@ClimateAudit - Stephen McIntyre
This exchange between @JDVance and Jake Tapper touches directly on the most important (but almost universally ignored) Russiagate issue - an issue that, in December 2019, Barr said that Durham was investigating, but which, Durham, to his lasting shame and discredit, failed to report on or apparently investigate: why the FBI not only continued investigation, but ratcheted it up, after Danchenko, Steele's source, revealed to FBI in January 2017 that he did not have any high-level sources, that he had never met Sergei Millian (the supposed and only sub-source for the collusion allegations involving Manafort). When FBI learned of this highly exculpatory information in January 2017, it was "material" information that they should have disclosed to their DOJ superiors. But instead, the FBI concealed this information. Worse, they concealed Danchenko information and concealed Danchenko himself by making him a CHS (almost certainly wrongfully or in violation of policies). Even worse, when Comey and FBI briefed DOJ superiors and congressional leaders in March 2017 on their way to institutionalizing the Russiagate hoax, they relied on Steele dossier hoax as predicate without disclosing their knowledge of Danchenko's admissions. This post-inauguration operation by Comey institutionalized the "FBI investigation", on which JD Vance challenged Tapper as follows: Vance: ... talk about network integrity. You guys talked about the Russiagate hoax nonstop... Tapper: the FBI was investigating it, the FBI was investigating it, so we covered that.. Vance: you took the word of unnamed FBI agents and put them on your network as though they were the gospel truth and you did it again and again...If you, your network believed that Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin conspired in 2016, that was totally and preposterously false.. Tapper: No, what you just said is false. We covered an FBI investigation. I don't know why you wanted to talk about the FBI investigation. .. Vance:You covered it in a way that gave credence to anonymous sources activation. You did it yourself, your network did it, Jake, But again ... The exchange neatly shows the critical role of how Comey's operation in Feb-March 2017 fraudulently //institutionalized// the "FBI investigation" as the cornerstone of the Russia collusion hoax. Barr said that Durham was going to report on whether there was FBI misconduct in its doubling down on Crossfire after Danchenko's revelations. But Durham didn't do so. So Tapper still believes that CNN coverage was justified because of Durham's puzzling failure to carry out his assignment. One of the problems has been the preoccupation with criminal charges. Even if criminal charges cannot be brought due to statute of limitations or difficulty in establishing intent, the way in which FBI fraudulently maintained the Crossfire predication by concealing Danchenko admissions and Danchenko himself deserves to be fully documented.
@ClimateAudit - Stephen McIntyre
Crowdstrike, the pro-Ukrainian "cybersecurity" corporation, which was purporting to provide cybersecurity to DNC while DNC emails were being hacked in May 2016, is responsible for a global tech outage that has grounded flights and businesses. h/t @hyg9384 There was a defect in Crowdstrike update. Question: how many hacks have caused as much damage as Crowdstrike's. Prior to its attribution of DNC hack to Russian intelligence agencies, Crowdstrike was merely one of several dozen mid-tier cybersecurity firms. Its market value increased to billions following the DNC hack (which occurred on its watch) and its blaming of Russia for the hack. https://www.nytimes.com/live/2024/07/19/business/global-tech-outage
@ClimateAudit - Stephen McIntyre
https://climateaudit.org/2024/05/24/jan-and-ulfs-nature-trick-the-hottest-summer-in-2000-years/ There has been considerable recent promotion of a new Nature article by Esper et al, the conclusion of which was that 2023 was the warmest summer in 2000 years. The article is almost 25 years to the month since the publication of Mann et al 1999. In each case, the money diagram is almost identical. The warmest year is more than a decade //after// the end of the reconstruction. The conclusion was obtained by comparing the point temperature to confidence intervals around the reconstruction (in each case, shown in light gray). On reflection, for reasons explained in article, I think that this graphical comparison of a point temperature to confidence intervals to draw a conclusion about warmest year is the most appropriate interpretation of the term "Mike's Nature trick". The validity of the conclusion depends not just on the validity of the reconstruction, but on the validity of the confidence intervals - a topic that has received scant attention. Because the trick is based on confidence intervals, it can also be fairly described as a "confidence trick".
@ClimateAudit - Stephen McIntyre
in April 2022, Mark Steyn, on his GB News show https://steynonline.com/mark-steyn-show/13331/the-show-ofcom-wont-let-you-see, commented on recently released UK COVID data, claiming "the third booster shots so zealously promoted by the British state, and its groupthink media has failed, and in fact exposed you to significantly greater risk of infection, hospitalization and death." Steyn showed images of five tables from official statistical publications to support his claims. In April 2023, Ofcom, which, in addition to its ordinary regulatory role, had taken a special interest in vaccine advocacy, ruled that Steyn's "presentation of UK Health Security Agency data and their use to draw conclusions materially misled the audience. In breach of Rule 2.2 of the Broadcasting Code" - a very damaging finding that Steyn has appealed. https://ofcom.org.uk/__data/assets/pdf_file/0034/254797/Ofcom-Decision-Mark-Steyn,-GB-News.pdf… I haven't followed this case. However, as it happens, I had taken an interest in UK COVID data about 3 months earlier, as it was one of the few jurisdictions that published case and hospitalization rates by vaccination status. https://twitter.com/ClimateAudit/status/1485801171336019968 Also, to refresh readers on the contemporary context, early 2022 was the period in which COVID lockdowns and overall alarm began to decline. At the time, I observed that the UK data showed that the case rate for triple vax was //higher// than among unvax. Three months later, Steyn (as discussed below) made a similar claim, for which he was censured. Although the UK authorities conspicuously refrained from including this result in their summary or conclusions, they were obviously aware of the conundrum, since their publication included a curious disclaimer by UK authorities that actual case data "should not be used" to estimate vaccine effectiveness. I pointed this odd disclaimer out in this earlier thread, also noting that health authorities in Ontario and elsewhere had previously used such data to promote vaccine uptake and that the reasoning behind this disclaimer needed to be closely examined and parsed. All of these issues turned up later in the Ofcom decision re Steyn. Ofcom ruled that Steyn's presentation was "materially misleading" because (1) he failed to take account of "fundamental biases" in age structure of vax and unvax groups i.e. unvax group was skewed younger, vax group skewed older; and (2) he failed to include the disclaimer that "This raw data should not be used to estimate vaccine effectiveness as the data does not take into account inherent biases present such as differences in risk, behaviour and testing in the vaccinated and unvaccinated populations”.
