TruthArchive.ai - Tweets Saved By @jameslavish

Saved - November 29, 2023 at 1:36 AM
reSee.it AI Summary
The Reverse Repo Facility is a crucial part of the overnight lending market. It involves repurchase agreements between banks and the Fed. When banks need cash, they sell US Treasuries to the Fed and buy them back later at a slightly higher price. This is called a repo. On the other hand, in a reverse repo, banks buy US Treasuries from the Fed to generate a rate of return on excess cash. The NY Fed sets the Reverse Repo Rate, which is currently 5.30%. Recently, the focus has shifted to the Reverse Repo market as banks are swimming in excess cash. This is due to the massive injection of liquidity through QE. However, the Treasury has been draining the Reverse Repo Facility by auctioning short-term T-Bills. As the facility approaches zero, the Treasury may need to explore other options, such as adjusting capital requirements or modifying collateral rules, to fund its increasing debt. The future of the Reverse Repo Facility remains uncertain, but one thing is clear: the government's spending will continue, leading to the need for more money printing.

@jameslavish - James Lavish

The Reverse Repo Facility Lots of talk about how it's dwindling fast and may soon be empty...but does it really matter? Yes, it matters. A whole lot more than you may think. Time for a Fed 🧵👇

@jameslavish - James Lavish

🎯 Repo vs Reverse Repo What are they, and what're their differences? Put simply, they are two overnight lending markets run by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) All purchases and sales (open market operations) are made by the NY Fed Open Market Trading Desk (the Desk)

@jameslavish - James Lavish

The Repo A repo is basically a repurchase agreement between two parties The term can be used in many different types of transactions, but we most often hear it used to describe overnight transactions of US Treasuries.

@jameslavish - James Lavish

See, when a bank needs cash to cover short term obligations, it can sell USTs to the Fed (in return for cash) agreeing to buy them back just 24 to 48 hours later at a slightly higher price This is called a Repo or 'Repurchase Agreement'.

@jameslavish - James Lavish

The difference between the amount of cash the bank receives and the amount it pays back is calculated to be the 'discount rate', or the cost of ‘overnight’ borrowing from the Fed It looks like this: https://t.co/mMSl0WtUDG

@jameslavish - James Lavish

So, if there is a lack of liquidity in the system, banks may be looking to loan their US Treasuries to the Fed for cash to cover short-term needs Got it.

@jameslavish - James Lavish

But what if there's too much cash in the system, and banks who are looking to generate interest on that cash aren't able to buy any more USTs, because they're at their internal and/or Fed-mandated limits? Well, that's where the *Reverse* Repurchase Agreement comes into play.

@jameslavish - James Lavish

The Reverse Repo Much like the repo transaction, where a bank sells US Treasuries to the Fed, in a *Reverse Repo*, the bank buys US Treasuries from the Fed But why would they do this?

@jameslavish - James Lavish

Simple. When a bank has too much cash on its balance sheet, it can utilize the reverse repo to generate a rate of return on that cash in the overnight market In essence, the bank *parks* its cash at the Fed.

@jameslavish - James Lavish

And so, like a mirror image of the repo, the Reverse Repo looks like this: https://t.co/NJKm720KfC

@jameslavish - James Lavish

An important key here is that the NY Fed sets the Reverse Repo Rate And as you can see here, the rate is currently 5.30% Remember this number, we will come back to it in a bit. https://t.co/PodJOt5U1H

@jameslavish - James Lavish

🔍 Filling the RRF Another thing you may have noticed recently is that we are hearing precisely nothing about the Repo market lately Why? Because virtually nobody is using it. https://t.co/YxRodee6Zw

@jameslavish - James Lavish

The reason for this is that the major banks are not strapped for cash, but rather swimming in it And so, all the focus and action has been in the Reverse Repo markets But how did this happen? Why are these banks swimming in, stuffed to the gills with, all this cash?

@jameslavish - James Lavish

You got it QE (almost infinity) in 2020 and 2021 See, when the Treasury and the Fed teamed up to 'inject liquidity' into the markets, they hit the banks with something of a cash tidal wave.

