TruthArchive.ai - Tweets Saved By @cremieuxrecueil
@cremieuxrecueil - Crémieux
Air traffic control has a major problem in the pipeline. ATCs are underpaid and overworked. 99% of control towers were understaffed in 2023 and the number of communication mishaps and near-misses between commercial aircraft skyrocketed. I think the solution might be drones🧵 https://t.co/2Lp5BLJVIv
@cremieuxrecueil - Crémieux
You might think: Wait, haven't drones been smashing into planes recently? How are they going to help? That's true! I've attached some pictures of drone-related damage. It's real and getting worse, I'll give you that. The answer lies in drone communication.
@cremieuxrecueil - Crémieux
Drones don't yet, but they can start to, constitute a low-level communication and monitoring layer around airports and other protected airspace. Drones can relay information about the locations of other drones, obstacles, incoming planes, and so on. https://t.co/7wwqFzfuPX
@cremieuxrecueil - Crémieux
Drones can even supplement towers when there's bad weather. Deploy enough of them, with good enough cameras and sensors, and you've effectively multiplied the eyes on the ground and on the sky, and we can become less reliant on our currently overworked ATCs. https://t.co/x2gt0b768N
@cremieuxrecueil - Crémieux
This is a real value-add, because drones allow an extended view Beylond Visual Line Of Sight (BVLOS). The Trump administration's FAA is already launching pilot programs to test this, and it's rapidly moving them towards full approval.
@cremieuxrecueil - Crémieux
The other big value-add here is that this can be used to supply ATC-like plane coordinating capabilities to the 90% of U.S. airports that *have no air traffic control towers*. Those airports instead rely on a system of voluntary direct communication between pilots called CTAF. https://t.co/y3Lwh0eTb7
@cremieuxrecueil - Crémieux
That stat might be surprising. When I first heard it, I was shocked. I thought airports had to have air traffic control, but no, in fact, there aren't enough ATC operators to fill more than 11% of America's public-use airports, and there are arguably too few for even that! https://t.co/FGfddGMIUD
@cremieuxrecueil - Crémieux
CTAF is understandably worse at coordination and less reliable than having an ATC tower, but drones might let us circumvent this issue. You could theoretically expand the capabilities of a single operator or replace them entirely. Now, a company is doing just that.
@cremieuxrecueil - Crémieux
The company is @OureonTech, and they just came out of stealth on Monday. Before them, no one was working on this problem in the commercial space. They've already secured two demo sites. They're starting with drone comms and then moving up to full-size aircraft communication. https://t.co/uUTFmoIgAp
@cremieuxrecueil - Crémieux
My hope for them doing this is not just that we'll be able to reduce the burden on ATCs or that we'll be able to make them better or effectively put them in place at the 90% of airports they're missing from. The hope is that doing that can fund dual-use. https://t.co/YGF2fOQj8L
@cremieuxrecueil - Crémieux
When you see one of China's very impressive drone shows, what you are seeing is something that America needs, but doesn't yet have: Drone coordination. Due to regulatory issues, lack of domestic manufacturing, Chinese export controls, etc. America lags in the future of warfare.
@cremieuxrecueil - Crémieux
In future wars, drones will coordinate everything. They will find targets. They will kill. More than they currently do But China is ahead, so the people who will die will disproportionately be American China knows this. They invest in this. They fund the companies behind shows! https://t.co/UjIhWbzH9G
@cremieuxrecueil - Crémieux
America does not do funding like this. Historically, if America wants rapidly, cheaply, and well-produced weapons, it relies on companies that primarily make consumer goods in times of peace. If the market won't support it, you won't be ready when war comes. https://t.co/yyOR6yVpte
@cremieuxrecueil - Crémieux
What @OureonTech is doing is finding a market in which America can *finally* start working on its own drone swarms. These swarms will be put to use making Americans safer, but the same tech can be instantly repurposed to make America deadlier: to catch up and beat China!
@cremieuxrecueil - Crémieux
I'm excited for this. If all goes well, this will be one of the first arenas in which America gets an opportunity to fund working on its military by saving its people and fixing another alarming contemporary problem. https://t.co/1IKvluSCeG
@cremieuxrecueil - Crémieux
The Trump administration has officially taken a stance against debanking. That means that, soon enough, no more Americans will be deprived of being able to hold a bank account because of the opinions they hold. Americans will be free to think independently again🧵
@cremieuxrecueil - Crémieux
The executive order begins with some background: Americans, often at the behest of government officials, have been subject to the loss of access to financial services. That often meant having no access to bank accounts, debit and credit cards, investment tools, and so on.
@cremieuxrecueil - Crémieux
And then it gets to the meat: We want to stop this, because it is anti-freedom. Financial institutions should not be able to stop Americans from holding whatever views they want to. It's not their business, so they're being asked to stay out of it.
@cremieuxrecueil - Crémieux
You may ask: Doesn't this infringe on banks' rights to not do business with people they don't want to? "No" This is like the situation with universities and affirmative action: institutions are being asked not to discriminate if they want to interface with the government.
@cremieuxrecueil - Crémieux
If you want the government to guarantee your loans under its lending programs? Follow the government's rules. If you want the government to issue taxpayer-funded grants for research? Follow the government's rules. These institutions can opt out, but they would lose out.