@ClimateAudit - Stephen McIntyre
in this thread, I'll re-examine Steyn's analysis. I've transcribed all the numbers in the tables and done further calculations to check his claims. First, case rates. Steyn first showed an important table showing the population by 5-year age group and vax status, observing that the total population of triply vax (boosted) was approximately equal to the population of unboosted, observing that this facilitated comparison. Steyn: "Let's take a look at this, as you can see from a pool of 63 million down at the bottom there, 63 million, there are 32 million who are triple vaccinated. That leaves just under 31 million, who are either double single or unvaccinated. So we have two groups of similar size, 31, 32 million. So it's relatively easy to weigh the merits of the third shot upon Group A versus group B." He then showed a table of cases by age group and vax status, pointing out that the total number of boosted cases was approximately double the number of unboosted cases: "So the triple vaccinated in March were responsible for just over a million COVID cases and everybody else 475,000 COVID cases. So the triple vaccinated are contracting COVID at approximately twice the rate of the double, single and unvaccinated. Got that? If you get the booster shot, you've got twice as high a chance of getting the COVID. In the United Kingdom, there's twice as many people with the third booster shot who got the COVID, as the people who never had the booster shot."
@ClimateAudit - Stephen McIntyre
Ofcom purported to rebut Steyn's analysis as shown in excerpt below. They observed that proportion of unvax in younger age groups was much higher than in older age groups and that the "simple comparison between the two groups made by Mark Steyn failed to take into account these inherent biases". However, Ofcom failed to show that there would be a different outcome in the more complex analysis in which age groups were allowed for. As it turns out, in regard to case rates, Steyn's conclusions, if anything, under-stated the phenomenon, as shown next.
@ClimateAudit - Stephen McIntyre
to do the analysis that Ofcom implies, one needs to calculate case rates by age group and vax status. The results of such a calculation are shown below. I've calculated case rates per thousand by vax status (unvax, one shot, two shots, boosted) and by mostly 10-year age groups. For all groups between 18 and 80, the infection rates for fully boosted were more than //three// times the infection rates for unvax. For the 60-69 agegroup, the infection rate for fully boosted was //five// times higher than unvax. In all cases, the sample sizes are very large so that the phenomenon is not some sort of statistical artifact. It is a phenomenon that deserves explanation and to which the public is entitled to have an explanation. While Steyn's comparison was indeed "simple", his point - at least in respect to infection rates - was valid. Ofcom's complaint that he hadn't allowed for age groups turns out to have been irrelevant. Ofcom failed to do the obvious analysis to show that Steyn's conclusion was incorrect when the age group impact was allowed for.
@ClimateAudit - Stephen McIntyre
the issues in regard to hospitalization are a little different. In real time, in late 2021 and early 2022, there was considerable controversy due to a pulse of increased hospital occupancy, for which unvax were widely blamed. In Canada, this was the time of the trucker convoy. However, in UK (data used by Steyn shown below) and similarly in Canada, the dramatic increase in hospitalizations wasn't due to a crush of admissions from unvax, but due to hospitalization of triply vax/boosted.
@ClimateAudit - Stephen McIntyre
the next figure shows the hospitalization data cited by Steyn allocated by agegroup. The vast majority of hospitalizations were among 70-plus and more particularly among 80-plus. To the extent that COVID pressure on hospitals was a public policy issue, it was due to pressure from 70+ and even 80+.
@ClimateAudit - Stephen McIntyre
picking this up again, Steyn showed the following table on hospitalization (UKHSA here https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/1066759/Vaccine-surveillance-report-week-13.pdf). The underlying table doesn't show totals. In his later commentary, Steyn quoted Ofcom-acceptable presentations on Lorraine Kelly which stated that "those people who haven't been vaccinated, we'd really love you to think again and be vaccinated because 90% of people in hospital are unvaccinated right now" and Dr Sara Kayat who stated "This needs to be shouted from the rooftops. After 12 days from first day of AstraZeneca, it is 100% effective against hospitalization and death. Those are the statistics we need to be hearing". In contrast, Steyn stated, referring to the UK statistical table,: "And again, you see there in the far right hand column, that's the people with the third COVID shot. And then you see sort of in the middle, the people who aren't vaccinated at all, that number 147 at the bottom. So triple vaccinated people who wound up spending a night in hospital 6,750. Everybody else 3,576. So the triple vaccinated are being hospitalized overnight for COVID at approximately twice the rate of the double, single and unvaccinated. And one notes in particular the significant differences in hospitalization numbers in those over 60." The "official" claims are grossly wrong and arguably "harmful" in the way that Ofcom has accused Steyn. In the March hospitalization statistics shown in the table cited by Steyn, 80% of the hospitalizations are boosted or partly vaccinated. The notions that AZ was "100% effective against hospitalizations" or that "90%" of hospitalizations" were unvaccinated was (as Steyn observed) completely untrue. Note that the false "official" was arguably actually harmful. One of the reasons proffered by UK authorities as to why case data was not necessarily a precise measure of vaccine effectiveness was that "people who are fully vaccinated and people who are unvaccinated may behave differently, particularly with regard to social interactions and therefore may have differing levels of exposure to COVID-19". In other words, the false information from Dr Sara Kayat that AZ vaccine was "100% effective against hospitalization" and the false information from Dr Hillary Jones that "90%" of hospitalizations were unvaccinated was the sort of false information that could lead to "behavior" and "social interactions" that actually contributed to COVID spread due to a false sense of security. Having said that, in this case, Steyn's "simple comparison" of total hospitalizations, while considerably less bad than the information from Dr Kayat or Dr Jones, over-stated the case on the other side, since hospitalization rates are MUCH higher in older age groups where vaccination rates are much higher. See next in thread.
@ClimateAudit - Stephen McIntyre
here is a table summarizing hospitalization rates by vax status and age group. The graph shows the data in the table. First, the hospitalization rates for younger age groups make up a negligible proportion of hospitalizations. To the extent that use of hospital resources was a policy issue, the focus should have been almost entirely on seniors. One somewhat surprising detail is that, in March 2022, in adult agegroups, hospitalization rates for vaxxed but not boosted were measurably higher than either unvaxxed or boosted. The populations are large in each group - large enough that this is not a numerical artifact. One worry from this feature of the data is that a follow up on the then boosted population might yield a similar discouraging result. However, in respect to the data as it stood when Steyn made his April 2022 presentation, it would have been more accurate to say that there was a very slight reduction in hospitalization results for fully boosted non-senior adults, but a substantial increase in hospitalization results for vaxxed but unboosted middle aged.
@ClimateAudit - Stephen McIntyre
in 2012, the Royal Society published "Science as an Open Enterprise". It's a policy relevant report that might be worthwhile for Steyn and his advisers to look at. https://royalsociety.org/-/media/policy/projects/sape/2012-06-20-saoe.pdf In its discussion of "Citizens' involvement in science", the Royal Society observed that "some ask tough and illuminating questions, exposing important errors and elisions". That is precisely what Steyn was doing in April 2022: asking tough and illuminating questions, exposing important errors and elisions. And, by the way, the Royal Society singled out "McIntyre S (2012) Climate Audit" as an example of someone doing exactly that. In my opinion, so was Steyn.
@ClimateAudit - Stephen McIntyre
this is a fascinating excerpt from Soros interview. I've never understood (or thought about) how Soros made a fortune through supposed currency speculations. One can easily lose as well as win in such speculations. But in this interview, he explains that his fortune arose from picking up valuable assets after fall of Soviet Union. They lauch about the "Soros empire". Same sort of thing that Browder was doing or Russian oligarchs or Ukrainian oligarchs or Kazakh oligarchs. The embezzlement of valuable state assets built up during the Soviet regime was a once in a century (or longer) opportunity. Puts Soros in a new light for me.
@ClimateAudit - Stephen McIntyre
CNN's article https://cnn.com/interactive/2023/12/politics/missing-russia-intelligence-trump-dg/?cid=ios_app… contains some new claims about the binder that are new. While 99% of the binder is provably nothingburger, CNN cites material not previously mentioned. So I should have addressed this before responding in kneejerk way.
@ClimateAudit - Stephen McIntyre
CNN article itemized contents of the dossier. All of this sounds sonorous, but these are the documents previously released by Grassley, Judiciary etc and are a nothingburger. https://t.co/z9UmSBNv6G
@ClimateAudit - Stephen McIntyre
CNN article harks back to the March 2018 House Committee report that supposedly "scrutinized the highly classified intelligence from 2016 that informed the assessment Putin and Russia sought to assist Trump’s campaign." https://t.co/b1SskUhhgD
@ClimateAudit - Stephen McIntyre
this supposed intelligence is one of the biggest mysteries of the entire Russiagate affair. In early December 2016, DNI/FBI gave contradictory assessment to House Intel Committee to CIA assessment given to Senate Intel.
@ClimateAudit - Stephen McIntyre
the CIA briefing to Senate Intel Committee resulted in Dem Senators writing "urgent" letter to Obama White House, which responded by commissioning an ICA to be submitted prior to end of transition, more or less disregarding all protocols
@ClimateAudit - Stephen McIntyre
the Senate Intel Committee, CIA and Obama White House neatly choreographed the ICA and its reception. The ICA, written closehold by Brennan associates, sabotaged the incoming administration.
@ClimateAudit - Stephen McIntyre
if the binder contained details of this mysterious intelligence, it would be a big deal. But I'm very dubious that it does. I've corresponded at length with Lee Smith about the mysterious intelligence. He thought it might be nothing more than Steele dossier. But we don't know.
@ClimateAudit - Stephen McIntyre
I doubt that the binder contains the answer. So, notwithstanding the CNN article, it looks like the binder is the nothingburger that I've surmised all along.
@ClimateAudit - Stephen McIntyre
Lee said that neither Nunes nor Kash Patel had been able to get access to the mysterious intelligence, so, despite the shade against House Intel Committee by CNN, it's implausible that binder contains House version of this intelligence.
@ClimateAudit - Stephen McIntyre
in March 2014, following US-backed coup in Ukraine, US announced FBI and Treasury agents would help recover "some of the billions it says went missing" under previous govt. https://voanews.com/a/washington-react-fbi-helps-ukraine-recover-billions-stolen-by-former-regime/1868097.html
@ClimateAudit - Stephen McIntyre
Five years later, FBI agent Greenaway confessed: "we were not able to return a single dollar" https://www.holosameryky.com/a/hroshi-yanukovycha-slidchi/4786469.html
@ClimateAudit - Stephen McIntyre
the ONLY substantial asset recovery by Ukraine was $1.5 billion announced on April 28, 2017 and reported on May 2, 2017 by Tatiana Chornovol, a Maidan ultra-radical anti-corruptionist. Who also despised "grant-eating" "anti-corruptionists" backed by US. chornovol.info/pro-scho-mriyu…
@ClimateAudit - Stephen McIntyre
Chronovol wrote that the recovery of the $1.5 billion was accomplished by a small team against sustained opposition. Among those singled out for praise: Shokin and Konstantyn Kulyk (the latter sanctioned by US in Jan 2017).
@ClimateAudit - Stephen McIntyre
Chornovol is an ultra-radical Ukro nationalist. So her praise for and support of Shokin and Kulyk raises obvious and further questions about the tainting of both of them by Biden associates and the US security state.
@ClimateAudit - Stephen McIntyre
Chornovol's contemporary reporting (see http://chornovol.info and https://blogs.pravda.com.ua/authors/chornovol/) contains some fascinating inside stories on the recovery of the $1.5 billion that shed light both on Shokin and Kulyk and their US-backed adversaries Kasko (of PGO) and Sytnyk (of NABU)
@ClimateAudit - Stephen McIntyre
In particular, see this May 2, 2017 article chornovol.info/pro-scho-mriyu… and especially this May 29, 2017 interview https://www.ukrinform.ua/rubric-polytics/2237452-tetana-cornovol-narodnij-deputat-ukraini.html upon which this thread relies.
