligned with the USA and the world, and I want this conflict resolved. It's tough to deal with the hatred involved, but I want to see a deal done in Europe. I can be tough, but that won't get us a deal. For four years, tough talk didn't stop Putin. Diplomacy is the path. During Obama, Trump and Biden's terms, nobody stopped Putin from occupying parts of Ukraine. We signed ceasefire and gas contracts, but he broke them. What kind of diplomacy are we talking about? It is disrespectful to come into the Oval Office and litigate this in front of the American media. Everyone has problems during war. You are gambling with World War Three and disrespecting a country that has backed you. Have you said thank you? You are running low on soldiers. We gave you $350 billion and military equipment. Without us, this war would have been over in two weeks. If you can get a ceasefire right now, I tell you you take it so the bullets stop flying and you meant stop getting. I gave you javelins. Obama gave sheets. He didn't break deals with me. If Russia breaks a ceasefire, what if a bomb drops on your head right now? I've empowered you to be a tough guy, and I don't think you'd be a tough guy without The United States. You're either gonna make a deal, or we're out.

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I don't believe Donald Trump will be elected. He's a felon and a liar who doesn't support US democratic principles. He's spoken about locking up Americans and immigrants, which would hurt our economy. If Putin is betting on Trump, he's in for an unhappy surprise. If Trump were elected and forced Ukraine into a bad peace, it would be terrible for the US, Europe, and our allies. Putin won't stop there. He'll take the deal, hold onto territory in Ukraine, rest, refit, and then come for the rest of Ukraine before moving further west.

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I'm aligned with the United States and the world, and I want to end the conflict in Ukraine. It's hard to make a deal with so much hatred, but I'm focused on getting things done for the sake of the world and Europe. I can be tough, but that won't lead to a deal. We tried being tough with Putin, and it didn't work. Diplomacy is the path to peace and prosperity. During past administrations, nobody stopped Putin when he occupied parts of Ukraine and people died. We signed ceasefire and gas contracts, but he broke them. What kind of diplomacy are we talking about?

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Украина рассматривает вступление в НАТО, но это может вызвать крупные военные операции России. Россия может атаковать Украину, чтобы предотвратить вступление в НАТО. Выбор стоит между войной с Россией и вступлением в НАТО после победы. Крупная война включает воздушные операции, вторжения армий, осаду Киева, диверсии и другие действия. Вероятность войны 99%, особенно после 2021-2022. Translation: Ukraine considers joining NATO, but it may lead to major Russian military operations. Russia could attack Ukraine to prevent NATO membership. The choice is between war with Russia and joining NATO after victory. A major war involves air operations, army invasions, siege of Kyiv, sabotage, and other actions. The likelihood of war is 99%, especially after 2021-2022.

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Если Украина вступит в НАТО, Россия может начать крупные военные операции против нее. Вступление в НАТО приведет к войне, а отказ - к поглощению Россией. Выбор стоит между войной с Россией и вступлением в НАТО после победы. Планы включают воздушные операции, вторжения, осаду Киева и диверсии. Вероятность войны - 99%, критический период 2021-2022. Translation: If Ukraine joins NATO, Russia may start major military operations against it. Joining NATO leads to war, while refusal leads to Russian absorption. The choice is between war with Russia and NATO membership after victory. Plans include air operations, invasions, siege of Kyiv, and sabotage. Probability of war - 99%, critical period 2021-2022.

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If Putin attacks a NATO ally, we will defend every part of NATO as required by treaty. It's important to clarify that we do not seek American troops to engage in combat in Russia or against Russia.

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Russia will remain a dangerous opponent for a long time, and we must include Ukraine in NATO. The only way to have trusting relations with Moscow is through a decisive defeat and a reset in Russia, where the Russian population and politics abandon their deeply rooted imperial, aggressive, and colonial ideas.

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If Putin attacks a NATO ally, we will defend every part of NATO as required by treaty. It's important to clarify that we do not seek American troops to fight in Russia or against Russia.

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I can be tougher than anyone, but that's not how you make deals. We had a president who talked tough about Putin, but Putin still invaded Ukraine. Diplomacy is the path to peace and prosperity. America is a good country when it engages in diplomacy, like President Trump is doing. Putin occupied parts of Ukraine, including Crimea, back in 2014. Obama was president then, followed by Trump, then Biden, and now potentially Trump again. Nobody stopped Putin back then. People were dying on the contact line. I even signed a ceasefire deal with him in 2019, along with Macron and Merkel, but he broke it, killed our people, and didn't exchange prisoners.