@cremieuxrecueil - Crémieux
So, what happens first? Firstly, federal banking regulators will tell financial institutions to remove all material in their guidance that leads to debanking. Secondly, they will rescind regulations that encourage or expressly permit debanking.
@cremieuxrecueil - Crémieux
Next, the Small Business Administration will give financial institutions notice. The notices are to identify all debanked persons and to reach out to them to tell them they were debanked and that they can now have their accounts reinstated.
@cremieuxrecueil - Crémieux
The Order instructs Duffy and Hassett to plan to do more, which just means "You know what to do" and a plan was already developed. This just lets the public know whatever plan they came up with has the go-ahead. Regulators are also ordered to review and punish debankers.
@cremieuxrecueil - Crémieux
In effect, what has been called for here is for institutions to stop the practice of debanking, and to expose themselves for debanking. The regulators will also review their books, and if there's noncompliance with ending the practice of debanking, the government will prosecute.
@cremieuxrecueil - Crémieux
Debanking is a scourge, and this EO is the first step in ending it. If you want to read it, you can find it here: https://www.whitehouse.gov/presidential-actions/2025/08/guaranteeing-fair-banking-for-all-americans/
@cremieuxrecueil - Crémieux
Oh and, NB: The administration knows who to go after, because many financial institutions attempted to debank Trump himself! And plenty of the people in his administration were also targeted for harassment. It's obvious how this is going to proceed.
@cremieuxrecueil - Crémieux
NB II: Yes, this will stop payment processors from denying service to platforms like Steam and sites like itch(dot)io. This EO is going after the whole concept of "reputational risk".
@cremieuxrecueil - Crémieux
The admin added a fact sheet that includes some debanking examples. It's pretty clear that they'll be applying pressure towards AUPs via partner banks, the CFPB, limiting offboarding debanking, and that they have a lot of options to make this more expansive.
@cremieuxrecueil - Crémieux
I would suggest they - Push prudential regulators to "flow down" non-discrimination through sponsor banks: strip reputational risk from exams and bake objective, risk-based non-discrimination clauses into third-party/fintech contracts, binding processor that rely on those banks. - Use SBA hooks like what this first EO details. - Coordinate a Treasury-led plan that recommends prudential guidance about sponsor-bank contracts, FTC UDAP enforcement for nonbank processors, and maybe do a Hill push to amend fair access to explicitly cover card networks and processors, not just banks. Current text already covers payment card networks, so it's easy to extend to money transmitters/payment facilitators. - Review and extend fair access concepts at the OCC and make them sticky downstream. A revived OCC fair access posture forces partner banks to keep serving lawful merchants and to require processors on their rails to do the same absent bona fide risk. - Do a procurement squeeze. Condition federal payment vendors and agency merchants on non-discrimination commitments. An EO back in March already forces agencies onto electronic payments. That reaches a subset of big processors doing federal work and a larger subset connected to it, but doesn't bind the whole market. Fast fact sheet is here: https://www.whitehouse.gov/fact-sheets/2025/08/fact-sheet-president-donald-j-trump-guarantees-fair-banking-for-all-americans/ And yes, the original EO includes FDIC, because it's a FSOC member agency. Imagine a bank losing FDIC coverage because they just really want to debank someone. That would be very unwise.
@cremieuxrecueil - Crémieux
@JonathanAKRolfe That's right.
@cremieuxrecueil - Crémieux
@AssesAreDonkeys That also happened! https://www.whitehouse.gov/presidential-actions/2025/08/democratizing-access-to-alternative-assets-for-401k-investors/
@cremieuxrecueil - Crémieux
@birdmademejoin Yes. Anyone caught trying to manage reputational risk will be punished by regulators. That includes trying to beat up platforms like Steam and itch(dot)io. The Trump administration *hates* reputational risk as a concept and hates all associated practice.
@cremieuxrecueil - Crémieux
@Nicomp83098562 No, Congress lawfully delegated this power to the executive branch.
@cremieuxrecueil - Crémieux
The COVID era Paycheck Protection Program was defrauded at an incredible scale. People received PPP loans for total nonsense at stunning rates. Thread of funny claims. Dodge Hellcat LLC
@cremieuxrecueil - Crémieux
Reparations for Indigenous People LLC
@cremieuxrecueil - Crémieux
Just Traffic Tickets
@cremieuxrecueil - Crémieux
Free Money LLC
@cremieuxrecueil - Crémieux
Lobster
@cremieuxrecueil - Crémieux
They're Stealing Your Hubcaps Inc
@cremieuxrecueil - Crémieux
Fuck the System LLC
@cremieuxrecueil - Crémieux
PPP, LLC
@cremieuxrecueil - Crémieux
Rent LLC
@cremieuxrecueil - Crémieux
I Got Lunch
@cremieuxrecueil - Crémieux
Vacation
@cremieuxrecueil - Crémieux
GR&ASS
@cremieuxrecueil - Crémieux
Wakanda Murkledove
@cremieuxrecueil - Crémieux
If you spend enough time going through this, it becomes apparent: There are tons of businesses that have suspicious employee numbers (usually 1) and often enough, these suspicious loans were at the cap for sole proprietorships ($20,833), and they're addressed to wrong people.