@ClimateAudit - Stephen McIntyre
In July 2015, Olena Tyshchenko (experienced in international money laundering through representation of Kazakh oligarch Ablyazov) was appointed Director, Agency for Asset Recovery at Ukraine's Ministry of Internal Affairs. Visited Atlantic Council in Aug 2015
@ClimateAudit - Stephen McIntyre
Tyshchenko looked through information on funds "arrested" in various jurisdictions and identified frozen accounts totaling $1.5 billion at Oschadbank in Ukraine itself as of highest priority.
@ClimateAudit - Stephen McIntyre
Tyshchenko had a sophisticated understanding of the structure of offshore businesses and accounts and articulately distinguished between the "tens of millions" that could be recovered in named accounts and the billions in anonymous offshore companies. https://www.epravda.com.ua/rus/publications/2014/08/25/484449/
@ClimateAudit - Stephen McIntyre
In Aug 2015, Tyshchenko communicated with Latvia where accounts from the same companies (as at Oschadbank) had been frozen. The Latvian authorities told Tyshchenko that they had been trying to engage Ukrainian authorities at Prosecutor General Office for a year without success.
@ClimateAudit - Stephen McIntyre
Tyshchenko then turned to International Department at Prosecutor General Office, where she was told by department head that efforts were "useless" since, according to his boss (Kasko), "Shokin is personally blocking Latvia"
@ClimateAudit - Stephen McIntyre
on its face, another example of supposed Shokin corruption justifying Biden's demand for Shokin's resignation in December 2015, a few months later.
@ClimateAudit - Stephen McIntyre
Chornovol gave a somewhat more details account of August 2015 events in Oct 2, 2015 article https://blogs.pravda.com.ua/authors/chornovol/560e6b6ec10be/ where she said that Tyshchenko sent papers to seize the $80.5 million in Latvia to Kasko's office for signature which declined, blaming Shokin.
@ClimateAudit - Stephen McIntyre
Chornovol, then a member of parliament ("Deputy"), immediately went to Shokin's office in a rage. Shokin "rolled his eyes" at her accusations and summoned Kasko (his disloyal Deputy Prosecutor General)
@ClimateAudit - Stephen McIntyre
according to Chornovol, Kasko (who is later relied upon in US media as "evidence" of Shokin corruption) shouted at her and Shokin and evidenced "hatred" to her personally.
@ClimateAudit - Stephen McIntyre
Chornovol and Tyshchenko (who was also at meeting) then showed Shokin and Kasko their correspondence with Latvia demonstrating the $80.5 million that Kasko had heatedly denied the existence of.
@ClimateAudit - Stephen McIntyre
Chornovol then turned to Shokin for a decision. Shokin instructed Kasko to cooperate with Tyshchenko's team at Ministry of Internal Affairs to secure the freezing of Kurchenko funds in Latvia.
@ClimateAudit - Stephen McIntyre
at the meeting with Shokin and Kasko, it was decided that there would be a trip to Latvia at the beginning of Sept 2015, with necessary materials being prepared prior to that trip
@ClimateAudit - Stephen McIntyre
Chornovol reported (in October 2015) that the investigator from Kasko's department went to Latvia without the required "international mandate" and therefore was unable to review the target documents in Latvia.
@ClimateAudit - Stephen McIntyre
Chornovol was furious with Kasko's duplicity and even accused him of working for the other side.
@ClimateAudit - Stephen McIntyre
Chornovol's accusations against Kasko were published (Oct 2, 2015) at almost exactly the same time as US ambassador Pyatt was micro-interfering (Sep 30) in Ukr administration with overt praise for Kasko and Sakvarildze (a Biden cadre from Georgia in PGO) https://archive.kyivpost.com/article/opinion/op-ed/geoffrey-r-pyatt-corrupt-prosecutors-under-shokin-are-making-things-worse-by-openly-and-aggressively-undermining-reform-398683.html
@ClimateAudit - Stephen McIntyre
https://www.ukrinform.ua/rubric-polytics/2237452-tetana-cornovol-narodnij-deputat-ukraini.html By Sept 2015( or more likely August), Chornovol realized that Kasko's rage in Shokin's office was disguising a more troubling issue: for some reason, Kasko himself had blocked the appeal to Latvia while blaming Shokin both publicly and to his US handlers
@ClimateAudit - Stephen McIntyre
chornovol.info/en/temnyky-por… a year later, looking back, Chornovol described Kasko's technique: his message was always betrayal by Prosecutor General Office. For three different PGs. But in each case, the betrayal was by Kasko, beloved by US Embassy
@ClimateAudit - Stephen McIntyre
in late 2015, just as Biden and US Embassy were hunting Shokin, Shokin went around the disloyal Kasko who was obfuscating the Latvia request and mandated Latvia to allow prosecutor Oleksandr Kashulsky to review the Latvian materials. https://blogs.pravda.com.ua/authors/chornovol/571740121b52a/
@ClimateAudit - Stephen McIntyre
Chornovol reported that shortly after prosecutor Kashulsky got access to Latvian information, he was removed from the Latvian case (Kurchenko) by Deputy Prosecutor General David Sakvarildze who was allied with Kasko. Both were more or less US/Biden agents.
@ClimateAudit - Stephen McIntyre
concurrently, a prosecutor who was subordinate to Sakvarlidze, brought a notice of criminal suspicion against Kashulsky's father
@ClimateAudit - Stephen McIntyre
Chronovol reported https://blogs.pravda.com.ua/authors/chornovol/571740121b52a/ that the "crime" charged against Kashulsky's father was that he had dismantled a derelict workshop on a plot of land that he owned.
@ClimateAudit - Stephen McIntyre
back to events in fall 2015 following Kasko's failure to properly serve required paperwork to Latvia. At the time Kasko was a candidate (favored by U.S.) to be the new Special Anti-Corruption Prosecutor
@ClimateAudit - Stephen McIntyre
however, Chornovol discovered 📷https://blogs.pravda.com.ua/authors/chornovol/56531dd718578/ that Kasko had corruptly acquired two apartments during his appointment as a prosecutor. In 2008, a developer gave two apartments to Proscutor General Office (as a payoff for permits). Kasko got one and "privatized" it
@ClimateAudit - Stephen McIntyre
meanwhile, as Kasko was apparently frustratingcontacts with Latvia, there was a clock ticking: Latvia was scheduled to seize the arrested $81.5 million in February 2016 for its own budget if Ukraine didn't establish their case by then. And Kasko and Sakvarildze had done nothing.
