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Speaker 0 explains that politically you can’t do certain things, emphasizing transparent financing and transparent spending, and says the bill was written “in a tortured way to make sure CBO did not score the mandate as taxes.” He asserts that if CBO had scored the mandate as taxes, the bill would have died. He describes risk-rated subsidies as another tactic that would have failed if it explicitly said healthy people pay in while sick people get money. He notes that “transparent lack of transparency is a huge political advantage,” suggesting that, despite what some people think, that lack of clarity was critical to passage. He calls it the second best argument, expressing a preference for having the law rather than not, even if improvements are desired. Speaker 1 asks whether Speaker 0 stands by previous comments and notes that the comments were made at an academic conference and were off the cuff. Speaker 0 recounts an alternative proposed by John Perry, a Massachusetts colleague, proposing a substitute idea: instead of giving high-cost plans a 40% tax rate directly to individuals, limit a 40% tax on the insurance companies that sell those expensive Cadillac plans. He says that would be “pretty much the same thing,” but asks why it matters, implying the distinction is minor and the public might not understand the difference. He then describes John Kerry’s approach: “we’re not to tax your health insurance,” but “tax those evil insurance companies.” Kerry proposed a tax on insurers that sell expensive plans, with the tax rate set to the marginal tax rate under the income tax code. He explains that insurers would pass on higher prices, offsetting the tax break, resulting in essentially the same outcome as taxing individuals directly. He calls this a very clever exploitation of the lack of economic understanding among the American voter. Speaker 1 again notes that Speaker 0 was speaking off the cuff.

This budget imposes a tax on working people and patients, creating new out-of-pocket expenses. It breaks the president's campaign promise to lower costs for working people.

The speaker discusses the negative impact of a high capital gains tax on the economy, referencing the Laffer curve. The Laffer curve, created by economist Laffer, illustrates that excessive taxation can lead people to evade taxes, work less, or leave the country. Moderate taxes are generally accepted, but high taxes can cause individuals to opt out of the system, resulting in lower tax revenue.

Speaker 0 argues that you cannot do it politically without transparent financing and transparent spending. The speaker notes that the bill was written in a tortured way to ensure the CBO did not score the mandate as taxes. If the CBO scored the mandate as taxes, the bill dies, so it was written to do that. In terms of risk-rated subsidies, the speaker explains that if there were a law which said healthy people are going to pay in, it would have explicit that healthy people pay in and sick people get money, and it would not have passed. The speaker also states that the lack of transparency is a huge political advantage, describing it as the stupid of the American voter or whatever. The lack of transparency, according to the speaker, was really critical to getting the thing to pass. The speaker further notes that this transparency issue served as a second-best argument. They wish Mark was right and that it could be made all transparent, but they would rather have the law than not. In essence, the speaker summarizes it as a reporter-style scenario: there are things they wish could be changed, but they would rather have this law—i.e., this outcome—than not. The speaker emphasizes that the political viability depended on maintaining nontransparent aspects, which provided a significant advantage in passing the legislation. The overall point is that the design of the bill relied on avoiding certain fiscal scoring and maintaining opacity in order to secure passage, even though more transparent governance would be preferable in the speaker’s view. Key conclusions presented by Speaker 0 are that transparent financing and transparent spending are not politically feasible for passage, that the bill was intentionally crafted to avoid CBO classification of the mandate as taxes, and that the use of risk-rated subsidies with implicit subsidies (healthy people paying in and sick people receiving funds) would have prevented passage if explicitly stated. The speaker asserts that lack of transparency was a strategic political edge, and while acknowledging the desirability of full transparency, maintains that having the law is preferable to not having it at all. The overall stance is that the political calculus favored opacity and specific scoring manipulation as essential to enactment, even if imperfect.