@cremieuxrecueil - Crémieux
The Small Business Administration estimated that at least 70,000 of these loans are fraudulent, and given that these are denominates in the thousands, that adds up fast. People used these loans to buy Lamborghinis, Teslas, Ferraris, and lots of Dodge Hellcats.
@cremieuxrecueil - Crémieux
The nature of fraudulent PPP loans seems to mirror other low-class behavior. For example, tons of Hellcats obtained with PPP might be related to tons of Hellcats being targets for theft.
@cremieuxrecueil - Crémieux
The excessive spending of PPP loans on travel might be related to record numbers of unruly plane passengers.
@cremieuxrecueil - Crémieux
Excessive spending of PPP loans on lobster and crab was well-known. I invite you to search for the keywords "crabs", "lobster", "steak", "travel", and so on coupled with "PPP". It's stunning. Perhaps those record crab sales after loans went out were related.
@cremieuxrecueil - Crémieux
Free Money! New Wakanda! Reparations! There was an unreal amount of scamming going on and, per NBC, the dollar value may be 10% of the program's total spending. A program designed to go after this and recover funds seems laudable, but I doubt they're very recoverable. Ah well.
@cremieuxrecueil - Crémieux
Here's a search tool if you want to look into this yourself: https://projects.propublica.org/coronavirus/bailouts/search?q=hellcat and h/t @ManDaveJobGood, who's been cataloguing so much of this. NBC: https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/justice-department/biggest-fraud-generation-looting-covid-relief-program-known-ppp-n1279664 Hellcat theft: https://jgdattack.eu/blog/en/hellcats-on-the-hunt-the-rising-theft-of-dodge-s-muscle-icons Crabs: https://www.seafoodnews.com/Story/1183203/ANALYSIS-King-Crab-Demand-Improving-During-Pandemic
@cremieuxrecueil - Crémieux
Here's the estimated scale of the fraud from the Office of Inspector General at the U.S. Small Business Administration: https://www.sba.gov/document/report-23-09-covid-19-pandemic-eidl-ppp-loan-fraud-landscape
@cremieuxrecueil - Crémieux
Apparently Baltimore cops are going after known criminals for their PPP shenanigans. If anyone has more info on this and anything like it, post it please. https://t.co/QWDumkmhbs
@cremieuxrecueil - Crémieux
As a reminder in case you skipped over it, Free Money LLC had their loans forgiven. They got to keep that fraudulently obtained money. Feel like a sucker yet?
@cremieuxrecueil - Crémieux
As noted in the thread, there were also plenty of cases of people registering businesses to other people's addresses. You can even find people online claiming that they got PPP loans for businesses they didn't own. It's not hard to see why this fraud could be hard to investigate https://t.co/4Hef8PJO1L
@cremieuxrecueil - Crémieux
In Trump's first term, his staff were underqualified and didn't know that the civil servants left behind from the Obama years were lying to them. In this egregious example, career DOL employees simply lied and then proved they were lying the day Biden came into power. https://t.co/X4MQF0rHG3
@cremieuxrecueil - Crémieux
OK, this is just absurd now. The Biden-Harris administration has attacked three emergency services agencies in a week because apparently these exams are too hard for Black people. Want to see how hard this exam is? Let's look at some questions. First up:
@CivilRights - DOJ Civil Rights Division
Justice Department Sues South Bend, Indiana, for Discriminating Against Black and Female Police Officer Applicants 🔗: https://www.justice.gov/opa/pr/justice-department-sues-south-bend-indiana-discriminating-against-black-and-female-police
@cremieuxrecueil - Crémieux
For the next two questions, you'll have to use the following information that you can reference at any time during the test:
@cremieuxrecueil - Crémieux
Can you do basic division? You can't use a calculator for this, but you are given scratch paper.
@cremieuxrecueil - Crémieux
Onto reading comprehension! The first thing to note here is this passage, which will be used for the next five questions:
@cremieuxrecueil - Crémieux
First question here requires you to have... well, just read the paragraph, really.
@cremieuxrecueil - Crémieux
The next four questions should also be self-evident if you read the paragraph you were asked to read and which you can reference at any time.
@cremieuxrecueil - Crémieux
This question provides you with an answer key and then asks you to select the answer it tells you in the passage. The tricky part? Well, there's no tricky part except you're supposed to not assume anything beyond what you're told.
@cremieuxrecueil - Crémieux
Here's a blank incident report and an associated paragraph. The next section is going to ask you whether you can fill this baby out given what you're told.
@cremieuxrecueil - Crémieux
Do you have what it takes to read the paragraph above? Apparently 16% of White and 38% of Black test-takers do not. With equal variances, that's a 0.69 d difference.
@cremieuxrecueil - Crémieux
Now we're onto the really fun part: Do you have basic grammatical skills?! Some people apparently don't, so pardon me for asking!
@cremieuxrecueil - Crémieux
For the final section, you're asked to fill out incident report forms correctly. This is the example you're given:
@cremieuxrecueil - Crémieux
Then you have to write out when this incident took place, the name of the suspect, the phone number of the victim, the suspect's weight, and the value of the stolen jewelry. It's that simple. Got it?