@ClimateAudit - Stephen McIntyre
this story intersects with an important plotline in December 2015: four Ukrainian prosecutors were invited to Washington to meet with top U.S. officials (including later "whistleblower" Eric Ciaramella) starting on January 19, 2016.
@ClimateAudit - Stephen McIntyre
at the January 19-21, 2016, the Ukrainian prosecutors were tasked by U.S. officials (Ciaramella, Zentos etc) to investigate payments by the Party of Regions to U.S. persons (i.e. Paul Manafort). DOJ official Jeffrey Cole agreed to do so on behalf of Ukrainian prosecutors.
@ClimateAudit - Stephen McIntyre
Four Ukrainian prosecutors had been invited to the meeting: Kasko, Sakvaridze plus Sytnyk and Kholodnitski. Shokin refused permission for Kasko to attend. The U.S. Embassy objected vehemently. https://www.facebook.com/photo?fbid=10208450355246439&set=a.1439748963736 https://www.ukrweekly.com/uwwp/shokin-kasko-rivalry-seen-by-u-s-as-hindering-anti-corruption-efforts/
@ClimateAudit - Stephen McIntyre
as discussed a couple of years, the association of firing Shokin with approval of the IMF loan also emerged publicly for the first time on January 21, 2016 during these meetings
@ClimateAudit - Stephen McIntyre
here is a new detail on the January 2016 meetings from Telizhenko: unusually, the meeting with Ukrainian officials had been set up by U.S. officials without informing the Ukrainian embassy in the U.S.
@ClimateAudit - Stephen McIntyre
He learned about the meetings at the last minute and attended first meeting (hosted by NSC officials Eric Ciaramella and Liz Zentos) by contacting Zentos at the last minute. Karen Greenaway was also at the NSC meeting (new info).
@ClimateAudit - Stephen McIntyre
Jeff Cole (DOJ in Kyiv) was apparently very hostile to Telizhenko for unknown reasons and Telizhenko was excluded from all but one of the subsequent meetings in the agenda. (Telizhenko's other attendance was at meeting with Raymond Hulser, Public Integrity Office, on New York Ave
@ClimateAudit - Stephen McIntyre
Sidenote: we recently noted that Durham Report briefly discussed Hulser's rejection of efforts to investigate Clinton Foundation a couple of weeks later. Durham contrasted with Crossfire opening, but contrast to the opening on Manafort in January 2016 even more apt.
@ClimateAudit - Stephen McIntyre
on February 12, 2016, Prosecutor General Office (Shokin) formally opened investigation into Kasko's fraud in the acquisition of apartments: see Boyko's excellent article here https://naspravdi.today/en/2019/12/10/yovanovitch-s-list/
@ClimateAudit - Stephen McIntyre
Boyko's article also stated that Kasko's case was one of the four cases that, in January 2017, US ambassador Yovanovich instructed Lutsenko to drop. Boyko said that Yovanovich's testimony to impeachment committee was "pure science fiction".
@ClimateAudit - Stephen McIntyre
three days after the PGO filed notice of criminal investigation of Kasko, Kasko resigned claiming "obstruction by Shokin". Once again blaming others for what he himself had done. https://archive.kyivpost.com/article/content/kyiv-post-plus/criticism-fierce-as-anti-corruption-prosecutor-kasko-resigns-citing-obstruction-by-shokin-408136.html
@ClimateAudit - Stephen McIntyre
on Feb 1, 2016, Chornovol commented on Kasko resignation. She agreed that his resignation was a "disgrace", but for opposite reason than Kyiv Post: she thought Kasko should have gone to prison. https://blogs.pravda.com.ua/authors/chornovol/56c1c8fd7549c/
@ClimateAudit - Stephen McIntyre
Chornovol re-iterated her critique that Kasko, who headed the International Department, was supposed to organize recovery of assets, but did nothing except constantly blame other officials (who were then targeted by U.S. Embassy)
@ClimateAudit - Stephen McIntyre
Chornovol bitterly complained that right up to resignation on Feb 15, 2016, Kasko had frustrated all efforts for Ukrainian prosecutors to acquire the Latvian information and Latvian case as March 10 deadline approached. When Kasko would blame Shokin and media would praise Kasko.
@ClimateAudit - Stephen McIntyre
during this period, as Chornovol was publicly criticizing Kasko, she, Shokin and others were secretly working behind the scenes for the seizure of the much larger tranche of Kurchenko money at Oschadbank. Secretly to avoid frustration by Kasko and his supporters.
@ClimateAudit - Stephen McIntyre
in May 2017 here https://www.ukrinform.ua/rubric-polytics/2237452-tetana-cornovol-narodnij-deputat-ukraini.htmlinterview, Chornovol explained big legal problem in converting "arrested" funds at Oschadbank to Ukr govt. They had been arrested in a case (Arbuzov) where losses were a tiny fraction of arrested funds. Rest would be released on conviction.
@ClimateAudit - Stephen McIntyre
in August 2015 (just after Kasko's obfuscation of smaller tranche in Latvia became clear), Chornovol and Tyshchenko met with Shokin (and presumably his deputy Roman Govda) to discuss options on arrested Oschadbank funds.
@ClimateAudit - Stephen McIntyre
One option was to drop Arbuzov case and confiscate funds as "unclaimed". But Shokin observed sensibly that the "public will tear me apart if I close the Arbuzov case", as the disloyal Kasko was already doing what he could to remove Shokin.
@ClimateAudit - Stephen McIntyre
The larger problem was that Ukraine (according to Chornovol narrative) lacked a law that enabled the government to take possession of assets of sanctioned individuals. The U.S. routinely seized money belong to designated opponents all over the world, but Ukraine had no equivalent
@ClimateAudit - Stephen McIntyre
So Chornovol, then a member of parliament, worked with Shokin and his deputy Roman Govda to rapidly introduce a bill to the Ukrainian parliament (the Rada) similar to Latvia in which funds could be confiscated if owner doesn't confirm legality or is in hiding.
@ClimateAudit - Stephen McIntyre
however, during the process of assembling coalition support for the bill, "it was covered with political frills - the names of the 'victims' of the future special confiscation" - Yanukovych, Kurchenko etc. Though as Chornovol observed, naming of individuals was unnecessary.