@jameslavish - James Lavish

Turns out that when you print and purchase over $5.8T of securities from banks and put those securities on your own balance sheet in return for floods of cash... https://t.co/TEEfxWcaFr

@jameslavish - James Lavish

...you wind up creating massive excess cash balances at the banks, who then in turn, wind up eventually parking it back at The Fed in the Reverse Repo Facility. Look at what also happened between 2021 and the end of 2022: https://t.co/oNnn2PaQaQ

@jameslavish - James Lavish

The Fed then pays the bank the current Fed Fund influenced Reverse Repo Rate as a yield on those balances Which, as you can see the Reverse Repo Operations Schedule above, is 5.30% (annualized) yield this week What a deal!

@jameslavish - James Lavish

But that $2.4T of Reverse Repo Facility balances has been falling recently and is now down quite a bit. But why? Where's all the excess cash going?

@jameslavish - James Lavish

✍️ Draining the RRF Again, unless you've been completely ignoring all news and media (good for you, seriously), then you've likely also noticed that there's been quite a bit of talk about the expanding US deficit and ballooning US debt this year.

@jameslavish - James Lavish

This phenomenon is called the Debt Spiral, and it's apparent mathematically that we have already entered one If you want to know more about that you can read all about it in a thread posted over a year ago, right here: https://x.com/jameslavish/status/1562078782453792768?s=20

@jameslavish - James Lavish

If you’ve never heard of a *debt spiral*, it’s time you did, and ask the question, "is the US already in one?" Let’s dig in and answer that. A debt 🧵👇

@jameslavish - James Lavish

Bottom line, the US is spending too much compared to the amount of productivity and taxes it is (read: its citizens and companies are) generating, and this excess spending is causing the need for the Treasury to borrow more and more... ...and more.

@jameslavish - James Lavish

So, they've been covering the deficit with auction after auction of bonds, just papering over the spending problem. https://t.co/RRfIHnTzdu

@jameslavish - James Lavish

But because interest rates are now significantly higher than when the Treasury started to flood the market with USTs, they've been leaning hard on the short end of the yield curve Notice the steep pickup in T-Bill issuance this year, surpassing even the shock of March 2020: https://t.co/zqaVwR99T2

@jameslavish - James Lavish

The Treasury has pivoted to short-term T-Bill auctions for two reasons 1) To avoid locking into long-term high interest rates which would exacerbate the deficit and interest expense 2) They can tease capital back out of the Reverse Repo with yields slightly higher than 5.3%

@jameslavish - James Lavish

So, how are they doing with that plan? It seems swimmingly well In fact, the Treasury has drained ~$1.5T from the Reverse Repo Facility in just the last few months. https://t.co/ncPorAlOB5

@jameslavish - James Lavish

The Treasury's Q4 refunding plan reiterated they would continue this, and they're OK with staying well above a normal ratio of ~20% T-Bills and 80% Bonds In fact, the Treasury has effectively inverted this ratio, auctioning ~65% T-bills and ~35% Bonds this past year.

@jameslavish - James Lavish

Using the Treasury estimated $1.5T+ of upcoming auctions between now and the end of the first quarter of 2024, it seems the Reverse Repo will soon be drained But if the Treasury keeps the same pace of auctions as the last couple of months, the RRF could be drained by January.

@jameslavish - James Lavish

Either way, it appears that is the direction the Treasury is headed, and the RRF will, in fact, soon be back to zero Then, the only backstop is investors continuing to move cash into money markets because of attractive yields But when rates start to fall, then what?

@jameslavish - James Lavish

🧠 Where will the Treasury Turn? With the gov't running $2T annual federal deficits, the Treasury simply cannot stop issuing debt And this is *before we hit a recession* and the deficits *increase*.

@jameslavish - James Lavish

Where will the Treasury turn for even *more* capital? Can they just issue longer term bonds instead?