@cremieuxrecueil - Crémieux
These are easy tests, but there's another thing to this case too. The Department of Justice is also upset that women do poorly on the physical exam, because the female recruits are basically physically incompetent to perform the job duties of a police officer.
@cremieuxrecueil - Crémieux
The physical test asks applicants to... Jump at least 13.5 inches, do 24 sit-ups in a minute, run 300 meters in 82 seconds, do 21 push-ups with no time limit, run 1.5 miles in at least 18 minutes 56 seconds, and squeeze a pistol trigger 6 times in 10 seconds or less.
@cremieuxrecueil - Crémieux
If you cannot pass that physical test, like 53% of women and 17% of men, then you, frankly, should not be a cop. Just be real. If you cannot pass the written exam, you aren't competent to be a cop. You'll clearly be more likely to cause an incident than a smarter officer.
@cremieuxrecueil - Crémieux
But the Biden-Harris administration does not care about excellence in policing, firefighting, or apparently anything else. THREE TIMES in one week, they've attacked emergency services for having standards that are so low the bar is buried in the ground.
@cremieuxrecueil - Crémieux
The other two agencies the Department of Justice senselessly and counterproductively attacked crumpled immediately under pressure. The City of South Bend didn't. They're vowing to fight this one.
@cremieuxrecueil - Crémieux
I hope they win. I hope that attacks on meritocracy in the name of anti-discrimination come to an end and America can start to prioritize excellence in its public services again, instead of kowtowing to anti-meritocratic bureaucrats in weaponized agencies.
@cremieuxrecueil - Crémieux
Important detail: The test used in South Bend is the NPOST. The NPOST is developed by Stanards and Associates and endorsed by the Indiana Association of Police Chiefs. This test is used in many more departments nationally. The DOJ is thus, prepared to go after all of them.
@cremieuxrecueil - Crémieux
The DOJ is rearing to attack every police department in the United States. They will make police less competent everywhere in the name of defending against injustices that only exist in the heads of the country's most neurotic bureaucrats.
@cremieuxrecueil - Crémieux
This includes the United States Capitol Police: https://www.uscp.gov/sites/evo-subsites/uscp.house.gov/files/documents/POST%20Study%20Guide_Updated%20Nov%202022.pdf Study questions referenced in thread here: https://www.pfpa.mil/Portals/93/Images/Documents/POST%20STUDY%20GUIDE.pdf?ver=2019-08-08-081749-397×tamp=1565266675820 Pass rates in South Bend: https://www.southbendtribune.com/story/news/local/2024/10/11/south-bend-sued-for-discriminatory-police-applicant-tests/75629163007/ Statement: https://www.abc57.com/news/us-justice-department-files-lawsuit-against-south-bend-for-discriminatory-hiring-practices Physical fitness standards: https://police.southbendin.gov/start-career-sbpd
@cremieuxrecueil - Crémieux
Lots of people are saying this is frivolous because firefighters should have to pass some test, but let's go ahead and look at some test questions so you can see why this test is just way too hard. This first one's a doozy:
@CivilRights - DOJ Civil Rights Division
Justice Department Secures Agreement with Durham, North Carolina, to End Discriminatory Hiring Practices in City’s Fire Department 🔗: https://www.justice.gov/opa/pr/justice-department-secures-agreement-durham-north-carolina-end-discriminatory-hiring
@cremieuxrecueil - Crémieux
Sorry if you're already struggling, but please know: You're not allowed to use a calculator for this one.
@cremieuxrecueil - Crémieux
For this question, you'll need to refer to the paragraph on top and the provided burn chart for your estimates:
@cremieuxrecueil - Crémieux
I think the Office of Public Affairs' advice for this question is 'pray to god', but I could be wrong:
@cremieuxrecueil - Crémieux
OK now we're off the mathematics. It's time to do the Ladder Usage section. For the following questions, you'll need this background information you can refer back to at any time.
@cremieuxrecueil - Crémieux
It's ladderin' time. Remember, you can feel free to refer back to the information you were just provided to answer this one.
@cremieuxrecueil - Crémieux
These next four questions are much the same. The department really wants to see if you could face up to that paragraph and not run away in fear.
@cremieuxrecueil - Crémieux
For the next section, we have to talk Human Relations. For this part, you're going to be presented with a scenario and some options, and you'll have to choose which of the options is the best and which is the worst possible response. For example: Should you steal from drunks?
@cremieuxrecueil - Crémieux
Here's another. Remember, we're testing whether you've got the moral hardware for firefighting.
@cremieuxrecueil - Crémieux
How should firefighter Green let his coworkers know he feels left out of all the firefighting fun?
@cremieuxrecueil - Crémieux
For this question, you'll appreciate that the exemplar is Hispanic, and thus this test is culturally inclusive. Anyway... is firefighter Garcia lazy and how can he not appear lazy to his coworkers?
@cremieuxrecueil - Crémieux
For the second-to-last section, you'll need to prove you can understand people's writing. For the first two, pick the words that best complete the sentence, and for the next one, pick the most acceptable sentence.