@ClimateAudit - Stephen McIntyre
Chornovol's bill, as embellished by political naming, was introduced on Sept 1, 2015 and was vehemently opposed by mainstream "anti-corruptionists" due to the naming of individuals. e.g. opposition by Pylypenko here https://www.unn.com.ua/uk/exclusive/1498575-zakonoproekt-t-chornovol-schodo-spetskonfiskatsiyi-vigidniy-dlya-v-yanukovicha-predstavnik-venetsianskoyi-komisiyi
@ClimateAudit - Stephen McIntyre
Chornovol alleged (much later) chornovol.info/en/temnyky-por… that Pylypenko was connected to the same law firm as Kasko and Andriy Portnov, a firm that had represented Yanukovych and other asset hiders.
@ClimateAudit - Stephen McIntyre
Leshchenko, who had recently been a Reagan-Faskell Fellow of NED and soon-to-be pal of Victoria Nuland and McCain Foundation, vehemently opposed the law on Sept 11, 2015 https://blogs.pravda.com.ua/authors/leschenko/55f2b5756c684/, savaging Tyshchenko in process.
@ClimateAudit - Stephen McIntyre
Kolomoisky and other oligarchs also opposed the Chornovol(-Shokin) special confiscation bill and it was sidelined by the end of September just as US ambassador Pyatt was slagging the Prosecutor General Office for not doing enough, while praising Kasko and Sakvarildze.
@ClimateAudit - Stephen McIntyre
Chornovol observed (later) that on Sept 15, 2015, Onyshchenko, a prominent oligarch allied with Poroshenko, bought rights to seized funds (through offshore company) for 20 cents on dollar and then persuaded Tymoshenko faction to oppose confiscation law. https://blogs.pravda.com.ua/authors/chornovol/582bfc7c29be2/
@ClimateAudit - Stephen McIntyre
Tymoshenko (shown below whispering with Onyshchenko) was, of course, a long-time favorite of Hillary Clinton and Victoria Nuland. The Mueller investigation spent a lot of time investigating the Skadden Arps report (commissioned by Manafort) on her corruption trial.
@ClimateAudit - Stephen McIntyre
in any event, by October 2, 2015 (when Chornovol wrote her blistering attack on U.S. favorite Kasko), her special confiscation bill had been sidelined in the Ukrainian parliament. Pyatt and Nuland were quiet on its defeat, as attacks intensified on Shokin, its silent co-author
@ClimateAudit - Stephen McIntyre
over next two years, Chornovol regularly re-introduced a bill authorizing confiscation of funds under special circumstances, but each time was defeated. In May 2017, she revealed that the bills were a way to "throw enemy off track" while they focused on Kurchenko criminal case
@ClimateAudit - Stephen McIntyre
the decapitation of Shokin in March 2016 removed a key ally. Lutsenko assured the People's Front faction (Yatsenuyk, Chornovol, Pashinsky) that he would support special confiscation. (I don't know why auto-translation "liked to feed rabbits" means.)
@ClimateAudit - Stephen McIntyre
Lutsenko was even prepared to take the heat and criticism of closing the Arbuzov case and seizing the funds as ?unclaimed?, but Govda, still involved despite Shokin decapitation, observed that this loophole no longer worked due to a recent "small amendment" in the Rada
@ClimateAudit - Stephen McIntyre
a new figure now emerges into operation - a clever prosecutor who finally succeeded in confiscating Oschadbank funds. In closing days of Trump admin, this prosecutor (Kulyk) was sanctioned by US government for "promotion of fraudulent and unsubstantiated allegations" on Biden
@ClimateAudit - Stephen McIntyre
Chornovol reported that the eventually successful "plan number three" was "invented and implemented" by Konstantyn Kulyk, who she met in April 2016. During process, Kulyk was harassed and opposed by NABU and Sytnyk (an attendee at Jan 2016 Washington meeting with Biden cadres)
@ClimateAudit - Stephen McIntyre
in February 2016, the investigation of Kasko's apartment criminality had forced his resignation. There's an important and interesting Biden-Poroshenko tape on Feb 15, 2016 in which Poroshenko reported Shokin's resignation to Joe, even tho Shokin had done nothing wrong.
@ClimateAudit - Stephen McIntyre
but Shokin appears to have walked back from his resignation shortly after. Maybe he was re-invigorated by the long overdue removal of Kasko. Or maybe it was something else. But it took another 6 weeks for Biden to succeed in decapitating Shokin.
@ClimateAudit - Stephen McIntyre
in one of his very last acts as Prosecutor General (prior to his removal on March 28, 2016), Shokin fired David Sakvarildze, the ambitious Biden cadre from Sakaashvili and Georgia, who had been allied with Kasko as U.S. agents within the Ukrainian Prosecutor General Office.
@ClimateAudit - Stephen McIntyre
when Lutsenko was appointed as Prosecutor General in April 2016, (as is known in our circles), he was immediately besieged by Dem fixers Blue Star Strategies seeking an end to Shokin's investigation of Burisma (which they accomplished in last days of Obama admin in early Jan 2017
@ClimateAudit - Stephen McIntyre
but the exclusive fixation on Burisma has led western commenters to overlook other equally or more important milestones: even tho Latvia funds had been lost due to Kasko obfuscation, Lutsenko re-invigorated the Kurchenko case, a decision ultimately leading to the $1.5 billion
@ClimateAudit - Stephen McIntyre
in particular, Lutsenko assigned the case to prosecutor Konstantyn Kulyk who had made progress on the case in early 2014, before being exiled by Prosecutor General prior to Shokin. In 2015-early 2016, Kulyk was a military prosecutor.