@jameslavish - James Lavish

If you've been following me, you know that the last Treasury 30-yr bond auction was abysmal, signaling a steep drop-off in demand and confidence in long-term US Treasuries If you've not yet read about that, you can find a thread on it right here: https://x.com/jameslavish/status/1724541356113264691?s=20

@jameslavish - James Lavish

Abysmal. Disastrous. Catastrophic. All terms you may have heard describing the most recent US Treasury Bond auction. But how bad was it? Did it really almost fail? Time for a Treasury 🧵👇

@jameslavish - James Lavish

TL;DR: international and institutional demand fell off a cliff this past auction, and the Treasury may have difficulty growing the sizes of auctions necessary to meet demand when they need to move further out on the yield curve.

@jameslavish - James Lavish

When the Reverse Repo Facility is drained and the Treasury can no longer use that excess capital to fund additional debt, they may have to turn to more drastic measures, such as...

@jameslavish - James Lavish

• Adjusting Capital Requirements The Fed and regulatory agencies could lower the capital requirements for banks This means banks would need to hold less capital against certain assets, freeing up more funds for investment, including in longer-term Treasury bonds.

@jameslavish - James Lavish

• Modifying Collateral Rules The Fed could alter the rules regarding what types of collateral can be used in various Fed lending facilities, which might encourage more purchases of Treasury bonds.

@jameslavish - James Lavish

• Tweaking Regs Regulatory changes could be made that *require* financial institutions to hold more long-term Treasuries I.e., changes could be made to the liquidity coverage ratio (LCR) requirements to encourage or require holding longer-term government securities.

@jameslavish - James Lavish

Additional options may include some sort of stealth injection of capital into banks or the markets in order to ensure sufficient liquidity for debt auctions Think: four letter acronyms like the BTFP or similar programs they can and I expect they will implement.

@jameslavish - James Lavish

Then, of course, we have the upcoming 2024 Treasury Regular Buyback Program What this is and how it will be used remains to be seen, but this could act as a quasi-yield curve control or *stealth QE program* We will see...

@jameslavish - James Lavish

Any way you cut it, the RRF lifeline is dwindling and soon ending Your guess as to where the Treasury turns and what exactly they end up doing is as good as mine, but I watching Treasury auctions and the debt markets carefully.

@jameslavish - James Lavish

Because one thing we can be absolutely sure of... The government is not going to stop or even slow down spending any time soon, and they will eventually have little choice but to print more money.

@jameslavish - James Lavish

And then? The Reverse Repo Facility will just be filled right back up again. What a deal, indeed.

@jameslavish - James Lavish

This thread is a summary of a recent issue of 💡The Informationist, the free newsletter that simplifies one financial concept for you weekly. You can join 25K readers here: http://jameslavish.com https://t.co/Ad4cmlVj29

Saved - November 10, 2023 at 6:37 PM
reSee.it AI Summary
Treasury auctions provide insights into the US financial system. Auctions involve various types of bonds, such as T-Bills, Notes, and Treasury Bonds. Individuals can place non-competitive bids, while institutions can place competitive bids. The auction process involves accepting non-competitive bids first, followed by a Dutch auction for the remaining amount. Metrics like Bid to Cover ratio and the high yield (stop price) indicate auction strength. A negative tail is favorable, while a failed auction is catastrophic. To prevent failure, the Fed can adjust SLR requirements or issue more short-term notes. Monitoring these auctions can offer clues about liquidity crises. Consider diversifying investments with hard monies like gold, silver, and Bitcoin.

@jameslavish - James Lavish

Treasury auctions can give us clues to the health or problems of the entire US financial system. But what are those clues and how can you tell? Time for a Treasury 🧵👇

@jameslavish - James Lavish

👋 Auction Terminology First, this is about auctions by the US Treasury, selling bonds to finance US public debt They have various maturities and names Let's walk through them...

@jameslavish - James Lavish

• T-Bills are shorter than 1yr • Notes are shorter than 10yrs • Treasury Bonds are longer than 10yrs • and Treasury Inflation Protection Securities (TIPS) and Floating Rate Notes (FRNs) have various maturities

@jameslavish - James Lavish

*Some slang clarification* These can all be referred to as 'bonds', but traders never refer to anything above 10-years as a 'note'

@jameslavish - James Lavish

Treasury auctions occur regularly, and ~300 public auctions are held each year You can see here, the US Treasury has auctioned about $11.2T of bonds in 2022, so far... Big business. One that needs a lot of demand to keep this whole debt charade going.