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I am ready to leave my post as president if it means peace for Ukraine. If it is absolutely necessary for me to leave for peace to occur, then I am willing to do so. I am also ready to exchange my position for NATO membership immediately, if those are the conditions required. I won't belabor the point any further.

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**Original Language Summary:** Вступление Украины в НАТО с вероятностью 999% приведет к крупной войне с Россией, но отказ от вступления обернется поглощением Россией в течение 10-12 лет. Крупная война включает наступление, осаду Киева, прорыв через Крым и наступление с территории Беларуси. Возможные сроки обострения – 2021-2022, 2024-2026 и 2028-2030 годы. Избежать войны при вступлении в НАТО можно, если Запад даст России понять, что это неприемлемо, например, санкциями, размещением авиации США или вводом контингента НАТО. Смена власти в России возможна при внутриэлитном конфликте. Мирное урегулирование на Донбассе невозможно, пока Россия не изменит свою позицию. Главная задача Украины – вступление в НАТО, даже ценой социально-экономических жертв. Нейтралитет невозможен, и страна должна дрейфовать в военный союз, предпочтительно в НАТО. В случае войны Украина получит поддержку Запада. **English Translation:** Ukraine's accession to NATO has a 999% probability of leading to a major war with Russia, but refusing to join will result in absorption by Russia within 10-12 years. A major war includes an offensive, the siege of Kyiv, a breakthrough through Crimea, and an offensive from Belarus. Possible escalation periods are 2021-2022, 2024-2026, and 2028-2030. Avoiding war when joining NATO is possible if the West makes it clear to Russia that this is unacceptable, for example, through sanctions, the deployment of US aviation, or the introduction of a NATO contingent. A change of power in Russia is possible in the event of an intra-elite conflict. A peaceful settlement in the Donbass is impossible until Russia changes its position. Ukraine's main task is to join NATO, even at the cost of socio-economic sacrifices. Neutrality is impossible, and the country must drift into a military alliance, preferably NATO. In the event of war, Ukraine will receive support from the West.

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We will now talk about the future of Ukraine with you, as it seems you are serious about it. Putin had asked the Americans in December 2021 for written confirmation on how to handle Ukraine, but President Biden refused to negotiate on this matter. There should have been an uproar on the German side, as a potential war would involve Germany in the issue.

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Moving NATO forces, including American troops, closer to Russia's borders would escalate tensions and increase the risk of war. It is crucial to understand that Russia will not back down, as this is a matter of existential importance due to past events. It is not just Putin who holds power, but a political class with their own opinions. The majority of the public supports Russian policy, making it unlikely for Putin to compromise or retreat if faced with military confrontation.

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Speaker 0: It is an indictment of your own leadership. And in countries across Europe, the leaders feel that way. Russia is an embarrassment to them because it is, relatively speaking, thriving. And so they all, as one, backed the Biden administration's plan to have a war with Russia. And let's stop lying. This was not an unprovoked invasion. Putin just randomly went over the line into Eastern Ukraine and stole these oblast. He stole this land that belonged to another people. That's a total lie, and it's not a defense of Putin to call it out as a lie because it is, and everybody knows it now. The truth is that in 2001, Putin, same guy, same leader, asked the Bush administration in person directly to George W. Bush, I would like to join NATO. I would like to join the defensive alliance that exists to keep me from moving west into Western Europe. In other words, you won. I'm joining your team. And due in part to his own limitations as a leader and due in part to the counsel that he received from Condoleezza Rice at the time, George w Bush turned down that offer and prevented Russia from joining NATO. And the guest we're gonna speak to in a moment, if you're wondering if he has a good track record of calling future events, said at the time, this decision to turn down Vladimir Putin's it's twenty five years ago, Vladimir Putin's request to join NATO, to join the West, to all be in it together, to work together, this decision made by the Bush administration guarantees a collision with the West. We are now on a collision course. And, of course, he was absolutely right because NATO didn't want Russia because NATO wanted a war with Russia, and boy, they got it. And so from 2001 all the way to 2022, twenty one years, NATO moved inexorably east surrounding Russia. And many times, again, this is not a defense of Russia. It's just a fact. Many times, the Russian government under Putin said, woah. Woah. Woah. Woah. Woah. Are threatening our core national interest, which is not to have other people's missiles on our borders back off. And then in 2014, the Obama administration overthrew the government of Ukraine to put an American puppet in there, thereby sealing the fate of nations. When that happened, and Sergei Karganov said it at the time, you have just guaranteed a war in Ukraine that will destroy Ukraine.