**Speaker 0:** 212 Democrats voted against no tax on tips, Social Security, and overtime. If the government makes money and spends it responsibly, taxes aren't necessary. The new administration is holding the government accountable, and people are mad about it. **Speaker 1:** There's no tax on tips, overtime, or Social Security in the budget resolution. Taxes are normal. This utopia where nobody pays taxes isn't going to work. Read the budget before lecturing people about it.

Today, nearly half of every dollar earned in the U.S. goes to taxes, often unnoticed because they are embedded in business costs. Politicians advocate for taxing businesses to help the average person, but these taxes ultimately increase product prices, acting as a hidden sales tax. There are numerous such taxes affecting consumers. Additionally, there is a call to raise corporate taxes to ensure that large corporations and billionaires contribute their fair share. While success is not criticized, the emphasis is on the importance of equitable tax contributions from those who can afford it.

Barack Obama, with Joe Biden as Vice President, used ideas from the Heritage Foundation in Obamacare. The Heritage Foundation also developed Project 2025, which Democrats are said to be looking at. The bill itself integrates Republican ideas. Obamacare is similar to the bill that Mitt Romney passed in Massachusetts. Ideas like the exchange, being able to pull, and improve the purchasing power of individuals, in the insurance market originated from the Heritage Foundation.

Many of you benefited from the $1.9 trillion tax cut, which is great to hear. However, if you're like me, your taxes will actually increase, not decrease.

Speaker 0 questions Gruber’s identity and role in crafting Obamacare, asking, “Who is Gruber? What was his role in crafting Obamacare?” Speaker 1 replies that Gruber didn’t help write their bill and questions if viewers have seen Jonathan Gruber of MIT’s analysis; they describe Gruber as “one of the most respected economists in the world.” Speaker 2 notes Gruber attended five of the 12 meetings at the Obama White House in 2009, including a meeting with the president. Speaker 1 says they were a paid consultant to the Obama administration to help develop the technical details of the bill, stating “$6,000,000 in consulting fees on Obamacare,” and remarks that one could soon make a lot of money working for the government. They describe Gruber as “an adviser,” and discuss the idea that the adviser never worked on their staff. Speaker 2 adds that someone who never worked on their staff has “stolen ideas from liberally, John Gruber.” Speaker 1 comments on Obama being more relaxed and mentions a cigarette break taken halfway through. Speaker 2 expresses disagreement with Obama’s opinion about voters, saying it’s a belief that voters are too stupid to understand it, calling it “the stupidity the American voter” and describing it as a clever exploitation of Americans’ lack of economic understanding. Speaker 2 asserts there is “no reflection on the actual process that was run.” Speaker 1 notes that the only way they could take on the measure was first by mislabeling it, and that John Kerry said, “No. No. No. We’re gonna tax your health insurance. We’re gonna tax those evil insurance companies.” Speaker 0 states, “Gruber, has been our guide on a lot of this.” Speaker 1 clarifies that Gruber is “really” guiding toward understanding that the bill is “a tax on people who hold those insurance plans.” Speaker 3 comments, “I think it’ll it’s fair,” in response to a point about the bill. Speaker 2 adds that there was not a provision in the health care law that was not extensively debated. Speaker 1 contends that the bill was written in a “tortured way to make sure CBO did not score the mandate as taxes,” explaining, “If CBO scored the mandate as taxes, the bill dies.” Speaker 0 reiterates Gruber’s prominence, saying, “Mister Gruber of MIT, he’s got big computer models. He takes the CBO data, and frankly, in some respect, he’s helped CBO by helping give some information at CBO that otherwise does not have.” Speaker 1 states there was a law that said healthy people are gonna pay in, making explicit that healthy will pay in and sick people get money, and argues it would not have passed otherwise. Speaker 2 adds that the process was fully transparent, but Speaker 1 counters that lack of transparency is a huge political advantage, and questions how that will apply to more health insurance claims over time.