@cremieuxrecueil - Crémieux
OK, we're onto the last section: map reading. For this one, you'll need to refer back to this map, got it?
@cremieuxrecueil - Crémieux
Everything is signed and labeled. Should be easy, right? You remember what N, S, E, and W on the compass rose refer to, right? You remember what a compass rose is, right?
@cremieuxrecueil - Crémieux
OK now serious note: This is an easy test. 37% of Blacks and 11% of Whites failed it. That's a 0.90 d gap with equal variances, which is basically exactly what we expect out of a slightly select random sample of Blacks and Whites.
@cremieuxrecueil - Crémieux
Disparate impact cases basically say that if you're administering any test that isn't totally trivial and is unbiased, and thus you're administering an IQ test, then you cannot have IQ test results show up on it. In other words, it is illegal to find Blacks are less intelligent.
@cremieuxrecueil - Crémieux
This is obviously not a good situation, because we know from the tests that there really are intelligence difference between races that are real, unbiased, and meaningful. Really: https://www.aporiamagazine.com/p/bias-is-often-unpredictable
@cremieuxrecueil - Crémieux
Now if you aren't sure if you aced this exam, you can go check out the answers to the practice questions here: https://docs.bryantx.gov/hr/StudyGuide.pdf But really: You shouldn't need to... right? Right?!?
@cremieuxrecueil - Crémieux
Lots of people attacking this decision, but do you think YOU could pass the POST? Here's a thread of test questions. Question 1: https://t.co/i68yewH945
@theblaze - TheBlaze
Female, black applicants who failed Maryland State Police tests likely to receive $2.75M in backpay from discrimination suit dlvr.it/TDyr2D https://t.co/y8u4szjYuQ
@cremieuxrecueil - Crémieux
If you're already struggling, don't worry, just keep plugging in your answers. For questions 2 and 3 you'll have to do some addition and subtraction: https://t.co/XbIsvsl2BI
@cremieuxrecueil - Crémieux
The test might seem too tough for you now, but just wait until you see question number 4: https://t.co/jYJjJKDL4w
@cremieuxrecueil - Crémieux
Question 5 separates the men from the boys, or apparently, the men women from the women: https://t.co/NXHeY7O7uI
@cremieuxrecueil - Crémieux
Now we're going to transition from the mathematics section to reading comprehension. Before getting to the questions, read this paragraph. You'll need it for questions 6 through 10: https://t.co/giTArpL83G
@cremieuxrecueil - Crémieux
Giving up yet? Well hang in there. Questions 12 and 13 rely on this material: https://t.co/33CoB1u37u
@cremieuxrecueil - Crémieux
Now you have to answer the hard questions like 'Can you read a paragraph that contains the answer?' https://t.co/xgCzOamOzH
@cremieuxrecueil - Crémieux
The following questions ask you to identify spelling and grammatical errors and to insert the correct word where it fits: https://t.co/gA0BH8Xv5F
@cremieuxrecueil - Crémieux
Question 18 also asks you to identify a spelling error. This can be a hard one! https://t.co/k9AvtZ8BvF
@cremieuxrecueil - Crémieux
Now here's how you do the final section. You have to fill out forms correctly, according to a style guide everyone is provided. https://t.co/yiSx18Uiit
@cremieuxrecueil - Crémieux
The questions are based on this. You have to fill in which items were stolen, where the victim lived, the suspect's name and address, the suspect's clothing items, and the names of the officers assigned to the complaint. https://t.co/zQVdah8peC
@cremieuxrecueil - Crémieux
Now, without sarcasm, if you fail this sort of test, something is wrong with you. This test is incredibly easy and you would have to be illiterate and innumerate to fail. And yet, 9% of Whites and 29% of Blacks fail. Incidentally, with equal variances, that's a 0.79 d difference
@cremieuxrecueil - Crémieux
That difference is what's expected based on the Black-White difference in the general population with a bit of selection into test-taking added. It matches up with what we know to be unbiased differences in other tests of police officers (e.g., on the WAIS).
@cremieuxrecueil - Crémieux
Now what do the women fail? Well, 49% of them can't do 18 push-ups in a minute, 27 sit-ups in a minute, run 1.5 miles in 15m20s, and reach 1.5 inches past their toes while seated. They're pathetically physically incapable, so that's the department's fault.
@cremieuxrecueil - Crémieux
The Maryland Department of State Police would need to show that the thresholds used in the test have equal predictive power by sex, that they're relevant to the job, etc. Everyone knows a physical test is fine, but justifying it is obviously hard.
@cremieuxrecueil - Crémieux
You could argue that maybe the female officers won't be stepping into the line of duty, or that the test just doesn't work at all, but argue that. Otherwise, we get yet another senseless attack on having even bottom of the barrel standards. It's pathetic.
@cremieuxrecueil - Crémieux
Now if you really couldn't figure out the POST question answers, here's a link to the answer sheet: https://mdsp.maryland.gov/Careers/Trooper%20and%20Cadet%20Application%20Documents/POST%20Study%20Guide_MSP.pdf
@cremieuxrecueil - Crémieux
I have a pretty major update for one of my articles. It has to do with Justice Jackson's comment that when Black newborns are delivered by Black doctors, they're much more likely to survive, justifying racially discriminatory admissions. We now know she was wrong🧵
@cremieuxrecueil - Crémieux
So if you don't recall, here's how Justice Jackson described the original study's findings. She was wrong to describe it this way, because she mixed up percentage points with percentages, and she's referring to the uncontrolled rather than the fully-controlled effect.