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If the Ukrainian military doesn't stop the Russian invasion, it won't be long before our NATO forces have to fight the Russian army crossing the border.

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Мы против расширения НАТО и размещения ударных систем у наших границ. Если все хотят мира, почему не отказаться от этого? Мы готовы создать условия для повышения доверия и безопасности.

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Ukraine's decision to give up nuclear weapons and pursue NATO membership is criticized as a mistake. The US is blamed for pushing Ukraine towards NATO and overthrowing Yanukovych in 2014, leading to the current crisis. The speaker urges the White House to avoid war by reassuring Russia that NATO will not expand further. The situation is seen as a result of long-standing US foreign policy goals.

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We are having strong discussions with our German allies about Nord Stream 2. I want to emphasize that if Russia invades Ukraine, Nord Stream 2 will not proceed.

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If Ukraine's military doesn't halt the Russian invasion, it won't be long before our NATO forces have to fight on the border.

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What Trump wants is a ceasefire. That's it. He wants a ceasefire. And if Putin can get convince him that the quickest route to a ceasefire is for Ukraine to leave mother Russia and say no to NATO, that's it. That's all that has to happen for a ceasefire. And what Putin is going to say is it won't matter in a month. In a month, we're going to own it all. If you want your ceasefire now, tell Ukraine to leave. If the Ukraine won't leave, we'll make them leave. There's nothing you can do to stop us. We're not afraid of your sanctions. We're not afraid of any of your threats. This is going to happen. We can either happen have it happen in a way that gets you the ceasefire you want, or it's just gonna happen. And I think Trump understands it.

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The situation in Ukraine is dangerous and escalating. Joe Biden's actions have brought us close to nuclear war, as he is sending American tanks. It is crucial for all parties involved to seek a peaceful resolution before this catastrophe leads to World War 3, which would be a nuclear war. If I were in the White House, Russia would have never invaded Ukraine. We must demand peace in Ukraine now, and it is actually easy to achieve.

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Speaker 0: This thing over with. You see the hatred he's got for Putin. It's very tough for me to make a deal with that kind of hate. I'm aligned with the world. I wanna get the things set. If you want me to be tough? I could be tougher than any human being you've ever seen, but you're never gonna get a deal that way. Speaker 1: For four years in The United States Of America... we had a president who stood up at press conferences and talked tough about Vladimir Putin, and then Putin invaded Ukraine. The path to peace... is engaging in diplomacy. Speaker 2: He occupied it, our parts, big parts of Ukraine, parts of East and Crimea. So 2014. We signed ceasefire, gas contract, but after that, he broken the ceasefire, he killed our people, and he didn't exchange prisoners. What kind of diplomacy? Speaker 0: You should be thanking the president for trying to bring it into this conference. Speaker 2: We have problems. Speaker 0: You're gambling with World War three. You have the cards. With us, you have the cards. Without us you don't have any cards. I gave you the javelins to take out all those tanks. Obama gave you sheets. What if Russia breaks his fire?

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I'm aligned with the US and the world, and I want to end this conflict. It's hard to make a deal with so much hatred. I could be tough, but that won't get us anywhere. For four years, tough talk didn't stop Putin. Diplomacy is the path to peace. Others didn't stop Putin from occupying parts of Ukraine since 2014. We signed ceasefire and gas contracts, but he broke them, killing people and not exchanging prisoners. I am trying to end the destruction of your country. Everyone has problems during war, even you. You've allowed yourself to be in a bad position. You're gambling with lives and World War III, and that's disrespectful to the US. You haven't said thank you, and campaigned against us. Your country is in trouble and not winning. If we are out, you will be fighting on your own.

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Если Украина вступит в НАТО, Россия может начать крупные военные операции против нее. Россия может пойти на прямую конфронтацию до вступления Украины в НАТО. Вступление в НАТО может привести к большой войне с Россией, а отказ от вступления - к поглощению Россией. В случае крупной войны с Россией и победы, Украина может вступить в НАТО.
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