@foxenflask - bad robot ventures
Dear $GME Community, I see a lot of people hung up on the “additional materials…coming this week” statement released on June 23rd as a part of the presser that announced RC withdrawing his comp package. You must have missed it, but GameStop released another presser on June 26th and updated the language to “Additional materials regarding the proposed transaction are forthcoming”. No need to be so emotional about it. Thank you for your attention to this matter.
@foxenflask - bad robot ventures
The merger math isn’t really subtle at this point. But this is my attempt to simplify it for anyone still confused. Please keep in mind I am going off the original offer that was rejected and current known facts, both of which may and will change here shortly. $GME has ~449M shares out with room for 2.5B. $EBAY has ~448M shares and 3.58B authorized. Trailing, eBay earns ~3.2x more per share than GameStop (TTM: GME $1.34, EBAY $4.33). Forward, GameStop just printed $0.66 in Q1 (≈$2.64 annualized) and guided FY26 EBITDA >$600M, while Ryan’s $2B cuts take eBay EPS from $4.26 to 7.79 (+83%). On NewCo equity math, an ~$12B GameStop is bidding ~$56B for eBay at $125/share, half cash and half GME stock. That stock leg alone is roughly $27-28B of equity handed to current eBay holders in new GameStop shares, versus about $12B of pre‑deal GameStop equity value, leaving legacy GameStop holders with ~30% of the combined equity and today’s eBay holders with ~70% on day one. On paper, that is 30/70. In economic reality however, GameStop is already long ~9% of eBay via stock and derivatives, so roughly 9% of that 70% slice is preowned by the same shareholder base, pushing GameStop’s effective claim on NewCo into the mid to high 30s before any buybacks, with a clear path toward ~40% as the combined entity delevers and retires stock over time post-acquisition. GameStop is handing eBay shareholders most of NewCo on paper while quietly keeping a growing economic grip and eventually, total control on a much bigger EPS and FCF machine it is already long and can lever and buy back into.
@foxenflask - bad robot ventures
Ryan has been stacking disclosures and news with $GME for almost two months now through official channels: - $2B buyback program announced (liquidity stack $9.7B, Stockholders’ equity $5.8B) - Record earnings dropped early, historic beats across the board - eBay investment position already up hundreds of % since buying in early February - Ryan cancels his own comp package - Ryan personally pledges $500M of his own capital into eBay, making GME’s position even more accretive - Releases first ever forward EBITDA guidance (in the RC era) projecting $600M adjusted EBITDA for 2026 up from $345.4M in 2025 - Trailing Twelve Month: $3.73B revenue, $763M net income, $740M FCF, with 9 consecutive profitable quarters - Hitting the PR circuit hard throughout, with appearances on major podcasts and news channels Despite all this, what happens with the stock? Believe it or not, DIP. The markets are broken, or at least wrong on this stock.
@foxenflask - bad robot ventures
Everybody is busy thinking about how $GME is going to put together the money for the $EBAY acquisition, how the equity roll-in is going to work, and where they are going to find a therapist for their non-stop crying. But there is one possibility nobody has seriously considered and I’m quite shocked that they haven’t: maybe GameStop won't need ANY financing. Why am I shocked? Look at the playbook Ryan Cohen already ran in the past. In 2020, RC Ventures quietly began acquiring shares of a struggling, mismanaged retailer, first a 9% stake, then about 12.9%. He wrote an open letter torching the board's internal incompetence, demanded a strategic review, and leveraged his shareholder position into three immediate board seats in January 2021. Within months the entire executive suite was cleared out, the board was flipped, and he took over. He never needed to buy GameStop outright because he bought control and let governance do the rest. Fast forward to 2026, GameStop already holds roughly 9% of eBay and is still accumulating, and Proposal 4 on eBay's June 17 ballot would lower the special meeting threshold from 20% to 10%, a proposal that has already cleared 47% support three separate times. If it passes, Ryan only needs to reach 10% ownership to call a special meeting, force a board vote, install his people, and be effectively running eBay before the ink is dry on a single acquisition document. From there he either accumulates the rest of the float over time like Buffett did with GEICO, or engineers a merger once he controls both sides of the table. That is Icahn's ferocity fused with Buffett's patience, and it is the one scenario nobody on Wall Street or Main Street has modeled. Have a good weekend 🍻
@foxenflask - bad robot ventures
Years from now, I’ll look back on this moment with real pride, knowing this $GME shareholder community played an instrumental role in pushing the $EBAY acquisition forward alongside Ryan. We were the 425 pressure campaign. We didn’t ask what the company could do for us; we asked what we could do for the company. We open sourced DD and we memed like we’ve never memed before. I love each and every one of you, and I love GameStop! Let’s see this through to the finish line!
@foxenflask - bad robot
Now we know what Ryan Cohen meant when he said $GME is going to attempt something “never been done before” in the history of the capital markets. Currently they have 6.55% exposure to a $50B+ company (eBay) using <$10M cash, which is around 0.1% of GameStop’s total assets under management. I would say that is quite unprecedented.