@cremieuxrecueil - Crémieux
After I saw her mention this, I looked into the study and found that its results all seemed to have p-values between 0.10 and 0.01. Or in other words, the study was p-hacked.
@cremieuxrecueil - Crémieux
If you look across all of the paper's models, you see that all the results are borderline significant at best, and usually just-nonsignificant, which is a sign of methodological tomfoolery and results that are likely fragile. With all that said, I recommended ignoring the paper.
@cremieuxrecueil - Crémieux
Today, a reanalysis has come out, and it doesn't tell us why the coefficients are all at best marginally significant, but instead, why they're all in the same direction. The reason has to do with baby birthweights.
@cremieuxrecueil - Crémieux
So, first thing: (A) At very low birthweights, babies have higher mortality rates, and they're similar across baby races; (B) At very low birthweights, babies have higher mortality rates, and they're similar across physician races.
@cremieuxrecueil - Crémieux
Second thing: Black infants tend to have lower birthweights. MIxed infants tend to birthweights in-between Blacks and Whites, and there's a mother effect, such that Black mothers have smaller mixed babies than White mothers (selection is still possible)
@cremieuxrecueil - Crémieux
Third thing: (A) Black babies with high birthweights disproportionately go to Black doctors; (B) The Black babies sent to White doctors disproportionately have very low birthweights.
@cremieuxrecueil - Crémieux
If you control for birthweight when running the original authors' models, two things happen. For one, they fit a lot better. For two, the apparently beneficial effect of patient-doctor racial concordance for Black babies disappears:
@cremieuxrecueil - Crémieux
At this point, we have to ask ourselves why the original study didn't control for birthweight. One sentence in the original paper suggests the authors knew it was a potential issue, but they still failed to control for it.
@cremieuxrecueil - Crémieux
PNAS also played an important role in keeping the public misinformed because they didn't mandate that the paper include its specification, so no one could see if birthweight was controlled. If we had known the full model details, surely someone would have called this out earlier.
@cremieuxrecueil - Crémieux
Ultimately, we have ourselves yet another case of PNAS publishing highly popular rubbish and it taking far too long to get it corrected. Let me preregister something else: The original paper will continue to be cited more than the correction with the birthweight control.
@cremieuxrecueil - Crémieux
The public will continue to be misled by the original, bad result. PNAS should probably retract it for the good of the public, but if I had to bet, they won't. So people like Justice Jackson will continue to cite it to support their case for racial discrimination.
@cremieuxrecueil - Crémieux
They'll continue doing that even though they're wrong. To learn more and to find the article linked, check out my post on this: https://www.cremieux.xyz/p/missing-fixed-effects-dont-justify
@cremieuxrecueil - Crémieux
Paleo artists often "shrink wrap" fossilized animal depictions The T-Rex, Utahraptor, Triceratops—popular depictions of each of these animals shows skin so close to bone that it might be unrealistic So let's shrink-wrap existing animals🧵 Can you guess what this is?
@cremieuxrecueil - Crémieux
Preemptive note: All of this artwork is from C.M. Koseman, whose book (which is way more extensive than this thread) and some other material is linked at the end of the thread. The last animal was a rhinoceros—the thing with the cooling heat sail! Any idea what this animal is?
@cremieuxrecueil - Crémieux
That last one might seem to be a dog, but it's actually a horse. It's not so clear what this graceful beast might be.
@cremieuxrecueil - Crémieux
The last picture was of a cow. What about this monster? Its jaws can crush a steel car.
@cremieuxrecueil - Crémieux
That metal-breaker was a hippopotamus. This pack-hunting animal has a killer stare and wields a set of five switchblade claws on its forefeet. What might it be?
@cremieuxrecueil - Crémieux
That was the house cat. This one's a bit more mysterious, and clearly adapted to be a stealthy predator, right?
@cremieuxrecueil - Crémieux
If you guessed that was a spider monkey, kudos to you. Future paleontologists might consider it an arboreal variation on humans, its cursorial relatives. What of this one? It's not clear to future paleontologists if it's quadrupedal or bipedal.
@cremieuxrecueil - Crémieux
That's the toad, which paleontologists might consider to be a long-legged forest ambler. Any idea what this one is? Without preserved feathers, guessing might be hard!
@cremieuxrecueil - Crémieux
If you guessed "Vulture", you're correct. But you probably didn't guess that! You almost certainly won't guess this one.
@cremieuxrecueil - Crémieux
That was a species of casque-headed hornbill, and paleontologists might suspect they use the casque for mating rituals. But we don't even know what they do with them in many cases today! How's about this twofer? Note predator and prey:
@cremieuxrecueil - Crémieux
If you guessed the "Swan" and the "Tadpole" (mistakenly believed to be a form of fish), then you were right. What about this cute little predator?
@cremieuxrecueil - Crémieux
That was an iguana, and due to fur being found on other small vertebrates like rats, it's assumed to have fur too. Who's this courser?
@cremieuxrecueil - Crémieux
That was a rabbit, but we wouldn't know it because posture is poorly preserved in fossils! Now this one is simultaneously reassuring and disheartening. What might it be?
@cremieuxrecueil - Crémieux
That's a python, and it might be assumed to have feet to support its body, much like the lizards its skeleton resembles. After all, we only have fragmentary remains! Who's this guy?
@cremieuxrecueil - Crémieux
That's a manatee. Remember, habitats change. A sea creature might be found in what's now a forested mountain. We might also only have remains like skulls. This guy has a balloon-like facial sac. What might he be?
@cremieuxrecueil - Crémieux
That's a bull elephant, and because no other animals have long, muscular appendages, he ends up with a face sac instead of his well-known trunk. Time to dive underwater. This one might seem to be a dolphin, but think outside the box.
@cremieuxrecueil - Crémieux
It's a sperm whale, incorrectly believed to be a hunter of large pray. You know, like sharks. What's this kelp forest stalker?
@cremieuxrecueil - Crémieux
Why that's a bowhead whale of course! And as we know from its skeleton's extensible jaws, it must prey on animals as large as itself! Going back to the land, who are we looking at now?
@cremieuxrecueil - Crémieux
Because of its complicated nasal sinuses, the baboon might be assumed to have had venom glands and to have been a coursing hunter! These guys have curved foot claws, sometimes serrated bills, and wings shorter than their legs. They must be vampiric!
@cremieuxrecueil - Crémieux
But that's not the case, it's just an odd animal. It's a hummingbird, the only animal in its strange niche, and thus a prime candidate for misinterpretation! Finally, who the hell is this?
@cremieuxrecueil - Crémieux
That might be the first example of shrink wrapping and distorting the fossil record: the animal proposed to be pre-flood man, or Homo diluvii by Johann Jakob Scheuchzer in 1726 But though he thought he had evidence for the flood, he was describing the fossil of a salamander!
@cremieuxrecueil - Crémieux
How we think about ancient animals is probably distorted by a tendency to shrink wrap their depictions and a desire to find function in form. But much of what we observe in animals today, we still can't explain. Skin also drags, and feathers and fur abound (but not universally).
@cremieuxrecueil - Crémieux
If you want to see more on this subject, I recommend the whole book, which contains many more illustrations and details for all of them. Get it here: https://www.amazon.com/All-Yesterdays-Speculative-Dinosaurs-Prehistoric/dp/1291177124
@cremieuxrecueil - Crémieux
And if you're interested in speculation about possible futures, C.M. Koseman's All Tomorrows is spectacular. You can see it summarized on YouTube, here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=imNtSPM3-r4
@cremieuxrecueil - Crémieux
Koseman isn't the only person to have illustrated this issue either. This opossum, for example, comes from the HowStuffWorks Tumblr: https://howstuffworks.tumblr.com/post/51261226252/alphynix-theres-a-trend-in-paleoart-known-as Here's more: https://imgur.com/a/BEz4r
@cremieuxrecueil - Crémieux
There is an error in describing sperm whales in the thread: https://t.co/mKCR9ugoRC The issue is more that they would probably be thought of as behaving like sharks in the far future, but they're actually pretty social and frequently team players.
@cremieuxrecueil - Crémieux
The artist for All Yesterdays and All Tomorrows has a Twitter account: https://t.co/eDQbpBPs7d The opossum artist also has an account: https://t.co/GuIzMSbUaO And the artist behind the inflated T-rex is apparently the creator of One Punch Man: https://t.co/o1isRAytWs
@cremieuxrecueil - Crémieux
This paper was finally accepted! TL;DR: The Communists persecuted intellectuals, but the intellectuals persisted. The areas the Soviets sent those "Enemies of the People" to are more successful today, with higher GDPs, more profitable firms, and greater average wages. Short🧵
@AEAjournals - AEA Journals
Forthcoming in AEJ: Macroeconomics: "Enemies of the People" by Gerhard Toews and Pierre-Louis Vézina. https://www.aeaweb.org/articles?id=10.1257/mac.20220231&from=f
@cremieuxrecueil - Crémieux
The study also found that the descendants of "Enemies of the People" are better off today, despite their grandparents having everything taken from them by the Communists. https://t.co/6Kwrl4Wq6P
@cremieuxrecueil - Crémieux
During their lifetimes, "Enemies of the People" faced persecution and prejudice. The Communists were able to steal people's land, possessions, families, and rights, but those people were still able to pass on their brilliance. Today, that still makes all the difference.
@cremieuxrecueil - Crémieux
The RAF uses aptitude tests for recruits. A recent Freedom of Information request made the data for 2015-2020 available, and it looks like this:
@cremieuxrecueil - Crémieux
Another set of FOI requests for data from the Police SEARCH Recruit Assessment Centre showed similar results. Notably, in the National Police Promotion Framework's Step Two Inspector examination (FOIA-2020-156), Blacks scored 91.39 in 2017, 91.35 in 2018, and 97.01 in 2019.
