@Engineer2The - TheEngineer2 π¨π¦
1/ Cleanup day. A summary of threads for things I've worked on in no particular order.
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6/ Some evidence that parts of the DARPA grant were carried out by the Chinese without DARPA funding
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7/ Showing the earliest official case is not related to the Huanan Seafood Market
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8/ Sorting out some errors and misconceptions in the published cases
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9/ Background on 51M the first Beijing case who was at a pharmacy near the market and onset of Dec 17, 2019
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10/ Sorting out and resolving some errors in various published papers
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11/ Information on the Shi Zhengli Chinese bioengineering research grant
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12/ Showing how the market case map closely reflects transit rail stops
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14/ A closer examination of which market case first infected the market. https://t.co/GMdIZv5jZM
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15/ Some details of the Ben Hu research grant. https://t.co/44D09VuFfj
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16/ Some details of the Ge Xingyi research grant. https://t.co/kJpCsiE4Z7
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17/ Some details of the Zhao Xuesen research grant. https://t.co/LPbO5sJbpF
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18/ Thread dismissing the Huanan Seafood Market as the origin of the pandemic. https://t.co/j3bGovvwPq
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19/ More up to date details and citations for 48F and 57F cases. https://t.co/CgY7oLWnLg
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20/ A partial list of WIV workers. https://t.co/N9h5SEwck2
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21/ A discussion of the Lineage A family cluster and the onset dates. https://t.co/FkClHpqLvk
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22/ The Huanan turtle vendors and relation to Liu Deyan clinic https://t.co/eaarXTyDkD
@a_kruschke - A.Kruschke
@Engineer2The @BillyBostickson @gadboit @mbw61567742 @gdemaneuf Counting 5 days of incubation time also for pat4, it's Dec 27th, where he was still in Shenzhen. The family was traveling on Dec 29th. Even a travel related (airport, taxi,...) infection is rather unlikely for pat4, as 3 days is a rather short incu time.
@a_kruschke - A.Kruschke
@Engineer2The @BillyBostickson @gadboit @mbw61567742 @gdemaneuf For the relatives other than rel1(baby at hospital), they all got I'll the same day, which points to a family meeting/evening meal with an infectious adult. The incubation time of the relatives matches best the infectious period of pat4 (yellow), less for pat3. https://t.co/F201CiYw1q
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@a_kruschke @BillyBostickson @gadboit @mbw61567742 @gdemaneuf There are other instances where onsets differ by 3 days. They mostly occur during husband/wife pairing like this from Li et al 2020. M49 and F48 are husband and wife. The increased exposure time likely shortens time to onset. https://t.co/1UgZsJVyZO
@a_kruschke - A.Kruschke
@Engineer2The @BillyBostickson @gadboit @mbw61567742 @gdemaneuf Do you have a reference please? Unfortunately, the problem with many papers is the lack of sound experience from field work.
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@a_kruschke @BillyBostickson @gadboit @mbw61567742 @gdemaneuf Early Transmission Dynamics in Wuhan, China, of Novel CoronavirusβInfected Pneumonia DOI: 10.1056/NEJMoa2001316 https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMoa2001316
@a_kruschke - A.Kruschke
@Engineer2The @BillyBostickson @gadboit @mbw61567742 @gdemaneuf Thanks. I'll have a look.
@a_kruschke - A.Kruschke
@Engineer2The @BillyBostickson @gadboit @mbw61567742 @gdemaneuf Nice study. I remember the figures. One of the first studies that provided useful epidemiological indicators despite the poor data situation. (Let's keep aside the affiliations of the authors.)
@a_kruschke - A.Kruschke
@Engineer2The @BillyBostickson @gadboit @mbw61567742 @gdemaneuf Agreed, there's one of the clusters with an incubation time of 3 days, but it's in the cluster 4. https://t.co/eGUPurDd2D
@a_kruschke - A.Kruschke
@Engineer2The @BillyBostickson @gadboit @mbw61567742 @gdemaneuf The yellow cases could be infected at the Wet market, too. https://t.co/qPRhJ7lQjb
@a_kruschke - A.Kruschke
@Engineer2The @BillyBostickson @gadboit @mbw61567742 @gdemaneuf However, the authors calculated the mean incubation time even higher. "The duration from illness onset to first medical visit for 45 patients with illness onset before January 1 was estimated to have a mean of 5.8 days (95% CI, 4.3 to 7.5),.."
@a_kruschke - A.Kruschke
@Engineer2The @BillyBostickson @gadboit @mbw61567742 @gdemaneuf This of course doesn't exclude the possibility of 3 days incubation time, but it is outside their CI. Possible, but rare, and therefore questionable.
@Engineer2The - TheEngineer2 π¨π¦
1/ It turns out that Ben Hu and Guo Li were on the October NIAD SARS conference call. Perhaps this isn't surprising as they are listed as a contributors in the DEFUSE proposal. https://x.com/WashburneAlex/status/1734783976689017107?s=20
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2/ Shown in @CharlesRixey Prometheus Shrugged substack is a complete list of the management plan and support team. Note that both Ben Hu and Guo Li are in the list and match the conference call E-mail list. https://prometheusshrugged.substack.com/p/deusexgaslight
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3/ I'd like to take a moment and highlight Xinyi Ge who is also on the conference call. He was the lead on discovery of WIV1 and always maintained a close relationship with his former lab at the WIV. (now in Hunan) https://www.nature.com/articles/nature12711
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4/ In 2019, he received a research funding grant for project "2019JJ20004 - Genetic Diversity and Interspecies Transmission Mechanisms of Coronaviruses." https://archive.ph/xc4Tk https://t.co/0fifO3VxiY
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5/ A paper titled "Interspecies utilization of mouse ACE2 as a Receptor for BAT SARS-like Coronavirus WIV1" followed the research grant. Note that grant numbers match. The submission date of the paper is December 9, 2019, with publish date of Jan 6, 2020. https://t.co/rOjcHtbd1A
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6/ "In the present study, pseudoviral infection experiments were conducted to compare SARS-CoV BJO1 and SL-CoV WIV1 on their ability of using human, civet, bat, mouse ACE2 and ACE2 mutants to enter cells." Zhengli Shi student Bingjie Hu in on this paper from Hunan. Why?
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7/ Interestingly, the Ge Xingyi grant title sounds very similar to the Shi Zhengli grant: "Evolutionary mechanism of bat SARS-like coronavirus adaptation to host receptor molecules and its risk of cross-species infection" https://archive.ph/XcS81
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8/ Did the Chinese pool their grant funding on this research topic? It sure looks like it. Why else would a WIV student be on a Hunan paper? It's a short rail ride from Changsha lab to WIV, so daily commute is possible. What else did they work on? This story isn't over yet...