@ClimateAudit - Stephen McIntyre
Chornovol reported that Kulyk immediately made breakthroughs through investigation and arrest of key witnesses. She noted, in passing, the arrest of Oleg Katsuba, ex-deputy head Naftogaz (see also https://archive.kyivpost.com/article/content/ukraine-politics/court-arrests-former-deputy-head-of-naftogaz-katsuba-sets-record-bail-416639.html) and "Boyko Towers" controversy (two rigs in Black Sea)
@ClimateAudit - Stephen McIntyre
we're all familiar with Biden's notorious boast about firing Shokin, but how many have watched his entire CFR appearance in 2018 https://youtube.com/watch?v=Q0_AqpdwqK4… or, more efficiently, the transcript https://cfr.org/event/foreign-affairs-issue-launch-former-vice-president-joe-biden? It's worse than anticipated
@ClimateAudit - Stephen McIntyre
I wonder how many know the question that Biden was "answering" when he riffed onto firing Shokin. (I didn't.) Moderator Richard Haass had asked Joe about Trump admin providing military weapons to Ukraine and about scope of a "deal on eastern Ukraine".
@ClimateAudit - Stephen McIntyre
before discussing Joe's answer, here's an excerpt from earlier in event. Haass asked about the expansion of NATO as contributing to tension. Joe rejected notion and claimed expansion of NATO was his "primary responsibility on floor of Senate". Lockstep with Cheney and McCain.
@ClimateAudit - Stephen McIntyre
Joe began his answer to Haass' question about Donbas by endorsing arms escalation saying there was "overwhelming opposition on the part of the body politic in Russia for engagement in Ukraine in a military sense".
@ClimateAudit - Stephen McIntyre
Joe, in a mostly formless diarrhea of words, then said that it "takes two things" to solve Donbas and one was "missing". He expressed "concern[] about backsliding by Kyiv in terms of corruption" and riffed into his Shokin story. (What was the other thing? Dunno.)
@ClimateAudit - Stephen McIntyre
@pissybich while Biden family is grossly venal, the problem cannot be reduced to mere venality: Joe additionally has poor judgement, exacerbated by vanity. And has allied himself in belief with the worst neocons. It would be better if he was merely venal.
@ClimateAudit - Stephen McIntyre
for the benefit of readers, sanction on @atelizhenko was issued on Jan 11, 2021 as one of the very last acts of "Trump" admin. Under EO 13848 (an executive order issued by Trump). https://home.treasury.gov/news/press-releases/sm1232
@ClimateAudit - Stephen McIntyre
@ATelizhenko Mnuchin's sanction order claimed Telizhenko arranged meetings to "help propagate false claims concerning corruption in Ukraine". But were any Derkach "claims concerning corruption" allegedly disseminated by Telizhenko actually false? Does Telizhenko have right to appeal order?
@ClimateAudit - Stephen McIntyre
the same order also sanctioned Oleksandr Onyshchenko, a former Poroshenko fixer, who was said by Treasury here to have originally provided the Biden-Poroshenko tapes to Derkach. Thus refuting claim that these tapes were "Russian" hacks.
@ClimateAudit - Stephen McIntyre
all but one of the Biden-Poroshenko tapes was from 2016; one was from early 2017. Interference with 2020 election would hardly have been on Onyshchenko's mind at the time.
@ClimateAudit - Stephen McIntyre
in Dec 2016, Onyshchenko had actually gone to the FBI with tapes said to implicate Poroshenko in corruption under an agreement signed by an attorney described in a contemporary news article as "representing Andrew Weissman, chief of the [fraud] section". https://www.kyivpost.com/post/10532
@ClimateAudit - Stephen McIntyre
at the time (Dec 2016) that Onyshchenko was being dismissed by Weissman's section, we know from Horowitz report that Weissman and Ahmad were (apparently off DOJ books) trying to coordinate with Strzok, Bruce Ohr, Lisa Page, Bruce Swartz against Manafort and Trump.
@ClimateAudit - Stephen McIntyre
in contrast to Weissman's dogged investigation of any potential Trump misdeed, Peter Carr of DOJ announced two weeks later (Dec 16) that had "no plans to have furthr meetings or communications with Onyshchenko"
@ClimateAudit - Stephen McIntyre
on December 19, 2016, Poroshenko thanked Biden for the "absolutely clear signal [from] DOJ about non-cooperation" with Onyshchenko, but asked Biden "if it is true that FBI is working with him, at least I want to know that".
@ClimateAudit - Stephen McIntyre
Biden re-assured Poroshenko that the FBI had "stopped" and there was "no reason [for FBI] to talk to him again". Biden undertook to "check that [with FBI] and confirm that with you".
@ClimateAudit - Stephen McIntyre
on same day that Biden was re-assuring Poroshenko he wouldn't be troubled by FBI about tapes showing actual corruption, the FBI was insisting that [fabricated] Steele dossier allegations be included the ICA, then being drafted as a departing sabotage of incoming administration
@ClimateAudit - Stephen McIntyre
on Dec 29, 2016, ambassador Yovanovitch reported a new article on Onyshchenko to an interesting list: Nuland, Ciaramella, Biden's (now Facebook) Makaju, Brink (State), Gregory Pfleger (NSC) plus cc to three State officials
@ClimateAudit - Stephen McIntyre
four months before Telizhenko was sanctioned, Andrii Derkach, a Ukrainian parliamentarian who opposed the Biden-Poroshenko regime in Ukraine in 2014-2016, was sanctioned by Mnuchin's Treasury. His social media accounts were cancelled and his website taken offline.
@ClimateAudit - Stephen McIntyre
copies and information on the Biden-Poroshenko tapes were removed from youtube and elsewhere in an even more thorough operation than the deep-sixing of the Hunter Biden laptop.
@ClimateAudit - Stephen McIntyre
the erasure of Derkach's Biden-Poroshenko tapes and information took place only three weeks before the cancellation of Hunter Biden laptop and was even more thorough.
@ClimateAudit - Stephen McIntyre
But while the cancellation of Hunter Biden laptop information is now finally receiving a limited amount of attention (Twitter Files), the cancellation of Derkach has received zero attention.
@ClimateAudit - Stephen McIntyre
one obvious question: the Hunter Biden laptop story was cancelled because 51 or so intel "professionals" said it was "Russian disinformation". But that was untrue. Was deprecation of Derkach as "Russian disinformation" any better founded? I don't know, but surely a dig-here
@ClimateAudit - Stephen McIntyre
a few months ago, I discussed the Biden-Poroshenko during 2016 transition in which Biden re-assured Poroshenko not to worry about FBI doing anything about Onyshchenko (Poroshenko's fugitive bagman who had the tapes) meeting with FBI.