@cremieuxrecueil - Crémieux
If you'd like to know more, check out my latest article: https://www.cremieux.xyz/p/explaining-anomalous-gcse-results
@cremieuxrecueil - Crémieux
Militaries have done aptitude testing for a long time. They've noticed group differences too. For instance, the U.S. military's cognitive tests from World War I showed a 1.096 d Black-White gap among enlisted men: https://gwern.net/doc/iq/1966-shuey-thetestingofnegrointelligencevol1.pdf#page=341 Today, the gap is 1.08 d.
@cremieuxrecueil - Crémieux
This is such a great chart for showing off how good economists have gotten at stabilizing the economy. https://t.co/sycRZVRdbs
@cremieuxrecueil - Crémieux
What effect do 1st- and 2nd-generation immigrants have on a country's PISA scores? To understand this, we'll need to know two quantities. 1. How well immigrants perform relative to natives. 2. How numerous immigrants are relative to natives. 🧵 First, immigrant-native gaps: https://t.co/oY7Jv165kk
@cremieuxrecueil - Crémieux
America's most controversial philosopher has been banned from his campus at SUNY Fredonia. The university says they have to do it because if he stays on campus, there's a risk he'll inspire terrorism. Let's look through some of this man's philosophical contributions!🧵 https://t.co/4lCUIiKfA6
@cremieuxrecueil - Crémieux
One of his contributions is the idea that it is morally permissible to discount women's applications. Indeed, the strong form of this argument says that people are obligated to discriminate against women. https://t.co/nyDu5WkrVc
@cremieuxrecueil - Crémieux
He has also argued for a policy of killing people. Specifically, killing bad people. "Just War" theory may say assassination is bad, but, Stephen argues, that needs to change. https://t.co/Pgv0VEsBeq
@cremieuxrecueil - Crémieux
Much of Stephen's work is philanthropically defending the defenseless and other of society's victims. For example, he's a defender of people who have a romantic preference for Asians. https://t.co/xvZzUNjn8t
@cremieuxrecueil - Crémieux
He sometimes delves into heavy topics, like the conditions under which trash talk is moral and permissible. https://t.co/QuQfr6XO2C
@cremieuxrecueil - Crémieux
He's willing to say the things that no one else will, like that slavery is OK and it's not clear why it isn't, speaking as a liberal. https://t.co/BoADEtwFSE
@cremieuxrecueil - Crémieux
Speaking of slavery, he's also talked about reparations. TL;DR: no one owes them; it's not clear who inherits the right to them; if said right existed, it's dispersed among many and it's less plausible with each generation; and since slave descendants do a lot of crime... QED. https://t.co/pedukPYXCE
@cremieuxrecueil - Crémieux
He's willing to take this further and make it into a full-blown principle: if you can't quantify the damage, you're not owed anything. https://t.co/Qxq2r2xuLK
@cremieuxrecueil - Crémieux
He's willing to argue that sexual fantasies—non-perceptual thoughts that are sexually arousing—aren't immoral, unless you're a consequentialist. https://t.co/JorMpPA6A0
@cremieuxrecueil - Crémieux
Without him, would we understand the morality of faking orgasms? https://t.co/5ttRDyjT40
@cremieuxrecueil - Crémieux
Should we torture people during interrogation? He argues that it's not morally impermissible. There are many scenarios in which it's fine, but this ultimately hinges on whether it works. https://t.co/7XMr61Frg4
@cremieuxrecueil - Crémieux
In fact, he's written an entire book-length defense of torture. https://t.co/HtaZHSgNKI
@cremieuxrecueil - Crémieux
Many colleges have taken a turn against hazing and sought to ban the practice. He argues that, since hazing involves informed consent, they should permit it. https://t.co/Rc9fQnTVoe
@cremieuxrecueil - Crémieux
He's argued that being religiously pro-life doesn't really make sense. How can abortion be killing and it still be wrong to harm abortion doctors? Something doesn't add up! https://t.co/5Lk9tWbTg7
@cremieuxrecueil - Crémieux
He's argued, rather than comparing population means, we should compare population totals, size differences and all, for health cost-benefit analyses. Say a minority group suffers from a rare but treatable disease. Why treat it when you can give out aspirin to majority members? https://t.co/jt3LfKdGcc
@cremieuxrecueil - Crémieux
One of the arguments for affirmative action is that it promotes experiential diversity on college campuses. But, he argues, this is probably not justifiable, and the idea that minority beliefs will rub off on majorities doesn't even seem relevant. https://t.co/aAr0I0fyOm
@cremieuxrecueil - Crémieux
He's also argued that it's not exactly clear why Americans are grateful to veterans and, in fact, they shouldn't be! https://t.co/Rjpfa4tVvC
@cremieuxrecueil - Crémieux
So why is Stephen Kershnar being kicked off campus? The campus police chief claimed—rightly or wrongly—that his presence was a danger to others. You know who might be willing to argue this case? Stephen Kershnar. https://t.co/v2892Jc0i9
@cremieuxrecueil - Crémieux
My friend has made another graph! This one shows the proportions of academics surveyed in 1970 and 2018 that reported being liberal. Over 48 years, the academy had gone from an even split to 9/10 academics being a liberal.