@jameslavish - James Lavish

Let’s clarify some definitions and rules to better understand what happens during an auction First, to participate directly, a bidder must have an established account Institutions use TAAPS (Treasury Automated Auction Processing System), individuals use a TreasuryDirect account

@jameslavish - James Lavish

Individuals can only place *non-competitive* bids, where they agree to accept whatever discount rate (yield) is set by the auction Institutions can place either non-competitive or *competitive* bids, where the bidder specifies an interest rate they are willing to accept.

@jameslavish - James Lavish

Institutions can also trade in advance of an auction, and then settle with each other when the auction happens This is called the *when-issued* market and is pretty important to our discussion, so we’ll talk more about that in a bit Back to the auction itself...

@jameslavish - James Lavish

Once an auction begins, the Treasury first accepts all non-competitive bids and then auctions off the remainder of what it's looking to raise This is where competitive bidders are unsure whether they'll be filled at their price The process is called a *Dutch auction*

@jameslavish - James Lavish

For example: Say the Treasury wants to raise $100 million in 10-year Notes with a 4% coupon And say it receives $10 million of non-competitive bids The Treasury first accepts all these non-competitive bids and reduces the amount left for the Dutch auction to $90 million

@jameslavish - James Lavish

If it then receives the following competitive bids: • $25 million at 3.88% • $20 million at 3.90% • $30 million at 4.0% • $30 million at 4.05% • $25 million at 4.12% The bids with the lowest yield will be accepted first and then ascend up until the auction is filled.

@jameslavish - James Lavish

Here, the Treasury needs to raise $100 million It first accepts $10 million of non-competitive bids, then all competitive bids up to 4.0% ($75 million), then $15 million of the 4.05% bids for $90 million total So, those who bid 4.05% would receive half of their orders filled.

@jameslavish - James Lavish

At auction's end, all bidders receive the same yield at the highest accepted bid In this case, $100 million of Treasuries were auctioned off at 4.05% On the face of it, this looks pretty bad, as the Treasury had to offer a higher yield to raise its target amount.

@jameslavish - James Lavish

But how bad? And how can we tell? Good questions and the answer—per usual with Wall Street—lies in the expectations of pricing Let’s turn to the metrics of an auction next to find out how.

@jameslavish - James Lavish

🤨 The Good, the Bad, and the Ugly *Bid to Cover Ratio* One of the first things traders look at is the Bid to Cover ratio (often referred to as BTC) A simple statistic, this is just the total amount of bids received divided by the amount of bonds sold at an auction.

@jameslavish - James Lavish

In the case above, the total bids amounted to $140 million and the auction was for $100 million of Notes, so the BTC ratio would be 1.4x

@jameslavish - James Lavish

Like many stats, what we're often looking for is changes from prior periods Is the BTC ratio rising or falling? And how rapidly? If market liquidity is drying up, this would be a good first indicator. If it drops low enough, it’s a major red flag More on that in a minute.

@jameslavish - James Lavish

Looking at the release of stats from last week’s US 10-year Note auction, we can see at the bottom, in the footnotes, that this auction had a 2.37 BTC ratio

@jameslavish - James Lavish

And looking at recent 10-year Treasury Note auctions, we see this is largely in line with the BTC we have been seeing, so no red flags here. (h/t Bloomberg Professional)

@jameslavish - James Lavish

The High Yield Another, usually much more important, metric to keep an eye on is the *stop price*, aka the *high yield* (see in press release above)—the actual yield received by bidders in the auction Two things we're looking for here...

@jameslavish - James Lavish

Remember how we said these securities trade in a when-issued market before and leading up to an auction? This creates what is called the *snap price* It sets the price expectations for an auction and is a critical piece of information for investors.

@jameslavish - James Lavish

First, was the auction overbid or underbid? In overbidding, the stop (high yield) is lower than the snap (when issued yield), and this is usually seen as a solid auction With underbidding, the stop is higher than the snap, indicating a weak auction.

@jameslavish - James Lavish

To put it simply, the snap (when-issued) tells us how the bond traded leading up the auction, and the stop (high yield) tells us how strong the auction was itself.

@jameslavish - James Lavish

The Auction Tail Another thing we’re looking for with the high yield, and a bond-fan favorite is called the *auction tail* The tail is the high yield minus the bond’s when-issued yield If there is no measurable tail, we say that the auction finished *on the screws*

@jameslavish - James Lavish

A negative tail means that the auction went better than expected, with higher-than-expected demand But positive tail tells us the auction did not go well because the yield realized in the auction exceeded market expectations, meaning weaker-than-expected demand.

@jameslavish - James Lavish

Bottom line, the tail measures unanticipated Treasury demand shifts before auction The larger the tail, the worse the auction And if we ever see a tail in the 4, 5, or 6bp range, this would be considered disastrous in the bond world and mean things are breaking in US Treasuries

@jameslavish - James Lavish

OK, so now we know that a low BTC could be a red flag, an underbid auction can be cause for some concern, and a big tail is a big no-no But what exactly does it mean when a Treasury auction fails?

@jameslavish - James Lavish

😵 Total Fail Going back to the BTC Ratio, you may wonder what happens if Treasury holds an auction and receives fewer bids than face value of the securities they're selling This would mean the BTC falls below 1, and the Treasury failed to raise as much money as they expected.

@jameslavish - James Lavish

In the bond world, this is a failed auction and nothing short of catastrophic for the US Treasury So you may ask, with dwindling demand for USTs and active selling from Japan and China, is there a possibility of a failed auction soon? Why yes. Yes there is.

@jameslavish - James Lavish

But there are a couple of fixes to prevent this from happening, at least yet See, US commercial banks are still flush with capital, as the Fed is receiving over $2.3T of reverse repo purchases daily This is extra cash that banks sell to the Fed overnight to be paid interest.

@jameslavish - James Lavish

If you haven’t read it yet, I wrote a whole 🧠Informationist Newsletter about the repo and reverse repo market You can find it here, for free👇 https://jameslavish.substack.com/p/repos-reverse-repos-and-the-mystery?r=8di03&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=web

Repos, Reverse Repos, and the Mystery of the Overnight Lending Market Issue XI jameslavish.substack.com

@jameslavish - James Lavish

One fix is the Fed adjusting commercial bank SLR requirements to let them hold more bonds in lieu of cash or cash-like instruments Or, the Treasury could issue more short term notes and fewer bonds, allowing all this reverse repo money to be used in the auctions instead.

@jameslavish - James Lavish

But once that $2.3T runs out, all bets are off, and QE infinity is on.

@jameslavish - James Lavish

💰USTs vs. Hard Money Even though risk assets and hard monies like gold, silver, and #Bitcoin have been taking it on the chin with Fed tightening policy and the contraction of the money supply, these are safe places for long term capital preservation, IMO.

@jameslavish - James Lavish

That said, I would not pile into any one of these hard monies all at once I also would not have 100% of my investments in any one of them But I would start buying some at these levels if I had none yet.

@jameslavish - James Lavish

To be clear, this is not for a trade for me. This is for a long term investment and preservation of capital in the likely event that we see a major pivot by the Fed back to quantitative easing at some point in the next 12 to 18 months.

@jameslavish - James Lavish

That, and the highly likely long-term event that the UST is fully unseated as the global reserve currency, and all hard monies benefit from it In the meantime, I’ll be watching these Treasury auctions closely for clues of a pending liquidity crisis And now you can, too.

@jameslavish - James Lavish

This thread is a summary of a recent issue of 💡The Informationist, the free newsletter that simplifies one financial concept for you weekly. You can join 18K+ readers here: http://jameslavish.com https://t.co/xZ8kb953tU

Saved - October 18, 2023 at 5:26 AM
reSee.it AI Summary
Bond Vigilantes, originally coined by economist Ed Yardeni in the 80s, are investors who sell bonds to protest easing monetary and irresponsible fiscal policies. They aim to increase borrowing costs for governments and challenge the power of central banks. In recent years, concerns about fiscal policy, rising deficits, and inflation have led to a surge in long-term yields. The bond market is worried about the massive US deficits and the potential for the Treasury to flood the market with debt. As a result, Bond Vigilantes are driving rates higher, demanding higher returns, and potentially forcing a breaking point.

@jameslavish - James Lavish

Bond Vigilantes. If you’ve been following the markets, you may have heard the term *Bond Vigilante* recently. And how they've caused all this bond market pain. But are Bond Vigilantes really to blame? And who are these so-called vigilantes, anyway? Time for a Debt 🧵👇

@jameslavish - James Lavish

😡 Who are the Bond Vigilantes? If the term Vigilante stirs up images of Batman or Dirty Harry, then you're on the right track Though in this story, Bond Vigilantes may be more like John Wick in V for Vendetta when it comes to sheer tenacity and type of justice they're seeking

@jameslavish - James Lavish

The term Bond Vigilante was originally coined by economist Ed Yardeni @yardeni in the 80s A time where inflation was raging and rates were rising But not quite enough, according to vigilantes who were logging their protest towards easing monetary and irresponsible fiscal policy

@jameslavish - James Lavish

These large investors were selling bonds, driving up yields and, in turn, increasing the cost of borrowing for governments Legend has it that they were doing this in retaliation of the growing power of the Federal Reserve.

@jameslavish - James Lavish

The bond traders' actions were seen as a way to take the law into their own hands, since the Fed (the Sheriff here) was not adequately managing monetary policy itself.

@jameslavish - James Lavish

As you can see below, the 10yr UST yields drove higher and remained higher than the upper bound of the Fed Funds policy rate, eventually forcing the rates higher before they eased again. https://t.co/nsLVnBHK2P

@jameslavish - James Lavish

Flash forward to the 90's and vigilantes were back So relentless, Clinton’s strategist, James Carville said, "I used to think if there was reincarnation, I'd come back as president or pope ... But now I would want to come back as the bond market. You can intimidate everybody.”

@jameslavish - James Lavish

And intimidate they did. Look at how the 10yr held above Fed Funds for years here, until the Fed finally (sort of) caught up in 1995: https://t.co/kLzVYXGQ1c

@jameslavish - James Lavish

By the way, guess who was appointed to join The Fed by President Clinton in 1994? Would you believe Janet Yellen? That's right. She's been in the sights of the vigilantes before.

@jameslavish - James Lavish

No wonder she recently said 'she doesn’t honestly think that’s the case today' But rather, 'the bond market is reacting to strong consumer spending and a stabilizing housing market' For real? We'll come back to that one.

@jameslavish - James Lavish

But for now, Yardeni says the Bond Vigilantes are 'driving bond prices down and yields up, and sending a warning to Washington to rein in the deficit and inflation' After all, have you seen the bond market lately? Let's have a quick peek, shall we?

@jameslavish - James Lavish

😱 The Worst Bond Market in History Let's first point out that bond yields in the years from 2008 to 2020 were not normal In fact, there is nothing normal about ZIRP (Zero Interest Rate Policy), at all.

@jameslavish - James Lavish

Recently, analysts at BofA unearthed data to validate this point, showing how global long-term interest rates during 2008 to 2020 were the lowest in 5,000 years They even charted it out, and even though they left out a few thousand years, we will go with it: https://t.co/UasKQnHNv6

@jameslavish - James Lavish

Is it any wonder then, when the US printed trillions of dollars and inflation surged, the longer term interest rates followed higher with it? Looking at the aggregate bond market performance for the last 3 years: https://t.co/9pbxsVHp4Y

@jameslavish - James Lavish

And the TLT 20yr Bond ETF, down an eye-watering 50% from its highs in 2020. Pretty bad for the long duration segment of the Treasury market. https://t.co/FzIAzrZ10v

@jameslavish - James Lavish

And so, is it the worst performance drawdown for overall Treasuries in history? From the BofA Team again, going back to the early 1800s (ouch): https://t.co/x917VmMmDz

@jameslavish - James Lavish

But is it because rates were held artificially low for years, and now sticky inflation is causing expectations of the Fed raising rates higher? Or is it something else? Are Bond Vigilantes moving the markets? Are they, in fact, back, with Janet Yellen in their sights again?