@ClimateAudit - Stephen McIntyre
in that thread (which is worth re-reading), I had noted a contemporary Ukrainian news article (cited in a FOIAed State Dept email) which stated that Onyshchenko's deal with FBI involved Andrew Weissman
@ClimateAudit - Stephen McIntyre
in addition to being in possession of tapes between Biden and Poroshenko, Onyshchenko also claimed to have met with Zlochevsky to negotiate Poroshenko's cut of Burisma's licences and to have tapes https://www.kyivpost.com/post/10532
@ClimateAudit - Stephen McIntyre
Onyshchenko's claimed connection to Weissmann in December 2016 (when Weissman meeting with Ohr, Strzok, Page and Zainab Ahmad) seems too implausible to be true, but here is copy of the signature of agreement between DOJ and Onyshchenko on Nov 29, 2016, referring to Weissmann
@ClimateAudit - Stephen McIntyre
curiously, both Danchenko's deal and Onyshchenko's deal with FBI/DOJ were entered into during transition period just prior to Trump inauguration.
@ClimateAudit - Stephen McIntyre
Danchenko was granted CHS status on March 5, 2017 and his evidence to FBI in January 2017 - which was highly exculpatory for Trump - was buried by FBI.
@ClimateAudit - Stephen McIntyre
Worse, FBI omitted Damchenko's exculpatory information to conceal deteriorating investigation predicate while Comey sought permission to reveal Crossfire to congress and make Russia investigation front page news. What Enron prosecutors would call "fraud".
@ClimateAudit - Stephen McIntyre
Onyshchenko's deal with FBI was signed a few weeks prior to Danchenko's. Onyshchenko's incriminating information appears to have been buried as thoroughly as Danchenko's exculpatory information and during same time period. Is there a connection?
@ClimateAudit - Stephen McIntyre
in late November 2019, subsequent to impeachment hearings, Onyshchenko was scheduled to travel to the US to publicize his allegations, but was arrested in Germany and held for about 6 months.
@ClimateAudit - Stephen McIntyre
in May 2020, while still in jail, Onyshchenko (according to his story) arranged for Biden-Poroshenko tapes to be delivered to Andrii Derkach, who then released excerpts in several press conferences.
@ClimateAudit - Stephen McIntyre
in Aug 2020, William Evanina of ODNI stated Derkach tapes were Russian disinformation and on Sep 10, 2020, Derkach was sanctioned by Treasury OFAC, resulting in erasure of his social media and even his website. Buried even more thoroughly than Hunter laptop 4 weeks later
@ClimateAudit - Stephen McIntyre
Onyshchenko himself was sanctioned by Treasury OFAC on January 10, 2021 in one of the very last acts of outgoing Trump admin. When they ought to have been releasing Russiagate hoax documents.
@ClimateAudit - Stephen McIntyre
this thread was inspired by @fool_nelson's question about a CHS mentioned by Horowitz who provided information beginning in March 2017 and by recent information connecting CHS to Burisma and Ukraine, plus CHS possession of tapes
@ClimateAudit - Stephen McIntyre
in a Ukrainian language article in 2018, Onyshchenko claimed that he had acted as an intermediary with Zlochevsky in the negotiation of the deal in which Ukrainian charges against Burisma were dropped https://strana.news/articles/analysis/136422-strana-publikuet-pervuju-hlavu-knihi-onishchenko-pro-razhovor-s-poroshenko-o-korruptsionnoj-skheme-so-zlochevskim.html
@ClimateAudit - Stephen McIntyre
it goes without saying that this thread reflects input by @Fool_nelson, @walkafyre and @hansMahncke.
@ClimateAudit - Stephen McIntyre
I mentioned that this thread began with the identity of Horowitz' CHS. As most readers are aware, New York Post identified Gal Luft as a missing witness in Biden investigation. Plausible candidate as the mysterious CHS. https://nypost.com/2023/05/31/missing-biden-family-corruption-probe-witness-gal-luft-speaks-out-living-as-fugitive-in-undisclosed-location/
@ClimateAudit - Stephen McIntyre
https://nypost.com/2023/06/12/burisma-boss-in-alleged-biden-bribe-scheme-claims-to-have-15-taped-conversations-with-hunter-2-with-joe-grassley/ based on New York Post reporting today, Burisma bought into a joint venture with Cub Energy: and this may be connected to Hunter's desire for Burisma to acquire North American foothold
@ClimateAudit - Stephen McIntyre
a candidate for the source for CHS information arising from Cub Energy connection (proposed by a reader) is Frank Mermoud. Story seems to be developing quickly all of a sudden.
@ClimateAudit - Stephen McIntyre
it increasingly appears that FBI/DOJ, in addition to burying incriminating information from Onyshchenko, was also burying incriminating information from Gal Luft, who increasingly appears to be the "informant" identified by Comer
@ClimateAudit - Stephen McIntyre
a reader proposed an alternative to Frank Mermoud as Gal Luft's source. Mermoud was Chairman of Cub Energy, a company with Ukrainian gas interests, some joint with Burisma, that was listed with Canadian securities commissions (now Carcetti Capital)
@ClimateAudit - Stephen McIntyre
the alternative source to Gal Luft proposed by a reader is Mikhail Afendikov, formerly CEO of Cub Energy, who died suddenly on Feb 1, 2021, shortly after Biden's inauguration. https://expro.com.ua/en/tidings/untimely-end-of-cub-energy-ceo-mikhail-afendikov
@ClimateAudit - Stephen McIntyre
however, making and saving of tapes seems much more plausible if Luft's source is someone like Onyshchenko (who we know both to have accumulated many tapes and to have been in contact with Zlochevsky) than a director of a public company (Mermoud, Afendikov etc). We'll see (maybe)
@ClimateAudit - Stephen McIntyre
if the informant's source turns out to be Onyshchenko, then we'll have a truly bizarre situation in which not only was the informant giving information to FBI that was buried, but the informant's source was also giving info to FBI that was being buried.
@ClimateAudit - Stephen McIntyre
while it may be a distinction without a difference, the sanction against you was issued by Mnuchin. Seems plausible that Pompeo was involved, but do you KNOW that? https://home.treasury.gov/news/press-releases/sm1232 https://home.treasury.gov/news/press-releases/sm1232