reSee.it - Tweets Saved By @gbrumfiel

@gbrumfiel - Geoff Brumfiel

BREAKING: Satellite images and data obtained by @NPR show that Russia is draining a massive reservoir in southern Ukraine. At stake is drinking water for 100,000s of people, agricultural production, and safety at Europe's largest nuclear plant. 🧵 https://www.npr.org/2023/02/10/1155761686/russia-is-draining-a-massive-ukrainian-reservoir-endangering-a-nuclear-plant

Russia is draining a massive Ukrainian reservoir, endangering a nuclear plant Satellite data show water levels plummeting at the Kakhovka Reservoir. The reservoir supplies drinking water, irrigates vast tracts of farmland, and cools Europe's largest nuclear plant. npr.org

@gbrumfiel - Geoff Brumfiel

The data is pretty stark. Since late last year, water levels have been plummeting at Kakhovka. They're now at their lowest levels in 30 years. For perspective, this is like watching the Great Salt Lake in Utah empty out in a matter of months.

@gbrumfiel - Geoff Brumfiel

The drainage is so drastic that new shoreline is now emerging all along the reservoir. Satellite images from @planet show hundreds of meters of silty deposits that have suddenly appeared. (Pictured is a year-on-year comparison for consistency.)

@gbrumfiel - Geoff Brumfiel

This reservoir supplies drinking water to hundreds of thousands of people throughout Ukraine's arid south. It's also used to irrigate roughly half-a-million acres (200k hectares) of land. https://www.npr.org/2023/02/10/1155761686/russia-is-draining-a-massive-ukrainian-reservoir-endangering-a-nuclear-plant

Russia is draining a massive Ukrainian reservoir, endangering a nuclear plant Satellite data show water levels plummeting at the Kakhovka Reservoir. The reservoir supplies drinking water, irrigates vast tracts of farmland, and cools Europe's largest nuclear plant. npr.org

@gbrumfiel - Geoff Brumfiel

And it's the source of cooling water for the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant. If water levels fall much lower, the plant's safety will once again be at risk. The @iaeaorg was so concerned it put out a statement on water levels late last week. https://www.iaea.org/newscenter/pressreleases/update-145-iaea-director-general-statement-on-situation-in-ukraine

Update 145 – IAEA Director General Statement on Situation in Ukraine | IAEA iaea.org

@gbrumfiel - Geoff Brumfiel

To understand why this is happening, you need to look at the dam which controls the reservoir's water level. It's the Kakhovka Hydroelectric Power Plant. The plant sits on the front lines of the war, and since November, sluice gates on the Russian side have been open.

@gbrumfiel - Geoff Brumfiel

There's been a lot of speculation whether this is happening because of a controlled demolition by the Russians on 11 Nov. It is not. We know this because satellite photos from the day of the demolition (left) show the gates are closed (all images from @maxar).

@gbrumfiel - Geoff Brumfiel

Instead it appears that the Russians blew up the road over the dam and then used the dam's gantry cranes (pictured below) to raise the sluice gates about a day later. They've been open ever since.

@gbrumfiel - Geoff Brumfiel

Why are they doing this? @davidhelms570 (who has been tracking the situation very closely) believes that this is about damaging Ukraine's economy. "It's as good as knocking out the power grid," he says. https://www.npr.org/2023/02/10/1155761686/russia-is-draining-a-massive-ukrainian-reservoir-endangering-a-nuclear-plant

Russia is draining a massive Ukrainian reservoir, endangering a nuclear plant Satellite data show water levels plummeting at the Kakhovka Reservoir. The reservoir supplies drinking water, irrigates vast tracts of farmland, and cools Europe's largest nuclear plant. npr.org

@gbrumfiel - Geoff Brumfiel

Helms says Russia may be doing it in part because for years after it seized Crimea in 2014, Ukraine cut off its water. The water for Crimea comes via a 400km channel from this reservoir, and after the invasion Russia moved to restore its water supply. https://www.npr.org/2022/06/12/1104418128/russia-ukraine-crimea-water-canal

Russia has achieved at least 1 of its war goals: return Ukraine's water to Crimea Access to water for the Crimean Peninsula was one of the issues that led to the Russian invasion of Ukraine. npr.org

@gbrumfiel - Geoff Brumfiel

Helms says that over the summer, Russia filled reservoirs throughout Crimea. The same day the dam was blown and the sluice gates were likely opened, Russia's TASS news agency said Crimea now had enough water for 2 years. https://tass.com/russia/1535583

Crimea’s water reservoirs have enough water for two years — authorities In May 2014, Ukraine cut water supplies to Crimea from the Kherson Region via the North Crimean canal tass.com

@gbrumfiel - Geoff Brumfiel

On strange thing: as Helms himself points out, the reservoir supplies water mainly to Russian-held territory. "It just seems strange that they'd be doing a scorched-earth on territory that they claim publicly that they want to keep," @BrianKuns told me.

@gbrumfiel - Geoff Brumfiel

@BrianKuns Another possibility is that the Russians opened the gates to flood the lower Dnipro River and prevent a Ukrainian advance. A statement from the Zaporizhzhia Regional Military Authority earlier this week suggested that may be the motivation. https://t.me/zoda_gov_ua/16501

Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація Для ліквідації загроз на дніпровському каскаді необхідний міжнародний вплив 6 лютого відбулося позачергове засідання Державної комісії з питань техногенно-екологічної безпеки та надзвичайних ситуацій під головуванням Прем'єр-міністра України Дениса Шмигаля. До засідання долучилися перший заступник начальника ЗОВА Геннадій Тімченко, заступник начальника ЗОВА Віталій Сиволап та керівниця апарату ОВА Зінаїда Бойко. Комісія розглянула низку важливих питань, зокрема і про стан наповнення каскаду дніпровських водосховищ та можливі ризики для водозабезпечення Херсонської, Запорізької та Дніпропетровської областей. Учасники заслухали інформацію Міністра захисту довкілля та природних ресурсів, а також першого заступника начальника ЗОВА Геннадія Тімченка, інших посадовців щодо рівня води у Каховському водосховищі й можливих негативних наслідків у разі його подальшого зниження. У зв’язку з неконтрольованим скидом води на Каховській ГЕС, рівень води у Каховському водосховищу стрімко знижується, оскільки обсяги скиду… t.me

@gbrumfiel - Geoff Brumfiel

Regardless of motivation, the events at Kakhovka Reservoir will have major repercussions. Late Spring is when the water level is historically highest. There is very likely going to be a regional water crisis in this part Ukraine later this year. https://www.npr.org/2023/02/10/1155761686/russia-is-draining-a-massive-ukrainian-reservoir-endangering-a-nuclear-plant

Russia is draining a massive Ukrainian reservoir, endangering a nuclear plant Satellite data show water levels plummeting at the Kakhovka Reservoir. The reservoir supplies drinking water, irrigates vast tracts of farmland, and cools Europe's largest nuclear plant. npr.org

@gbrumfiel - Geoff Brumfiel

Many many thanks to @davidhelms570 for sharing so much knowledge that he has been spewing into the Twitter void for weeks. And to @tom_bike. Also my colleagues @JulianHayda, @connjie, @jsfenfen and @mererizzo who have worked really long hours to bring this story to you.