reSee.it - Tweets Saved By @Swordfishv44183

@Swordfishv44183 - Swordfishvegetable

I thought 35 was a lot until everyone started sharing theirs lmao. https://t.co/dP7UG90iuG

@Swordfishv44183 - Swordfishvegetable

I encourage everyone to watch The Big Short and look at a chart of $SPX at every date shown in the film, so you can see just how incredibly long everything took to play out.

@Swordfishv44183 - Swordfishvegetable

The Cleveland Fed's Yield curve prediction model suggests we will see GDP growth decline for the next 4 quarters, enter a recession in Q4 2023, and bottom in Q2 2024.

@Swordfishv44183 - Swordfishvegetable

The market seems to have convinced everyone that nothing matters. Funny enough, this is when history says everything starts to matter.

@Swordfishv44183 - Swordfishvegetable

The Ratio between $SPY and $RSP (equal weight SPY) has been moving straight up all year, now up 13% YTD. That's the entire return of the $SPX Year-to-date, by the way. This is the most narrow rally in history.

@Swordfishv44183 - Swordfishvegetable

$SPX has rallied significantly over the last 4 days. Global net liquidity has moved slightly higher over this period. The fair value of $SPX implied by global net liquidity now stands at 3412; 964 points below the current value.

@Swordfishv44183 - Swordfishvegetable

The divergence between crude oil and the crack spread is only increasing with recent news. I wonder if this oil rally lasts.

@Swordfishv44183 - Swordfishvegetable

Since 1995, the Japanese Money supply has increased by 127%, but their GDP has decreased by 15%. If, at some point, the money printer ceases to compel growth in the US, we have a serious problem. Was 2020 the start of this divergence in the US?

@Swordfishv44183 - Swordfishvegetable

I'm seeing lots of bad bearish arguments out there, so let's get back to the basics. The market has never bottomed before a recession, only during or after one. The market has never avoided recession following these levels of yield curve inversion.

@Swordfishv44183 - Swordfishvegetable

Timeline: 1: stocks rally as yields drop 2: stocks learn why yields are dropping 3: stocks decline with yields.

@Swordfishv44183 - Swordfishvegetable

Getting some $SPX vs $QQQ divergence. This is EXACTLY what we want to see as bears. Relative underperformance from tech. Now we just need it to last a while to confirm that this is a real change of trend.

@Swordfishv44183 - Swordfishvegetable

Warren Buffet's favorite broad market indicator, the ratio between market cap and GDP, remains above levels seen in the dot com bubble and the 1970s.

@Swordfishv44183 - Swordfishvegetable

Watch the relationship between $SPX, unemployment, and the federal funds rate. The unemployment rate inversely correlates to the market, and the federal funds rate leads the unemployment rate. We're at the point in the cycle where unemployment starts to rally.

@Swordfishv44183 - Swordfishvegetable

Just want to remind everyone how volatile some of the single up-days were during the top of the tech bubble. We're talking 17% intraday reversals. And everyone is worried about the $SPX up 1.5% on a macro report...

@Swordfishv44183 - Swordfishvegetable

Short interest on $QQQ just took a significant move lower onto a historically low level. Are bears finally capitulating?

@Swordfishv44183 - Swordfishvegetable

The ratio between the Nasdaq 100 and the $SPX has been moving higher all year. I'd like to see tech become a relative weakness before entering sizeable shorts. That's confirmation that the bear thesis is finally playing out. I expect this transition to come on a market rally.

@Swordfishv44183 - Swordfishvegetable

$SPY short interest is near historic lows. Have bears finally capitulated?

@Swordfishv44183 - Swordfishvegetable

The unemployment rate was 3.2% in 1929, 3.9% in 2000, and 4.4% in 2007, in case you thought a better-than-expected jobs report somehow barred us from all the economic data suggesting we're heading for a recession.

@Swordfishv44183 - Swordfishvegetable

Watch the relationship between $SPX and the yield curve since the 1990s. It's only after the top of the curve in an inverted environment that the market crashes and it's preceded initially by a decline in inversion. That's where we are now.

@Swordfishv44183 - Swordfishvegetable

Since 1961, $SPX has rallied 5941%. US money supply has increased by 6158% over the same period. The market only rallies nominally because we print 8% more yearly.

@Swordfishv44183 - Swordfishvegetable

Permanent job losses are trending higher. This preceded both the 2000 and 2008 market crashes and their recessions.

@Swordfishv44183 - Swordfishvegetable

If October 2022 was the low, that would've been one of the worst equity risk premiums at a market low ever. Now, because rates have moved higher with equity prices, equity risk premium is now at the same level it was at the 2007 high.

@Swordfishv44183 - Swordfishvegetable

$TLT seems to fit the 'stages in a bubble' chart rather well.

@Swordfishv44183 - Swordfishvegetable

Have you ever seen a bull market where quality dividend stocks drop 8% as the broad market rallies 11%? I sure haven't because it's not a bull market. It's a euphoric bubble in the highest-weighted names in the index.

@Swordfishv44183 - Swordfishvegetable

GAS prices just made their lowest close in 9-months. It's going to be hard to get an inflation rebound with such a decline in one of the highest-weighted participants.

