reSee.it - Tweets Saved By @MFHoz
@MFHoz - HZ
🧵 Why the Market Hasn’t Crashed Yet Despite Interest Rate Hikes, But Is Poised for a Downturn in 2024 🔻 https://t.co/5KFQuBWQyY
@MFHoz - HZ
1/ Monetary Policy Lag: First, understand that monetary policy, especially interest rate adjustments, doesn’t impact the economy instantaneously. It’s akin to a delayed fuse; changes in interest rates take time to percolate through the economy. When the Fed hikes rates, the immediate effect isn’t a crash but a gradual adjustment. Businesses and consumers adjust their spending and investment decisions slowly. This lag explains why we haven’t seen a market crash yet, despite the rate hikes. The full effects are yet to be felt, and when they do, they will be significant.
@MFHoz - HZ
2/ Households’ Savings Buffer: The pandemic era saw a surge in personal savings. Many households accumulated a financial cushion, thanks to stimulus checks and reduced spending opportunities during lockdowns. This excess savings acted as a shock absorber against the initial effects of rate hikes. People weren’t as pressed to cut spending or liquidate investments immediately, which in normal circumstances could lead to a market downturn. However, this is a temporary buffer. As savings deplete and credit costs rise, consumer spending will retract, inevitably impacting the market.
@MFHoz - HZ
3/ Federal Reserve’s Bank Support in 2023: A critical point here is the Federal Reserve’s intervention to support banks in 2023. This move provided a safety net for the financial sector, preventing a cascade of failures that could have led to a market crash. By ensuring liquidity and stability in the banking sector, the Fed averted an immediate crisis. However, this is more a deferral than a solution. The underlying issues of high debt levels and over-leveraged positions remain and are likely to surface as the economic conditions tighten further in 2024.
@MFHoz - HZ
Why I believe Tesla is going to CRASH -90% over the next 2 years. THREAD🧵 https://t.co/7OlPK90UyA
@MFHoz - HZ
1/10 Overblown Valuation?: Tesla's staggering $744.82 billion market cap overshadows BMW's $67.47 billion and Mercedes's $68.48 billion by over 10 times. Considering Tesla's lower car sales volumes, this valuation discrepancy is hard to justify. https://t.co/VySjiEyroe
@MFHoz - HZ
2/10 Profit Margin Warning Signs: Tesla's profit margin has declined from a high of 24% in 2019 to around 15% in 2023, a clear signal of waning demand and escalating price competition. Continuing this downtrend, margins could dip under 10% by 2025. https://t.co/ZfDd4phGOH
@MFHoz - HZ
3/10 Market Share Challenges: Tesla is facing challenges in market share, particularly in China (where their market share has decreased from 30% to 11%) and in Europe (where it has dropped from 30% to 15%).
@MFHoz - HZ
4/10 Toyota's Battery Breakthrough: Toyota's new battery technology offering a 745-mile range and a 10-minute charging time is a significant threat to Tesla's dominance in the EV market. https://t.co/aQ8SuuobPt
@MFHoz - HZ
5/10 Elon Musk has expressed regrets, implying that Tesla "dug its own grave" with the Cybertruck project. This admission underscores the model's production woes and practicality concerns, making it emblematic of Tesla's larger issues with delivering on its ambitious promises.
@MFHoz - HZ
6/10 Impact of Lower Gas Prices: Lower gas prices will spell trouble for EV stocks like Tesla, as cheaper fuel might slow the shift towards electric vehicles, dampening demand.
@MFHoz - HZ
7/10 Recession Impact on Tesla: With unemployment on the rise and a looming recession, consumer spending is likely to decrease. This economic downturn could force Tesla to cut prices and lower margins further.
@MFHoz - HZ
8/10 Labor Unrest: The recent union strike in Sweden hints at growing labor unrest that could spread to other countries where Tesla operates. Such developments could disrupt production and add to Tesla's pile of challenges.
@MFHoz - HZ
9/10 Bearish Stock Forecast: Technical analysis indicates a potential short-term rally in Tesla's stock price to $300-320. However, because of deteriorating fundamentals we could see Tesla's stock plummet to a mere $20-24 by 2025. https://t.co/ml8HdUIT2r
@MFHoz - HZ
10/10 Faced with a bloated valuation, diminishing competitive edge, declining margins, and economic headwinds, Tesla's future looks increasingly uncertain.
@MFHoz - HOZ
If Iran gets involved in this war, we could see crude oil go up to 300$ easily. The US is also financing both Israel and Ukraine now. National debt will continue to rise exponentially. Higher for longer.