Obamacare is expensive and inadequate healthcare. John McCain's vote against its repeal was disappointing, as he had promised to replace it for years. I inherited Obamacare and chose to improve it rather than let it fail, which I believe was the right decision. While I attempted to overturn it legally, I also worked to make it functional for people. We are developing a better healthcare plan with input from leading healthcare companies and doctors. I guarantee coverage for those with preexisting conditions and aim to lower costs. If we find a viable solution, I will present it. Ultimately, I believe that if we had repealed Obamacare, it would have forced Democrats to create a better system.

My conservative friends believe high taxes are the issue, but the real problem is that taxes don't fund the government. The government is mainly financed by printing money through treasury bonds bought by the fed. Taxes are collected to maintain the illusion that they fund the government, but in reality, money is printed out of thin air to finance it.

Speaker 0 explains that politically, the approach cannot be done with transparent financing or transparent spending. The bill was written so that the CBO would not score the mandate as taxes; if it had, the bill would die. Regarding risk-rated subsidies, he says a law explicitly saying healthy people pay in and sick people get money would not have passed. He notes that lack of transparency is a huge political advantage and suggests, perhaps cynically, that this was critical to getting anything to pass. He adds that he wishes Mark were right about full transparency, but would rather have the law than not, comparing it to another reporter’s story and saying there are things he wishes to change but would rather have the law. Speaker 1 asks if Speaker 0 still stands by the comments in that video. Speaker 2 responds that the comments were made at an academic conference and that he was speaking off the cuff. Speaker 0 then recounts an alternative idea from a Massachusetts figure, John Kerry, suggesting that for people with expensive health insurance plans, they would no longer face a 40% tax rate. He notes that what economists want is essentially to tax the individuals with expensive plans, but Kerry’s approach would tax the insurance companies selling those Cadillac plans, implying that the same outcome would occur since they would pass the cost to consumers. He argues that this distinction matters little because the American public would fail to understand the difference, and says, again off the cuff, that Kerry proposed to tax health insurance and the insurance companies, with the tax tax rate aligned to the marginal tax rate, effectively making it the same as the individual tax approach. Speaker 2 chimes in with “Off speaking off the cuff,” aligning with Speaker 0’s description of the discussion as informal and off the cuff.

Speaker 0 and Speaker 1 discuss a written proposal regarding extending Biden-era COVID subsidies under the ACA. Speaker 0 asks if there is a proposal in writing they can read. Speaker 1 confirms there is a simple proposal: two sentences to be added to any proposal that would extend the ACA benefits for one year. He says this would be the right thing to do and could be put into Leader Thune’s open-government proposal, as it “doesn't need a vote. It can't be blocked by anybody.” He notes that the current IAC fix would be without income caps, meaning people who earn very high incomes would continue to receive subsidies, and says they would negotiate once the credits are extended, which he claims the other side previously refused to do. Speaker 0 questions whether, for one year, people making millions of dollars would still receive the COVID-era subsidies. Speaker 1 responds by saying the senator from Ohio “ignores that 99% of people” and asserts the goal is not to hurt ordinary people but to address the difficulties faced by those paying thousands of dollars more. He says they are willing to fix what was proposed in negotiation, but without hurting everyday people, and asserts he yields the floor. Speaker 0 asks for clarification of what was heard from the minority leader, to recap for those who missed it. Speaker 1 summarizes: the minority leader acknowledged there is no written proposal from Democrats for people to review; he acknowledged that his plan would allow millionaires to receive Biden-era COVID subsidies, with “no income caps.” Speaker 0 indicates he would have asked further questions if the minority leader had remained, including whether he would continue $0 premiums and whether the funds would go directly to insurance companies. Speaker 1 asserts additional points for emphasis: this money “does not go to people on Obamacare,” it is “a check written from the federal government to the wealthiest insurance companies on the planet,” and the plan would preserve subsidies for millionaires, provide $0 premiums that are alleged to have “enormous levels of fraud,” and “enrich insurance companies even more.”

Today, nearly half of every dollar earned in the U.S. goes to taxes, often unnoticed because they are embedded in business costs. Politicians advocate for taxing businesses to help the average person, but these taxes ultimately increase product prices, acting as a hidden sales tax. There are numerous such taxes affecting consumers. Additionally, there is a call to raise corporate taxes to ensure that large corporations and billionaires contribute their fair share. While success is commendable, it is crucial that everyone pays their fair share of taxes.

I'm heading to Capitol Hill. They’re voting on the Shutdown Fairness Act today, but I figured something out. I think I understand why this shutdown is happening: why would the Democrats shut down the government, depriving federal workers and the military of pay and food, and depriving the military of their health care through Tricare? It doesn’t make sense. It has nothing to do with it being the far left or against Trump. It has to do with the insurance companies. The people responsible are insurance companies like United Healthcare, Aetna, Molina, Kaiser. They are getting paid every single month from the treasury, even as the government is shut down. So the insurance companies are getting mandatory payments while federal workers and the military get nothing. This isn’t about health care in the abstract; it’s about dark money from billion-dollar insurance companies. If they lose the ACA credits for next year, they won’t get any of that money. Tax credits are paid on behalf of the insured, and they go directly to the insurance companies. That’s why Democrats are fighting so hard on this: it has nothing to do with people’s premiums per se. It has to do with the insurance companies not getting billions and billions of dollars in January and next year. The shutdown, to me, finally makes sense: it’s about the billion-dollar insurance companies. And so much of the Democrats’ talking points—about premiums—miss the point. These are not market rates; they’re set by the insurance companies. They’re the ones deciding to keep people without health care. The government isn’t the main bottleneck; if anything, the government is helping the problem. The problem is the insurance companies. They set premiums, and their providers own hospitals and set obscene rates for procedures, profiting off the hospitals. This entire shutdown is about dark money from corporations like United Healthcare, Aetna, Kaiser, Molina, and their influence on our politicians. That’s why the government is shut down right now. The idea that Democrats might be acting because insurers threaten to withhold funding for reelection finally clicks. It’s all about health insurance companies, not about people trying to access health care. If the goal were to make access to care cheaper, they would force insurers to quit raising premiums and put a cap on those premiums every year.

Lack of transparency is a huge political advantage. The speaker notes that, call it the stupidity the American voter or whatever, transparency is used as a strategic tool, and that this lack of openness was really, really critical to getting the thing to pass. This perspective is described as the second best argument, implying that there are multiple justifications, with transparency being a lesser but still important line of reasoning. The speaker adds, “I wish Mark was right,” acknowledging a belief that complete transparency would be preferable if it were feasible. Yet, the practical stance remains that “We can make it all transparent, but I'd rather have this law than not,” indicating a willingness to accept less transparency in order to achieve the law’s enactment. The comparison is drawn to “his reporter story,” suggesting a point of reference or analogy about messaging or framing used to advocate for the law. Despite admitting that there are things they wish could be changed, the overarching conclusion is the same: “but I'd rather have this law than not.” In sum, the speaker emphasizes that minimizing transparency was a deliberate strategic choice that contributed to the law’s passage, recognizes a preferred but unrealized accuracy in Mark’s view, and acknowledges trade-offs between transparency and achieving legislative goals, with a preference for the law over the absence of the law.

Speaker 0 argues that politically, you cannot have transparent financing or transparent spending, and that the bill was written in a tortured way to prevent the CBO from scoring the mandate as taxes. If the mandate had been scored as taxes, the bill would die. He says risk-rated subsidies would fail if a law explicitly said healthy people pay in and sick people get money, and that lack of transparency provides a huge political advantage. He suggests that voters’ supposed lack of understanding was exploited to pass the law, calling it “the second best argument” and expressing that, while there are things he wishes could be changed, he would rather have this law than not. Speaker 1 asks if he stands by the comments in a video and notes they were made at an academic conference; Speaker 0 replies that he was speaking off the cuff. He recounts a Massachusetts bureau, John Perry or staff, proposing a substitute idea: instead of allowing a 40% tax rate for people with expensive plans, limit a 40% tax on the insurance companies that sell those Cadillac plans, which would amount to the same thing. He argues it matters because voters supposedly wouldn’t understand the difference, and the substitutes were pursued for political reasons. He then describes another development by John Kerry in which Kerry proposed taxing those evil insurance companies rather than individuals’ health insurance, with a tax rate aligned to the marginal tax rate under the income tax code. This approach would cause insurers to pass higher prices, offsetting the tax break, resulting in the same outcome as the original plan. He characterizes this as a clever exploitation of the lack of economic understanding of the American voter. Speaker 1 concludes with “Speeding off speak,” reflecting that the discussion is moving beyond the initial remarks.

