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@CovertShores - H I Sutton

***BREAKING*** Reported attack by #Russian maritime drone on Zatoka Bridge, Ukraine, Feb 10, 2023 This is significant. Thread 1 /8 #OSINT

@CovertShores - H I Sutton

2 /8 Video of the bridge being attacked is being widely shared on social media. This appears credible. What follows is a hot take, caveats apply

@CovertShores - H I Sutton

3 /8 Some reports say it was an "underwater drone". I think that actually it is an explosives laden uncrewed surface vessel (USV) This is the same concept that #Ukraine used so effectively against Russia in late last year The Ukrainian one, from http://www.hisutton.com/Ukraine-Maritime-Drones.html

@CovertShores - H I Sutton

4 /8 This is a major new development, #Russia was not known to have these types of drones, or to think in these terms Even if the attack did limited damage (as reported) it is a major new threat for Ukraine

@CovertShores - H I Sutton

5 /8 The bridge is a strategic link between Ukraine and Moldova/Romania and has been targeted by Russia before, but with limited success Previously in April 2022, missile strikes:

@CovertShores - H I Sutton

6 /8 A large number of small fast boats were active around Sevastopol earlier today. Many were likely guarding Russian warships used to launch Kalibr missiles on Ukraine from Ukrainian USVs. But some might have been these USVs. Possibly

@CovertShores - H I Sutton

7 /8 #Ukraine's USVs appear to use StarLink from Space X for real-time control However Space X has taken steps to prevent Ukraine using the technology in "drones" This is a significant blow for Ukraine's military https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-64579267

Ukraine war: Elon Musk's SpaceX firm bars Kyiv from using Starlink tech for drone control The firm says it has limited Kyiv's ability to use its Starlink satellite internet for military ends. bbc.com

@CovertShores - H I Sutton

8 / 8 If Russia is able to use these explosive drones against Ukrainian coastal targets, but Ukraine can no longer attack Russian warships in the same way, we may see another shift in the war in the Black Sea. This time in Russia's favor again.

@CovertShores - H I Sutton

9 /8 Afterthought: one scenario to watch for is Russia using them against merchant shipping going to Ukraine under the grain deal and then denying it and blaming Ukrainian drones and/or mines Previous suspected Russian attack on merchant ship off Ukraine, Feb 2022: