TruthArchive.ai - Tweets Saved By @EHunterChristie
@EHunterChristie - Edward Hunter Christie
1-25 Unfortunately #Macron's statements to the press indicate that his position has had an incomplete evolution since last summer. His vision seems quite removed from the Tallinn Pledge and based on questionable reasoning. https://www.lefigaro.fr/international/guerre-en-ukraine-emmanuel-macron-veut-la-defaite-de-la-russie-mais-sans-l-ecraser-20230218
@EHunterChristie - Edward Hunter Christie
2-25 Macron and his party spoke a lot about victory for Ukraine in recent weeks. France's supply of light tanks is leadership by example. We are in a better place than last summer, but a serious gap remains. What follows: translated key quotes, then my commentary.
@EHunterChristie - Edward Hunter Christie
3-25 "I want Russia to be defeated in Ukraine and I want Ukraine to be able to defend its position, but I am convinced that in the end it will not end militarily. I don't think, like some, that Russia should be totally defeated, attacked on its soil."
@EHunterChristie - Edward Hunter Christie
4-25 "These observers want above all to crush Russia. This has never been the position of France and it never will be." "What is needed today is for Ukraine to lead a military offensive that disrupts the Russian front in order to trigger a return to negotiations"
@EHunterChristie - Edward Hunter Christie
5-25 "Neither side can fully prevail. Neither Ukraine, nor Russia, because the effects of the mobilization are not as great as expected and it itself has capacity limits"
@EHunterChristie - Edward Hunter Christie
6-25 'Emmanuel Macron also believes that "all the options other than Vladimir Putin within the current system" seem "worse" to him than the Russian president, in an allusion to strongmen like Nikolai Patrushev or the Yevgeny Prigozhin'
@EHunterChristie - Edward Hunter Christie
7-25 "Do we sincerely believe that a democratic solution will emerge from the Russian civil society that is now in place, after these years of political hardening, and in the midst of a war? I strongly wish this may be so, but I don't really believe it."
@EHunterChristie - Edward Hunter Christie
8-25 Commentary 1: on the Putin regime vs. alternatives It is very important to understand that cultivation of the fear of an even worse alternative is a central element of the Putin swindle. The regime has been using this trope for 15+ years.
@EHunterChristie - Edward Hunter Christie
9-25 It is not up to France or any other state to place itself in the shoes of Russian society. Yes, the Russians might come up with someone "even worse", or someone better - one needs to consider a range of scenarios.
@EHunterChristie - Edward Hunter Christie
10-25 Macron makes 4 mistakes: 1: He believes there's only one available trade-off based on a single probability assessment 2: That trade-off is Putin vs. "worse than Putin" 3: He tells everyone what the trade-off is 4: He believes he must weigh on one side of that trade-off
@EHunterChristie - Edward Hunter Christie
11-25 Error 1 is very similar to the mistake of picking the apparently likeliest scenario out of many, and fully discarding any other scenario. Unfortunately, that type of error is quite common among decision makers.
@EHunterChristie - Edward Hunter Christie
12-25 An entire field of study, Foresight Analysis, was developed to help senior decision makers avoid that error. The ability to think along several scenarios at once requires training. Govts have such analysts, but don't always use them wisely.
@EHunterChristie - Edward Hunter Christie
13-25 Error 2: believing that all alternatives are worse than the current tyrant is a grand classic of Western foolishness towards Moscow that lets the Kremlin off the hook over and over again.
@EHunterChristie - Edward Hunter Christie
14-25 Putin is a dictator who fears losing power. He knows the West could shake up his system much more virulently than it has tried to so far. Hence Putin and his helpers move forward: hey, Westerners, oppositionists, careful what you wish for!
@EHunterChristie - Edward Hunter Christie
15-25 If you knock off our man, the next one will be a lot worse! Isn't that exactly the narrative you'd develop if your mission were to safeguard Putin from political threats?
@EHunterChristie - Edward Hunter Christie
16-25 It's a clever mental trap: you get away with being a monster because the only people who could knock you down are afraid of a ghost you invented. In fact, they become your unwitting accomplices. They help you stay in power. Because they feel a fear that you engineered.
@EHunterChristie - Edward Hunter Christie
17-25 Error 3: do not broadcast a belief like that one! We're talking about what a major Western leader thinks about the survival of the Putin regime. One can of course hope Macron was being cunning as a fox, but my experience of state behaviour suggests that's unlikely.
@EHunterChristie - Edward Hunter Christie
18-25 There are good reasons for not broadcasting that one envisages agitating for the Putin regime to fall. But broadcasting that one effectively hopes it stays in place is just wrong. It lessens resolve and constitutes a signal of weakness towards a very dangerous tyrant.
@EHunterChristie - Edward Hunter Christie
19-25 Error 4 is the conceit that one can guide the trajectory of Russia's domestic power dynamics. Good luck with that. And it's beside the point. We face a hostile state. We need that state to change its behaviour.
@EHunterChristie - Edward Hunter Christie
20-25 We can't control who will rule Russia, therefore we need policies that are robust to whoever is in charge. Back to basics: deterrence, containment within Russia's borders, some form of roll-back or weakening - in sum, measures to give us more power and Moscow less power.
@EHunterChristie - Edward Hunter Christie
21-25 Commentary 2: on what the war aims should be Macron makes a strawman argument, attacking people who would "crush Russia". I see that on Twitter - but I'm not sure how many govts are that heroic. Those govts he would deem hawkish have an expressed view: the Tallinn Pledge.
@EHunterChristie - Edward Hunter Christie
22-25 Recall the Tallinn Pledge is the view of UK, POL, EST, LAT, LIT, SVK, CZE, DNK, NLD. Insane crushers of Russia? The Tallinn Pledge vision is: "supporting Ukraine to move from resisting to expelling Russian forces from Ukrainian soil" ✔️ https://www.gov.uk/government/news/joint-statement-the-tallinn-pledge
@EHunterChristie - Edward Hunter Christie
23-25 But Macron speaks of "a military offensive that disrupts the Russian front in order to trigger a return to negotiations". That is not what International Law commands, nor what justice commands, nor what the European interest commands.
@EHunterChristie - Edward Hunter Christie
24-25 It remains up to Kyiv to decide. But if it wants to go for full liberation, no mid-point should be imposed. We should wish Ukraine has the strength not just to "disrupt" the Russian front, but to demolish it and send it packing - back to Russia.
@EHunterChristie - Edward Hunter Christie
25-25 Macron may be sceptical about Kyiv's chances, but why say it? Victory is always part capability, part morale. We have a duty, as friends of Ukraine, to give them the best we can and hope for their complete and unconditional liberation.