The speaker argues that the Obama and Biden administrations created and extended health-insurance subsidies, not to help individuals, but to fuel a cash pipeline to insurance companies. They claim that the policy began as a temporary expansion of subsidies in 2021, intended to help voters in 2022 and 2024, but now that the election is over, the subsidies will expire in 2025 and premiums will surge. Key points emphasized: - Premiums are currently subsidized: if a typical premium is $600 a month, the speaker says people pay $400 and the government sends $200 to insurance companies, effectively providing $24 billion a year in free money to big insurers. - In 2025, the discounts are said to disappear, causing the bill to revert to $600 or higher. The claim is that Democrats allowed this to happen and knowingly prepared for the premium spike. - The subsidies were expanded temporarily in 2021, but the speaker asserts they were not meant to help voters indefinitely; after the election, the impact is that premiums will rise. - The core assertion is that this is not primarily about health care, but about a cash flow to insurance companies. The speaker contends insurers lobby for subsidies and donate to keep them coming, and when subsidies expire, blame shifts to the other side while insurers profit. - The speaker claims Trump did not create this; Obama did, and Biden extended it only until after the election. The current gridlock is described as political theater because the real election has ended and the dispute is between insurance companies and the general public. - Democrats are portrayed as fighting for their next campaign donation checks from major insurers (UnitedHealthcare, Pfizer, Blue Cross) and for donor interests rather than for individuals. - The speaker asserts that people will experience rising premiums in 2025 and will beg for relief, while they blame the opposing party. A contrast is drawn between government spending that is criticized (e.g., $6 billion for Ukraine) and the claim of $24 billion per year for insurance companies. - The concluding message is that the money is not for you; you are the hostage and the insurers are the kidnappers. The claim remains that each party will let this happen again, and thus, neither Democrats nor Republicans work for the people. - The speaker urges viewers to stop voting for either side and to share the message if they are sick of it.

Thank you. It’s good to be here. We've been discussing how to pay for my plans. They're logical, but Washington isn't. How will I convince a divided Congress to support them, given their past behavior? It will involve taxes. Economists across the spectrum agree, although Congress isn't made up of economists. I understand the concern, but that's the reality.

High taxes in the U.S. are often blamed for financial issues, but the real problem lies in how the government is funded. While taxes are high, they don't truly finance the government. Instead, the government relies on treasury bonds, primarily purchased by the Federal Reserve, which prints money to buy them. This creates an illusion of funding through taxes, but in reality, the government is financed by money printed out of thin air. If people understood this, confidence in the dollar could collapse, leading to severe consequences for Western civilization. Urgent policy changes are needed to prevent a financial crisis similar to past mistakes. There’s still time to act before the situation worsens.

Government spending is often seen as free, but this is a myth. The belief that businesses can be taxed without impacting individuals is flawed; only people pay taxes. Taxes on businesses ultimately come from workers, customers, or shareholders. For example, the Social Security tax is often misrepresented as being shared between employers and employees, but it ultimately affects the employee's wage. Similarly, corporate taxes are paid by consumers or employees through reduced wages or higher prices. Additionally, printing money does not create wealth; it leads to inflation, which acts as a hidden tax on everyone. In essence, all government spending comes at a cost to individuals.