@jameslavish - James Lavish

🤨 Inflation Concerns or Risk Premiums There are clues that the surge in yields of the 10yr and longer duration US Treasuries has much more to do with concerns about fiscal policy (Congress spending) than monetary policy (the Fed taming inflation). Let's see.

@jameslavish - James Lavish

First of all, there are plenty of conflicting signals coming from the economy right now, suggesting uncertainty with inflation and the eventuality of a recession These are lagging, mind you, so the direction of the data is more important than the absolutes right now.

@jameslavish - James Lavish

Even so, after some key economic data was released last week, Fed Funds futures priced in the probability of another rate raise before the end of the year being just 24.6% Futures are also pricing in 3 rate cuts before the end of next year, taking rates back down under 5%. https://t.co/r9FkLQboc9

@jameslavish - James Lavish

So, why on earth would long term yields be rising in the market? One clue can be found in the MOVE Index, a bond volatility measure that suggests as uncertainty grows, US Treasury total returns have fallen recently. https://t.co/vBn8d8QIEp

@jameslavish - James Lavish

Which is likely due to something called *Term Premium* This measure shows how much yield (above short term rates) that investors are demanding to buy a bond Looking at the 10yr UST Term Premiums, we can see investors now want to be compensated for uncertainty in yields ahead: https://t.co/xfbPimoBjP

@jameslavish - James Lavish

So, even though Fed Funds futures are showing lower rates next year, the 10yr has been rising Why? Well, when you factor in this: https://t.co/w6KFgmc9UR

@jameslavish - James Lavish

...and this, where you see that federal deficits are now running over 7%, and growing: https://t.co/hjBY5BcTGp

@jameslavish - James Lavish

That's right US deficits are growing so rapidly, that we've just added another $2T of federal debt to the pile that now stands at over $33.5T total And over $500B was added in two weeks 😱 Good. God.

@jameslavish - James Lavish

And this is not slowing down, evidenced by the US Treasury recently expanding the size of Treasury auctions, across the board: https://t.co/wxxbhWJTaY

@jameslavish - James Lavish

To be clear, the bond market isn't worried about US defaulting on its debt No. The sincere concern is that the US is running such massive deficits that the Treasury will have no choice but to dump a mountain of debt onto the market Trillions and trillions and *trillions* of it.

@jameslavish - James Lavish

This means that not only will the Treasury soak up every available USD for investment, but investors will demand a higher return for the purchases. Why?

@jameslavish - James Lavish

Because they know the US must keep the charade going by either printing more money and monetizing debt (QE) or allowing inflation to run hot to create larger nominal GDP and hence higher tax revenue Either way, it means higher inflation and lower REAL return on those bonds.

@jameslavish - James Lavish

Enter the Bond Vigilantes. You can see here how the buying base for USTs has shifted to the players in the market who are actually price sensitive (i.e., Pension, Mutual, and Money Market Funds): https://t.co/fcBZmeDawo

@jameslavish - James Lavish

Also, the Fed is now competing with the Treasury by trying to peel some of those $8T of USTs off their own balance sheet from massive QE purchases in 2020 and 2021...

@jameslavish - James Lavish

And foreign demand is dropping with two of our largest buyers, China and Japan, now net sellers as they sell USTs to shore up their own balance sheets Commercial banks have massive losses from USTs on *their* balance sheets, (a la Silicon Valley Bank) They aren't buying more.

@jameslavish - James Lavish

Bottom line, it appears the Bond Vigilantes are back with a vengeance They may end up doing The Fed's job for them, driving rates higher and higher, until something in fact, breaks Or Congress somehow gets their act together and cuts back on ridiculous spending.

@jameslavish - James Lavish

I have my money on something breaking first Because, as Yardeni said just last week: the Bond Vigilantes are "not only saddled up, but they're on the move" And, once again, they mean business.

@jameslavish - James Lavish

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