@foxenflask - bad robot
$GME Q2 2025 Earnings Summary: • Net sales $972m compared to $798m in Q2 2024 and $732m in Q1 2024 (+21.8% YoY, +32.8% QoQ) • SG&A down to $218m from $270m YoY, which is 22.4% of net sales in Q2 2025 compared to 33% of net sales in Q2 2024 (huge double digit % shift) • Operating income was $64.7m compared to a $22m loss in Q2 2024, also this is the first non-Q4 profitable quarter reported since 2021 • Net income was $168.6m vs. $14.8m in Q2 2024, and up from 44.8m in Q1 2025 • Adjusted net income $138.3m compared to an adjusted net income of $5.2m in Q2 2024 • Cash, equivalents and marketable securities were $8.7bn at the close of the quarter, compared to $4.2bn at the close of Q2 2024 • Bitcoin holdings were valued at $528.6m at the close of the second quarter, cost average revealed to be around ~$106k (total spend was $500m on BTC deployments by the end of the quarter) Some things to note Before I go into specifics, I want to note that while the standard comparison is YoY, GameStop’s decreased footprint from early 2024 (~20-25%) makes Q1 25’ results more of an apt comparison than Q2 24’ to judge continued business performance and growth. That being said, an 525% change in EPS YoY is nothing short of historic and incredible. The hardware and accessories numbers, similarly compared to Q1 25’, shows incredible execution from GameStop on the Switch 2 launch. Besides the incredible sales numbers for the console itself, the focus and effort by front line employees on selling accessories during the point of sale for the console cannot be understated. I expected software to lag a little from Switch 1 game sales being replaced, but Nintendo reported strong Switch 1 sales during the Switch 2 release period and in general even though Switch 2 software sales were strong, this is the only category that decreased from Q1 2025 but not by much. This strong software performance in the face of continued reduced software sales due to a move to digital downloads is still encouraging. It is a testament to both great execution and a strong line up of AAA + other games coming out across all platforms this year. Also want to note I appreciate Nintendo’s strategy of spreading out the exclusive Switch 2 title releases to boost sales for retailers. The three quarters-in-a-row of collectibles growth is insanely impressive. This quarter saw another 7.46% in collectibles revenue growth from Q1. All from retail card drops, huge uptick in graded slab sales online and other collectible sales like Funko. Powerpacks wasn’t even a part of this segment this quarter (beta only live for the last few days of the quarter), and I estimate that will produce ~$50m/mo in revenue in 12-18 months (with an obvious ramp up). Overall, the legacy business crushed it on all fronts this quarter. Worth noting that when Switch 1 released in 2017, the quarter after the release quarter was actually stronger when comparing YoY % increases caused by Switch 1 release. So I’m excited for Q3! Once again, the gaming release line up / pipeline (more hardware like ModRetro and Xbox handheld, plus lots of new software) is looking absolutely stacked. On the investment side of things, we finally know the bitcoin cost average. Already up ~5% on the initial deployment as of the end of the reporting period. Pretty solid contribution to the EPS thanks to FASB reporting rules for BTC. Despite many short term / short sighted traders labeling Ryan’s entry into this investment as a fumble, it is obvious from Ryan’s known investment profile that his time horizon for a deployment into a treasury asset for GameStop’s investment vertical will prove them wrong. Overall, GameStops investment vertical continues to impress (not even mentioning the cold hard cash generation from interest income), with the QoQ accretive changes on the balance sheet and the massive contribution to EPS. $8.7bn in cash and cash equivalents, $10.3bn in total assets on the balance sheet. QoQ Stockholders’ equity continues to increase. GameStop is firing on all cylinders. Thank you @RyanCohen and all of the people on the front lines in our stores and warehouses for an amazing quarter! The community also came together as always and really made the PowerPacks launch / continued collectibles growth happen. So thank you to everyone that’s always just so passionate and pumped about GameStop! GameStop has issued a warrant dividend to common stock holders. I am yet to do a deep dive into this offering but it looks juicy and I will post my thoughts soon. Power to the players 🚀
@foxenflask - bad robot
Note: This is purely a projection for the legacy business(gaming, collectibles) and the net profit quoted above doesn’t include any estimations of interest from cash holdings or otherwise any estimates from the investment vertical. All of that is just gravy ✌🏽
@foxenflask - bad robot
Running Q2 Earnings estimates for $GME - Hardware and accessories: ~$550m - Software: ~$215m - Collectibles: ~$220m Total Revenue: ~$985m Gross Profit: ~$274m Net Profit: ~$56m I will update these projections as new information continues to roll in throughout the quarter. But this is where they stand now. The numbers above are driven by a big boost from Switch 2, accessories and related software sales, and accounts for only a <5% increase in collectibles sales quarter over quarter. Getting damn near Q4 holiday quarter revenue numbers, so I’m getting really excited! I’m likely being a bit conservative in my calculations. Will be another record quarter regardless I believe. Looking forward most to that Free Cash Flow number, oh and Donkey Kong 3D coming out next month, likely going to be the biggest game release of the year!