@Swordfishv44183 - Swordfishvegetable

Historically, the most significant declines on the $SPX come when the yield curve is steepening from an inverted level. That's what we're seeing now, from one of the most inverted levels in history, while PE ratios are also historically high.

@Swordfishv44183 - Swordfishvegetable

Orange Juice Futures hit their limit-up halt today. This is one of the most incredible commodity moves I've ever seen.

@Swordfishv44183 - Swordfishvegetable

We're repeating the tech bubble, where a small set of companies are leading heavily on Turnover (Tick price * Volume) before reverting to the market mean. Credit: @PendulumFlow

@Swordfishv44183 - Swordfishvegetable

Evidence of consumer deterioration and what history says is likely to come next. A 🧵.

@Swordfishv44183 - Swordfishvegetable

Housing is the least affordable it's ever been, aside from the early 1980s. Home prices are up significantly over the last 2 years, and mortgage rates have more than doubled. https://t.co/p3HNMQAqr2

@Swordfishv44183 - Swordfishvegetable

Cars are nearly the least affordable they've ever been in history. It now takes 42 weeks of income to purchase a new Light Vehicle. https://t.co/jIzxXfFQTy

@Swordfishv44183 - Swordfishvegetable

While affordability is near all-time lows, the consumer savings rate remains near all-time lows, meaning that the consumer is both paying more and saving less. https://t.co/eEGpWFYYl9

@Swordfishv44183 - Swordfishvegetable

Total personal savings in the US are unchanged over the past decade, while prices have moved significantly higher. https://t.co/RQannHyIPm

@Swordfishv44183 - Swordfishvegetable

Consumers are also paying a historically high percentage of their income to service debt, with 6% of their disposable income going to the cause. https://t.co/nWaN6hbiKJ

@Swordfishv44183 - Swordfishvegetable

Consumer delinquency rates on credit card loans are on a 10-year high, trending higher at one of the fastest paces in history. https://t.co/MBKSGbNCJW

@Swordfishv44183 - Swordfishvegetable

Consumer delinquency rates on credit card loans made by small banks are at all-time highs, indicating that the lower credit consumer is suffering at a rate far beyond the historical mean. https://t.co/FVLPLwoevl

@Swordfishv44183 - Swordfishvegetable

The Unemployment rate has begun steepening Year-over-year, indicating that continued economic decline is likely, especially following an inverted yield curve. https://t.co/Il6hMkvDnp

@Swordfishv44183 - Swordfishvegetable

The number of people losing jobs permanently is up from the year-ago period, a signal that has previously indicated recession and a continued increase in unemployment. https://t.co/tQHStmPR0P

@Swordfishv44183 - Swordfishvegetable

Over the last 6 decades, a steepening yield curve following an inverted environment has led to a recession. We're seeing this exact situation again, except from one of the most inverted levels in history. https://t.co/WzsgGA3K0k

@Swordfishv44183 - Swordfishvegetable

A 12+ month high in the unemployment rate has indicated each recession over the last 6 decades. This threshold was met in the latest unemployment rate report. https://t.co/51JE755nVM

@Swordfishv44183 - Swordfishvegetable

There are many indications of broad consumer decline, and the history of the yield curve indicates we're likely to see a recession during this economic cycle.

@Swordfishv44183 - Swordfishvegetable

If October was the low, that would have been the highest PE ratio in the history of the entire $SPX at a low. Stocks don't bottom in a bear market with a PE of 26, ESPECIALLY when rates are now hitting 5%.

@Swordfishv44183 - Swordfishvegetable

Regarding timing a market decline, the yield curve has been one of the best indicators. $SPX declined during and throughout the yield curve steepening in 2000 and 2008, which is right about where we are now.

@Swordfishv44183 - Swordfishvegetable

The market has never bottomed before a recession, and the market has never avoided a recession at this level of yield curve inversion. History says October was not the low of $SPX.

@Swordfishv44183 - Swordfishvegetable

A divergence between bond and stock volatility of this level has only been seen once before: just before the GFC.

@Swordfishv44183 - Swordfishvegetable

No mega-cap company has ever had a P/S ratio over 40, except $NVDA at its high. The closest was $CSCO in 2000. $NVDA still has a P/S ratio of 33. 10 years ago, $NVDA's P/S ratio was 2. It's the Mother Of All Bubbles.

@Swordfishv44183 - Swordfishvegetable

A ban on short selling is a ban on short covering, about the only kind of buying you see in a market free fall. Short selling is a necessary part of the market. Every short sale is future purchase.

@Swordfishv44183 - Swordfishvegetable

In 2021, $SPX hit a very long-term inflation-adjusted trendline. The past times we hit this were in 1965 and 1999. Following these tags, the market declined on an inflation-adjusted basis for 10 and 17 years. I wonder if this timeline repeats again.

@Swordfishv44183 - Swordfishvegetable

This is the $SPX relative to federal reserve assets. We're unchanged over the 15 years following the GFC relative to federal reserve assets. It's unbelievable how reliant we are on stimulus.