TruthArchive.ai - Tweets Saved By @andrewmichta
@andrewmichta - Andrew A. Michta
🧵Moving between speeches, panels and round tables here at @MunSecConf I suddenly had this eerie feeling that perhaps this is what 1938 in Europe must have felt like. We all know that there is a storm brewing outside, but here inside the Bayerischer Hoff all seems normal. 1/
@andrewmichta - Andrew A. Michta
Shaking hands with European and American friends I have worked with over the past three decades, making new acquaintances—it all seems so routine. And yet it all changes suddenly when a Ukrainian parliamentarian pointedly tells the audience we are failing to act fast enough. 2/
@andrewmichta - Andrew A. Michta
Or when a Moldovan speaks of her country hanging by the fingernails, not knowing what comes tomorrow. Or when a Finn, a Balt, or a Pole doesn’t mince words to tell us all the truth about what’s riding on this war. But then the conversation seems to revert back to platitudes.3/
@andrewmichta - Andrew A. Michta
Was this what 1938 felt like before the German Nazi rape of Czechoslovakia? Satiated countries in the West issuing solemn assurances to Prague and others, but knowing deep in their bones that those checks would not be cashed? Because it was somebody else’s business, not ours? 4/
@andrewmichta - Andrew A. Michta
Over the past 2 days I sat down with Ukrainian parliamentarians. They spoke of their country’s struggle for survival with a passion you seldom hear in Western political circles. I was proud to be with them, but embarrassed that-while we ultimately do what’s right-we are so slow5/
@andrewmichta - Andrew A. Michta
So where does this leave us, especially Europe? Do we have what it takes to imbue our rhetoric with the requisite urgency when it comes to policy. Rhetoric is not policy. I’ve sat through too many discussions where everything has been said but not by everyone, so we droned on./6
@andrewmichta - Andrew A. Michta
It’s not rocket science. It’s about spending the money to produce weapons and munitions so we can send them to #Ukraine. It’s about agreeing what the end state should look like not for #Ukraine, but for all of us. It’s about imagination, leadership and courage. #ArmUkraineNow/End
@andrewmichta - Andrew A. Michta
🧵I’m increasingly convinced that #Putin and “Putinism” have been made possible by the accumulation of resentments across the Russian society. #Putinism has emerged from Russians’ inability to accept that they lost the Cold War because the Soviet Union could no longer compete 1/
@andrewmichta - Andrew A. Michta
#Putinism is akin to the DolchstoĂźlegende that emerged in Germany after its 1918 loss in Wold War I. It argued that the great German people were never defeated, but betrayed by cowardly politicians-stabbed in the back. That German legend fueled DEU interwar national resentment.2/
@andrewmichta - Andrew A. Michta
Roughly within a decade after WWI the DolchstoĂźlegende and the national resentment it fueled gave rise to Hitler and his attempt to re-litigate the outcome in 1918. Only the unequivocal defeat of Germany in 1945 buried the legend, foreclosing the path to empire through war.3/
@andrewmichta - Andrew A. Michta
At a risk of over-rationalizing history, I’d argue that for the past 30 yrs Russia has travelled a trajectory similar to that of interwar Germany. Putin’s neo-imperial aspirations are nested in a sea of RUS national resentment over loss of power & prestige on the world stage. 4/
@andrewmichta - Andrew A. Michta
The Russian story that Putin has been pushing is one of the West, having taken advantage of Russia’s weak leaders (Gorbachev, Yeltsin, etc) robbed Russia of it glory to diminish its “velikiy russkiy narod,” That it is now poised to destroy RUS civilization. 5/
@andrewmichta - Andrew A. Michta
If I’m right, the Russian threat to its neighbors and its neo-imperial drive will not end regardless whether Putin remains in power or not. In the long duree of Russian history, it can only break if Russia is decisively defeated in #Ukraine- in a way that every Russian sees it 6/
@andrewmichta - Andrew A. Michta
That’s why so much is riding on the outcome of the war in #Ukraine. If Russia wins it will see this as a civilizational victory over the West. It will be emboldened to press on into #Georgia, #Moldova and down even breaching the @NATO line. 7/
@andrewmichta - Andrew A. Michta
But if Russia is defeated in #Ukraine, the collapse of the legend of “velikiy russkiy narod” could unleash centrifugal forces in RUS that would foreclose its path to empire. It would be a period of instability & risk but it would offer Europe a path to peace. #ArmUkraineNow End